The Nomination Is In: The River City Handicap G3 at Churchill Downs

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.  "Specialize" is not how I feel this week, as I had Ethical Diamond at something like 3% chance to win the Breeders' Cup Turf.  I'd love to tell you how I thought highly of him and he was my wise guy pick, yada, yada, yada, but no.  I don't think I would have picked that horse, considering the field he was in, to finish in my exacta unless I boxed the whole field.  Beware the handicapper and bet constructor who can't admit he was wrong.  I'm going to diagnose both my handicap, pre race analysis and the video in a longer post tomorrow, just because I like pain and I also like to try to learn.  The only sign was improving Timeforms, but in that field, at his post draw, I still don't see it.  Anyways, I'll stop grumbling.

Turf racing is over for the year.  Yes I know there are some races, but for all legitimate purposes, it's done.  When you like turf racing, and you like older horses, this time of the year is slow and slim pickings, but the good people at The Thorofan asked me (they didn't read my Breeders' Cup debacle....shhh, or they won't invite me again) handicap the River City at Churchill Downs, so that is the mission.  

It's not a terrible field.  This time of year you get older horses possibly taking one last run before retirement or 4 YOs who are building on their improvements, with very little high end class, or graded stakes wins, to show for it.  

Conversely, not a lot of video I think worth looking at for this race.  Interestingly, so much of this field is early speed, and not a lot of success in the field at the distance, with only five (5)  1 and  1/8 Mile wins combined.  

Before I go to far, I'd be tone death to not mention that Louisville is having a terrible week following the airplane crash that left at least 13 dead, with 9 or more missing.  Say a prayer for the area as they continue to heal and bury the dead. Prayer, regardless of your beliefs, helps, and never lose sight of the fact that as humans, we are all interconnected.

The weather should be mostly dry after some rain on Friday.  Keep an eye on turf conditions, as this is the last race on the card tomorrow at almost 6 PM and two other races, non graded stakes, are on the card.  Today is listed as firm with rail at 36 feet, it's max position.  

Let's Get After This:

Exacta History: Exacta In The Money (ITM) > 60% in BOLD

Visualization of Early and Late US Timeform Pace: Three true late speed, a few tactical, albeit slow mid runners and a bunch of very early speed.  

I set Par for this race as 75 Early and 105 Late

Tomlinson Number Analysis with Focus on Distance

8 Nov 2025 CD; The River City Handicap G3;  1 1/8 Miles on Turf

So, What to do with all that?  If I'm being honest, I think I'm burned out on handicapping this year because I'm without a very strong opinion. Everyone can sometimes use a break, and post Breeders' Cup I generally shut it down.  It doesn't help I uked all over myself in my annual Super Bowl, The Breeders' Cup Turf (can you tell I'm gripping?).  

I'm going to value the late speed of Chasing the Crown/6:  Loves Churchill, 6 for 6 in the exacta.  Has a win 1/2 furlong shorter so I'm not holding the distance against him but its a wildcard he has to overcome.  Not the best horse in the field, not the best trainer/jock combo, but I like all of it added together. My chalk.

I like Taking Candy/12 more than others, and I have the 5 YO son of Twirling Candy for Lael Stables as a win contender I like his early tactical speed and decent late turn of foot.  Place in G2 two back and a G3 win four back.  

I have a crowded group just below these two that I think are all legitimate exacta contenders.  

Corruption/8 is an improving 4 YO who has just been building all 2025 after entering the year as a maiden.  Acquitted himself well in 4th in The Manhattan in the deep G1 waters, same in the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs.

Lagynos/9 doesn't win much, 3 wins in last 18 but 9 Place and Show in that time frame.  $1.7 MM lifetime winner, won the $500K Tapit at Kentucky Downs by 5 lengths and ran back in Place 9 days later in a grade 3.  Off since September 6, a break Asmussen wins 16% of the time on 485 tries.  Dettori is up, winless in 5 CD starts over past year.  

Epic Ride/2 is a $1.9 MM career winner  at 4 YO and a 2024 Kentucky Derby entrant before going to turf in June of 2025.  1 turf win in 4 tries and today the longest stretch out beyond 8 furlongs since the Kentucky Derby.  Big early speed.  Quality horse, no doubt.  More questions for me than answers.  

Encino/4 is a Brad Cox, gaudy stats Brad, (24% Graded Stakes Winner, 22% Turf, 27% Synth to Turf, 28% Routes, 26% winner at CD with I. Ortiz, Up)with another improving 4 YO making only his 3rd turf start.  First time at CD, First time at distance on turf, very classy son of Nyquist for Godolphin.  More questions than answers as well.  

Mercante/7 had a very good start to season in 2025, winning 3 of first 5  races before going backward a bit.  Oddly placed as 60-1 shot at Keeneland  in Turf Mile last month, cutting back 4 furlongs  from Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs. Has a Place Finish/101 Beyer at this track and distance in May in a Grade 1  and followed that up with a G3 with 1/2 furlong shorter at CD.  Not sure what to make of him.

If I boxed 6-12-8-9-4-2 (Skipping Mercante) for $2, that's a $60 bet.  Too pricy and lousy risk/reward.  This improves somewhat dropping the 4-2 from Win Position, a $2 bet for $24.  That's my base bet.

If you are playing after the Breeders' Cup, I tip my hat to you, a real horseplayer.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for the River City Handicap G3

Villandry: Photo by Reed Palmer

I'm not sure what the take away is on today's River City Handicap at Churchill Downs.  I guess I'll sum it up with a missed opportunity for me.

Silver Max falls to zero in two starts at this distance and it just doesn't seem like a distance that he wants.

Villandry was as I good as I thought he'd be.  I don't look at Morning Line odds and I was surprised by the Post Time odds that placed him second on the tote board, I guess it was more obvious than the Ol' Turk thought.

Hamp!  On a break since early September, Trainer Correas  was only winning 12% off those breaks.  In the 4 year old geldings last twelve races he's been in the money twice.  If you look at his running lines he has closed like a freight train but usually too late and the results weren't there.  We'll tuck his name away to keep our eye on.

Under Control (Brz) looked good on paper, and I respect Motion enough, but as I said pre race race, I'd like to see a bit more out of the 6 YO gelding.  I saw a nice closing turn of foot.

Anyways, keep plugging 'cappers.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The River City Handicap Grade 3 at Churchill Downs

Silver Max: Photo by Reed Palmer

Nothing like a handicappers holiday to refresh my handicappers mind.

The Turk hasn't felt very Turk-like over the past several months, as the demands of work have consumed any free time I may have previously had. I've added some efficiency to my job performance and realized that a little R&R, especially on my traditional handicapping and blogging day of Saturday could be possible.

But what to say?  I found the time, do I have anything left to add to my handicapping? Of course!  Ye' Ol Turk is always improving on his analytic skills and coming back off a layoff has done nothing but reinvigorate my mathematical mind.  Math?  It's horse racing Turk, what's up with Math?  It's all math friends, handicapping to me is the numbers on the paper, the incremental times, the workouts, the breakdown of the runners over a long and short period of time.  It's a crossword with 1,200 lb animals running about.  Betting?  Well that's just economics. I view betting as strictly an investment, an opportunity cost.  I measure success solely in terms of return on investment, and while I'm OK with breaking even over periods of time, I'm also realistic to know that I have to hit on a certain percentage of my exotics or my ROI won't stay positive for long.

I've been blogging for six years and my one consistent message has been to preach consistency:  do the same things, day in, day out, do what you do well more often than not.

For me it's about assembling a base handicap, tossing who I can, establishing potential winners and then developing an investment.  I like to blog exotics, but quite frankly Win and Exacta are my bread and Butter.  Not sexy, but I churn out positive ROI with consistency, allowing me to swing at the fences now and then.  If you can't consistently pick winners or exactas you have no business making an investment on a Tri or Super anyhow.




So what to make of today's River City Handicap? Well, the track should be Firm.  The weather is expected to be dry and cool.  I like these grade 3 turf routes.  The horses are the superstars of the industry, they are just honest animals grinding out a living on the edge of the big time.  A horse like Silver Max is the type of horse I adore: modest background, consistent, long career, successful.  18 of 26 in the money, 2 wins in 3 starts at CD, 10 wins in 20 turf starts.  He takes on the big guys in G1 matches and he holds his own.

Villandry is a bit of a stretch for me, but he's cutting back in distance, and I like his running lines of "gaining, gaining, rallied, all out, willingly" in his last five.  I'm thinking he could upset here but his lifetime stats don't give great hope: 3 wins in 11 turf starts, $191,000 career earnings, 10% of Silver Max's.

Gentleman's' Kitten looks dangerous and has been training over the CD turf course since mid October. Trainer Maker is 24% of the break and 25% over the grass.  Hernandez up and has won 30%of his races in 2014.  Freshened this summer after a few clunkers, last two encouraging.

Canadian Aldous Snow is first back off a break since mid September, something Trainer Pierce wins 24% of the time. A grade 3 winner at 1 1/12 miles over grass, he's been no threat in subsequent step ups in class to Grade 2 and 1.

Set the Sail I have too low in my base handicap.  I bullet this week at 4f shows quickness and fitness.  he's 9 of 17 in the exacta on turf and 5 of 8 in the exacta at CD on the turf.  He was Place in this event a year ago.  Lots to like, I'll be shading him up as high as Place.

Guys Reward is the definition of journeyman at age 7, with 40 turf starts, 21 of 40 in the money and 1 in 5 turf races a winner.  I expect competitive and I expect him to be coming late.  Show or Place not out of question but I'm gambling its no higher than Show or Exotic fourth.

I'm predicting Motion's Under Control (Brz) could be the one that screws up my bet.  A nice horse that I'd like to see more of before I back him.

I'm not sure of the bet yet but I'm thinking some sort of Super with 4-6 OVER 2-3-4-6-9 OVER 2-3-4-5-7-9 OVER 2-3-5-7-9, a $2 bet for $248.  That's too rich and I need to trim, so possibly I'll go 4-6 OVER 2-3-4-6-9 OVER 2-3-5-9 OVER 2-3-5-7-9, a $2 bet for $172.  I'll think about that a bit more.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 19 November 2011; The G3 River City Handicap and G1 Hollywood Turf Cup

Blues Street with Albarado, up, comes streaking home in the River City Handicap, a key race in a pleasing day of gambling for me. Thanks to the Louisville Courier-Journal online, the talented Jennie Rees and photograph most likely by Reed Palmer.

I felt really bad yesterday after posting my blog as I think I committed the ultimate sin; it was boring, and worse, preachy. The purpose of The Turk and the Little Turk primarily is to highlight my handicapping methodology developed over a long time. It's not sexy, nor is it overly technical. I would love to talk about taking months with my slide rule and stacks of old race forms while I developed a mathematical view of a horses ability to cover a route of turf and how his time would relate to other horses. Never happened and I wouldn't know where to start. I stress consistent handicapping using a horses ability over his career to determine his chances on any given day. Workouts, Class, Trainer Stats, these are the things that I key on, with a nod to Pace. I ignore two year olds because there just isn't enough imperical data on their past performances for me to make my analysis complete.

My post was boring yesterday, something of a dog, and I'll work harder at that now that I'm calling myself out. What wasn't boring was the results; the Turk took down over $2,000 on wagers of about $150 by just doing what I do best- ignoring the pre race hype, building a base handicap,not getting too hung up on if I have chalk on top, studying the tote board leading to post, and making sound bets, constructed on principles I use week in and week out.

Let's get after this!



When you ignore morning lines and pre race news articles over the course of time you'll notice your handicaps will share many similarities with the tote board and the race day lines; With experience you should be able on a 10 horse field to identify the 3 longest shots as well as the top three, with the middle four up for subjective slotting. What I like about ignoring the pre race morning line is it gives me something to compare my base handicap to and allows me to spot a contrarian position I may have taken. Sometimes it's just a subtle difference like my chalk being the Place or Show horse.

I took some similar views on yesterday's races: I felt strongly about my chalks and was prepared to build bets around them. In both races I used my base handicap and built a matrix bet, keeping my bet exposure low. in my boring post I stressed I was just in skills maintenance mode and didn't plan on going for broke with my bets. Both races I crafted $2 Superfecta Bets for reasonable amounts of money, $30-50 dollars each. In both races I built $10 Exacta bets with singled chalks. I kept things simple but the results were stunning.

We try to put our money where our mouth is at The Turk. 10% of today's winnings went to horse charities that are dear to me. The Turk has donated either cash or solicited online auctions that benefited horse charities to the tune of over $2,000 this year. I only say that because I'm imploring the good people of this sport to take care of our own, the workers on the backstretch and our retired runners. There are some wonderful people out there doing tireless work to save every equine life. Those people inspire me deeply. These are very tough economic times and anything you can spare goes a long way.

OK, I've now been boring, preachy, and I've solicited charitable contributions all in one blog post. I'll shut-up for now.

Good Times. Have fun, Turk Out

The Nominations Are In: November 21, 2008

It's a good time of the year for the Turk. Thanksgiving is only six days away, and some great stakes races unfold over the next eight days. Tomorrow I'll be handicapping two in depth at two different tracks.

At Woodbine Race 6, The Kennedy Road, G3, 6f raced over WO version of faux dirt for 3 YO and Up. The ML chalk is Storm Treasure at 5-2. Storm Treasure is coming off a 97 Beyer effort in the Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint, finishing third behind Desert Code and Diabolical. I think there are a few horses that could win this race that will go off at least 4-1. That's what we like.

I'll then turn my attention to Race 9 at Churchill Downs, The River City Handicap, G3, raced 1 1/8 miles on genuine Kentucky turf for 3 YO and up. ML 6-5 Thorn Song, coming off a weak 9th in the Breeder's Cup Mile looks to bounce back for trainer Dale Romans with Robbie Albarado up. The 5 YO will attract money and a betting opportunity should open up if he falters.

The Turk is going to stay busy during the next week or so. On Sunday the Turk and the Little Turk will be handicapping at WO The Bessarbian Stakes at 7f for 3 YO and up and also Hollywood Park, The Hollywood Prevue Stakes, 7f for 2 YO.

Starting on Thanksgiving and running through Sunday, there will be 9 stake races, including the G1 Cigar Mile, the G1 Citation Handicap, G2 Clark Handicap and G2 Demoiselle that I'll be watching and handicapping. This is like Christmas come early, or better yet, Turk-ey Day. Gobble Gobble....