Post Race Analysis for Race Day February 13, 2010: The Sam F. Davis Handicap Grade III at Tampa Bay Downs

It's only fitting that a blog I started to enjoy horse racing analysis with my son, the Little Turk, that he provides me the inspiration to string a good exacta together for a nice win in yesterday's Grade III Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Little Turk turns 10 years old today and his handicapping skills continue to improve: With no concern for Beyers, T-Graphs, Raggies or Late Speed Rations he asked which horse had a legitimate shot at Place at a good price. He settled on Schoolyard Days. Good Stuff!

Race 10 Tampa Bay Downs: The Sam F. Davis Handicap; 1 1/16 miles miles on fast dirt for 3 YO's



The Turk clan had an engagement to attend yesterday so no time for intricate Pick Three betting, or more specifically, no time to blog about it, but The Turk was convinced that Rule was the real deal and that Uptowncharliebrown at 1 1/16 miles was not. I did exactly like I said I would do in my pre race analysis and strung two exacta's together, one with my base handicap and the other with The Little Turk's choice for place. It paid off a handsome $20.60.

The Derby trail is starting to take form. We'll be back tomorrow for a Pick Three at Oaklawn with the Southwest Stakes mixed in.

Happy Valentines Day friends and readers, Turk(s) Out!

The Nomination Is In: February 13, 2010; The Sam F. Davis Handicap; 1 1/16 miles on Dirt at Tampa Bay Downs for 3 YOs

While not a track I find myself playing often, the Turk turns his early eye on Tampa Bay Downs for today's Sam F. Davis Handicap. Five of the 366 early Triple Crown Nominees are in action including a few who have been making the Wire Players Dirty Dozen pool of Kentucky Derby Contenders. Good Stuff, let's get after it!

Remember to always make your checks: Scratches and Track Condition, Weather and Tote Board. The track website isn't updated at this moment, but I'm going to assume for now we end up with Fast Dirt and make some considerations for an offtrack as I go.

Race 10 Tampa Bay Downs: The Sam F. Davis Grade III; 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt for 3 YO's



I like the son of Roman Ruler by Fusaichi Pegasus, Rule in this race. Trained by T. Pletcher with J. Velazquez up. First race off long layoff, his last two races were top shelf 1 mile affairs, one on fast dirt and another in the slop and handled both well. Capable of early tactical :22 and change speed and his last race showed a competitive edge with a 1/4 mile duel for the Grade III win.

I'm going to back Middle of the Nite for Place but on a few tickets I'm going to take a chance with Little Turk's chalk, Schoolyard Dreams. Middle of the Nite comes in for a 2nd race off >45 day layoff, something Trainer Albertrani hits 26% of the time. I like Albertrani's Graded Stakes 28% stat as well. Schoolyard Dreams is a bullet working fiend with a nice non bullet work from the gate as well recently. Blinkers On today for Trainer D. Ryan and carrying 6 pounds less then Rule and 2 less then Uptowncharliebrown.

Haven't mentioned Uptowncharliebrown yet have I? Two races under his belt at 6.5 and 7f with Trainer Seewald who stretches out runners from sprint to routes for wins 7% of the time and is only a 9% route race winner. A morning line 2-1, he'll attract money, and maybe rightly so, but I'm going to take a stand against him and see what we can do. This is gambling afterall.

The rest of the field seemed pretty blah to me, with Silver Craft the best of the bunch.

Turk will be back later with some stakes racing and pick three's from Santa Anita. I'm off to see Little Turk do his thing at a karate tournament.

Have Fun, Turk Out!