Post Race Analysis: The Kentucky Derby

California Chrome: Andy Lyons/Getty Images (Thanks for Use)

I am first and foremost a fan of horse racing.  I am a Preacher in the Church of Horse Racing with a congregation shrinking faster the Donald Sterling Fan Club.  I give sermons on the good word of racing and I hope to turn one person a year into a real fan.  I'm never disappointed when my love of racing and my race track romances intersect with my handicapping and yesterday's California Chrome Kentucky Derby win was an intersection with an exclamation point.  

My Super High Five bet fizzled.  I had zero conviction in that bet and I ended up betting it straight (the stars would have to align) as I felt like straight had about as much a chance as the $200.00 matrix I had assembled.

I also got lucky with my betting.  I plunked down $10 Exacta Bets for California Chrome on top and the 5 biggest long shots 9-2-17-15 and 8 underneath.  $1,700 win on a $50 wild guess.  That's not handicapping, that's bet strategy and an understanding that long shots like Commanding Curve more often than not finish second.  I had conviction to single California Chrome in my bets. It wasn't a wise guy selection and people expect experienced handicappers to take positions on horses other than chalk.  Luckily, ye Ol' Turk doesn't give a flying f**k what anyone thinks of his picks.

By the way, handicappers better than I have been wondering about Commanding Curve all week. Steve and the Wireplayers crew are pretty savvy fellas.  I didn't see it at all. I posted the Louisiana Derby video below.  He made a nice run to Show and you could make the case he'd take Place or win by 1 1/4 Miles.




Kentucky Derby Grade 1




Louisiana Derby Grade 1



I hope you had fun and made some money yesterday!  Turk Out!

The Turk's Derby Dozen Final Rankings, Prep Race Video Review and Post Draw

Stupid Blogger!

We've been watching these Three Year Old's here at Turk Central all winter and I think I have a feel for the best of the bunch.  So many good runners didn't make it this far and this group of 20 entrants seems a bit weak after the top 12. None of that really matters when the gate goes open, but this this idiot handicapping blogger will be on the hunt for the Super High Five as a bettor, and if I can win that, I'm always happy if a good story line wins the race.

I've got California Chrome on top of my list and I'm pretty darn sure he'll be post time chalk.  Most likely I'll single him and then build my exotic bets out from there.  
After the video I collected is the Post Positions and Morning Lines.  It looks like Vinceremos at 30-1 (10th on my list) represents a chance to sneak a bit of value into my bets.

I'll be reviewing workouts this week and start to form a handicap by tomorrow night.

Have fun with it friends.  Turk Out!







Santa Anita Derby




Arkansas Derby





Louisiana Derby




Florida Derby



Sunland Derby



Bluegrass Stakes



Wood Memorial

Post Race Analysis for Raceday 5 April 2014: The Wood Memorial, Carter Handicap and Santa Anita Derby

Hold all Tickets

We've all been at the track and torn up our tickets in disgust after our bets went awry. It's such a visceral thing to dispose of the physical evidence of our missteps. Speaking for myself only, I have race track superstitions and I don't like the losing tickets to be in my pockets or even at my feet as they personify failure. That said, there is always something to be learned from your bets as well as the handicaps. Today I'm just focused on how well my base handicap was.

I had a strong Wood Memorial handicap with the exception of Wicked Strong. Yes, that's loser talk, but the fact is I had four of top five and I had Harpoon and Wicked Strong flip flopped. I expected Harpoon to fire and he never did and I'm not sure I would have ever put Wicked Strong in the win spot based on his Past Performances. I should possibly have respected Jerkens more, knowing he would not have put the horse in that spot without a reason. It's a gray area for me, more guessing than handicapping, but I lost and I'll add to my files and look for the pattern to repeat in the future as these trainer tendencies also repeat. I will say I am very excited anytime a Hard Spun does well, and check out the stride over the last 1/16 of a mile. His father was one tough SOB, we'll see what he's made of. Social Inclusion? good horse, but great, I don't think so. I am impressed by Samraat: gutty and tough, perhaps not a classic distance guy but he will win races. Pretty cool to have a few good 3 YO New York Breds right now.

My Carter Handicap was eh: I would not have picked Dads Cap. I was high on Sahara Sky, not all all interested in the chalk, Clearly Now. I loved Sahara Sky's chase but he needed another panel and there were only 7. I expected lots more from Central Banker too. This info gets filed away for next time out thoughts.

The Santa Anita Derby was California Chrome's shining moment. I liked Hoppertunity, still do, and I'm not sure what to make of Candy Boy yet. The rest of the field was pitiful and the bettors knew it.





Wood Memorial G1



Carter Handicap G1




Santa Anita Derby G1



and while not blogged, the Princess returned....

Cat Clay



Anyways, have fun friends, Turk Out!