The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Showing posts with label Rachel Alexandra. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rachel Alexandra. Show all posts
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 15th year of providing racing handicaps and warm hearted banter to people who never asked for it and most definitely didn't pay for it. I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for indulging me.
Belmont at the Big A. That's the silliest thing I've heard in a long time. Today's race is at Aqueduct, I'm not sure why they just couldn't say that. I'm not sure why Belmont construction couldn't avoid the fall racing season, but that's over my pay grade. The Woodward. When I first got into horse racing as an adult this race was at Belmont, but it wasn't until the move to Saratoga did I form lifelong memories of this race. Usually on the Saturday before Labor Day, it was a perfect opportunity to spend a last bit of summer at Saratoga, away from the stress of the day job: Rachel Alexandra, Curlin, Mine That Bird (a shadow of himself) and Harve de Grace. The race hasn't been so good at the end of Saratoga meet and I'm glad it came back to Belmont where it can be positioned as a Breeders' Cup prep, but this edition? Life is Good and four also rans. This isn't horse racings='s finest to offer.
What do do with something like this race? Don't play it. You're either a horseplayer or you are a fan. If you are purely fan, do what you like, enjoy the most dominant colt in training currently. If you're a horse player, box the other four in an exacta or put the four in the win and the field in the place box and hope for something whacky.
I wish I had more to offer you, but I can't make gold from straw. If you really want some action, don't bet Life is Good at all. Perhaps he has a bad step or doesn't seem right, I'm sure the Jockey instructions will be clear to protect the horse regardless of today's race. Now you got some value. The reality is longshots most likely Place, not Win. There isn't much to be gained except an Exacta with Life is Good to Win and Informative or Thomas Shelby to Place, the two horses I think most likely to be lowest odds on the board. If you must be right, regardless of the betting philosophies against this, single Life Is Good Over Keepmeinmind and/or Law Professor.
The Alabama Stakes is typically a highlight race for me at Saratoga. I've had conflicts with this weekend over the past few years and the last time I was able to be there for it, my son and his grandfather joined me in 2009 to see the absolutely gorgeous Careless Jewel win in a romp.
It looked like the sort of performance that could catapult the filly to super stardom, but it just wasn't to be and the second best filly of 2009 behind Rachel Alexandra was retired soon after.
Songbird, today's stupid-crazy heavy chalk favorite has skyrocketed to super heights already, winning nine straight and absolutely dominating all comers. Today's focus will be on figuring out if she can be beaten and by who, as well as just embracing the heavy chalk as a single and seeing who can bring value into the Place and Show spots on an exotic ticket.
Three Turk Generations at the Spa: Travers Stakes Day 2007
Today's race is not named after a person or a famous horse, but instead for the home state of William Cottrill, a former Confederate officer. The race track was trying to remember the efforts of Mr. Cottrill who is credited with helping to revive horse racing in the North following the American Civil War. Mr. Cottrill owned a farm near Lexington, Kentucky and bred a Kentucky Derby winner, 1884's Buchanan (Hale 2001).
Horse racing remembers. A few years back I was deeply disturbed when many of the Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park meet's races were renamed by the Stronach Group. I still don't like it and one of the most appealing things about horse racing to me besides the horses themselves is the tradition. When I look at this picture of my father and son, together at the 2007 Travers Stakes, it means something to me, it's my roots, horse racing roots, the thing that ties one generation of fans to the next. Imagine the hacks at the NYRA one day just deciding to rename The Alabama Stakes. I get heart palps just thinking about that. I'm sorry, I digress, and I just want to end this thought with this: Horse Racing Remembers.
I've been babbling a bit too much already, lets get after this race with a bit of video handicapping and then a peek at the fractions these horses are capable of. Let's get after it!
24 July2016 CCA Oaks G1 SAR 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt
16 July 2016 Indiana Oaks G2 IND; 1 1/16 Miles; Fast Dirt
20 May 2016 Black Eyed Susan G2; PIM; 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt
9 April 2016 Ashland G1; KEE; 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt
Just some simply dazzling performances highlight in these few videos. I could post all of Songbirds and what you see is complete consistency. The Weep No More back to front finish at KEE in the Ashland was one of the memorable races of 2016 already, but nothing really from her since.
The chart below shows a small sample size of races at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 of a mile. Surprisingly Flora Dora ran a similar speed in an OC $62K at BEL in early Julyas compared to Songbird'sSummer Oaks G2.
At 1 1/8 miles there was a shocking disparity between Songbird, with the next closest horse Flora Dora finishing 8 lengths behind based on 1/5 of a second per length. Songbird is often slowed in the final 1/16 and that skews the data as this girl has tactical speed and Hall of Fame Jock Mike Smith knows how to use it.
Songbird. I'm not sure I need to say much else. She won at SAR, she's 9-0 lifetime with $2.4 MM of earnings already, a 5 Time Grade 1 winner, a Breeders' Cup Champ, she's the complete package. If it means anything, she has the lowest Tomlinson Number at the distance with a 269. I expect her to soar.
Family Tree, with hot jock F. Geroux up for trainer Wayne Catalano, comes in off two impressive outings in the mid west, in the Iowa Oaks in June and the Indiana Oaks 2 weeks later in July. While the class in those races isn't terribly high, she was impressive.
Going for Broke is making a big jump in class for trainer Chad Brown who places Ortiz up. That combo has struck for 30% wins in 90 tries at SAR this meet.
Go Maggie Go is on a layoff since June 11, something trainer Romans only wins 9% of the time. A :58 4/5ths 5f bullet with 76 others in the workout tab on 12 August shows she's fit. Black Eyed Susan winner wasn't visually impressive and ran a better, but out of the money, Kentucky Oaks a few weeks earlier.
Flora Dora I think is too low in my base handicap. Blinkers On, this First Dude daughter has two very fast bullets at SAR this month in morning work, I'm expected a focused and possibly career best effort to get in the money. I'll be covering her from Place to 4th.
Weep No More had alot of speed to run at in KEE. She'll be running at alot of speed here too. I'm not expecting a repeat performance. No Place or Show finishes in her career yet. Feast or famine and she's in the deep water today.
I'm tossing Dark Nile at my own peril.
I'm leaning towards two very different bets:
Primary: Songbird singled with 5-3-4-7-2 covered from Place to 4th in some combination I haven't fully thought through yet. I don't think I'll cover that many horses in Place but a 6 OVER 5-3-4-7-2 OVER 5-3-4-7-2 $2 Trifecta will cost $40.
Secondary/Hedge Bet: Exactas with Songbird in Place and the 5-3-4-7 in WIN spot. $2 bet for $8.
I'd like to end this post by again saying that I think Arlington Race Track is a wonderfully run, fan friendly place that I highly recommend to my horse racing friends. They make it easy to buy tickets on their website and the track experience in the club seating is fantastic. I wish Illinois racing would get their act together and attract better talent with better purses, but you cannot beat Million Preview and Million Day at that track. NYRA could learn a few things about race track experience from the team at Arlington.
Many voices on the internet and the horse racing television channels are speaking out with passion about who is Horse of the Year. Occasionally this handicapper looks up from the Past Performances and has an opinion. I reckon I'm feeling opinioned today, especially after taste testing (for purely scientific reasons) some single barrel Jack Daniels Select. For the money, very very good.
How can the Veterinarian community not come to some agreement on what the proper use and need of race day medications is? There is hypocrisy at work amongst the Europeans who come to North America and begin to administer the drug, but I don't blame them, I blame the vets who can't work this out. No one ever blames the vets, well I'm blaming the medical community whose differing opinions created a rift that is hard to heal. I'm a hay, oates and water man myself and would gladly sacrifice the mindlessly overbooked claiming races run mid week to satisfy the simulcasting world and eliminate all race day medications. The debate can make a person feel ineffectual;I don't want the horses to suffer needlessly yet all over the World they seem to manage without these drugs. I need the folks who went to many years of college to sort this out.
I was at Saratoga when Rachel Alexandra won the Woodward and I thought "Horse of the Year" to myself. I must admit, I think Zenyatta did enough with the Breeders' Cup Classic to win the award outright. I'm not a fan of shared awards any more then I am a fan of not having a valedictorian because you don't want to hurt the other kids feelings. Rachel did great things repeatedly this year, but I think in one race Zenyatta topped her. The voters need to do their jobs and look at the body of work for both horses and make a decision they can live with. Both horses will be in the Hall of Fame and both will be spoke of in reverential tones for years to come. Rachel as a 4 YO at Churchill Downs may just pull the Classic off herself and then her legacy will most assuredly be considered greater.
We sure could use a few more rich folks in racing like Jess Jackson though. It's a real shame that Robert McNair divested himself from the sport. Cowboy Cal is still a nifty Graded Stakes horse.
The Larry Jones era ended with a whisper. He started the year with so many scary good animals but going out in spectacular style just wasn't to be for him. Let's hope the big cowboy gets back after it at a scale he feels good with soon.
Steve Crist has long been a beacon of useful handicapping information. At his blog this weekend was a great statistic to heed when considering shippers into a poly surface. According to Crist "...Horses who made their last start on the dirt were 0 for 21 at the Breeders' Cup this year, making the tally 0 for 43 in the two straight Cups on the synthetic track at Oak Tree, with 34 of the 43 finishing worse than third." The statistics he provided showed a 13 point BSF drop from the dirt prep to the poly Breeders' Cup effort. A compelling argument that I think you can apply to any dirt/poly angle on a horse that is unproven on the surface.
The Turk is still smarting after being sucked into "this horse must be good because he only lost to Sea the Stars by 2 lengths." I was shocked to see Mastercraftsman appear to be scared to go through a not so tight gap on the rail. I've watched the video and I know that's a tough horse but talk about stage fright at the worst time. Trainer O'Brien hasn't had anywhere near the success some of his European contemporaries have had at this two year run of turf form friendly Breeders' Cups. I think, like Mastercraftsman, we haven't seen his best for whatever reason (Salix makes you braver?)
Before I get called an arse, I know Rachel had a great year. I can't get past a 5 YO undefeated mare won the Breeders' Cup Classic and if I was voting, which I don't, as hard as it would be, I'd vote for Zenyatta.
With a bit of remorse, the meet at Saratoga and Delmar are all but over. As the days grow shorter, the temperature dips lower, and the horse racing world marches towards the Breeders Cup, the Turk turns his eye northward where some great racing takes place, Woodbine.
The Woodbine Mile, one of the highlights of the race season for me every year, is two weeks from today. The racing is top notch at this venue and I encourage readers of the Turk to pay attention to these Canadian runners or risk missing out on some high quality shippers into our American tracks.
Race 8 WO: The Vice Regent; 1 Mile on Ontario Turf for 3 YOs sired by Ontario Stallion
An interesting collection of runners enter this race, 11 horses in all. Most had some early success on poly track, some competed in the some very high level racing only to slip back and find themselves trying the turf for the first or second time. There is 17 turf starts in this group and 5 turf wins. So what does it all mean?
Costalivin, 10 of 12 lifetime in the money, tries the turf for the first time today, normally a big red flag, but gets my tentative chalk designation. Coming off a poly win at 7f, there is lots to like; Trainer Ross is clicking away at 29% win rate at WO this meet, his Turf win rate is 25%, poly to turf cross over is 29% and the combo of Jock Mcaleney and Trainer Ross hits at 67% clip this meet and 55% over past year. On the ugly side is Trainer Ross's zero 1st Turf wins. Last raced on 15 July, has been training well on Turf and looks to have been prepped for this race with a longer term goal in mind.
From the 10 gate breaks Parabola, 4 of 11 lifetime in the money and tied for the race high best turf BSF at 82. Freshened up after an early August race at 1 1/2 miles on Turf (which several of these runners ran in), he had a nice effort at 1 1/16 on Turf in early July, his last win. Trainer Minshall and Jock Sutherland hit 38% of the time this meet. Looking for a finish in top 4.
Mr. Foricos Two U has stumbled a bit since a place finish at the Queens Plate in June. The gelding with Jock Husbands up is a very high quality animal who maybe needed a break after a few grueling efforts, but instead turned in flat and fading efforts. The most likely post time chalk, I'll be looking for his quality to carry him into the ticket but a reversal of current form will be needed for a win.
A trio of horses fill out the next tier that will compete for a spot on the Super tickets I'm filling out. I think the best of the bunch for this race is Jet Set Exec. A turf winner, Trainer Black hits 28% of his turf races and does well switching between sprints and routes. Coming off a 6 1/2 furlong win on the Turf at Woodbine.
Me the Sea and G T and Paso Doble will be competitive as well.
I'm leaning towards a matrix of bet combinations, essentially a box bet, but I'll eliminate many of the possibilities and slim down the cost of bet significantly. As always, build a base handicap well before the post parade, watch the horses if possible, look at the tote board odds 5-7 minutes before post and make adjustments as necessary. Weigh the risk versus reward in your mind before placing any bet.
On an unrelated note, the Turk witnessed greatness yesterday with Rachel Alexandra winning the Woodward in champions fashion. Macho Again came hard at the filly and as they approached the wire it appeared that Rachel Alexandra began accelerating again. An incredible roar came out of the Saratoga crowd which reminded me that horse racing isn't dead yet.
When things aren't going your way in this game, and dry patches do happen, there's only one thing you can do: Work harder. Everyone need a process. Everyone needs a way to get back to basics. The Turk took a two week holiday break in early July and then struggled for two weeks afterwards to break out of a funk. While I couldn't take credit for it, yesterday I handicapped both the Jim Dandy and West Virginia Derby and I nailed both cold, Trifecta payouts. I felt relieved, but it wasn't enough, I needed a race I could blog and be proud of. I keep to my basics; I stuck to the information in the Deluxe Past Performances from Daily Racing Form, applied my red pen in search of current form, current work, class, distance and surface and the intangibles of Jock/Trainer stats and the horses In the Money percentage. It was this effort, and as always, educated luck, that lead me from the darkness and into the light.
Race 7 SAR: The FourStarDave Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 Miles on Good Turf for 3 YOs and Up.
The Turk bet multiple $2 Superfectas using my base handicap. I choose not to box because I didn't like Cosmonaut or Mambo Meister to finish on top of the ticket. Luckily for me, I built several tickets without Cowboy Cal on top. I was impressed by Justenuffhumor's PP. Again, educated luck. Build a handicap and work the handicap. I think the biggest stroke of luck was I trusted my gut and tossed Kip Deville.
The $2 Superfecta paid $1,639. The $2 Trifecta paid $345. Nothing sexy, just workmanlike.
Race 13 MTH: The Haskell Invitational Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on a sloppy and sealed dirt surface for 3 YOs.
Quick math told me I was on the hunt for small potatoes. I figured if I hit the Trifecta I'd return may 18 bucks. It ended up returning $12 dollars and change. I declined to bet but I did have the Trifecta nailed down. I was impressed by Munnings but he should stick to one mile or less and one corner, and Rachel Alexandra, wow! What a horse, she should have/could have been the Triple Crown winner.
The Little Turk is sitting here with me. He gets life better then most folks his age. He knows the difference between bragging and being proud of what you do. Dry spells happen to all horseplayers. Good days come to. Enjoy them without bragging.
It's hard to believe that one year ago that monster colt to the left, Big Brown, was stepping onto the last racetrack he'd ever menace, Monmouth Park, the scene of his last major victory in The Haskell Invitational. He was only the second Kentucky Derby winner to win the Haskell Invitational, the other being War Emblem in 2002.
Today's edition of the 42nd running of the Haskell Invitational, named for the former President and Chairman of the Board of Monmouth Park, Mr. Armory Haskell, features another feared runner who will go off at ridiculously low odds, the Preakness and three time Grade I stakes winner, Rachel Alexandra. She is challenged primarily by the Belmont Stakes Winner, Summer Bird, Grade II winners Papa Clem and Munnings, and the classy and now royal, Atomic Rain.
Race 13 Monmouth Park; Post Time 6:15 ET; The Haskell Invitational Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.
This is a handicap you'll have to tie to the weather very closely. The hour by hour forecast for Oceanport, NJ today shows some very severe weather around 3 to 4 PM with 40-60% precipitation most of the afternoon. You can find the track condition updated regularly at the Monmouth Park website.
I don't know how you don't support Rachel Alexandra to win if based solely on the numbers, trips and body of work. The filly has posted 6 straight 100+ Beyer Speed Figs and has trained very fast since her 19 length victory in the Mother Goose in late June. She also has the highest lifetime speed fig on an off track at 103. I'm hunting for exotics, so I will wheel, key or build a matrix around Rachel Alexandra winning and if she doesn't, someone other then this Turk will be happy.
The pace scenario for this race is hard to figure, but most likely Rachel Alexandra will go to the front or just outside and back of the pace setter. The seven furlong flash Munnings, coming in with back to back wins and 2 straight 110+ BSFs looks to strike the front early and bring some heat. Another who may press the pace is the unlikely top four finisher Duke of Mischief. It's a stretch but I'm leaning towards the speed sustaining 2 extra furlongs for Munnings and carrying him anywhere from second to fourth.
A strong collection of horses compete in this race, a notch below Rachel Alexandra, but fine Grade II challengers. Papa Clem I have fifth but could easily find the top 4. Atomic Rain and Summer Bird could easily flip flop around with Munnings.
Whats it all mean? Build a base handicap and then work your handicap. For me that means keeping Rachel Alexandra on top and inserting in combinations for the Exacta, Tri and Super. The overwhelming favorite that I think Rachel Alexandra will be with the betting public will make the needle on the risk/reward meter lean heavy towards risk. I'll take no more then 10-12 dollars and see if we can't make it into 50 or 60 dollars.
The Adam Coglianese photo is of Stormin Normandy, winner of the 2008 High Rock Spring Stakes at Saratoga.
Today's edition contains a couple of long time Turk favorites, Naughty New Yorker and Stud Muffin (Two names the Turk has tried to emulate to no avail.) While I think Naughty New Yorker is on the tail end of a 47 race career, Stud Muffin at 5 YO is still a threat and will figure in the tickets today.
SAR Race 7 Post Time 5:48 ET; The High Rock Spring Stakes $86,000; 1 1/8 miles on NYS Dirt raced by 3 YO and Up NYS breds.
I like Trainer Maker's Future Prospect. the 5 Yo gelded son of Freud is coming of back to back 100+ BSF races at BEL at 1 mile and 1 1/16. With Leparoux up today , he's 7 of his last 16 starts and 9 of 12 in the money on fast dirt.
I'm placing a claimer, South Fourth Street, in my top four. Winner of his last outing, an N2X on July 17th, I like the quick return to the track for him. He's six of his last 15 starts and has 6 wins in 19 starts on fast dirt. he seems to favor an off track, but I'm looking for a value horse to place in my top three and top four and Trainer Contessa clips along with wins 24% of the time after a claim.
Stud Muffin will be in the top four, maybe even the win spot. My placement is more of an acknowledgement from me I won't win this without some time of wheel, key or box.
Tommassi is coming off a place at 1 1/8 on dirt and is 6 of 23 on fast dirt. Tr. Bond/jock Maragh win at a 32% clip.
The rest of the field is legitimate and no real sure toss candidates in the bunch. I'll keep to just a few bets and we'll see what happens.
The Turk visited Saratoga on opening day. It was a real treat for me to meet some of my horse racing blogging heroes, real talented and pioneering horse racing blogger folks. While our sport may be in a decline, you could not tell from the crowd at the SPA. I shuffled down to the paddock before race three and got a good look at the horses I handicapped for Race 3, the James Marvin Stakes.
That's my chalk, Finallymadeit, who lead most of the race only to fade badly the last few hops. Congrats to Gold Trippi, who the Turk tossed of course. As there were two scratches, I declined to bet and just enjoyed.
Race 3 SAR July 29, 2009: The James Marvin Stakes: 7F on Dirt for 3 YO and Up.
Again I find myself scratching my head over Riley Tucker. It was an exciting race and it was nice to just enjoy it as a fan.
There is some great writing to be found at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance home page. Not only will you find Alliance Blogs, but a feed and a link selection to the best voices in horse racing all over the world.
Enjoy this weekend's races. Mine That Bird returns to action, along with Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra. All good stuff. Turk out!
Race 12 Pimlico: The Preakness Stakes Grade I; 1 3/16 Miles on MD Dirt for 3 YOs.
As the horses were loading into the gate, the SAT TV signal at Papa Turk's house disappeared. The 1930's descended upon us. Luckily, an upsurge in horse racing popularity put the race back on the local AM sports radio station for the first time in years, and I had the radio on and the station tuned in just as the gate broke open. Any disappointment I had quickly went away, as listening to the race call on the feed from the Horse Racing Radio Network was very exciting. Not once until the final furlong was the name Mine That Bird spoken on the radio waves, and Musket Man breaking free and chasing was something that was easy to visualize. I enjoyed listening to the Preakness on the radio very much and it created quite a memorable moment for all the Turk clan gathered together. It was a moment right out of Transistor Times as our friend at Equispace would say.
I think I had a pretty good handicap. I was disappointed to see Friesen Fire not show up again, but I was not surprised by the belly flop of Pioneerof the Nile. I thought Calvin Borel did the only thing he could with Rachel Alexandra, which was take her fast out the gate and try to be near the rail and near the front by the first turn. It was an athletic but tiring move and two more hops to the wire and I think Mine That Bird is shocking the race world again. Mike Smith had to do it the hard way, and that little gelding proved beyond any doubt that he has speed and guts. I'm already getting excited about The Travers, we could see a real showdown of horses coming off the mend and horses from this Triple Crown run.
I worked my handicap. It was a methodical bet I built off of what I laid out as the likely order of finish. I hedged Friesen Fire dropping and that paid off. I placed a premium on current form, and that allowed me to not seriously consider Big Drama. The Belmont is three weeks away and that is already setting up to be an exciting showdown. You have to wonder how many will enter, as 1 1/2 miles is a taxing race and any horseman takes pause about the toll his horse will pay just for competing in that race. For more up to the minute analysis and discussion of the Belmont Stakes, read the excellent blogs at the official website as well as take a look at the revamped and very professional looking Throughbred Bloggers Alliance homepage. Don't forget to take advantage of the TBA coupon for cheap PPs at the Daily Race Form. You'll find the coupon code at our home page in the banner on the left.
And while I'm providing you the video of the race, I must thank the Horse Racing Radio Network carried locally on WGR-550 AM Buffalo for saving my sanity yesterday by not denying me real time access to the event.
The Turk enjoys his work. For two weeks now I've been studying the past performances and video on today's contenders. It's a ritual I perform on almost all graded stakes races. The Turk likes to get a bit preachy about consistancy as a handicapper and I'm not wavering from that position. I saw lots of pictures after the Derby of people with the eight horse on win tickets. Great, enjoy your money, I wish I had one, but I didn't. Over the long haul, handicapping horses based on what the past performances reveal, what the morning work reveals, and what your eyes tell you when looking at past trips will bring you results. You have to have thick skin as a handicapper who publishes his picks as you don't get the luxury of recanting after the last hoof crosses the line. These Triple Crown races are hard races to predict, as the quality of the horses is top shelf and for the most part only intangibles seperate the best from the rest. If they weren't so darn complelling I'd only watch, but I'm OK with screwing up the winning results for days like today!
I do like my work. I can't tell you right now where the 3 YO Class of 2009 ranks compared to previous years. If I had to say now, I'd say mediocre. It's not a critism of the horses, more a reaction to so many good horses who fell off the Derby trail and the parity that was left behind. But then again, Mine That Bird pumped real interest into the proceedings and Rachel Alexandra has a chance today to blow the roof off of public interest. These are good things for horse racing, and horse racing can use some new fans.
Race 12 Pimlico: The Preakness Stakes Grade I; 1 3/16 miles on Maryland dirt for 3 YOs.
I'm working up my bet strategy right now, but I have a pool of horses, 8 out of the 13 starters, that I think could be in the top four. I'll narrow it down a bit and then start to fashion some logical exacta and trifecta bets. I like Musket Man and placed him in my top spot, but the reality is I might have put four different horses in the Win spot over the past two days. I'm going to listen to the handicapping rules I've learned the old fashioned way and work my handicap.
The Little Turk is feelin' General Quarters and Mrs. Turk digs Rachel Alexandra. This handicapper doesn't mind spending long hours only to lose to people who pick a number or name, I'm just glad to get to spend time around the animals I love.
