The Nomination Is In: July 3, 2010: The Monmouth Park Late Pick Three including United Nations and Salvatore Mile

The Turk hasn't played Monmouth Park too much over the years. It hasn't nothing to do with the fine citizens of New Jersey, I just always had other options. I've been watching the brave experiment underway this meet at Monmouth and I can't help but think it's the model that many other tracks should be trying to follow. Today's choice was predicated by the quality of racing. I had printed the Belmont Park Late Pick Three Races and while I liked the Grade II Suburban, I wanted nothing to do with betting money on I Want Revenge or Regal Ransom and I may just take a $2WP bet on Haynesfield who is at a nice ML 5-1. Races 10 and 11 didn't interest me much either (N1X 38K 7f on turf and N2L 26K 1 1/16 on turf)so I guess I'm at the shore.

That fine looking Gr./Ro. is Take The Points. I saw Take The Points in the Santa Anita Derby last year and like his stride, but his last six races have been a relevation and he makes his second start off a long trip to Dubai and earns Turk Chalk in today's Grade I United Nations. Munnings and the Duke of Mischief headline a nice but smallish field Salvatore Mile. Rest in Peace Gorgeous George Washington. Let's Go!



As always, start your handicapping with a review of the websites where you will get the key information you need before you wager. The weather looks good today and I expect the Turf will be Firm and Dirt Fast. It's a bit early for scratches and changes but the first race isn't until 5:23 Eastern so check back in.

Race 10 is the Grade I United Nations. It's a very nice 9 horse field with three pace pushers and lead takers (Get Serious/2 & Straight Story/4 & Acclimation/3 and some hard late closers in Winchester and a strong off the pace runner in Take the Points, as well as a wildcard in Chinchon (Ire) , freshly arrived from Graded Stakes action in France.

As I am looking for value in a Pick Three I'm less excited after my handicap then I was before. I see some chalk or close to chalk runners winning legs 1 and 2 and value may come in a big field N3L at 1 1/16 mile on Turf. If this was easy, children would do it (OK, possibly they do with respect to The Little Turk, but you get the idea).

I actually like this as a betting race for a reasonable price Superfecta so I will take no more then the top two for the Pick Three and most likely single this race and the next (just for a low risk, decent reward value bet) but I will build the Superfecta as I laid out above. I'm backing Take the Points or Winchester to win, and I'm really indifferent to which one does win. Winchester, a Clement runner and a son of Theatrical has solid Tomlinsons for both distance and turf and comes in off a very nice firm turf Grade I win at Belmont at 1 1/4 over Gio Ponti. Pretty good credentials for a resume that was second tier before that race. I'm betting he's on the rise and that's why we call this gambling! Take The Points drops back a 1/16 of a mile after finishing fourth in the above mentioned race to Winchester. A very sharp 4f bullet on Turf in :47 confirms he's rounding into form after a taxing trip to Dubai for Trainer Pletcher and jock E. Prado, up again and sporting a 20% win rate with the conditioner.

Of all the front running speed burners, I like Acclimation the best: Running at regular intervals with a G2/G1 and now G1 effort spread across almost equal 5 week rests. 3 wins in last 16 starts but 11 of 16 in the money over the same period and 8 of 12 in the money on turf with 33% win rate. I think it's a bridge too far but never under estimate the loose on the lead angle which I don't see happening with the others here to contest.

I'm only going to go down to my "yellow" rated and that includes a big wildcard in Chinchon (IRE) with Gomez up and Get Serious who I'm thinking will be dropping back instead of going forward by the wire. I might be wrong not backing Jeune-Truc (Brz) for 4th and I'll have to live with that mistake if it happens.

A five horse field greets us in the second leg, the Grade III Salvatore Mile. Munnings is a serious tease: A fireball who fires sometimes and at others seems content for place and show. He ran a real clunker in the slop at Churchill and is now winless on wet dirt, which makes you shake your head at his gaudy 480 Tomlinson for wet surfaces. He's 7 of 7 in the money on fast dirt and you ignore him at your own peril. Gomez gets the mount from usual rider J. Velazquez. Gomez's fortunes seem to fall and rise like the waves on the shore of New Jersey but I digress. A horse I'm VERY guilty of underestimating is the Duke of Mischief. 5 wins in his last 12 starts and his BSF's are anywhere from solid Allowance runner to Grade II star. Only won once in 13starts as the chalk at post time. Trainer Hawkes and E. Coa, up, win 26% of their races together.

Le Gran Cru is a solid runner that is saddled by the Pletcher barn for the first time today. 50% winner over 6 races at 1 mile. He'll go to gate >4-1 and might be a nice defensive win bet.

I'm again thinking I'll single a horse in this leg and I may single Munnings, contrary to what I have in my spreadsheet. I'm fickle when it comes to his regal horseflesh.

Race 12 is intriguing, a 12 horse field running 1 1/16 miles for horses stuck at two wins or less with claiming prices ranging from $25 to $20K. I have a whopping six horses in my top group, far too many but I may just go ahead and bet them all if I single the first two legs which is today's Truck Nutz (c) Iron Pipe Lock of the Week Play. OK, Truck Nutz don't really sponsor me with money, but friends of the Turk know how he respects the entrepreneurial spirit of America. Yeah, it's a holiday weekend and I'm having fun.

So that's my basic plays I'm I'm sticking with it. If i deviate I'll take 2 X 2 in the first two legs and drop down to three picks in race 12, most likely 6-10-12.

Have fun everyone. I'll be back for some Fourth of July hijinks. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: April 3, 2010; Aqueduct Pick 4 on Wood Memorial/Carter Handicap Day

That fine looking runner to your left is a Turk favorite, Musket Man, one of several Turk Family clan favorites running in big field of stakes races at the Big A. Thanks to Wendy for the use of the nice picture.

My immediate feeling earlier in the week was that I wanted to handicap the Pick 4 at Aqueduct and possibly Santa Anita this weekend as my featured handicaps for this humble blog. After a few hours of handicapping, you could say I have buyers remorse. Why? Small fields are not your friend. I like the runners in these four races but it's hard to find value with six horse fields and. There is no true heavy chalk nor are there many flat out tosses. While I like the challenge and the Suduko-esque nature of a Pick 4, I'll be watching the scratches closely and making a call before the Pick 4 goes off if I want in or not. If I am in, I'm going to keep the risk minimal and try to bring the bet in around $36 dollars. Without superfectas, I'll bet the individual races and be a bit defensive with the goal of breaking even at worst or turning a better then 50% ROI at best. That's my strategy at 9:30 ET, we'll see as my third cup of coffee kicks in where I flop out later. Let's get it on!

Aqueduct: Race 7 - Race 8 - Race 9 - Race 10


Race 7 is a 7 furlong sprint and it marks the return of Eightyfiveinafifty, back from a vacation in the Aqueduct parking lot his last time out. Trainer Contessa gives the mount to R. Dominguez, a combo that wins 22% of the time at the Big A. Owns a race best 105 BSF and has been training sharply. Originally scheduled to be coupled with another Contessa trainee, Castaneda, that fine son of Yonaguska won yesterday's 8th race at Aqueduct. Eightyfiveinafifty has alot to prove today and this is far from settled. The Turk may hunt for a deeper selection here before I place the Pick 4 and maybe we watch the tote board and bet one of the two possible contenders, Raynick's Jet or Hurricane Ike.

Raynick's Jet breaks from post 2 for Trainer S. Asmussen, with Cohen up, a combo that is working for the 10th time together but clips along at 44%. Comes in off a 6f inner track N1X Win in early March where he added 18 BSF points to his previous lifetime best. Hurricane Ike goes on dirt for the first time for trainer Sadler who has a pathetic 16 Dirt races and 6% win rate over past year. You have to ask yourself then, why here? Training sharply, a :45 3/5's 4f work in late March. I think that's as deep as I'll go here.

Race 8 is the 1 1/8 mile Excelsior Grade III with a six horse field. While not big on quantity, the quality is excellent with at least four horses having legitimate chances to win, Nite Light, Goldsville, More Than a Reason and National Pride.

I'm backing Nite Light, the 6 YO Edward Evans/T.Pletcher/J. Velazquez combo. Pletcher and Velazquez clip along at a gaudy 32% at the Big A and 22% over 400 races in the past year. Only 1 win in the last 9 starts, 4 of 4 at the distance and 11 of 13 on fast dirt and 15 of 19 in the money lifetime with a last race98 BSF where he finished for Show to Place horse National Pride in The Stymie.

National Pride a Darley trained by McLaughlin turned a :47 3/5ths 4 f burner at the Belmont training track last week. 1 win in last 7 starts, 4 of 10 on Fast Dirt, winless at the distance and a last race best 99 BSF. Migliore up, 2 wins at the Big A, most in the field.

Goldsville goes for the second time since switching to Trainer Hushion. the 5 YO is 3 of 19 lifetime, 1 win in last 8, 3 wins in 8 Fast dirt starts, unraced at this distance and winless in 3 tries at Aqueduct. A nice inner track win in early March put him in position for today. Trainer Hushion,with Dominguez up win 63% of the time as they go for race 25 together at the Big A and 56% of the time over past year in their 40th start together. Trainer Hushion wins 32% of his routes and 30% of his 2nd off 45-180 day layofffs and 26% of his Won Last Starts. Watch the tote on him. More Than a Reason is a 5 YO son of More Than Ready and is starting his 48th race. Wow! 27 of 47 in the money lifetime, 4 wins in last 29 starts, 4 wins in 29 starts on Dirt and a whopping 6 off track wins. Capable, most likely will fall to 8-1 or higher.

Another six horse field greets you in the Wood Memorial. The romping Fountain of Youth Grade II winner Eskendereya tries to extend his dirt winning streak to 3 straight. An impressive 106 BSF from last race, has been training progressively faster at 5f as he prepared for this.the son of Giant's Causeway has won at 1 1/8 miles and is a potential single for me as I try to keep the bet reasonable in the Pick 4. He'll most likely press the pace himself and sitting off his flanks should be Jackson Bend, Schoolyard Dreams and Awesome Act as this is a four horse race.

Jackson Bend and Schoolyard Dreams represent the best chance to upset Eskendereya late. It's not that I don't respect what Awesome Act did in the Gotham, and I respect Leparoux, but I'm being decisive and we'll see how it works out. Jackson Bend doesn't hold up well on the PP's, looking a cut below, but I like the guts and an interesting jock switch to C. Borel signals what Trainer Zito is looking for. 8 of 8 in the money. Schoolyard Dreams has been impressive at Tampa Bay Downs this winter for Trainer D. Ryan. a :46 4/5ths 4f rocket a week ago is an eye opener. This will be a fun race to bet and I'll be looking for the value horses, especially Schoolyard Dreams at 4-1 or higher to provide a hedge against the risk overall on this card. Little Turk refuses to discount the Gotham and backs Awesome Act while Mrs Turk goes value shopping and bets Most Happy Fella.

And then Race 10 is the Carter Handicap. Turk favorites Munnings and Musket Man square off here in a five horse/six total with a couple field. I like the guts and grit of Musket Man. I'm not sure if this is a race he should be in, but it appears Ryan is taking his 4 YO star slowly back from the bone bruise that ended his magnificent 3 YO season. He'll be up against a serious speedball in Pletcher's Munnings. Musket Man, son of Yonguska is 2 for 2 at this distance and himself put up a :46 4/5th rocket for Ryan as well last week. Munnings, the son of Speightstown from Dam La Comete was bred for greatness, and he shows flashes.

Warrior's Reward has 3 wins in last 11 starts, 7 of 8 lifetime on fast dirt, 2 of 3 at the distance and has been training sharply for Trainer Wilkes.
the 4 YO son of Medaglia d'Oro strung together a nice late summer campaign last year and enters off nice N2X with Leparoux up.

It's still early in the day. My handicaps are complete but before I place my bets I'm going to walk the dog, have a cigar, and clear my thoughts. It should be a fun day. I hope you have fun too this Easter Weekend, Turk Out!

The Nominations Are In: January 9, 2010; The Mr. Prospector GIII at GP and The San Pasqual G II at SA

The fantastic Sarah K. Andrew photo to the left is none other then the incredibly classy, incredibly quick Speightstown son, Munnings, the Turk's favorite in today's Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream Park. There have already been a few scratches since I started my handicap, so check for changes and pay attention to see if the weather and the track conditions deteriorate. It will be wet and none to warm.

Race 7 Gulfstream Park Post Time 4:07 ET; The Mr. Prospector Grade III; 6F on Dirt for 4 YOs and Up and Race 8 at Santa Anita Post Time 7:07 ET; The San Pasqual Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on Fake Dirt for 4 YOs and Up.



Munnings starts his 4 YO campaign off a layoff since early October. The Pletcher trainee is capable of +110 BSF and is a serious Grade III and II threat, perhaps a Grade I but the jury is out. Velazquez is up. Strong runner on off surfaces.

Custom for Carlos is a 4 YO son of More then Ready. An impressive series of bullets (1/41, 1/20, 1/51, 1/43) and a new jock, J. Leparoux, signal a horse ready to make some noise for Trainer Kenneally. 7 of 8 in the money on fast dirt and lightly raced on less then ideal dirt.

I liked Prince Joshua in the top three but he scratched as I was typing away, as did Gentleman James, two runners in my middle pack of contenders for Show and 4th. I'm still thinking of what I'll do, but whatever it is I won't throw away the base handicap but instead I'll watch the weather and track conditions, looking for bias and runners who prefer the mud.



The Breeders' Cup Champion "Dirt" Miler is pictured to the right, Furthest Land, my chalk, saddled with 121 pounds, in today's San Pasqual Handicapat Santa Anita. Seven wins in his last 14 starts for the gelded son of Smart Strike, ships in from Gulfstream where he has been training sharply from Trainer Maker, a 25% winner with 612 starts in 2009. Go Go Gomez is up.

Neko Bay is a dependable and steady 7 YO runner for Trainer Shirreffs, the Giant Causeway son has strung three straight 100/upper 90 BSF together on the track at SA. Only 13th career start and only 1 win on poly, good enough for Place, Show or 4th on class alone.

There are three runners I'd group together and I don't see much separating them. Bold Chieftain comes in with three straight wins, ine at SA, and a win against Lethal Heat, and 3 wins in 8 starts on poly. Cherokee Artist goes Turf to Synth for Trainer Motion, something he pulls off 18% of the time. Raced strongly at PID over the summer. Nownownow is the 5 YO son of Whywhywhy but has shown erratic form since winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Monmouth slop in 2007. A nice 1 1/16 Grade II 105 BSF at SA nearly 1 year ago. Idle since March 2009, Trainer Biancone runner is good but very rusty.

So what are we doing? At Gulfstream I plan on watching the first 4 races and see how the track is playing before I settle on my 5th and 7th race handicaps. At Santa Anita I plan on playing my base handicap pretty much the way it currently is. I haven't looked at all at morning lines at Santa Anita, so I'll look for value between my selections and the morning line and then try and find some value on the tote if its there. Theses fields I've picked today I reckon will unfold along bettor wisdom, as i don't see too many surprises waiting.

That's my view, it's just the view of an internet hack, so do your own base handicap, assign your own oddsline to the field, check the weather, the track condition, the scratches, and get it on!

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 29, 2009; The King's Bishop Grade I at Saratoga

That good looking colt in the Terence Dulay photo is none other then the 2007 King's Bishop Winner, Hard Spun. That was one heck of a hard knocking, hard charging horse, and you have to wonder when handicapping which one of today's King's Bishop contenders has the kind of guts needed to run flat out for seven furlongs.

The weather at race time looks iffy. Right now the track is already listed as sloppy, so don't expect a miracle dry out between now and post.

Race 11 at Saratoga, Post Time 5:10 ET: The King's Bishop Grade I; 7 Furlongs on sloppy dirt for 3 YOs.



The Turk has had great success handicapping Turf races at Saratoga this meet and I've been so-so on the main track. You should never lie to yourself. When I visited Saratoga last week I decided to watch the races closely and handicap but not bet. After each race I ripped apart the trip and my handicap and I worked out a few kinks. I'd love to say that I had a satori, a sudden awakening, that will instantly improve my Saratoga dirt ROI, but no.

I did have two sloppy track days to just sit and watch from the clubhouse. One thing that struck me was how fast the main track played while still listed as sloppy. The other thing that an off track teaches you is that quality horses win under almost all conditions. The Turk's basic philosophy is to build my base handicap regardless of track condition and then factor track condition into the shading between horses. It's a factor, yes, but does it dominate all thinking, no.

Post position is another factor, but not an overriding consideration, much less significant then say, current race conditioning. Many people will tell you that Big Drama won the race before the race, and with Coa up and breaking from the 8 spot, he will have the best view coming out out of the top of the stretch. Mrs. Turk clearly feels that way as she's backing Big Drama. There is lots to like, especially the 2 for 3 at this distance and a BSF of 108. I don't like that 5 of 6 career wins were as a 2 YO and that the horse has never raced on a wet or sloppy track. Will he like mud in his face? On the outside, will he eagerly move inside and come off the pace? I dunno. What I do know is I think the horse has the quality to be somewhere in the top three.

I'm backing Capt. Candyman Can in my top spot. I don't think he's better then either Big Drama or Munnings, but this is gambling and I think he loves this distance, is coming off a big effort against Quality Road and has won on an off track before. There's nothing in either Trainer Wilkes or Jock Catellano's stats that make me feel strongly, but there are no major negatives either. The horse is a Grade II and Grade III winner and this son of Candy Ride is a quality runner who likes to break late and may find two fast, superior horses tiring from the slop.

Munnings is a big favorite of mine. I love the speed of this very classy Speightstown son very much. He has run a 108 BSF on an off track and a 111 BSF at this distance. To me he is the best horse in this field and could easily win and has no excuse for not being in the top three.

A few intriguing horses lurk outside the top three. Despite the Odds is mid pack from gate 5, is training very well and has run very well and fast on a sloppy track. Vineyard Haven is a Godolphin runner I loved last fall and I don't have any feel for how he will respond to his first action since February. Everyday Heroes and Flat Bold are solid Grade III runners and could sneak into the exotic tickets.

I'm on the hunt for a trifecta as super's are not on the menu for this race. I'm going to place a few straight trifecta and exact bets and we'll see what happens.

Have fun. Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 2, 2009; The FourStarDave and Haskell Invitational

When things aren't going your way in this game, and dry patches do happen, there's only one thing you can do: Work harder. Everyone need a process. Everyone needs a way to get back to basics. The Turk took a two week holiday break in early July and then struggled for two weeks afterwards to break out of a funk. While I couldn't take credit for it, yesterday I handicapped both the Jim Dandy and West Virginia Derby and I nailed both cold, Trifecta payouts. I felt relieved, but it wasn't enough, I needed a race I could blog and be proud of. I keep to my basics; I stuck to the information in the Deluxe Past Performances from Daily Racing Form, applied my red pen in search of current form, current work, class, distance and surface and the intangibles of Jock/Trainer stats and the horses In the Money percentage. It was this effort, and as always, educated luck, that lead me from the darkness and into the light.

Race 7 SAR: The FourStarDave Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 Miles on Good Turf for 3 YOs and Up.



The Turk bet multiple $2 Superfectas using my base handicap. I choose not to box because I didn't like Cosmonaut or Mambo Meister to finish on top of the ticket. Luckily for me, I built several tickets without Cowboy Cal on top. I was impressed by Justenuffhumor's PP. Again, educated luck. Build a handicap and work the handicap. I think the biggest stroke of luck was I trusted my gut and tossed Kip Deville.

The $2 Superfecta paid $1,639. The $2 Trifecta paid $345. Nothing sexy, just workmanlike.

Race 13 MTH: The Haskell Invitational Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on a sloppy and sealed dirt surface for 3 YOs.



Quick math told me I was on the hunt for small potatoes. I figured if I hit the Trifecta I'd return may 18 bucks. It ended up returning $12 dollars and change. I declined to bet but I did have the Trifecta nailed down. I was impressed by Munnings but he should stick to one mile or less and one corner, and Rachel Alexandra, wow! What a horse, she should have/could have been the Triple Crown winner.

The Little Turk is sitting here with me. He gets life better then most folks his age. He knows the difference between bragging and being proud of what you do. Dry spells happen to all horseplayers. Good days come to. Enjoy them without bragging.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 2, 2009; The Haskell Grade I

It's hard to believe that one year ago that monster colt to the left, Big Brown, was stepping onto the last racetrack he'd ever menace, Monmouth Park, the scene of his last major victory in The Haskell Invitational. He was only the second Kentucky Derby winner to win the Haskell Invitational, the other being War Emblem in 2002.

Today's edition of the 42nd running of the Haskell Invitational, named for the former President and Chairman of the Board of Monmouth Park, Mr. Armory Haskell, features another feared runner who will go off at ridiculously low odds, the Preakness and three time Grade I stakes winner, Rachel Alexandra. She is challenged primarily by the Belmont Stakes Winner, Summer Bird, Grade II winners Papa Clem and Munnings, and the classy and now royal, Atomic Rain.

Race 13 Monmouth Park; Post Time 6:15 ET; The Haskell Invitational Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



This is a handicap you'll have to tie to the weather very closely. The hour by hour forecast for Oceanport, NJ today shows some very severe weather around 3 to 4 PM with 40-60% precipitation most of the afternoon. You can find the track condition updated regularly at the Monmouth Park website.

I don't know how you don't support Rachel Alexandra to win if based solely on the numbers, trips and body of work. The filly has posted 6 straight 100+ Beyer Speed Figs and has trained very fast since her 19 length victory in the Mother Goose in late June. She also has the highest lifetime speed fig on an off track at 103. I'm hunting for exotics, so I will wheel, key or build a matrix around Rachel Alexandra winning and if she doesn't, someone other then this Turk will be happy.

The pace scenario for this race is hard to figure, but most likely Rachel Alexandra will go to the front or just outside and back of the pace setter. The seven furlong flash Munnings, coming in with back to back wins and 2 straight 110+ BSFs looks to strike the front early and bring some heat. Another who may press the pace is the unlikely top four finisher Duke of Mischief. It's a stretch but I'm leaning towards the speed sustaining 2 extra furlongs for Munnings and carrying him anywhere from second to fourth.

A strong collection of horses compete in this race, a notch below Rachel Alexandra, but fine Grade II challengers. Papa Clem I have fifth but could easily find the top 4. Atomic Rain and Summer Bird could easily flip flop around with Munnings.

Whats it all mean? Build a base handicap and then work your handicap. For me that means keeping Rachel Alexandra on top and inserting in combinations for the Exacta, Tri and Super. The overwhelming favorite that I think Rachel Alexandra will be with the betting public will make the needle on the risk/reward meter lean heavy towards risk. I'll take no more then 10-12 dollars and see if we can't make it into 50 or 60 dollars.

Good Luck and Turk Out!

October 4th 2008: BEL Race 9

G1, The Champagne for 2yos. 1 Mile on Main track.

"...I have a contrarian position the chalk. I like the 7 horse Ventana, whose ML is 8-1. This Baffert horse won at 6f his last time out and since has had a string of constant and solid works at Belmont. I'll be looking for real value here on a win bet. "

The Turk is never ashamed to admit he missed. It's part of critical analysis and getting better at the craft of handicapping. I really believed that Ventana would not only compete, but possibly win. The Baffert colt finished dead last and never challenged.

The only G1 winner before this race was today's winner, Vineyard Haven. The knock on Vineyard Haven was that the G1 Hopeful had a bad start and he won by default. I didn't buy that after looking at the Equibase Race Chart ($1.50). That said, Cribnote and Munnings came to run today and the top three today were the top three (with Munnings and Cribnote flip flopping) from the Hopeful. We seem to have some juvenile contenders finding their pecking order.

Said Vineyard Haven's jockey, Edgar Prado "I saw the horse win in Saratoga. I’ve ridden him a couple of times (in the mornings). He broke nice and easy. I had pressure, but he kept pricking his ears and going so easily. I was moving along a little bit, but when I called on him, he just accelerated. How many horses do you know that can do that: go fast, relax on the turn and then find another gear? I had to ease up in the last part because he was opening up too much on the group.”

The ML chalk, Tagg's Hello Broadway finished 5th. Another horse I liked and bet, Gone Astry, closed quickly but ran out of ground. I'll be looking for him at 1 1/16 the next time out.

Vineyard Haven paid $10.40 to win. Sometimes value stares you right in the eyes.