Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 6, 2010; Aqueduct Toboggan and Gotham and Anatomy of a Bet: Santa Anita Handicap

The Turk uses a curious photo to kick off his Post Race Analysis today: Pictured to the left is a shot I took of Rail Trip nipping Dakota Phone at the wire in last year's Santana Mile at Santa Anita. Dakota Phone is a curious horse: 11 Place or Shows in 23 starts with 4 wins. On that particular day at the Santana Mile he closed furiously in the stretch and almost upset the unbeaten Rail Trip. He hasn't won in his last 10 starts but he's always around the action, finishing only a head behind the underrated Richard's Kid not even a month ago. He doesn't get much respect at the betting window, but I'm not the betting window. I know Dakota Phone likes to be near the action and this was a key in a very lucrative day for the Turk yesterday. Let's get after it!

The action began at Aqueduct with Races 4 - 5 - 6 and then 10 as well as Santa Anita Race 10


The day started off well in Race 4 at Aqueduct, a five horse edition of the Toboggan. My pre race analysis was pretty much dead on although I anticipated Custom for Carlos would be the bettors favorite choice but the savvy group that plays Aqueduct rarely miss a beat and rightly put Wall Street Wonder on the top of the tote board. An easy Tri and Exacta win came out of this race and I was alive in the Pick Three.

Did I say I was alive in the Pick Three? It didn't last long. Race 5 had my last toss out Goldsville winning and when I went back to the PP's I realized I dropped him for being a synthetic horse even though he had some dirt wins. No matter, I was dead and would have been deader in Race 6 as my first toss Spa City Baby won as a big longshot.

My Gotham handicap was pretty much junk too. I liked Wow Wow Wow but I knew breaking from the far outside meant expending alot of energy early. He did, took the lead and then got dropped like a stone. I always was surprised by Awesome Act being so highly regarded by the bettor's as about the only thing I liked was Leparoux up. As a handicapper, I study the carnage and then let it go.

After eating dinner I turned my attention to the race I was thinking about all day, the 14 horse Santa Anita Handicap with no clear favorite. To me that means big payouts. I've put together below the anatomy of how the winning bet was constructed. Betting is always a secondary thing for me. I build a base handicap which I list Pre Race and I assign arbitrary grades to each horse. I toss a certain portion of each field (In Red) and I try to build stratification layers of quality within the field. Generally the horses could care less and one RED Horse will inevitably break through and screw up the handicap, but if you are consistent and apply the principals week after week as your handicapping improves so will your bet construction. The two are symbiotic.

Anatomy of a Bet: Santa Anita Handicap



That is the type of bet construction I can only do in the peace and quiet of my own home or office and could never do at a track. I need solitude, I need my PP's and my google docs, and I need my handicapper's notes to remind me that I like Dakota Phone, that Neko Bay is never respected, that betting for the first filly in 73 years isn't a great bet and that I should build a handicap that could survive watching my first and third choices finish out of the money.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: March 6, 2010: The Santa Anita Handicap Grade I

That fine looking 5 YO Mare to the left is St. Trinians (GB),a fitting Turk chalk in a large but flawed field contesting today's Big'Cap. A win by St. Trinians would be the first ever by a filly or mare in the Santa Anita Handicap's 73 year history, a lofty goal for a gal winning N2X's in December. Keep your eye on the weather and the track conditions as it was raining at the time of this writing. The Turk, like many other handicappers and horse racing fans, has been wildly frustrated by spending hours handicapping Santa Anita Saturday Stakes cards only to find out the surface didn't drain and the races cancelled. I was equally dismayed to read the comments of the bankrupt track owner that he's in no hurry to end this disastrous experiment and return to the surface embraced by America, dirt. I love the Great Race Place but it kills me to handicap races and then hope the rain doesn't fall. It's too late, let's go!

Santa Anita Race 10 Post Time 7:38 ET: The Santa Anita Handicap Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on melting fibers and gunk that doesn't drain water well, for 4 YOs and Up.



St. Trinians (GB) is 9 of 10 in the money on poly tracks, 3 of 3 at Santa Anita and has 4 wins in last four starts. The 5 YO mare is trained by M. Mitchell with Rosario Up, a combination that hits 31% of the time. Trainer Mitchell also wins 30% of his Won Last Start starters but only 9% of Graded Stakes. A sharp two time 1 1/16 winner whose style is that of mid pack closer. It's never a good handicapping angle to pick a horse to do something that no one else has ever done so bet at your own peril. Me personally, I'm planning to bet to wheel several exotics and I just need the mare to finish Top Four.

Neko Bay is a classy Giant's Causeway son who has 5 Santa Anita wins but most on the old dirt surface. A nice Grade II win in early January and sharp training efforts make him a top four finisher for the combo of Trainer Shirreffs and M. Smith, up. Shirreffs Grade Stakes win rate is 40% and he's 29% in Routes and 39% in Won Last Starts. Good Stuff!

Speaking of not betting horses to do things they haven't done yet, Loup Breton (Ire) is an immensely talented turf runner trying synthetic for the first time. Comes in off of three nice efforts, two wins and a loss by a neck, has Gomez up for the Canali trainee. Canali's Turf/Synth hit rate is 32% and he wins 41%of the time he teams up with Go-Go.

I'm slipping Dakota Phone into the mix. Always overlooked and always capable of place or show, 15 of 23 in the money for the 5 Yo gelding.

With a big field I have Misremembered, Mast Track, Marsh Side and Jeranimo in the contender pile for one of the top four spots. About the only thing I haven't thought through is how deep and how expensive I want my exotics to cost me. Having 8 of the 14 runners here in the mix is overkill and too expensive a bet. I'll build what I call a matrix and I'll slot the horses out pretty close to my base handicap, with the horses in yellow good for Show and 4th mostly.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day December 26, 2009: Race 7,8 and 9 of opening day at Santa Anita

What an opening day at Santa Anita. The legend, John Henry, was memorialized in a lasting manner and the Champion Mare, Zenyatta, was paraded and showered with the love and praise of her fans. It's hard not to believe another bronze statue won't one day adorn Santa Anita Park in the image of this soul stirring warrior and it is encouraging to see that the fans do connect deeply with the stars when given the opportunity to see them mature in their fourth and fifth years. A problem seems to be our stars reach their zenith and then they are gone, but problems are for another time and another blog: I'm focusing on the positives of 30,000 plus fans on opening day and the good that Zenyatta brought to the Southern California racing fans. OK, Let's go!

Race 7-9 Santa Anita Park



In the Sir Beaufort Stakes, I thought the chalk was heavy and deserved and The Usual Q.T. did not disappoint. My handicap was pretty solid and I had the top five accounted for with one exception, the failure of Pleasure to Ride to finish and the final 1/8 that Gallant Son put together.

In the La Brea Stakes, I didn't have much going for me. I said pre race that I had the three Irish Bred's finishing last and when I got done with the handicap I knew that didn't seem right. It wasn't. Starlarks (Ire) closed hard and the horse I thought would add value, Pinkarella, didn't. I didn't like my handicap so I did what I suggest pre race, I watched the tote, looked for value, and I settled on some win bets, one of which Evita Argentina, got me back to almost break even for the race. The tote board was offering lots of value with these big field, beatable chalk, stakes races and for the bettors second favorite choice, she paid well and it was a good defensive bet.

And in the final stakes race, The Malibu, The Turk made his bacon. I was indifferent to M One Rifle or Misremembered, as I thought either would win. Again, the important thing about a base handicap is slotting of the horses, not always the exact finish. Where I did really well is identifying that the payouts on the Superfecta had a chance to be really good and I worked six horses into the mix, including Papa Clem and Square Eddie, who I thought just had too much class to not be in the top six. I backed Supreme Summit much higher then the bettors did, as he was the 11th pick of the folks at the windows and I backed him top four. Those decisions led to a nice win, exacta and superfecta payout.

All in all, a good day for lots of reasons, the least of which were a few winning bets, but more importantly, the momentum of two Breeders' Cup events in Southern California has paid some dividends, at least I'd like to think so for racing sake.

Have fun. This may be it for 2009, I'll be singing happy birthday to our 2 YOs next week and we start another Triple Crown trail. Very Good Stuff indeed!

The Nomination Is In: December 26, 2009; The Malibu Stakes Grade I; 7 Furlongs on Fake Dirt at Santa Anita

Friends, remember Ferdinand, the 1986 winner of The Malibu Stakes, today's featured race on opening day at Santa Anita Park. Mighty Ferdinand, 1986 Kentucky Derby Winner and 1987 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, killed in a slaughterhouse in Japan in 2002. Pray that something so horrific never happens again. Again, the Turk is backing a Baffert horse today, Misremembered, looking to give the Hall of Fame trainer his first Malibu win. Let's Go!

Race 9 Santa Anita Park Post Time 7:00 PM ET: The Malibu Stakes Grade I; 7 Furlongs on Fake Dirt for 3 YOs.



Misremembered is breaking from the one spot and dropping back in distance for today's race. His running style should put him near or at the front by 4 furlongs but make no mistake, this is beatable chalk. Coming off a strong two starts on dirt and makes his first start at SA. 3 wins in 5 starts on poly. 4 wins in 8 tries in 2009. The son of Candy Ride (Arg) should be no worse then Show.

Smart Bid is bred by Mr. George Strawbridge Jr, a man all Buffalo Sabre fans are indebted to for his financial support when the franchise was teetering, and a true horseman in every way. Comes in off a sharp 7f SA win in October putting up a 96 BSF in a 100K stakes. 3 Wins in last 7 starts for the son of Smart Strike. Watching the tote and think about a win bet >6-1.

M One Rifle is 7 of 7 in the money on poly with 3 wins. M. Smith up today for Trainer Headley. Training very sharply including a :34 second 3F work this past week.

My B Group are all capable of Top four finishes and several would not be surprise winners and only their current form is in question. Supreme Summit may be a bit of a stretch but is capable of 100+ BSF on the fake stuff.

Papa Clem and Mythical Power both enter off long layoffs. Mythical Power has been training very sharply for Trainer Baffert. Square Eddie I still don't know what to do with.

These opening day Santa Anita stakes fields have been an oddity to handicap and expect good payouts based on the uncertainty in the morning lines and independent analysis. I'll work a similar strategy as I plan for The La Brea Stakes, with 5 boxed Supers and then some exactas and win bets.

Have Fun, Turk Out!