The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Showing posts with label Arlington Millions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arlington Millions. Show all posts
I dreamed last night that my losing tickets were shredded and used as confetti on my "loser parade". Yeah, I had a bad day. As a handicapper you know it will happen, but it's been some time since I had such a spectacularly bad day.
The Turk has rules, rules I take seriously, but being human I sometimes break my rules. The key rule broken yesterday is to bet easier marks than an all turf, all Stake races, Pick 5 with Past Performances littered with Europeans and the turf less than firm. If there is any analysis to be performed, that is it. I knew these would be hard races but I didn't anticipate how much blood would be shed.
I've been a Little Mike fan for two years now but I would have never picked him to win a Million. As a horse fan, I'm happy for the connections of this Florida bred. It reminds me how these animals have brains and instincts and guts and those intangibles can't be ignored.
My thoughts are with the Live Oak connections today as Zo Impressive was vanned off after the Alabama in Saratoga. This Hard Spun daughter and Grade 1 winner didnt seem comfortable and still had the guts to finish fourth. Hard Spun and Little Mike remind me alot of each other.
Speaking of Hard Spun, his British born daughter, Questing is turning into quite the freak, winning her second Grade 1 on the track her father won the Kings Bishop on in 2007.
Whenever I have a day like yesterday my confidence as a bettor can be shaken. Confidence is a key component in what I do, and when I feel a lack of confidence I find myself betting timidly. I find the best medicine is to just back after it, picking winners and exactas. I'll head to Fort Erie Tuesday night and take in the early evening post times to get the mojo going again.
Not much reason to break these races down too much. I'll follow some of the horses out of these races and see what I can do with them next time out.
2012 Arlington Million Grade 1
2012 Beverly D. Grade 1
2012 Alabama Grade 1
2007 King's Bishop Grade 1
The Turk's red pen will rest today. Even horses get sent to the farm to recover now and then, I think I will retreat to the back 40 for a cigar.
I love Arlington Park. It's a real treat for me to go to a track that gets it so well. I love buying my seats online, getting a box for seven so I can stretch out and spread out, just like if I'm at my kitchen table. I appreciate the kind and hard working folks that come and take my order and entertain me with stories of high rollers, real and imagined. I could prattle on about not enjoying the poly track, but I'd be lying: I've grown use to it and I think it plays pretty fair. I come for that lush green turf. I come for that magnificent paddock. and I come for the people I meet and the city that doesn't appreciate it enough.
Yeah I'm a bit giddy, but that's what winning my first Super High Five bet has done for me. Readers of the Turk will remember that I kicked myself rather hard for leaving my 1991 annual salary on the table by not placing the Super High Five Bet on the Preakness when I had the sequence nailed. I was livid with myself in May and I've waited for an opportunity to wipe this shame off my handicappers report card.
When preparing my handicap for The Thorofan's Handicappers Corner, I completed my base handicap and concluded that just betting a trifecta wasn't going to be worth it: I didn't see any scenario where some real long money was going to crack the ticket. I decided early on that this was my Super High Five Moment. But how to bet is the question. Taking the top six of the base handicap and boxing them is not an option as to that would cost you $720.
Let's get after how I approached that.
My base handicap is a breakdown of the layers of expected finish in the field. I had a WTF moment a few blog entries back and explained my layer handicapping philosophy. As a layer handicapper, I'm less concerned about the actual winner and more interested in "slotting" the horses properly and then having them finish within their slot somewhere, anywhere. I'm seldom emotionally wrapped up with having to have a horse win. Perhaps Zenyatta at the Breeders' Cup Classic was the last time I felt that pang. I have my favorites; my sentimentality is what makes me a fan, being a cold hearted calculator is what makes me a good bettor.
I wanted my risk exposure to be much less than $720 and I started by eliminating some horses who I didn't think would win and I scratched Dean's Kitten and Wigmore Hall from the WIN spot. This isn't a smart move, but its a fiscally sound move. The way you get to a $50,000 high five is by having $19.30 to 1 shot Dean's Kitten win. That said, I didn't want to spend $720 and someone had to get chopped.
Next I make a stand at who won't finish Exotic-Fifth. If I'm going to chop the long shots from winning, it doesn't make much sense to have the Chalk and Place contenders fifth. That eliminated Gio Ponti and Cape Blanco. This isn't a smart move either but hey, listen to me, unless you want to spend $720 you have to make tough choices. This is gambling after all.
Those trims of the WIN and the Fifth Spot took the bet down to $288. While not outside my price range, I thought it was too much of a capital risk and wanted it a bit smaller.
I took the red pen and took the biggest stand that would determine if I won or lost: I eliminated Gio Ponti from any finish except Win and Place. I also eliminated Wigmore Hall and Dean's Kitten from Place.
Sitting at $152, I rested.
What went right? Discounting Zack Hall (Fr) completely and putting Dean's Kitten, who I thought was way too low at a Morning Line 50-1 in the top six. The turf was much softer than I predicted Thursday night and that played to our Euro friends. I also paid attention to the turf conditions and reduced the chance Cape Blanco would drop.
What went wrong? I thought the turf would be a little firmer and Mission Approved's speed would carry far enough. He dropped like a rock in the stretch. Respecting Rahystrada from 1-5. I really thought he could be the value driver.
I've had a full weekend with friends and family. For only having time to handicap and bet one race, I'm feeling pretty good about this.
The Turk likes to recharge his handicaper batteries from time to time, and there are fewer places that do that as well or as quickly as the beach. Last summer I took the entire month of July off, as a blogger and a handicapper. I restarted in August and had a very good string of races post handicappers holiday, and I can point to other personal examples of when I stopped handicapping for a bit only to come back stronger. It's funny too, I don't like to take breaks during a dry patch, it's often after a big signer that I need a break, as I get sloppy after I get phat.
Anyhow, the Turk is spending quite a bit of time on Arlington turf races this summer and I have the video of the Millions Preview Day from last week and I handicapped my home track, Fort Erie, for the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, The Prince of Wales Stakes. The Turk Clan was thrilled by Blind Luck/Harve de Grace getting it on again yesterday. It's that sort of rivalry that drives enthusiasm and anticipation for the races. I'm proving that I can vacation and still keep in touch with the races.
The Modesty Handicap Grade 3
The American Derby Grade 2
The Arlington Handicap Grade 3
Sister Turk is liking Pender Harbor and she knows horse flesh. Mrs. Turk is all about the Welloiledmachine's name. Grandma Turk has Show Money on Check Your Soul, Papa Turk has his money on Jock Carignan and Oh Canada. Little Turk, god bless his soul, likes class 'capping and has Bowman's Causeway and Deana and Daniel Turk are still mulling the pages of the Form over.
A resume. Does a horseplayer need a resume? I got up for show money against The Bart and John Henry, does this count?
The Turk is a big fan of Arlington Race Track. A short 90 minute plane ride from my home, the race day experience I find at that track is wonderful: I buy my tickets online and print them, I get a seven seat box with a desk, I get a waitress bringing me food, and I get a great look at the stretch. I can't stress enough that Arlington Park is horseplayer friendly, at least they have been to me. While I was there a few weeks back, I was on my best behavior, but last year on one of my several trips I found myself sitting on a bench near the paddock smoking a cigar and engaging in some fantastic conversation with local railbirds. As a horseplayer who doesn't live in Kentucky or some other horse racing hotbed, it's easy to sometimes think you are the only one alive who knows whats going on in the thoroughbred world. We are insulated in our day to day jobs, surrounded by people without a clue or a care about a sport that is but a shadow of itself in the American national conscious. Sitting on a park bench, sharing a cigar, and talking about the final 1/8 mile times of Einstein or Gio Ponti, the horror of Spirit One loose on the lead, the merits of speed favoring with the rail set in tight or closers if the corners are tighter, gosh that is good for the soul. It's trips to the track that reaffirm to me that horse racing isn't dead, it's just different and different isn't always a bad thing. I think the sooner we accept that horse racing will never compete with the major sports in America, the sooner we embrace shorter meets, quality over quantity, effective marketing that doesn't alienate the fan base that is still left, then stability will return and growth will be possible.
These are meaty and thought provoking issues better left to bloggers and some media types who know what they are talking about. Today is one of the great days in racing, Arlington Million Day, the pinnacle of turf racing on the American calendar at the best turf course in America. The Turk likes the challenge of these big turf events and was honored again to share my thoughts with the folks at Thorofan at their Handicappers Corner. In case you haven't been noticing, each week a major race is handicapped by a member of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance. The alliance is made up of an incredibly diverse group of horse centric folks and when you follow their blogs it will lead you to a network of new and old media voices that truly are at the core of Thoroughbred racing. Enhance your horse racing experience and visit the TBA homepage everyday.
The Turk just finished looking at the Arlington weather. While cloudy, its warm and it appears the rain has left the area. Pay attention to what the turf is listed as by mid card but I have to think it will be firm, maybe not rock solid firm, but firm.
Circling back to the all Grade I Turf Festival Pick Three, we are presented with some interesting races that can either be settled rather chalk like and return some dull payouts, or maybe we'll get some interesting results, especially in a pretty wide up Beverly D. Let's Go!
Arlington Park Festival Pick Three Race 8-9-10, first post 4:37 ET.
I like the in-race betting prospects for all three races and the vertical pick three has the potential to be dull or wide open. I'm going to follow the base handicaps I've constructed here and build exactas, trifectas and superfectas for each race.
Again, pay close attention to changes, as there have already been a few scratches. Acoma gets Leparoux up after the scratch of Rainbow View. A subtle change that makes Acoma much more appealing.
My Pick Three scenarios are both relatively low risk endeavors; I like the idea of singling Paddy O' Prado in The Secretariat and keeping the overall bet between $15-$24 depending on some additions or subtractions to the possible covers.
Build your own handicaps and enjoy the racing. Have fun, Turk Out!
The Turk has the opportunity to handicap one of his favorite Grade I races, the Arlington Million, for one of his favorite organizations, Thorofan, and the deadline is tomorrow morning. Like most things in life, timing is everything, and this is the sort of handicap I'd rather not finalize until mid Saturday afternoon. Why? What's the weather going to be like between Thursday night and Saturday early evening? That's a long time and it's the turf condition friends, it's the rain between now and then and the firmness or lack thereof, that might be what settles this thing. The Turk, like anyone foolish enough to publicly state opinion on races more then three days before the event, has to suck it up and give an opinion as best as possible based on what they think the situation will be. My base handicapping expects the turf to be something better than yielding and the rails to be set to zero.
Sorting your way through the foreign invaders and accurately placing them in context with the rest of the field is always challenging. What I really took away from this exercise is how undistinguished the older turf division is and how unmotivated the trainers and connections of the best European horses are to come to the mid Western United States to chase a purse such as this. As a handicapper, I try not to focus on who isn't in the field and only concern myself with who is. Let's get after it.
Arlington Park Race 10: The Arlington Million Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on Turf for 3 YO and Up
The spreadsheet, while a bit busy, attempts to bring some context to the foreign runners first. I prefer the information I have with the North American runners but if you use Google to your advantage you can find out lots more now about these foreigners than you could have even 5 years go. It's not easy to get comfortable comparing Racing Post Ratings but that's what you have instead of speed figs. You'll find a good writeup by DRF Foreign ace, Alan Shuback, here.
Of the foreign runners, Tazeez (pictured above), a 6 YO gelded son of Silver Hawk, bred in Kentucky, appears to be the most serious.
I've attached a key race video of Tazeez, the Prince of Wales Stakes that Debussy (IRE) also competed in. While tiring, Tazeez contracted and then extended his stride again gamely.
Never put the cart before the horse: before you consider the bet, build your own odds line or modify the track handicappers based on your own opinions. I say at this point don't worry about looking for value or prices, under or overlays, simply focus on who will win, who has a chance to be in the top four, and who will miss even on the exotic tickets. In my mind, this is a two horse race between Tazeez and Gio Ponti. Behind them is a group of horses (Rahystrada, Debussy, General Quarters and Just as Well) that have an opportunity to finish in Place/Show or 4th and then four horses I consider on the outer fringe. While I said don't worry about the bet at this point, it is important to understand you can't cover all the possibilities and a handicapper will often toss good horses just because you must be decisive. These four tosses(Marsh Side, Tajaaweed,Quite a Handful and Summit Surge (Ire)) you can only hope they don't hurt you but that's why they call this gambling.
It's been 8 races and 16 months since Tazeez won a race. He cuts back a quarter mile from his last effort and takes Lasix for the first time. I generally discount left handed versus right handed running, but it appears he runs stronger going right, the wrong way in this case. I guess you could say you can be right and be wrong (the daily double: bad puns and bad handicapping!) I'm a big fan of Trainer Gosden so I will discount this statistical blip.
Gio Ponti most likely will be the post time chalk and its not like he doesn't deserve it. The son of Tale of the Cat has one of the lowest turf Tomlinson ratings yet he is looking for his tenth turf win in 17 tries with over $2.6 MM earned on turf alone. Gio Ponti won this race a year ago on turf listed as good , ran good on turf listed as soft, and has run very well on firm grass. My handicap has Gio Ponti taking Place but there is at least a 40% chance he wins this one.
The next layer down seems to have lots of equal ability horses. I like Just As Well to come up for Show. Hasn't had a three digit BSF since last September and hasn't one since last year's Arlington Millions preview day. Trainer Sheppard puts one of the great turf riders up with J. Leparoux. Has been closing with nice late moves and in terms of value, I'd expect his post time odds to be third best or worse and I like him to sneak up and win at >6-1.
General Quarters may be the key to how the final order works out. Seems to like softer turf versus hard grass listed as firm. Always game, such a fighter, the softer the going, the more you must respect him. I will shade General Quarters from Show to 6th place based on this scant information.
I'm not terribly impressed by Debussy (Ire) but that's only based on the running lines. the second entry for Trainer Gosden gets lasix and I'm not sure what the expectation is.
Rahystrada is another price that has enough ability to shock for a win but most likely can surge as high as Place and as low as 6th. Best BSF (100) was on firm turf at Churchill last November. Ran in 50K claiming races this time last year but wona Grade III on Million Preview day and deserves respect.
If I truly believe the results will be fairly chalky for the first three spots, then the risk/reward of too many superfecta choices just isn't worth it for much more than a dime. I'll keep the bet reasonable here, work a trifecta and exacta as well based on my base handicap and let it roll.
I'll be back tomorrow with my Pick Three for Arlington that climaxes with the Arlington Million.
Last year, the Turk and many others were shocked by the 12-1 French Invader Spirit One. I, as many other handicappers, struggle to make apples to apples comparisons of horses from Europe that are intermixed in the PPs with our North American runners. I purchased a copy of Alan Shuback's Global Racing and started to educate myself on the tracks, the races, the level of quality between a Grade I here and a Grade I in Singapore for example. I understand Mr. Shuback is at Arlington today signing books, seek him out and meet a true racing heavy hitter.
I love to handicap the races with the Euro invaders, and that is one of the big draws of the Breeders Cup for me, but my friends, handicapping and betting are two very different and mutually separate activities. If you want your ROI to stay positive and phat, handicap but don't bet on races where you don't feel you have enough information. You can track down everything you'd like on Stotsfold (GB), but it's a time consuming process and not something I do except for the Breeders Cup.
10 cent Super's are in fashion, so in full disclosure, that's going to be my focus.
Arlington Park Race 9 Post Time 5:42 ET; The Arlington Millions Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on immaculate Illinois Turf for 3 YOs and Up.
I like Gio Ponti, especially from gate 6. The 4 YO Tale of the Cat son exploded this year and looks to be a dominant older horse for a few years to come. He has a 1 1/4 mile Turf win on yielding turf in June and a 1 3/8 win on Turf in July on firm turf. He has 6 wins in his last 10 starts and 80% in the money in his last 10 races. He's a staggering 82% in the money on Turf and 7 wins in 11 starts. Smokin'. He'll make a late move off the pace, and their appears to be plenty of pace coming from Presious Passion and Gloria de Campeao.
The Turk is a big Einstein fan, but this isn't a popularity contest. Trainer Pitts has had this horse all over the condition book, but I like him the most on Turf. His last turf win was on turf listed as good and he put up a 106 BSF at 1 1/8. Amazing, he's only gone 1 1/4 once before, a miserable Arlington Millions last year. I may even have him too high, but its not unjustified. 11 of 17 in the money on Turf, 6 wins in last 13 starts, the races lifetime top money winner by a smidge. The 7 YO has been training since mid June. most of my tickets will have him dropping to place, show or also ran.
I like Gloria de Campeao (BRZ) to hit the superfecta ticket. Coming off a big win in the Grade 1 Singapore International Cup a 1 1/4 miles and a well beaten second to Well Armed in Dubai before that. Three wins and a place in last three races. I expect the 6 YO to prompt the pace and the last several hops will set his final position.
My biggest struggle was where to slot Presious Passion. The 6 YO gelding has announced himself as a Turf force. The veteran runner has 39 career starts, 36 on Turf and 12 wins. 50% in the money on Turf, 5 of 5 in 2009. His last few efforts on turf listed as yielding were not so good, so he's a runner I hedged down but will hedge up as the condition of the turf course becomes apparent.
For live and long, I like Mr. Sidney, coming off a yielding turf win a 1 mile in the July 4th Firecracker GII at Churchill Downs.
Little Turk and Mrs. Turk are backing Just as Well today.
This should be a fun a ticket and between Arlington, Saratoga, and a Turk family gathering, my next 12 hours are accounted for.
Enjoy.
I want to end with my heartfelt sympathy for the good folks of Louisville who suffered under Mother Nature's fury this week. The Turk is an Honorary Kentucky Colonel and a longtime sailor on the USS Louisville SSN-724. When I visited the Kentucky Derby Museum last October I was treated like royalty and given a wonderful 3 hour tour of every inch of Churchill Downs. I wish them the best as they rebuild.
I dreamed last night that my losing tickets were shredded and used as confetti on my "loser parade". Yeah, I had a bad day. As a handicapper you know it will happen, but it's been some time since I had such a spectacularly bad day. 
