The Nomination Is In: The Late Pick 4 at Fair Grounds including the Grade 2 Risen Star

Oh Mighty Risen Star, how we gather today in your honor and memory. Winner of the 1988 Preakness and Belmont Stakes, son of Secretariat and the namesake of today's key Kentucky Derby prep race.

The season is heating up quickly and this is one of the first all star weekends of the year, with the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream tomorrow, and Union Rags and Algorithms getting it going on the Derby Trail. As a horse racing fan this is the sort of stuff that stirs the slumbering soul.

The Turk hasn't been very sharp lately. I downshifted after the Breeders' Cup and while I've had some success in my non-blogged handicapping, I haven't been very good on the ones that mean the most to me, the one's I share with my readers and friends. I go through funks just like everyone else and its these funks I think about when I get on a run and I get comments from folks that I "never lose". Everyone loses friends, what I think I am good at is understanding when I'm in a funk I can't gamble my way out of it. For me, the best thing to do is to pull money back off the table and just handicap. When the handicapping is good, the betting will follow.

For now, I think I'm still in a funk and I am ratcheting up the number of races per week I'm analyzing and after doing this for many years I know very well, all funks will pass.

Let's get started with the Pick Four at Fair Grounds today!


Fair Grounds Races 9-12: First Post 4:55 Eastern Time



Track condition is not apparent yet. The track is currently listed as fast and the turf yielding. The weather today looks like a mixed bag. The biggest wild card for the pick four would be if races are pulled from the Turf. We'll deal with that as we go.

Race 9 is The Mineshaft Handicap, a Grade 3 event. Trainer Asmussen is having one heck of a meet at Fair Grounds and is atop the trainer standings. He saddles Thisskyhasnolimits who comes in off a career best 101 Beyer at this distance. 5 of 9 in the money at the distance and 8 of 16 in the money on fast dirt, the 5 YO son of Sky Mesa with Sellers up looks to go hot early and throttle the competition.

Coming with a late run with be Fast Alex: the 5 YO Jim Tafel bred son of Afleet Alex is attempting to give Greg Geier a much needed graded stakes victory.

Gladding ships in for Trainer John Sadler. Training very sharply at San Anita but on the bench since the Ack Ack where he couldn't hit the board after setting the hot pace. No wins at this distance, I'm expecting a fading finish and I'm not covering the win.

Alma d' Oro has Castellano up for Trainer Pletcher who's only started 2 races at Fair Grounds this meet. Set a dirt best 98 Beyer in a Show loss to Thiskyhasnolimits last time out. Pletcher 28% off the layoff he had after the Clark.

Pants on Fire has been on the shelf even longer, since the Haskell. Winner of the Louisiana Derby, training well but may need an effort to improve conditioning. Trainer Breen 10% winner off 180 day plus layoffs. Hot jock Napravnik is up.

Race 10 is a 5.5 panel turf sprint. I'm going to approach it as being on yielding turf. I most likely will bail out of a Pick 4 if either Race 10 or 12 is moved to the main track, so I'll be watching closely before I have to commit.

Zeb is a 5 YO gelding who is 3 for 3 on FG Turf and training sharply. Trainer Foley does well off the 61-180 day layoff, winning 22% of the time, and he wins 20% of the time he saddles with Napravnik. Class jump and longish layoff but I'm hunting for P4 value.

Cactus Son is a bit sharper and won on off-turf 25 January at this distance. Trainer Burgess wins 40% of of his turf sprints on 20 tries. Sellers up.

Country Day, Chamberlain Bridge and Lonesome Street all merit consideration. Chamberlain Bridge, hard to believe he's 8 now, still has wheels and looked very good on Fair Grounds yielding turf in December. he's got top weight today but ignore him at your peril.

Lonesome Street is cutting back in distance and is a wild card as to how Castellano positions him. I should cover but I won't.

Country Day is the one I'll most likely regret not covering, but you cant cover everyone. Let me repeat, you can't cover everyone, especially a horse that might end up at 2-1 and comes in off long layoff. Winless at FG, only 1 turf win in 8 starts for the 6 YO son of Speightstown. Strong, game effort Placing against Regally Ready in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. I like him if it shifts to the main track, along with Joe Hollywood and Southern Style.

In the Risen Star some highly talked about yet still unproven Triple Crown nominated runners head to the starting gate. Trainer Larry Jones has coupled entry Mark Valeski and Mr. Bowling for owner/breeder/former Governor Brereton Jones. Mr. Bowling was a head winner of the LeCompte. I'm backing Mark Valeski who comes in off a OC win and some nice work, with Napravnik, up.

El Padrino ran a smoking 100 Beyer in an OC at GP for Trainer Pletcher and he will surely get a good test today.

In a hunt for P4 value I may take a flyer on Afford, son of Street Sense, winner of an N1X here in early February. Z Dagger goes for Asmussen off the LeCompte head loss as the chalk to Mr. Bowling.

I'll be watching the early races and watching the tote board leading up to Race 9 before I make a decision on the pick four. As it sits now I've built a 3 X 3 X 3 X 3 =$81 1 dollar bet and that's too rich for how I feel as a handicapper right now. There's nothing wrong with taking a step back when you are struggling or when the conditions aren't optimal (off track, chance of surface switch etc) and just playing the races vertically instead of horizontally. Super High 5 is offered on race 12, I'd rather throw the dice at that then some stupid scratch lottery ticket.

Whatever you do personally, do it after careful thought.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 3, 2011; The All Graded Stakes P3 at Saratoga

Trainer Larry Jones returns to Sartaoga with Havre de Grace, a four year old Saint Liam filly who lost by a neck to her rival Blind Luck in a thrilling Alabama in 2010.

Early in the Saratoga season there was talk of a Personal Ensign showdown between Blind Luck and Havre de Grace. That didn't materialize and then the Personal Ensign didn't materialize after Hurricane Irene had other ideas for last Sunday's day at the track. Last Sunday's loss is our gain as we have three back to back Grade I races to thrill us on the last weekend of Saratoga racing.

When you live in a cold weather locale like The Turk does you savor the seasons, all four of them. Winter to me is Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, Spring is Oaklawn and Kentucky Racing, Summer is Arlington and Saratoga, and then Fall is Woodbine, Belmont, and Breeders' Cup . That's how I view the year and it's bitter sweet for me to realize the summer has slipped by.

Friends and family of mine don't really get horse racing. Some of them try, some of them enjoy going to the track, but they aren't as fully wired in as I am. I write this blog to maintain a connection with my love of racing. No matter how much my job drains the energy from me, I have my family and I have this blog that has brought me many friends around the country who all share the same passions as the Turk clan.

I think I digressed: I'm a big fan of Larry Jones, the man. One of my first blog entries in 2008 was when he announced he was leaving the main stage of racing. I love having him back. I was reading some more talented bloggers recently and a point was made that Trainers need to feel a responsibility towards marketing the sport and that trainers need to be more visible and outspoken ambassadors of the sport. Men like Larry Jones are so charismatic, so genuine, you can't help but root for them in life and at the track. While I love the tradition of the sport, their is such a lack of effort to market the horsepeople that drive the sport.

The Turk has been very active in horse racing charities and he donates a portion of his winnings to rescues. I would never suggest that anyone part with their money, but please think about contributing to the runners who mostly weren't successful at the track and have many years of life ahead and so few people willing to care for them. Anything you can donate helps. There are so many wonderful people doing this thankless work, I hesitate to recommend any particular rescue because I'll miss someone just as deserving a shout out. The Turk will help put any casual fans in touch with the right people and all he asks is to think about these entertainers and their long term care is all of our concerns.

Let's get after it!

Race 8-9-10 Saratoga



Check the weather and scratches and changes. The Live Tote is absolutely critical; Forget the morning lines, build your own fair odds table (or letter grades) and then use the Tote Board to let the bettors tell you where they place a horse within the field. Know the odds and know what the risk/reward of your bet is.

I've built base handicaps for each race. My goal pre race is to "reorder" the horses into layers. Those layers are Win-Place-Show-Exotic and Tosses or Also Rans. I don't really try to identify the winner but instead identify who I think could win. Because it's a cop out to not pick a winner, I always do, but I'm far more interested in nailing the final order on an exotic ticket with a bit of boxing and matrix building.

I've put up some key video on each race. My analysis is there are some vulnerable chalk here. Seperate horse fan from bettor within your mind; Ask the Moon freaked the Ruffian Handicap, but do you love her at 2-1? Do you still love Havre de Grace at 8-5? I'm not answering those questions, I'm just suggesting that I will bet chalk when it makes sense as a bettor, but I won't bet chalk because I'm a fan. I'll save my bet and buy a picture for my wall. Chalk gets a bum rap too; In Layer handicapping, Chalks can't be ignored, but it helps if they finish lower than expected and you have them in the next layer below win. Good stuff friends!


2011 Ruffian Handicap


2011 Ogden Phipps Handicap



2011 Teddy Drone $103K



2011 James Marvin



2011 Whitney Invitational Handicap



2011 Birdstone Stakes



I'm going to let my base handicap speak for itself and i'll break down more of the thought process in the post race analysis. I was suppose to go today to the Woodward, a race I haven't missed in years. The Ol' Turk is tired, mentally and physically. The f**king hurricane caused me alot of work headaches and i'm just drained. I've got my eye on a PID road trip for their big races next weekend and then the Woodbine Mile is on my agenda later this month. We are all set in our plans for the Breeders' Cup too so I will just regroup and I'll be back at the Woodward next year.



Have Fun, Turk Out! Thank you Saratoga in the 25th year of my love affair with you.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 19, 2011; The Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four including the Azeri and the Rebel

That smilin' cowboy to the left is Larry Jones, the winning conditioner of Havre de Grace, the 2011 winner of the Grade III Azeri at Oaklawn Park on Rebel Stakes day.

The Turk netted $140 bucks but came up just short of his targeted Pick Four bet when the last leg, a Maiden Claimer, didn't go our way. A Superfecta bet on the Azeri did well for me, as I didn't think it was too complicated to have Havre de Grace and Blind Luck 1-2 and then find a few others for Show and 4th. My Superfecta bet in the Rebel came up just off, as Sartaoga Red and JW Blue snuck in ahead of lumbering duo Sway Away and JP's Gusto. Sway Away was a real disappointment and I'm curious where he turns next, while J.P's Gusto is about what I thought he was. The race was very different then what I handicapped with the scratch of Elite Alex and then the late scratch of Alternation, but no excuses.

What do we make of The Factor. I've loved him this spring but perhaps wrongly pigeonholed him as a sprinter/miler. The gallop out showed me he's got 1 1/8 no problem and 1 1/4 may be within reach.

Oaklawn Park Pick Four March 19, 2011







We've finally reached the most interesting part of Derby prep time. The serious runners of the 3 YO crop will be making plans for their final preps and horses we may be discounting at this point will slip under the radar. What a great sport, ain't life grand?

Have fun this week, be safe, show your friends and family you love them. The Turk gave up bourbon and cigars for lent so I'm overcompensating with coffee to keep my cheery disposition intact.

Turk Out!

The Nomination is in: February 16th, 2009

The Turk is very interested in the Southwest today at Oaklawn. 10 of the 401 Triple Crown nominees are present, which means someone has a chance to announce themselves as a real contender, but many more will be exposed as good horses who shouldn't be spoken of in the same breath as Triple Crown.



It seems to me that Silver City and Old Fashioned are the two best horses in this race. I believe, as many others do, that Old Fashioned is a special horse; Good at 2 YO but not rushed, allowed to be a horse for a long break after Thanksgiving, working steady and fast, and the absolute best Trainer working in North America right now, Larry Jones. Jones saddled 477 runners in 2008. It was too many for a trainer who believes in the traditional ways of doing things, the right way of doing things. For all those reasons, Old Fashioned is going to be fully prepared for the Derby, but maybe he's not at his absolute best today. The competition to garner the earnings in this era of fewer prep races must be intense. I think Old Fashioned could win this race even at 90% effort.

I think Silver City is a fine horse. The Unbridled's Song son may be a classic distance runner, but he'll have to prove himself at longer distances. William Calhoun, who saddled 866 runners in 2008, winning 26% of the time, including a gaudy 28% on dirt, 27% of last start winners and 26% off >31 day layoff, has been working Silver City in a mixture of 1 mile breezes and 4 and 5f bullets.

After the big two, there are some interesting horses running today that could take a real leap up in profile, including one I don't have the guts to pick too high, but I go hmmmmmm when I look at his run lines, Kick On. I don't like his post position, but he's working really well and fast. At 1 mile, with the speed he's been flashing, you never know, especially if the fractions get numbing. He's flashed early speed in his races but faded, so well see.

On an unrelated note, the Turk is now a Thorofan. After reading the news that Turk jock favorite Richard Migliore joined the fledgling group, I wanted to be a part of a grass roots organization like this that is about the fans and growing the sport. Thorofan should consider the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance as a strategic partner, providing a fan voice to the fan group.

For more information: www.thorofan.com

Behind Every Great Horse....

...Is a Great Trainer. The Turk's been ruminating lately on the greatest trainer's of our generation, and what that even means. Is it the "Super Trainer" with greater then 100 horses and scores of assistant trainers working for them, or is it the old barn variety of a trainer who spends a great deal of time around a core group of horses that he influences every single day on a personal level.

The Turk passes to no judgement because he is not capable of fairly condeming or approving of what the best approach is. I spoke recently about Larry Jones, a trainer who lives his life and trains his horses with an honesty that I appreciate on many levels. I guess on some level, discussing Larry Jones and this next gentleman gives the reader some idea of what I consider the horse trainer image that I consider ideal.

I'd like to highlight a various trainer every few weeks in a recurring series of articles. To lead off this collection of articles , I'd be remiss to not post this obituary from the New York Times on Frank Whitely Jr, in my mind, one of the greatest trainers ever and a member of the NTRA Hall of Fame. Frank was the trainer of Ruffian and Damascus among others, and all I've read about him, including Jane Schwartz's "Ruffian- Burning from the Start"has left me with an indelible image of a man who lived for his craft at the expense of almost all else.

May 4, 2008

Frank Whiteley Jr., 93, Dies; Trained Ruffian
By RICHARD GOLDSTEIN

Frank Whiteley Jr., the thoroughbred racing Hall of Famer who trained the brilliant but ill-fated filly Ruffian, died Friday in Camden, S.C. He was 93. His death was announced by the New York Racing Association. A trainer for nearly a half century, Mr. Whiteley saddled the great gelding Forego and the 1967 horse of the year Damascus. But he was best remembered for Ruffian, perhaps the greatest female thoroughbred in history.

On July 6, 1975, Ruffian, undefeated in 10 starts — setting stakes or track records in most of them — and having swept the filly Triple Crown, was matched against Foolish Pleasure, the winner of that year’s Kentucky Derby, in a mile-and-a-quarter race at Belmont Park.

Coming two years after tennis’s celebrated Battle of the Sexes between Billie Jean King and Bobby Riggs, the match race of the 3-year-olds was billed as horse racing’s equivalent of a glamorous boy versus girl duel, an equine sideshow to the women’s rights movement.
But what promised to be one of horse racing’s greatest days became one of its grimmest. Nearly half a mile into the race, in front by a neck, Ruffian shattered her right front ankle. Flashing her competitive spirit, she continued to run for another 40 yards, compounding her injury, as her jockey, Jacinto Vasquez, somehow managed to keep her upright. In an emotional sports saga that captured national attention, a team of veterinarians operated on Ruffian into the night in the face of virtually hopeless odds. They placed a cast on her broken leg, but while coming out of anesthesia, Ruffian struggled so violently that she smashed it. At 2:20 a.m. the day after the race, she was put down by injection. That night, she was buried at Belmont’s infield, 70 yards beyond the finish line, beneath a flag pole that had been flying at half staff.

Twenty-five years after Ruffian took her fatal misstep, Mr. Whiteley recalled the moment he had first seen her, in a pasture at Claiborne Farm in Kentucky. He said, “She was only a yearling, but she had that quality you only see once in a lifetime.”

On Saturday, in the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby, the filly Eight Belles collapsed with two broken ankles after finishing second to the colt Big Brown and was euthanized.

Frank Yewell Whiteley Jr. was born and raised on a farm in Centreville, Md. He rode horses at shows and fairs and obtained his trainer’s license in Maryland in 1936.
Mr. Whiteley won a Triple Crown race for the first time in 1965, when he saddled Tom Rolfe in the Preakness Stakes. Two years later, he trained Damascus, who won horse of the year honors after victories in the Preakness, the Belmont Stakes, the Travers and the Woodward.
In 1976, Mr. Whiteley took over the training of Forego, who won the horse of the year title that year. Mr. Whiteley was inducted into the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame at Saratoga Springs, N.Y., in 1978.

Mr. Whiteley was “a wonderful horseman, who did it the grass-roots way, and there just aren’t that many around any more,” his fellow Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey told the New York Racing Association. “When they got sick, he gave them aspirin. When they needed to be iced, he hosed them.”

Mr. Whiteley retired in 1984 and conducted winter training for many years in Camden. Last year, he was portrayed by Sam Shepard in the television movie “Ruffian.”
He is survived by his sons David and Alan. David Whiteley trained Coastal, the 1979 Belmont Stakes winner.

Two days after Ruffian’s death, a wreath of 1,200 white carnations in the shape of a horseshoe was placed on her grave by NYRA, an addition to a host of floral tributes there.
Mr. Whiteley glanced that day at Ruffian’s old stall in Barn 34 at Belmont. “That stall will never be occupied as long as I have this barn,” he said. “There’ll never be a horse worthy of entering it.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/04/sports/othersports/04whiteley.html?partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

And the below link will lead you to a Frank Whitely jr. interview conducted in 1983.

http://www.championsgallery.com/bobfrank.htm

Good stuff.

Say it isn't so....Larry?

While the Turk does not pretend to be an industry expert or insider, he does have plenty of opinions on the continuing decline in interest with horse racing and the plunging level of exposure the sport receives in the media. This troubles the Turk deeply and he wonders if the little Turk will still have a sport to blog about one day.

I akin Horse Racing to College Football. In College Football, the fans are rapid about the institution of a particular program. LSU, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State...It doesn't matter the names on the back of the jerseys, it's about the program that those jerseys represent.

I think it can and should be the same with Horse Racing. We will never see the days again when our equine heroes race as much as they did in the past. We have these animals for a few months of their 2yo careers, their 3yo seasons, and then many of them are gone. I loved a horse last year named Hard Spun. Most of you have heard of him. He was a tough horse, not the best 3yo in 2007, but game and arguably the forth best 3yo behind Curlin, Rags to Riches and Street Sense. To build momentum in the national media behind a star who has an 18 month career just isn't going to work. I don't need to work on Madison Avenue to understand that.

My analogy creates institutions around the great tracks. It creates rivalry races with champions from different meets. It creates intuitions out of our great breeders, our great owners, our great trainers, and our great jockeys. These are the people and those tracks are the places that endure year in an year out. Until the general public is enthralled by something they can follow, the sport will always be a curiosity in our current cultural environment.

I know this is a simplification, but complicated issues must be solved by a series of simple premises that are built upon each other. Sooner or later the greater good of the industry must be addressed by the various factions involved. It may take a forced participation, similar to a union that must be joined. A union makes decisions for the best of all employees (in therory), not just one individual. Owners/Trainers/Track Owners/Breeders must be joined to some greater common good eventually.

Which leads me back to Hard Spun. Hard Spun's trainer, Larry Jones, announced in late September that he hoped to be retired from racing by after the 2009 Breeders Cup. Larry is one of the true colorful trainers in the business today. Likeable and genuine in a way that is endearing to race fans. How many of you wished he trained Big Brown? I know I do. It's a true shame because losing Larry is our loss, a national exposure trainer that the media liked and looked to for marketing. The death of his filly Eight Belles is a real-life Greek tragedy, and Larry wore the episode on his sleeve. I can't imagine what he went through this year, with the scrutiny of outsiders to our industry questioning his methods, his motivations, his ethics.

The Turk knows there are no easy answers. The Turk also knows that our passion is an ostrich with its head in the ground hoping that bad times go away. There has to be people who place the industry over their own personal wealth and good. I don't know if that person or persons exist. What I do know is we are about to lose one of my favorite trainers and someone I had hoped would be a year in and out challenger to the best races for a long time.

Don't stay away too long Larry.