The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Showing posts with label The San Gabriel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The San Gabriel. Show all posts
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where we focus on handicapping and exacta betting of Turf Horse Races.
Every year, when I'm mentally engaged, and that engagement has returned for me, I enjoy the progression of races , and the horse athletes. It helps your handicapping tremendously to follow the flow of the Conditions Book and where the Trainers bring their runners next. Getting second and third looks at these horses really allows you to project ahead and find those overlays that every horse player needs to make up for the inevitable misses. One I've been tracking is that beautiful Grey/Roan pictured, The Grey Wizard (Ire). Motion and Velazquez have a lot of horse, only 2 races into the geldings 4 YO campaign, and already the resume is impressive: A Place in a G3 and G2 and a very impressive 1 1/4 Turf Allowance win last time out here at Santa Anita (video below). If you play the horses long enough you get to watch 3-4 year careers at best, and that's one reason I like turf racing as they tend to race longer. My favorite part of the sport is watching horses like Dicey Mo Chara succeed, and horses like The Grey Wizard to emerge. Each race is an opportunity for that, and the progression these horses will take through the calendar, across the meets, just adds to it. It's a great sport if it can ever be managed in a more unified fashion. Anyways, I leave those sorts of topics for more professional writers, and I stick to my thing. Let's get after it!
The San Marcos Grade 3: 1 1/4 Miles on Downhill Turf Course for 4 YO and Up
I've added a new column to my analysis beginning with this race. As I've always done, I adjust the Morning Line to percentage which includes track takeout, the ever increasing tack takeout, and from there I adjust the ML to 100% by lowering each horse by the 33% takeout that the ML's add to the win odds. I'm trying to find apples and apples with the fair line, and while this method isn't perfect, it's helpful to me to make this conversion and look for the inconsistencies. Expect the Turf to be firm and the weather good. I don't see any threat to turf conditions degrading.
Let's take a look at some relevant recent video.
John Henry Turf Cup G2: SA 1 1/14 Miles Firm; 1 Oct 2022
San Gabriel G2; SA 1 1/8 Firm; 26 December 2022
Allowance $73K N1X; SA 1 1/4 Miles good turf; 20 January 23
Hollywood Turf Cup G2; Del Mar 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf; 25 November 2022
Masteroffoxhounds is my chalk, albeit light. The win on this course at this distance in the John Henry Turf Cup gives him credentials. Conditioner D'Mato and Rispoli, Up combine for 31% win rate at SA and Risoli was up for the John Henry. 2 wins last 13 starts. 7 of 7 in the money at SA, 4 of 5 in the money at the distance.
Dicey Mo Chara (GB) is one of the Turk's favorite runners in training currently. $6,800 price tag with $430,000 in career earnings. 5 of 8 in the money at SA. Powell and Hernandez, up, win 39% of the time together at SA. Hernandez is a 29% winner in 94 mounts this meet. Loved his last out San Gabriel which I broke down in this blog post.
I already fan boy'd The Grey Wizard (Ire). At 4 YO we could be looking at a star, but I'm not ready to crown him yet. I think he's a legitimate win candidate here and will legitimately be overlooked by betting public in the top two spots. That's a value proposition that I like to take a swing at when I see it. Compare his allowance time (2:01 3/5s) over good turf to Masteroffoxhounds sub 2 min classic distance on firm turf and that equates to multiple lengths back.
Avenue, Say the Word and Cash Equity (Fr) round out my potential Exacta players.
I'm shading down Prince Abama (Ire) at my own peril. 0 wins in 6 SA starts, no starts at the distance, but training sharper lately. I just don't put alot of stock in the Hollywood (why do they do this?) Turf Cup at marathon distance. One thing to note is the D'Amato/Prat 25% wins in 53 starts at SA but also Prat's current meet 7%.
What to do with this:
I'm leaning towards not overthinking this and going with $2 Exact with 4 OVER 7-9-10-8-6 for $10.
I think that's a mid probable, high reward value proposition especially if someone can shock for Place.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. As I said, pre race, I didn't see this as a betting opportunity race because I believed the public would see this race as I did, some combination of Masterof- foxhounds,
Prince Abama and Dicey Mo Chara in the exacta.
While the the handicap was good, the bet construction lacked vision. It's important to always remember that bet construction has to realize your opportunity cost for the risk involved. Speaking English, If I'm going to bet money, I need to get my money back plus a minimum 3X multiplier, or a $12 bet has to return $48. It doesn't always work out like this, but you get the idea. That's not to mean I won't sometimes go after low hanging fruit, but in general I need my expected return to justify the bet.
I use a simple formula pre race: Horse 1 Odds X (Horse 2 Odds +1)= Return on exacta. It's not to the penny, but its quicker and easier than looking at the will pay chart as it rotates through the field.
Let's come back to this is a second, but first speaking of English, lets watch the race con un picante sabor español.
The San Gabriel Grade 2: 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up.
From the DRF Formulator Race Charts (unpaid and unsolicited plug- I'm comfortable with the DRF tool, it's that simple)
So Pre race I was thinking $3.80 * ($1.20+1) = $8.36 for a $1 Exacta and $16.72 for a $2 Exacta. Those numbers are generally a bit overstated and I typically use 80% of the value I calculate. I would have won the battle and lost the war.
What I should have done is consider and give more credit to Flashiest and his 7 Santa Anita Starts, his 3 Place Finishes at the Distance and his excellent late speed. Added to that is the public's opinion of him at post time: $21.90 to 1, Let's plug that into the calculator with Dicey Mo Chara on top:
$3.80 * ($21.90+1)= $87.02 The $1 Exacta paid $71.40. For my simplicity I used 80% of my estimate to account for takeout= .80*87.02=$69.62. You get the idea.
If I was building bets off the handicap, this one was obvious. Now in hindsight it's super obvious. As I start to handicap more and more, I'll get sharper, a fact I've learned many times over the years when I take some time away. This wasn't a race worth betting under my base handicap, it needed value. That value actually has to have a chance. Late speed and a record of Place finishes was starting me in the face.
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, coming to you from the blizzard that is Western New York. I'm 56 years old, and the Blizzard of '77 to me was the worst storm I ever personally lived through. The Blizzard of '22 I think will end up being worse. The storm is massive, the winds are scary and loud, and I'm just praying my power stays on and that my neighbors, friends and family are all safe. The facilities I care for at work are being whacked, and I'm praying for my staff that they are safe in these terrible conditions.
I work long hours, something I've discussed here before. My job is all consuming and has decimated any semblance of work-life balance. That said, I signed up for this and I know what I need to do to make it get better, and that's simply training my staff into a top flight group. I've done it before and I'll do it again, but it takes time and patience. It's not dissimilar to handicapping. The skills to decipher the past performances and find winners takes time and patience. Over time your mind will spot patterns. Over time, archetypes will form around the distance, the surface, the trainers, class, and a series of other inputs into your handicapping model. While my job is really interfering with the time I need to work on my other passion, car restoration, I'm making time to handicap more. It's stress relieving, it keeps my mind fresh and clear, and it's something I can do while I bide my time and await the opportunity to pound on sheet metal again. I have no illusions that many people read these. Before Twitter, horse racing blogs had quite a bit of popularity. In the age of Twitter, and micro-blogging on social media, the long form blog, especially one that doesn't do a great job of attracting new fans, is tough sledding. That said, I do this for myself, I do it for my own enjoyment, and if anyone is reading this and enjoys it, I'm glad.
Let's get after it!
A seven horse field on the turf course is always a good way to jump back into Santa Anita Racing for me on opening day, and the San Gabriel G2 is a Boxing Day tradition for me. A bit later on the card is the Grade 1 American Oaks, always a premier kick off for the fillies who will be competing in this meet as 4 year old and Up.
The weather looks beautiful. I'd expect the track to be firm, but you can find the conditions here on race day.
Trainer Phillip D'Amato brings two solid contenders to this race, Masteroffoxhounds/2 and Prince Abama (Ire)/6. This is sixth straight Graded Stake for Masteroffoxhounds. D'Amato is looking for the right distance, winning at 1 1/4 Miles two back by a neck and nailed late at 1 1/16 last out. 6 of 6 in the money at SA, 11 of 20 in the money over turf, and off the board in two starts at the distance. Early speed should allow good tactical placement by Mike Smith, up. My tepid chalk.
Dicey Mo Chara (GB)/3 is an interesting gelded 4 YO for Trainer Powell who places J. Hernandez (31% together at SA) up. Also a regular Graded Stakes contestant, cutting back from a marathon distance last time out. Last win at this distance/on this track back in February, only win in 8 starts this year. Strong effort two back finishing with a Place to Masteroffoxhounds in G2 John Henry Turf at Santa Anita. Going to stay closer to the pace this time out and make Masteroffoxhounds work harder than he did there.
1 Oct 2022; John Henry Turf Championship G2; 1 1/4 Mile Firm Turf at SA
Prince Abama (IRE)/6 gets the nod here but its close to me with Bob and Jackie/5 and Rip City/1. I have them in that order, as Prince Abama, while winless in 5 starts at Santa Anita, winless at the distance, is 8 of 10 in the money over turf. A last time out winner at marathon distance. D'Amato/Prat have won 34% of time at SA over 1 rolling year in 87 starts. Could easily win this and I'll like a lot if 3rd best on Tote Board.
Bob and Jackie is stepping up in class and coming off a +180 Day Layoff, something Trainer Papaprodromou wins 19% of time. It's also first time going for the trainer, something he wins 19% of time as well. 1 win in last 10. 10 of 17 Win/Place over turf. Won by a nose in the 2021 edition of this race.
Perhaps the best pre-race value is Zip City, ML 10-1. 4 Wins in 9 SA starts and 7 of 9 in the money. 11 of 17 in the money over turf with 6 wins.
I feel pretty good (famous last words) tossing Go On/4 from my exact although the 4 YO Nyquist son has had some success at SA at shorter distances. I feel pretty good tossing Flashiest/7: winless in 7 starts in 2022, winless in 7 tries at distance. One win in 7 tries at SA.
That leaves 5 for the exacta. I think the tote board the the betting public will see this race like I'm seeing it. I would expect this to be a difficult race to recover my capital and make my ROI. If I end up playing it, it will be a straight $2 bet, 6 over 3.
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, now in our 13th calendar year of providing handicapping and bet construction to people who never asked for it.
I generally take a handicappers holiday from Breeders' Cup until sometime in mid March each year, as I'm not much of a 'Road to the Kentucky Derby' fella anyway. I like the turf runners and I like the 4 year old and up group. All that said and I took what was essentially a handicappers holiday that lasted the better part of a year. This sport, to anyone who plays it, wears you down. From the appalling number of racetrack fatalities to the greed and actions of a few who prioritize their own profits over the livelihood of the sport in general (I'm looking at you CDI), it wears me down. I love the horses, I love the backside and the trainers and connections to feed this sport its life, and ultimately, I love to analyze the races and occasionally wager on my skill at doing this. As long as there is horse racing, and as long as I'm breathing, there will be a Turk handicapping and blogging, and yes, that's a threat.
Let's kick off 2020 with a group of four year old and older runners over a route of grass, The San Gabriel at Santa Anita.
Early season you end up with a mix of horses in very different places in their condition. That creates uncertainty as to what the trainers intentions are in this race, as you have to ask is this a 2nd effort off a freshening and the season is ready to go or is the trainer shaking some dust off and is content with using the race as a glorified workout. It might be a Grade 2 race but you also have to really question, are these grade 2 quality turf runners or a hodgepodge of available legs to fill out an early January card. There is a reason I'm normally slumbering at this time of the year, too much uncertainty in the horses and trainer's intent.
There is only one real video I'm interested in watching prior to analyzing, the 1 1/2 mile Hollywood Turf Cup G2 at Del Mar in early December. The race had a solid field, much better than here and contained the 2-3-4 horse from today's field.
1 Dec 2019 Del Mar; 1 1/2 Mile Firm Turf Hollywood Turf Cup G2
Ok I lied, one more video....Majestic Eagle willingly yet just out of the money.
30 November 2019 Del Mar; 1 1/16 Good Turf Seabiscuit Handicap G2
I can't say I'm enamored with the field or the betting potential of this race. I like to complete the handicap, the base handicap, and then consider what would make this a bet worth making. What is a "bet worth making?" If you are in this game you have learned magic over time, a trick called "how to turn a big pile of money into a smaller pile of money." That's clearly a magic trick you want to avoid. What is your "Opportunity Cost?" Financial types describe opportunity cost as the loss of potential gains from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen. Without an MBA, this simply means if I invest in Race 8 at SA and I lose my investment, what did I lose by not investing in Race 8 at Gulfstream or Fair Grounds? Most people are not betting (investing) the way most of the betting advice books are written: Bet same amounts or percentage of your betting capital consistently across all the races over time. Most bettors in my opinion are on again/off again. Speaking for myself, I bet just a handful of races per week and I look at the opportunities that present themselves and try to find the opportunity that represents the best chance to make the most money. When I say this race isn't worth betting I mean I have no real overlays of significance and I expect the betting public to see the race exactly as I do. You can see in the Column labeled ML or Morning Line, I pretty much have them ranked per Morning Line. (I handicap and set my base handicap BEFORE I look at Morning Lines. I find that the ML adds a bias to my thinking that I don't want to have. That's a discussion for another day.) Where will the value come from? It will come from a) not over betting and b) a bit of a price in the mix.
As always watch the turf conditions and the scratches and changes, and by all means don't rush in a bet, study the tote board and see where the public is pegging a horse. Funny things happen at the race track and lines can move and suddenly an overlay presents itself.
From a base handicap perspective I like Cleopatra's Strike. The 7 YO gelded son of Smart Strike is Canadian bred and trained by Phillip D'Amato. Cutting back in distance,, 2nd off a layoff. A solid G2 win at SA at 1 1/4 in late September. 2 of 2 in the money at SA, 10 of 18 in the money lifetime on Turf and 3 of 4 in the money as a 6 YO.
I like Desert Stone (Ire) a bit more than Majestic Eagle but it's a tiny bit. Desert Stone is racing in 8th straight graded stakes with one place and two shows. 5 of 8 in the money at SA, 6 of 15 in the money over turf with a low Tomlinson of 273. 1 win in 4 starts at the distance. The trainer Baltas with 29% off +180 day layoff (off since late May 2019). Late turn of foot good and stretching out from normal mile distance. I suspect he may drop to 5-1 from 3-1 ML. Majestic Eagle also off 45-180 day layoff, something Trainer Drysdale wins only 6% of the time. 5 Places in 10 SA starts. 8 of 17 Win-Places over turf lifetime. 33% winner in 6 starts at distance. Drysdale/Bejarano 40% winners at SA in a small sample size.
Overdue and Chosen Vessel represent possibly the best value you will find on the board. Overdue is 4 YO gelding with Mike Smith up for trainer D'Amato. Cutting back from 1 1/2 miles his last win was at this distance at this track in early October. 6-1 ML, could slip to 7 or 8 to 1. Class test. Chosen Vessel has similar class issue. First start at the distance. Trainer Dollase winless last calendar year in graded stakes, trying only 3 times. Flat running style.
I'm discounting Acker completly. North County Guy I could easily lump in with Overdue and Chosen Vessel BUT you can't cover everybody.
My initial thoughts is to place a $10 win bet on Overdue as well as bet Overdue above Cleopatra's Strike,Desert Stone and Majestic Eagle, a $2 Exacta for $6. $16 total investment.
We'll see how I feel after watching the tote board tomorrow. This only works if I'm getting better value than 6-1 on Overdue.
