The Nomination Is In: The Bayakoa Grade 2 at Hollywood Park

Beautiful, energized, driven Bayakoa.  If there was anything to get me to end my self imposed end of the year "Handicapper's Holiday" its always a race named in her honor.

Let the Turk be clear: Bayakoa is one of my all time favorites and I still get goosebumps thinking of her.  

I've been gone since the Breeders' Cup, a self imposed vacation.  I think it's important as a handicapper to push away every now and then, especially when you self analyze your post race results and see the pattern of "trying to hard." For me, trying to hard often means trying to hard to be a wise guy, trying to hard to stretch for value when the obvious answer is starring me in the face.  

I like the vacations, its almost like hitting the reset button.  I've paid no attention to the racing since Breeders' Cup Saturday, have no idea which 2 YOs are in the Futures Pool, quite frankly don't care. I'm an older horse fella, even though I'll get sucked into Triple Crown madness like every year. Getting back into the swing of things is always harder than I think it should be: I've handicapped thousands of races but for some reason when I return I feel like I just got handed the red gel pen for the first time.  I ease back in, I pick winners, stay away from the exotics for awhile and try to get my groove on.  

I like to eliminate variables in my handicapping, but between now and March I find that one of the biggest challenges is trying to understand the Trainers intentions.  It's not always to win the particular race he has entered, perhaps its to sharpen for two races down the road or its just to get a few more starts before the owner pulls the plug on the season or career of his runner.

The vacation is over though;  one thing that is always true is I enjoy the time away but I enjoy the racing more when I return and I feel renewed.  Let's get after this!

Again, it's sometimes hard to know what a Trainer's goals are.  Most likely those goals aren't about winning in December when the racing world isn't paying that much attention.  The race's sole million dollar winner, Inglorious, trained by Josie Carroll, with Mike Smith up, has been shutdown since July and seems to be just at the beginning of a path that is expected to lead the Mare to bigger things in 2013.

I like sharper animals this time of year and I'm backing Lady of Fifty this time out: 5 of 6 in the money on the fake stuff, 8 of 10 lifetime in the money and the Aftermarket filly trained by Hollendorfer, with M. Garcia up, has been training sharply at Hollywood since a 1 mile win 5 weeks ago.

Changethechannel is a3 YO English Channel girl who comes in off a sharp same distance win at Hollywood 3 weeks ago.  Game and fast, I like the sharp last out effort and we'll see what happens.

I have  a deep collection of Exotic Players (purple), most likely a bit of indecision after my layoff, but this is a pretty evenly matched collection on paper.

Bayakoa's Trainer, Ron McAnally, brings in his homebred daughter of Empire Maker, Charm the Maker, into the fray. Only two wins, both with today's pilot Gomez up, some really uninspiring Turf work, and no real reasons to hang my fedora on.  I like the class to prevail.

Class Included and Inglorious will be breaking from the outside together;  Class Included comes out of the Breeders' Cup Distaff and I don't like the way the bounce usually goes on that angle. 16 of 17 in the money lifetime but no fake dirt and no distance wins.  Inglorious I expect will run well but how well, hmm.  I'm shading down, just on the edges of Show and Exotic.

I like Willa B Awesome on the fake stuff.  I may make a game time decision after watching the post parade and shade her up.

There it is, my first effort back off a 31-60 day layoff.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 9, 2011: The Presque Isle Downs Mile Preview

Life is all about timing. Being in the right place at the right time and taking advantage of the right moments is something you learn and it's something I try to teach the Little Turk. Opportunity knocks and you have to answer!

I think Presque Isle Downs gets it. A racino, sure, but slowly but surely improving the race product and they place a big weekend in their calendar the first weekend after Saratoga and Del Mar closes when addicts like me are jonesing for a big field and beatable chalk.

On the Friday night card we have a nice field of 12 runners going after $250,000 in the Presque Isle Mile. Three millionaires and my tentative chalk, Stunning Stag, set to break a million.

If I were writing a handicapping book I'd use these PP's as an example of runners of various class rising and falling, as well as turf and dirt to synthetic angles and distance increase and decrease angles. Take some time with these PP's like the Ol' Turk is doing. I printed them last night and I've been marinating in them. I love the challenge that this field will present and I think there is some money to be made with the exotic options here.

I've laid out my initial thoughts and I'll sleep on it and finish up by early Friday.

Have fun with this, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: April 10, 2010; The Blue Grass Stakes Grade I at Keeneland

Beautiful Keeneland, my heart may come back to you, but it hasn't yet. The old Turk spent his formative years defending American freedom's on the frontline of the Cold War. Occasionally on our time off we'd come face to face with other young and formative Americans who didn't like us. We were taught, much to our chagrin, that our biggest role was to defend the rights given to all Americans under the Constitution, especially the rights of assembly and free speech.

I'm good with defending the free speech and conduct of people who do just asinine things. If I'm going to defend their rights, I'm exercising my own to bitch a bit about fake dirt. Keeneland, built on hallowed blue grass, next to one of the shrines of American horse racing, Calumet Farms, killed me when they installed a fake dirt track made of a little bit of this and that. As much as I hate what the steroid era did to the record book in baseball, I hate how 70 years of dirt track statistics and tradition were tossed out the window. I digress, but I retain the right to not play Keeneland because I just don't like what they did. This irrational position is not even consistent in the Turk's world because I just accept Woodbine and Santa Anita, and Del Mar and Hollywood, but I have a real issue with this cathedral being desecrated like this.

I was happy to be asked to write a "Handicappers Corner" article this week for the Keeneland run Blue Grass Stakes. I set aside my bias and did my best to explain my handicapping style to an audience of people passionate about horse racing. Thorofan is a grassroots organization that started as a small seed and is now a sapling focusing on the racing fan. I wish them the best as they try to create a place for casual fans to find social interaction with like minded folks. I'd like to thank Geno from Equispace. Geno is one hard working cat this time of the year yet he finds time to support and advertise and grow a sport that many people in our society just consider dead. Hat's off to Geno.

Race 9 at KEE: Post Time 5:30 ET; The Blue Grass Stakes; 1 1/8 Miles on polytrack for 3 YOs.



The handicap for Thorofan was written as a bit of a tutorial. For the hardcore gambling types that visit this blog it's important to point out that the method employed in this handicap is sound. You can be sound and correct and still wrong. I would never tell someone that I'm OK with a handicap if I wasn't so I stand firmly behind the handicap. That said, it's a surface I struggle with and it's a track I don't handicap much, so I'm going to have some fun with this race and then leave quickly!

Check for scratches and changes. I've marked up the Past Performances and as is my general custom, I handicapped without morning lines or reading and pre race news articles. I was only surprised when I did look at the Morning Lines that Odysseus was 7-2 and slightly behind 3-1 Pleasant Prince. It was also interesting to read the comments from the connections of Odysseus why they choose the Blue Grass instead of the Arkansas Derby. Either way, I like to handicap the way I see the information fall off the past performances and not put too much stock into what is written. I found over the years I was shading my handicaps sometimes on the quotes in an article. Right or wrong, I do my best to block it out.

At first blush this is a pretty similar group of runners; 7 of the 9 have only I win, 4 last race winners, no winners at the distance, 94 is the best synthetic BSF of the bunch and only one synthetic win in the whole field. As a handicapper I believe you have to take a stand with your base handicap and then you can shade a little bit with part wheels or boxing in the bet construction, moving horses up and down the order of finish.

I’m backing Pleasant Prince to win. Trainer Wesley Ward had three good GP efforts this spring losing to Ice Box twice by a nose and a ½ length. Owns the race best career BSF at 99. Training nicely with a smoking hot :58 2/5ths seconds at 5 furlongs. J. Leparoux is up, and Ward/Leparoux have won 30% of their races together over the past year. Expect him to sit in a stalking position until the ¼ pole.

Odysseus had a dominating 15 length romp in late February and then beat Schoolyard Dreams by a nose in thrilling stretch drive at the Tampa Derby Grade III. Three wins for Trainer Albertrani who wins 28% of his Graded Stakes but only started three runners on synthetics over the past year, all losers. Is 4 for 4 lifetime in the money with three wins. Has shown a tendency to churn some fast early fractions and he has the guts to rally and re-rally if need be. Much to like here.

I want to make a case for Interactif to win, but I can’t see it in the base handicap. A closer loser to Sidney’s Candy in the Grade II San Felipe at SA in mid March and loser by a nose on the turf in February at GP. He’ll make a top of the stretch move and I think will find the top four.

It’s important to point out some information that handicapper and all around horse guy Jeremy Plonk put together which you can find at the excellent Keeneland website. 43% of Keeneland springs meeting winners during the polytrack era come in off a dirt effort. I think the fact that 49% of the spring meet winners have never made a poly start and 63% of spring meet winners made only one previous poly start is very compelling. Information gathered. File it away and look at the handicap through the prism of all the information. Groovy stuff, let’s keep going.

Make Music For Me comes in for his 2nd race off a 45-180 day layoff, something Trainer Barbra has tried three times in the last year, losing all. Making a turf/synthetic switch after a strong turf win at 1 mile in early March at SA. Lost three times as a 2 YO to Looking at Lucky. Training at 6 furlongs at HOL sharply. One of two Bernstein colts in the field. Mike Smith up for his fourth race with the colt.

Aikenite and First Dude, round out the dividing line of strong Top Four Contenders. Aikenite has run a good Show finish at KEE losing by a ½ length in a Grade I event as a 2 YO. His lone victory was his first race in August in Saratoga. He’s a quality colt but where he stands in the 3 YO group is hard to say. Garret Gomez takes the mount.

First Dude, a Dale Romans trained horse with R. Dominguez up, is a work in progress, only one win in January that he followed up with two decent efforts at GP, including 5th in the Florida Derby. He has the potential to hit Show or 4th and any better is hard to fathom at this point in his career. Another Dale Roman’s conditioned horse is Paddy o’ Prado. Paddy o’ Prado comes in off a very nice Grade III turf win at 1 1/8 miles and has been training sharply over the Keeneland main track. Ken Desormeaux is on the mount for the first time.

So what to make of it?

I built a rather chalky superfecta for the Thorofan article. I presented it with two possible angles, one conservative and they other a smidge bit more aggressive.





I mentionioned, albeit briefly, the concept of defensive betting. I use to do more of it, but I still do when I think a bet that I construct has a high risk for a medium or low reward. I keep the defensive bets small, perhaps 1/4 of my total bet amount. For example, I'm prepared to spend $60 dollars today. I'll take $6 and bet 3 $2 Win bets, perhaps a few >6-1 longshots with potential OR three straight exactas that have a bit of value associated with them. The downside, and why I don't do this much, is if the base handicap hits then the medium reward payout is diluted by the defensive bets. Catch-22.

I'm going to watch the tote board and then consider three straight exactas with one of my top three in the top spot and most likely Stately Victor or Paddy O' Prado in the Place spot.

The Turk would be remiss to not remember Personal Ensign who passed away this week of natural causes. A beloved horse with race fans, she would have been massive in a different era when horse racing heroes were revered. She's revered in our shrinking community and we wish her peace.



Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: March 6, 2010: The Santa Anita Handicap Grade I

That fine looking 5 YO Mare to the left is St. Trinians (GB),a fitting Turk chalk in a large but flawed field contesting today's Big'Cap. A win by St. Trinians would be the first ever by a filly or mare in the Santa Anita Handicap's 73 year history, a lofty goal for a gal winning N2X's in December. Keep your eye on the weather and the track conditions as it was raining at the time of this writing. The Turk, like many other handicappers and horse racing fans, has been wildly frustrated by spending hours handicapping Santa Anita Saturday Stakes cards only to find out the surface didn't drain and the races cancelled. I was equally dismayed to read the comments of the bankrupt track owner that he's in no hurry to end this disastrous experiment and return to the surface embraced by America, dirt. I love the Great Race Place but it kills me to handicap races and then hope the rain doesn't fall. It's too late, let's go!

Santa Anita Race 10 Post Time 7:38 ET: The Santa Anita Handicap Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on melting fibers and gunk that doesn't drain water well, for 4 YOs and Up.



St. Trinians (GB) is 9 of 10 in the money on poly tracks, 3 of 3 at Santa Anita and has 4 wins in last four starts. The 5 YO mare is trained by M. Mitchell with Rosario Up, a combination that hits 31% of the time. Trainer Mitchell also wins 30% of his Won Last Start starters but only 9% of Graded Stakes. A sharp two time 1 1/16 winner whose style is that of mid pack closer. It's never a good handicapping angle to pick a horse to do something that no one else has ever done so bet at your own peril. Me personally, I'm planning to bet to wheel several exotics and I just need the mare to finish Top Four.

Neko Bay is a classy Giant's Causeway son who has 5 Santa Anita wins but most on the old dirt surface. A nice Grade II win in early January and sharp training efforts make him a top four finisher for the combo of Trainer Shirreffs and M. Smith, up. Shirreffs Grade Stakes win rate is 40% and he's 29% in Routes and 39% in Won Last Starts. Good Stuff!

Speaking of not betting horses to do things they haven't done yet, Loup Breton (Ire) is an immensely talented turf runner trying synthetic for the first time. Comes in off of three nice efforts, two wins and a loss by a neck, has Gomez up for the Canali trainee. Canali's Turf/Synth hit rate is 32% and he wins 41%of the time he teams up with Go-Go.

I'm slipping Dakota Phone into the mix. Always overlooked and always capable of place or show, 15 of 23 in the money for the 5 Yo gelding.

With a big field I have Misremembered, Mast Track, Marsh Side and Jeranimo in the contender pile for one of the top four spots. About the only thing I haven't thought through is how deep and how expensive I want my exotics to cost me. Having 8 of the 14 runners here in the mix is overkill and too expensive a bet. I'll build what I call a matrix and I'll slot the horses out pretty close to my base handicap, with the horses in yellow good for Show and 4th mostly.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nominations Are In: January 30, 2010 Races 8-9-10 at Gulfstream and Races 6-7-8 at Santa Anita; The Sunshine Millions

OK, it seems like fun. The Turk takes a crack today at the Sunshine Millions, six races running from 4:33 Eastern until 6:25 Eastern at both Gulf Stream Park and Santa Anita. I'll go sans Magna 5 and instead focus on two Pick Threes at each track. Oh yeah! Let's go.

Races 8-9-10 at Gulfstream Park and Races 6-7-8 at Santa Anita Park;




To my Turk friends looking in on smart phones, that was the biggest spreadsheet I've ever created here at The Turk and I hope you make it to a laptop/desktop/netbook/ipad/webtv whatever to check it out.

The Turk is going to play each race based on the tote board and look to find some value in his handicaps which were littered with chalk. I don't think many of the chalks were unbeatable, but bettor's top choices are still bettor's top choices. I'll play exacta's in each race, a 4 or 5 horse 10 cent Boxed Superfecta and then the respective tracks Pick Three.

I'm a bit under the weather in chilly Western New York but I am enjoying a Camacho Triple Maduro and a sip of bourbon. Enjoy. Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day January 9, 2010 at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita

Tough day in Southern Florida yesterday, with temperatures in the 40 degree range and a sloppy and sealed track at Gulfstream. Scratches of six horses in the two races I handicapped left me in a foul mood. We'll get to that in a second, but first I'd like to thank Maria*PA for the nice photo of the highlight horse for me yesterday, Custom for Carlos. Alrighty, lets get to it!




Hyperlinks to Race Charts

Race 5 at Gulfstream Park; The Spectacular Bid ; 6 furlongs on sloppy and sealed track for 3 YOs. Race 7 Gulfstream Park; The Mr. Prospector; 6 furlongs on sloppy and sealed track for 4 YOs and Up. Race 8 at Santa Anita; The San Pasqual Handicap; 1 1/16 miles on Fake Dirt for 4 YOs and Up.



In the 5th Race at GP, I passed after watching the first few races and the way the track was playing. I wasn't sold on Discreetly Mine on an off track, and my second choice Westover Wildcat had too small a price. I say it regularly, the best bets are often the ones you don't place. My non bets saved me money, as I considered a $36 Superfecta Box with 6 horses, but the payback would have been $31 dollars. Hmmmm, $36 for $31. Good non bet!

In the 7th Race, after Munnings, Prince Joshua, Gentleman James and Peace Chant scratched, I took a look at my base handicap and still liked it. I placed a $20 straight exacta on my base handicap and Custom for Carlos held off Past the Point just long enough to return me $118 dollars. Past the Point nearly made Sister Turk and I rich two years back when he almost nipped Curlin at the Woodward. Yes, I loved Curlin and yes I betted against him. The dichotomy of a horse players soul. I digress.

My day of positive ROI but frustration continued when Furthest Land mailed it in and walked home. Why can't I hit the "inquiry" button!

Turk Out!

The Nominations Are In: January 9, 2010; The Mr. Prospector GIII at GP and The San Pasqual G II at SA

The fantastic Sarah K. Andrew photo to the left is none other then the incredibly classy, incredibly quick Speightstown son, Munnings, the Turk's favorite in today's Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream Park. There have already been a few scratches since I started my handicap, so check for changes and pay attention to see if the weather and the track conditions deteriorate. It will be wet and none to warm.

Race 7 Gulfstream Park Post Time 4:07 ET; The Mr. Prospector Grade III; 6F on Dirt for 4 YOs and Up and Race 8 at Santa Anita Post Time 7:07 ET; The San Pasqual Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on Fake Dirt for 4 YOs and Up.



Munnings starts his 4 YO campaign off a layoff since early October. The Pletcher trainee is capable of +110 BSF and is a serious Grade III and II threat, perhaps a Grade I but the jury is out. Velazquez is up. Strong runner on off surfaces.

Custom for Carlos is a 4 YO son of More then Ready. An impressive series of bullets (1/41, 1/20, 1/51, 1/43) and a new jock, J. Leparoux, signal a horse ready to make some noise for Trainer Kenneally. 7 of 8 in the money on fast dirt and lightly raced on less then ideal dirt.

I liked Prince Joshua in the top three but he scratched as I was typing away, as did Gentleman James, two runners in my middle pack of contenders for Show and 4th. I'm still thinking of what I'll do, but whatever it is I won't throw away the base handicap but instead I'll watch the weather and track conditions, looking for bias and runners who prefer the mud.



The Breeders' Cup Champion "Dirt" Miler is pictured to the right, Furthest Land, my chalk, saddled with 121 pounds, in today's San Pasqual Handicapat Santa Anita. Seven wins in his last 14 starts for the gelded son of Smart Strike, ships in from Gulfstream where he has been training sharply from Trainer Maker, a 25% winner with 612 starts in 2009. Go Go Gomez is up.

Neko Bay is a dependable and steady 7 YO runner for Trainer Shirreffs, the Giant Causeway son has strung three straight 100/upper 90 BSF together on the track at SA. Only 13th career start and only 1 win on poly, good enough for Place, Show or 4th on class alone.

There are three runners I'd group together and I don't see much separating them. Bold Chieftain comes in with three straight wins, ine at SA, and a win against Lethal Heat, and 3 wins in 8 starts on poly. Cherokee Artist goes Turf to Synth for Trainer Motion, something he pulls off 18% of the time. Raced strongly at PID over the summer. Nownownow is the 5 YO son of Whywhywhy but has shown erratic form since winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Monmouth slop in 2007. A nice 1 1/16 Grade II 105 BSF at SA nearly 1 year ago. Idle since March 2009, Trainer Biancone runner is good but very rusty.

So what are we doing? At Gulfstream I plan on watching the first 4 races and see how the track is playing before I settle on my 5th and 7th race handicaps. At Santa Anita I plan on playing my base handicap pretty much the way it currently is. I haven't looked at all at morning lines at Santa Anita, so I'll look for value between my selections and the morning line and then try and find some value on the tote if its there. Theses fields I've picked today I reckon will unfold along bettor wisdom, as i don't see too many surprises waiting.

That's my view, it's just the view of an internet hack, so do your own base handicap, assign your own oddsline to the field, check the weather, the track condition, the scratches, and get it on!

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: December 26, 2009: The La Brea Stakes Grade I; 7 Furlongs on Fake Dirt for 3 YO Fillies at Santa Anita

The 2008 winner of the Grade I La Brea, Indian Blessing, added a 5th win in this race for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert. Trainer Baffert has the Turk's chalk running here today, Gabby's Golden Gal on a fantastic day at the Great Race Place that will see mighty Zenyatta paraded for the last time before she's off to become a mother of future champions as well as what I'm sure is an emotional day for trainer McAnally as the statue of John Henry is unveiled. Great Stuff and the Turk wishes he was there.

Race 8 Santa Anita, post time 6:30 ET; The La Brea Stakes Grade I; 7 furlongs on fake dirt for 3 YO fillies.



Gabby's Golden Gal has been off since July 4th and that is always a red flag for me, but has been working sharply for Trainer Baffert and with Smith up for the breeder/owner and Bloodhorse Magazine featured Arnold Zetcher . After a forgettable 2 YO campaign, 3 wins in 6 starts as 3 YO, 3 for 3 in the money on Poly and a Grade I dirt winner as well as the 3 YO earnings leader. Beatable chalk in a fairly wide open race.

Evita Argentina was a better 2 YO then a 3 YO, or possibly I should say, an unimproved 3 YO from a being a good 2 YO. A win here might change that impression. The daughter of Candy Ride (Arg) is trained by Sadler and the Sadler/Rosario combo clicks away at 21% at SA,

I'm looking for some value with Pinkarella . Coming in off an impressive N1X win and a good show finish in a Grade III at SA last March. 2 wins in 4 starts on poly for the daughter of Malibu Moon. 2nd off >180 day layoff.

Kays and Jays is a Turk favorite, as Little Turk is Jae and Turk foundation wiemaraner is Kay. That said, this pick isn't about the name but a career best 105 BSF and a 99 BSF, both on dirt. 3 wins in 4 starts on synth/turf for the Macho uno daughter, trained by Mitchell with Bejarano up, a combo that is a race best SA best 25% win rate with over 100 races in 2009.

Amazed by Grace with Gomez up, is training very well and enters off a 75K stakes win and two sharp dirt starts. 1st poly try. Dani Reese won a six furlongs at SA last time out in an N1X in October and has been training well since. K. Desormeaux takes the mount from M. Smith. 3 wins in 4 starts in 2009.

So what are doing? Well the 1st race is going off as I type this so its early to make final decisions but after analyzing I think we will have a wide open affair and i think as many as five horses have a chance to win and I think 7 horses have a good shot at the top four. 10 cent supers are in fashion so I'll work a few boxed bets in, no more then $12 bucks or 5 different combos. I'll take 8 dollars and work a few straight exactas and perhaps even a few win bets depending on the tote. Toss everyone below C+, three Irish Breds. Gosh that doesn't right!

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day December 12, 2009; The Queens County Handicap at Aqueduct and the Native Diver at Hollywood

I had to see it to remember, and perhaps Mast Track needed to see it too. The Hollywood Gold Cup Winner broke his long winless streak yesterday to take the Grade III Native Diver Handicap for new owner , Stronach Stables, and gives trainer Ascanio another win as he emerges from the shadow of lost but not forgotten legend, Bobby Frankel. I'd love to have shown a picture of Rodman winning the Grade III Queens County Handicap from Aqueduct yesterday but I reckon no one could get a good angle from the OTB parlor.

Race 8 Aqueduct: The Queens County Handicap Grade III; 1 3/16 miles on the inner dirt for 3 YO and Up and Race 7 at Hollywood Park: The Native Diver Grade III; 1 1/8 miles on poly for 3 YOs and Up.



At Aqueduct, my base handicap had the top two flip flopped but I felt strongly enough to box the exacta and I was rewarded with a decent payout. I didn't see More Then a Reason being competitive and my lone toss taking Show would have really messed me up if I had pressed my betting, which I didn't. As I said pre race, bet responsibly, and to me that isn't a public service warning telling fellow horse players not to bet but instead The Turk's way of saying don't throw good money at bad fields or bad handicaps. I did expect Honour Devil to look better then he did and he looked unimpressive. Rodman struck the front very early, leading by 2 1/2 lengths at the top of the stretch and won by 5 3/4 lengths in convincing fashion. I read there is talk of a start at the Donn. We'll see.

At Hollywood, a similar race unfolded with Mast Track loose on the lead and unthreatened throughout. Neko Bay made a late run but maybe too late and High Court Drama, my one toss, screwed up any chance I had of cashing a ticket on this race BUT gave us a horse to watch in his next start. Thanks to Steve from Wireplayers.com and Rob from Amateurcapper for chiming in with good points. Also, check out Kate's Keiblog for some fantastic thoughts and pictures of the world of horse racing in Japan.



Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: December 12, 2009; The Native Diver Grade III at Hollywood on Poly

My Turk heart is torn between seeing mighty
Lava Man run again or stay retired. The decision was made for me today with his scratch out of the Grade III Native Diver at Hollywood, most likely because of the horrible weather in California. Lava Man was the morning line 2nd favorite and I pray his stem cell treated ankles are up to the stresses, but he has been training very sharp and fast with a 6f 1:12 1/5th two weeks ago. The picture was taken by Matt Brockmeyer and captures the intensity the gelding always had on the track. Anyhow, we have a 5 horse field and we'll see if there is anything we can do with it. Let's Go!

Race 7 Hollywood Park Post Time 6:35 ET; The Native Diver Handicap Grade III; 1 1/8 Miles onfake dirt for 3 YO and Up.


Neko Bay is a Moss owned, Shirreffs trained, Smith ridden 6 YO son of Giant's Causeway. 9 of 11 lifetime in the money with no wins at Hollywood, none at this distance, only 1 on poly and just 1 win in last 6 starts. This is what passes for morning line favorites this time of year in a graded stakes. Semi Game at The Breeders' Cup "Dirt" Mile, and a very consistant run of upper 90/100 even BSF's going back 1 year. Only third start in 2009. Beatable chalk?

The lone three year old is one time Kentucky Derby hopeful, Square Eddie. Training very fast at HOL with a 4f :47 2/5ths and a 6f 1:11 3/5ths over past two weeks. A lack luster turf effort at Breeders' Cup with Dettori up. Gomez up for trainer O'Neill. I like the ML 6-1 odds and if there is any hope of value in this 5 horse field he just may be it.

Mast Track gets a slight edge from me over Tres Borrachos but not by much. 0 for 6 in 2009 and hasn't won since June 2008 and no wins at this distance. This 5 YO Frankel bred Stronach Stables runner use to be the perfect foil to Well Armed and Go Between and needs a good effort today to stay in the conversation as competitive. Don't count him out and is capable of running as fast as anyone here.

Tres Borrachos is only 3 of 21 lifetime, 2 of past 17, but 5 of 7 In the Money at Hollywood. 4 YO Gelding ran a strong Place to Rail Trip in Hollywood Gold Cup beating Life is Sweet. Which horse shows up today? At 4-1 to start, look to see if he slips.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day November 21, 2009: The Kennedy Road at Woodbine

Ahh, the lovely Dita joins me tonight to celebrate a fine handicap in today's Grade III Kennedy Road 6f sprint at Woodbine. Ms. Von Teese, a fine handicapper in her own right, understands as I, the difference between celebrating success that results from hard work and disciplined horseplaying and bragging. The Turk never brags, as he knows how humbling the horse game can be. I thank Mrs. Turk as always for her tolerance of these celebratory smokes, she's a damn fine woman in her own right. Alrighty, lets go!

After spending a few minutes contemplating The Discovery Handicap at Aqueduct, I just had a 1-800-Hammer feeling about betting on a race I thought Gone Astray couldn't possibly lose. The disciplined bettor in me said no and I entered the Kennedy Road with extra money in my weekend betting budget. What to do with it, hmmmm?

As I said pre-race, I was going to bet a series of Exacta Bets with Smokey Fire on top and then a few straight superfectas. As I checked the tote board minutes before post I salivated as I saw Smokey Fire about where I thought he would be but Field Commission only the 4th favorite with bettors.

Putting Smokey Fire ontop of my pre race handicap I thought was a real gamble (funny, we are gambling after all). My base handicap is my "reordering" of the Morning Line. It is not, as it is often mistakenly thought of, as my betting strategy. It is my morning line and it often lines up, especially the top and bottom picks, with the track handicappers official morning line. This handicap wasn't even close yet it seemed so obvious to me that Trainer Attard was slipping Smokey Fire into a slot he thought he could do well. The Turk talks about consistency and discipline quite a bit. I talk about it because I believe in it, I believe that if you build a base handicap, believe in the base handicap, and then work that handicap with bets that make sense from a risk/reward perspective, over the long haul you will do well. When my handicap doesn't line up with the track handicap I trust in my handicap, as hard as that can be.

All that said, I was truly shocked that Field Commission wasn't higher with the bettors and I thought both El Brujo and Jungle Wave and Bouge Chitto were all good choices but no where near as good as Field Commission, and in my opinion, not currently in the form of Smokey Fire.

I placed $10 on my base handicap exacta of Smokey Fire and Field Commission, straight up. I also had $2 win on Smokey Fire and I bet five $2 Triactors with Smokey Fire and Field Commission on top, straight up, on all of them and then five of the field filling in the Show place. I mentioned Signature Red in my pre race cap as well, but his inclusion was a hunch.

Race 8 Woodbine: The Kennedy Road Grade III; 6 Furlongs on Poly for 3 YOs and UP.



That's alot of money to win with a risk of $22 dollars. The game we play is cruel and sometimes ironic. You build a base handicap and sometimes your A+ horse finishes dead last. As a hero of mine said, shake the dirt off your sandals when you have a bad handicap and just keep going.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: November 21, 2009; The Kennedy Road Grade III; 6 furlongs at Woodbine

Handsome Field Commission, campaigning in the Red and Gold Silks of owners E. Teltzer and owner/trainer D. Vella, is the morning line second choice in today's Grade III Kennedy Road at Woodbine, a 3/4 of a mile affair on fake dirt. It's a nice 10 horse field with quality and while Field Commission has at least a 30% chance of winning, the Turk is thinking upset for the win spot and Superfecta win is what I'm aiming for. Let's Go!

Race 8 Woodbine; Post Time 4:23 ET; The Kennedy Road Grade III; 6 Furlongs on All Weather Poly for 3 YOs and Up.



There has already been some changes. You Don't Pass was scratched by the stewards dropping the field to nine but not changing the starting gate because he was last horse anyhow, and the talented Ms. Sutherland takes over the mount of the #3 Horse, Signature Red.

With a field of nine, I believe the bettors will spread their money around on a few horses, at least four, making the post time favorite most likely no better then 3-1 or 7-2. There should be a chance at a big exacta/tri and super payout.

I'm going to take a bit of a gamble on my base handicap and back Smokey Fire to win. Fairly unaccomplished and one of three horses for Trainer Attard here in this race, coming off a 97 BSF at 6f about one month ago and two blistering 4f works with the last :46 4/5ths.

Field Commission enters off a 101 BSF win in a Grade II turf win and returns to fake dirt after three staright turf outings, including Place in the Woodbine Mile. Also working fast with a 4f :47 4/5ths this past week. 11 of 14 in the money on fake dirt, 11 of 14 at WO and 6 of 8 at the distance.

Jungle Wave is the morning line favorite by a nose and has the credentials. Like Field Commission, he returns to fake dirt after four turf starts and his last WO fake dirt effort at 6.5 furlongs produced a 103 BSF. 4 Wins in 7 starts in 2009 and 4 of 4 in the money on fake dirt for the gelded 4 YO son of Hold That Tiger.

El Brujo and Bogue Chitto will compete for spots in the top four. El Brujo comes in off two Grade III wins on poly tracks and the 3 YO gelded son of Candy Ride has been working steady :48 4 f. 11 of 13 in the money on fake stuff. Bouge Chitto is an ALW force at Woodbine but hasn't done well stepping up in class. A nice 5f in :59 2/5ths signals good form and last 6f outing at WO produced a 98 BSF and N2X win.

Signature Red may run well.

I'm leaning towards some exacta bets with my longshot Smokey Fire on top. After that, no more then 10 dollars or so worth of straight super bets and we'll swing for the fences.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: Breeders' Cup Saturday Breeders' Cup "Dirt" Mile Grade I

The fully stretched out and magnificent Mastercraftsman is pictured to the left, today's overwhelming Morning Line and Turk Chalk in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. I don't rant too much and I prefer to leave that to others that do it better then The Turk, but the idea that these races are called "Dirt" I find even more ridiculous then the renamed "Ladies Classic". It's not dirt and it does not feel like dirt to dirt horses, the surface of choice in American racing for 140 odd years. It doesn't matter what my anecdotal opinion of polytrack is, its irrelevant what I think about that, but it isn't irrelevant that we refer to these races as being "dirt" races. Why not call it the Poly Mile or the Synthetic Mile, or the Turk's favorite "The Fake Dirt that may or may not be safer for horses Mile". It ain't Dirt. OK, I digress.


Race 7 at Santa Anita post Time 5:12 ET; The Breeders' Cup Fake Dirt Mile Grade I; 1 Mile on a surface that is anything but Dirt for 3 YOs and Up.


Mastercraftsman (Ire) comes to the United States and is most likely happy to notr see a horse named See the Stars on the PP with him for this outing. A Grade I winner this year and a 1 length loser to See the Stars in August and a well beaten Show in September. Trainer O'Brien has had incredible success in Europe but is cold in North America, with an 0-11 first time North American win percentage, and 0-9 in Graded Stakes in North America in the past year. 8 of 10 lifetime in the money on turf and one win, his last race out, on poly. I don't think the field is overpowering and I expect he will win handily.

I really struggled to identify the second best horse in this race and I finally settled on Bullsbay. We give the Euro's credit for losing to See the Stars and we should give Bullsbay credit for losing to Rachel Alexandra and running gamely with Macho Again the last few times out. A flawed horse to be sure, and poly results aren't earth shattering, but we will hang our base handicap with him here and hedge him down on many tickets.

Mr. Sidney is a stretch in this spot as well, but I like his work on Turf, with 5 wins in 9 tries and I think he's run well on yielding turf as well. A late break off the pace I expect could propel him into one of the top four spots.

Furthest Land comes in off a big effort at 1 1/8 on poly for a Grade II win, posting a 106 BSF in the process. Nothing else in his PP makes you think he was capable of that. trainer Maker has some really WOW stats himself, 29% winners with horses on a 2nd effort off 45 day layoff, 30% winners on fake dirt, 29% winners on 31-60 day layoffs, 30% won last start and 29% of route races. One big red flag; 8% of Graded Stakes on only 24 starts. Ugh, a big fish swimming mostly in shallow water, and I mean no disrespect to a fine horseman. 5 wins in 2009 for the son of Smart Strike.

Midshipman has the potential to win this race and at the right number on the tote board I'll take a $4 chance on him. I'd have him higher but why? 1 start in 2009 as a 3 YO, an N3X on dirt with a sub 100 BSF, in fact he's never broken 100. This Unbridled's Song son coulda, shoulda been something special and it just hasn't happened since Baffert beat a weak group of 2 YOs with him last year to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. So much promise, how huge would this win be to his legacy? Huge. Gomez up for Godolphin. It's up to the horse who has been spotted drifting erracticly during work. Possible equipment change to blinkers.

Neko Bay and Chocolate Candy are poly warriors but both have yet to do much on the big stage. We haven't even mentioned which Pyro will show up today.

Have Fun, Turk Out!