Post Race Analysis: The Kentucky Derby

California Chrome: Andy Lyons/Getty Images (Thanks for Use)

I am first and foremost a fan of horse racing.  I am a Preacher in the Church of Horse Racing with a congregation shrinking faster the Donald Sterling Fan Club.  I give sermons on the good word of racing and I hope to turn one person a year into a real fan.  I'm never disappointed when my love of racing and my race track romances intersect with my handicapping and yesterday's California Chrome Kentucky Derby win was an intersection with an exclamation point.  

My Super High Five bet fizzled.  I had zero conviction in that bet and I ended up betting it straight (the stars would have to align) as I felt like straight had about as much a chance as the $200.00 matrix I had assembled.

I also got lucky with my betting.  I plunked down $10 Exacta Bets for California Chrome on top and the 5 biggest long shots 9-2-17-15 and 8 underneath.  $1,700 win on a $50 wild guess.  That's not handicapping, that's bet strategy and an understanding that long shots like Commanding Curve more often than not finish second.  I had conviction to single California Chrome in my bets. It wasn't a wise guy selection and people expect experienced handicappers to take positions on horses other than chalk.  Luckily, ye Ol' Turk doesn't give a flying f**k what anyone thinks of his picks.

By the way, handicappers better than I have been wondering about Commanding Curve all week. Steve and the Wireplayers crew are pretty savvy fellas.  I didn't see it at all. I posted the Louisiana Derby video below.  He made a nice run to Show and you could make the case he'd take Place or win by 1 1/4 Miles.




Kentucky Derby Grade 1




Louisiana Derby Grade 1



I hope you had fun and made some money yesterday!  Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 12 April 2014: The Oaklawn Handicap and the Arkansas Derby

Danza; That Just Happened!  Photo courtesy of AP

As I said in my pre-race handicap, I saw little upside in betting either of these races, and based on my handicap I was correct.  I'd like to delude myself that post race analysis can always make sense of the chaos, but nothing in hindsight could have or would have had me handicap Danza higher than I had him, which I had him 8th and the bettor's had him 7th.

What do I think of the results of the Arkansas Derby?  I'm not sure what to make of it really.  The video is below, draw your own conclusions, they are just as good as this idiot internet handicapper's.

As for Will Take Charge? Bettor's top choice for good reason, but I really liked Revolutionary's late run as something to build on.







Sometimes there is no answer to the Chaos, but in this case, there were warning signs to avoid a bad bet, and at least in that case, the best bet I made last weekend was avoiding both of these races.

Turk Out!