Post Race Analysis of Eddie Reed at Del Mar and Diana at Saratoga

Lady Eli up to win The Diana

Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk Post Race Analysis.

Handicapping for these two races was not complicated and in many ways very similar.  Both had what should have been overwhelming favorites taking on slightly lesser competition.  The Chalks went into the gate at $0.95 to $1 for Lady Eli and $0.70 to $1 for Ashleyluvssugar.  It was tee'd up for the classic single the heavy chalk and find value in Place and Show -OR- Beat the favorite and watch the payouts go big (See Arrogate in the San Diego).  Speaking of Arrogate, The Turk said pre-race he really hates the returning from Dubai first race back angle.  I find it's almost as bad (with smaller sample size) than the first race back after Breeder's Cup.  These big events take a toll.

I said Lady Eli would win that race 90 out of 100 times.  I still believe that.  I said Lady Eli, Antonoe, Dickerson and Quidora would be 1-4 on the tote board and they were.  My handicap could have easily netted a $22.20 exacta and $66.50 Trifecta.

It's so rare to see a horse break through the gate and then run well.  Lady Eli really impressed me today.  I'll be curious where Antonoe is pointed next as I'm still high on the physically big filly.

In the Eddie Reed, my real coup was where I rated Mr. Roary.  I thought he'd be Place or Show and he was, while the betting public had her sixth out of 7th.  It's that sort of edge that separates you from the public and gives you an opportunity to make money in this game.   My handicap would have given you the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta.  The $2 Superfecta paid $485.60.

Ashleyluvssugar is an inconsistent runner who Stevens usually gets the most out of.  Overbet, but the field didn't exactly lend itself to confidence in the other runners.  Hunt (Ire) and Mr. Roary should be added to virtual stables and kept tabs of.







Have fun with the races friends.  I'll be back with Tuesday's $500,000 Prince of Wales Stakes from Fort Erie.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Eddie Reed at Del Mar

Del Mar

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

It took me less than 24 hours to be a liar in this blog.  I said I wasn't playing Del Mar this summer, I couldn't resist dipping my toe in the surf with the Grade 2 Eddie Reed, 9 panels over a route of grass.  While most eyes will be on The San Diego and the return to North American racing for Arrogate, this older turf event is more my speed.  I'm not sure how I'd play Arrogate today anyway: I typically always bet against horses on first effort back from Dubai but I don't think I'd do that here.  Regardless,  lets take a look at Race Four and focus on this task at hand.

Let's get it on!

Only two last race winners in the gate today:  Mr Roary won an OC62K wire to wire over firm turf at 1 1/4 miles and Ashleyluvssugar in the Grade 2 Charles Whittingham.





In the 1 Mile American Stakes at Santa Anita, Kenjisstorm showed me nothing even with a great rail trip ride, while Hunt (Ire) was really rolling the last panel.  Can he run contrary to a 266 Tomlinson?






On paper, Ashleyluvssugar is the only legitimate graded stakes runner in this bunch.  With Steven up, this horse has shown the ability to rate and have a late turn of foot to finish off the competition.  I expect that today.

So who will Ashleyluvssugar be rallying against?  I've got a deep group of four with little differentiating them.

Mr Roray I considered tossing at first look but upon reflection this 2nd effort off 180 day layoff (which Trainer Papaprodromou is 0 of 4 at this past year) is a cut back of 1/8 mile and this very classy Scat Daddy 4 YO seems very undervalued.

Hunt (Ire) goes blinkers on this race.  As I previously said, I loved his closing speed against the pace in the American.  Is that who he is?  Zero of four at Del Mar and Zero of 2 at the distance.

Kenjisstorm gets Bejarano up today, and Jock/Trainer Baltas are 27% winners on 30 starts at DMR,
Makes class jump from N3X/Claimers.

Abbey Vale (Ire) is a first time claim run for Trainer Doug O'Neill,  O'Neill's barn wins 20% of these in 46 claims over past year.

In consideration for Show or 4th is Up With The Birds.

At first blush I'm thinking Trifecta based on Ashleyluvssugar singled and Exacta with Ashleyluvssugar in both spots.  

$2 Trifecta:  6 OVER 1-2-3-7 OVER 1-2-3-7=$24.  Sneaking the 5 horse into SHOW brings the bet to $32

$2 Exacta:  6-1-2-3-7 BOXED= $50  too much,  Reworking 6-1-2-3 BOXED=  $40.  Still too much.

$2 Exacta:  6 OVER 1-2-3=$6

$2 Trifecta:  6 OVER 1-2-3 OVER 1-2-3-7=$18

I'm still toying with it.  Have fun and bet responsibly.  Turk out!