The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts on this race with you today. The Turk is in the Spa! Yes, for the first time since before COVID, I'm returning to Saratoga. I lived in Saratoga in 1986 while I was training to operate Nuclear Reactors for the US Navy. It was the 1986 meet where this casual horse racing fan from my childhood became a closet race fan before embracing my red ink pen and nerdy handicapper persona after leaving the Navy. Ironically I was stationed onboard the USS Louisville, SSN-24, Best of the Breed. Louisville, with myself onboard, fired some of the first missiles on the opening night of Operation Desert Storm. I digress, but it is funny the coincidences of life.
The 1986 Whitney was won by Lady's Secret, the first filly since the 40's to win. Some of my favorite horses since I became a full fledged fan of the game in the late 80's have won this race: Commentator in 2005 and 2008, Lawyer Ron in 2007, Tizway in 201, but 2010's Blame has me thinking about the Breeders' Cup Classic and an unbeatable Zenyatta, America's favorite, beloved. Cody's Wish is on a Zenyatta like roll right now with the American public, I can't help but think could he be meeting his Blame today? I was there watching in disbelief that Zenyatta, bad start and all, did not catch Blame that cold night in Churchill Downs. Does this happen to me again? Life is funny with the parallels and coincidences.
I know as a gambler, that will be my intention, to bet against him. I hope he proves me wrong, but this is a horse race investment and I'm thinking about high risk-high reward. Let's get it on!
I'm expecting Fast Dirt. The Weather is inclement for a few hours Friday but Saturday looks good. It's a small field, six horses, so watch for scratches and changes here.
Just a few relevant videos with The Met Mile the most relevant.
8 July 2023: BEL; Suburban G2; 1 1/4 Mile Fast Dirt
10 June 2023: BEL; Met Mile G1; 1 Mile Fast Dirt
8 July 2023; PrM; Cornhusker Handicap G3; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
1 July 2023; EIP; Stephen Foster G1; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
Whitney G1; 1 1/8 Miles
Let's take a closer look at my handicapping analysis.
There are 4 wins in 25 lifetime starts at this distance!
It's been a very long time since I had a horse in my fair line at 50% odds to win. Cody's Wish morning line is something like 1-2 and I have to think this horse will be the post time favorite. Even at 66% win odds, there is still a 33% chance he loses. As a gambler, with this type of underlay, and I think it's fair to call any horse at 1-2 an underlay going a distance they have never won at, and I want to take a swing at beating him.
How I assemble my exacta? Sitting here in Western New York on Thursday Night I'm contemplating wheeling Charge It OVER White Abarrio, Zandon and Cody's Wish, a $2 bet for $6. For real value, I think I should go Charge It OVER the field, a $2 Bet for $10 and hope beyond hope that Giant Game or Last Samurai Place. I'm not emotional about Charge It and quote frankly, I could swap Charge It for White Abarrio who I think is improving. This is gambling, not an exercise in picking the best horses. Always remember that and always try to exploit these feel good moments when betting dollars surge towards a fan favorite. Yes, 7 out of 10 races, Cody's Wish walks away with this, but I just need Saturday to be one of the 3 of 10.
Have fun friends. Turk will be in the Clubhouse Section K with a bunch of rowdy degenerate gamblers, I hope to see some of you there.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. For those of you who have never read my blog, I'm The Turk and I've been handicapping and sharing my thoughts with this blog since 2008 and I've been playing the horses since 1986. I'd like to thank The Thorofan for putting up with my ramblings hosting my thoughts today.
I must admit something: In all that time of handicapping and horse race watching, I've never played Ellis Park. I knew it was in Kentucky, knew it was old, had no bias against it, but never played it. A few years ago I shifted my focus to older horses running routes of grass, and Ellis just isn't in my orbit. I also knew Churchill Downs bought the facility, so hopefully this stately old track that was modeled after Saratoga won't be sold off just for the value of the land.
Notice the highly unusual 90 degree chute for their mile course, just like Saratoga. The race will start and stop right in front of the grandstand.
The weather is a wild card. It's very hot today but tomorrow there is a chance for severe weather even hail. Make sure you check out the Ellis Park website and stay close to what's happening, but I'm handicapping assuming fast dirt for now.
This time of the year with older dirt horses you can get a pretty good view of current form, as all eight of the horses have 3-5 starts by now. These horses also travel in the same circles mostly and compete in the same high profile races. I like recency video handicapping. I focus on the trip, the pace, and then I like to look at the horse's stretch runs when ahead, pressing or faltering. I'm no horse flesh expert, and while I like to watch the horses in the paddock, they all look on the muscle to me, so I don't glean much from that, but I think its really important to bring context to the past performance, as good as they are at condensing a lot of information in a uniform fashion. Most people don't have the time for that. I'm a boutique handicapper, 3-4 races per weekend, sometimes less. I focus on the quality of my review and not the quantity. I use to do the speed handicapping thing, not good.
Anyways, Let's get after it!
Stephen Foster Handicap G1: EP; 1 1/8 Miles
Like I was saying previously, these horses travel in the same circles. The video below gives you a very good cross section of the runners. I will say, I think this is an impressive field for only 8 horses. You could make a case for any of the runners in my top six. I stopped investing time in dirt racing a few years ago as the fields shrunk and the quality of the remaining competition became so-so. This is a nice division currently, minus a few not here of exceptional quality, and there is quality and depth in the ranks.
Yes, this is 4 YO and UP, and by June/July I start to consider the 4 YO's more seriously. The Uncle Mo son Speed Bias is eye catching and a great price most likely. No matter what I bet, I'll have a W-P-S on him I reckon.
I've got a coin toss between Rattle N Roll and Smile Happy as the best horses in the gate. Rattle N Roll has decent early speed but not enough in this field to be too close at first turn, but very good closing speed. Three wins straight. 8 wins in 15 Fast dirt tries. 3 wins in 4 starts in 2023. Smile Happy can run well early, can run well late. Blazing in the Alysheba in early May. the 4 YO is 7 of 8 lifetime in the money and if it gets sloppy, should be very good.
I threw a blanket over my next group. The beforementioned Speed Bias should have the best price. Cutting back 1/16 for Trainer Moquett who is looking for first stakes win in a long while. Training very sharply.
Western Will Power is the Brisnet Prime Power, Class Rating and Best Speed at Distance highest rated. Trainer Cox and Prat combined at 27% in 410 starts in 2023. Early speed, slows late and adding a 1/16 from last time out. 5 of 5 at the Distance Win-Place, 11 of 14 Win-Place over fast dirt and 13 of 16 Lifetime Win Place.
Proxy has the inside post and should be on the rail most of the trip. excellent late speed on display last time out at Oaklawn Handicap. Stidham is 23% off of a layoff going back to late April. 7 of 8 lifetime in the money at the distance.
I never know what to do with Stilleto Boy. No doubt in my mind he will be the race leader at the first turn and most likely the second turn. 1 win in 5 starts at the distance. 3 wins in 19 fast dirt starts. 2 wins in last 10. 9, yes 9 Show Finishes in 22 starts. I expect him to falter (famous last words).
I'm going to be playing exactas and at my own risk I am tossing Last Samurai and Happy American. I like Last Samurai but it's a loaded field.
Oaklawn Handicap G2: 22 April 2023; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
Santa Anita Handicap G1: 4 March 2023; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt.
Pimlico Special G3: 19 May 2023; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt
Blame Stakes G3: CD 3 June 2023; 1 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
Alysheba G2: CD 5 May 2023; 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt
Ben Ali G3: KEE 22 April 2023; 1 3/16 Miles Fast Dirt
So what to do with all this? I like to play exactas, so no reason to deviate. The best case scenario for me I don't see happening: a longer price winning over a mid pack price. I also don't want to play it too safe. Lets single Speed Bias to Win with Rattle N Roll to Place. A $2 bet. Sorry to disappoint with something better than that. I may change my thinking based on track conditions and scratches, as I'd love to find a way to slip Last Samurai in.
I have a correction to make to: I bet Ellis Park once, Kentucky Downs Preview Day. Now that Arlington Park is gone, Kentucky Downs is my favorite North American track, and that was the allure back in 2018. The funny thing is I said in 2018 that I don't think I ever handicapped Ellis Park either!
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, I am the Turk, a 37 year horse handicapper who has been blogging since 2008. My handicapping these days is primarily for races run over a route of grass, but an occasional foray onto dirt is always enjoyable. I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing me this opportunity today.
My handicapping methods are a derivative of styles learned from reading handicapping authors like Tom Ainsile, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz, and when I was a younger, The Happy Handicapper, Robert Summers. Yes, I refer to myself in the third person as The Turk. Originally I did this to protect my identity because I wasn't sure if my employer would frown upon an employee with a certain amount of fiduciary responsibilities writing about gambling. Oh, how the times have changed. For anyone who joined the work force in the 1980's, just think back to what was acceptable behavior and personal appearance back then compared to now. I'm not saying it was better or worse, I'm just saying it's very different. In today's climate, writing about horse racing and gambling will most likely cause you to be ostracized for being a bit weird, but in the spectrum of workplace weird, on the harmless side of the scale. What does any of this have to do with horse racing? I started to think about older horses when I looked at Rated R Superstar, the 1 horse in the Oaklawn Handicap, the $1.0 MM Grade 2 race at Oaklawn Park I am focused on today. This will be the 10 year old gelded son of Kodiak Kowboy ($5,000 fee) 69th race. When I started handicapping horses made more starts, and it wasn't uncommon to see big start counts, but when was the last time in a Grade 2 you saw a 10 YO with that many starts? It's not often. A millionaire winner across the Oaklawn surface and approaching $2.0 MM in career earnings, I have a special place in my heart of the hard knocking veterans. His performance for his career in blacktype is just steady and consistent. Follow this link to read more about Rated R Superstar's 10th season debut from earlier this year.
Do you put time into studying the science and data behind racing?
In a 29 January 2011 published paper entitled, The Effect of Age on Thoroughbred Race Performance, authors Marshall and Marksteiner generated data on the impact to Beyer Speed Figs over time. Horses were grouped into 25 categories based on age and the table above shows the average difference between the speed figure a horse earned in a particular race and that horse’s career mean speed figure.
In Rated R Superstar's case, 55 horses made 565 total starts when they were greater than 9 years old. Speed figures for the horses running in these 565 races average 7.1 points or 0.5 standard deviations below their career mean speed figure (Diff and St Diff). This differential translates into 2.9 lengths for a 6 furlong race. It may seem obvious, but I find the curve up and the curve away to/from peak performance by age to be the interesting thing here and it fits my fact pattern for analyzing horses of different age competing against each other. Interesting yes, handicapping actionable data? I focus on recency, typically less than a year and less than past six starts, to peg current form and don't try to view the career starts and performance like this, but still, fascinating.
Ok, I clearly did not understand the assignment! Lets get after it.
It's a bit early to figure out what the track conditions will be. Weather is calling for some rain on Friday and slightly dryer Saturday.
The Essex Handicap G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 18 March 2023 at Oaklawn Park
The Gulfstream Park Mile G2: 1 Mile on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023
The Santa Anita Handicap G1: 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023
Recency. These three races seem to really pick up on today's contestants abilities and possibly their deficiencies. Let's put a pin in that for now.
The Oaklawn Handicap G2: 1 1/8 Miles over Dirt for 4 YO and Up
This is a compelling field, a blanket finish style of handicap, with a mix of early speed and closing turns of foot that I expect will intersect over the last panel. I like Last Samurai if I'm singling. Two 100+ Beyer wins over this track in grade 3's over past two months. 4 wins in 9 OP starts. Only one win in 9 tries at the distance, 25% winner in 20 starts over fast dirt. He's not outclassed by much, working well, solid connections and breeding, little to dislike but could easily finish out of the money too. I'm betting that his earlier tactical will put him on the rail out of the gate and his late speed will give him a look at the wire.
The next five runners to me are all toss ups with little to differentiate them. In no order, Pletcher adds Blinkers to Charge It. The horse looked unfocused and had no real fight in the Gulfstream Park Mile. Blinkers for Pletcher is a 18% win for first in 56 tries and blinkers in general drive a 19% win in 62 tries. Far outside but big early speed. Position and pace may dictate how much fight he has this race.
Proxy is a late speed monster. 5 Place or Shows in 7 starts at this distance, 1 win. Look at his close in Santa Anita Handicap, his belated late run in Pegasus G1, right down his Past Performances. Rosario, up, won with him in The G1 Clark last November where he ran on the pace. I expect he will try something similar.
The before mentioned Rated R Superstar should not win this race but his 25 starts over OP Dirt is more races than career starts for anyone else in the field and he will bring his best.
The ageless Kent Desormeaux rode a magnificent Santa Anita Handicap with Stilleto Boy who cannot be ignored. Show in the Pegasus at 45-1 two back. 4 of 4 lifetime in the money at OP, 14 of 18 in the money on fast dirt, early speed, Could be a real disruptive force here.
Finally, Classic Causeway at 4 YO makes second dirt start after spending the back half of 3 YO campaign on the turf. $1.4 M winner from some early 3 YO success, could go either way now.
What to do with all this? Most likely I'll be watching the tote board (which has become an increasingly frustrating exercise as late money pours in with no time to react for the little guy) and looking for a value play that runs counter to my handicap. A $2 Exacta of Rated R Superstar, Stilleto Boy, Last Samurai and Proxy, with two of the longer odds covered in Win-Place and two of the shorter odds in Place only is $12. I'd like to see Charge It, who is plenty capable, have a better effort before I back again.
I'll most likely come up with 10 more permutations of this bet construction before post time, so have fun with it yourself and good luck!
Welcome friends to
The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 14th year of providing good handicaps and terrible blogging to
people who never asked for it, and Happy July 4th Weekend. I'd like to thank the
good people at The Thorofan for inviting
me to handicap my annual start to summer racing, The
Stephen Foster Handicap G2.
Poor Stephen Foster. He wrote some of the
most memorable songs in Americana, including Camptown Races, Old Susanna and My
Old Kentucky home, yet he died penniless at age 37 after smashing his head into
a chamber pot as he passed out from a high fever. We remember him each year for
this race, and his songs are forever ingrained into people of my generation and
before me, you know, when kids use to play outside and frolicked in the summer
before electronics and social media.
It's a seven horse field,
the weather looks to be wet, and the track conditions at least on Friday were Fast
but check here Saturday. Lets get one thing straight: I'm unhappy with Churchill Downs Inc, how they
have sabotaged Illinois racing, and their forcing the sale of Arlington
International Racetrack. I loved Arlington, I will always love Arlington and I
will never forgive the suits at CDI for putting their own interests ahead of
everything else. Arlington was a beautiful and modern facility, in a sport that
doesn't really have beautiful and modern facilities. Its turf course was the
best in North America. I'm done gripping, but this is exhibit A why horse racing
is failing and will continue to fail, a lack of a cohesive strategy to grow the
sport and track owners placing their interests over the heath of the sport.
While I said I don't like seven horse fields, at least this field has some
consistency and potentially could make for an interesting outcome. Let's get
after it!
Haskell Stakes G1: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt. I don't generally look at video
more than 3 months old, but the quality of Mandaloun really shines.
Alysheba Stakes G2: 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt. Watch Mott's VERY Game runner.
Blame Stakes $198K: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt. Americanrevolution a
heavily bet 4th and just looked empty in the stretch.
Oaklawn Handicap G2: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt. Dallas Stewart Trained
Last Samuri , D.Wayne Lukas is his new conditioner.
I think it's a bettors race. My instincts tell me that Mandaloun deserves
the 2-1 ML. 6 of 10 Lifetime wins, 2 wins at distance, 5 wins in 9 fast dirt
starts, 2 of 2 in the money at CD and Brad Cox Trainer, 28% off the layoff, 28%
dirt winner and 26% graded stakes wins. I don't like first time returning horses
from overseas, but he has been training at increasing distances at CD since
late May.
One play is to single him and play a few value horses in the exacta,
something like a 6 - (1, and 7), with Caddo River and
Last Samuri providing some sizzle.
Alternatively, toss
Mandaloun and play Olympiad to win with those value runners on the
exacta. Mott's the master at bringing horses into good spots, and
Olympiad is 4 wins in 4 starts in 2022, 6 wins in 9 Fast Dirt Starts, and
a last start win in the Alysheba G2 here at 1 1/16 miles.
Olympiad will press the pace. 3 (1,7) exacta.
Finally, you could play
6-3- (2-1-7) a $2 Trifecta for $6. You could play with some combinations of
Place and Show, you get the idea. These are fun races to bet. Be patient, focus
on the toteboard odds, don't be emotional about the horses themselves. Slot
them, Value them, Bet Them, pray they all finish safe. Have fun friends, Turk
Out.
Welcome Friends to The Turk and Little Turk Blog, with a narrow focus on handicapping, primarily older turf runners, since 2008. In those years we have written over 680 blog posts and given bet suggestions on almost all of them. Our most recent handicap of the Pacific Classic gave a $2 Exacta Bet for $20 that returned $93.20. Past results are not an indication of future, but over a long period of time this blog has offered bet constructions and documented the success. While its terribly difficult to eek out positive ROI race after race, I have proven that focusing on a small group of races and really analyzing in depth can allow me to make good race track investments. My objectives: Relaxation, small profits and sharing my insights with my small but passionate reader base.
Kentucky Downs is one of my favorite tracks, and with the unsettled future of Arlington Race Track, is easily my favorite turf course in the United States. Tomorrow marks the first of six days of live racing of this boutique meet and I hope to play at least one race every day. Let's get after the Dueling Ground Derby $750K.
Saratoga Derby Invitational G1: 7 Aug 21; 1 3/16 Firm Turf: Yes This Time, Palazzi, Cellist, De Jour
Dueling Grounds Derby 2018- Posted just for reference. 10 Starters
This is a race of potential, as three year old turf horses are generally an evolution. For that reason I typically avoid three year old turf races because of the uncertainty, but I say that and uncertainty, big fields and plenty of handle can produce the type of fun that makes me look forward to the Kentucky Downs boutique meet every year.
The handicap above is what I call my Base Handicap. You can see in the ML Column the Morning Line represented in decimal form. 26% above 100% is not a mistake, that is what drives the administrative costs associated with racing. At some tracks this number has drifted above 130%. This represents a real challenge for the horseplayer to overcome and another reason why betting tote board favorites is a bad idea.
I actually don't have a lot of respect for the Morning Line. I respect and know some of the people whose name is associated with these tracks for DRF, and they are just overworked. They don't have the two hours per race I'll often dedicate to analysis. That said, I like to show them just to get a feel for how Joe Public Bettor is going to start off looking at this race. One that pops out to me is how undervalued Red Hornet is by the ML compared to my analysis. The Fair Line takes the odds back to 100% and places win odds on the field. My fair line will have many more 50-1, 2% or longer odds on the field than a morning line will because I don't have the 26% to deal with. As you can see, I've assigned an 84% chance one of the top five horses in my base handicap will win the race. While I don't typically place Win Bets, Modern Science (Ire) and Last Samurai have a 10% chance of winning, and with unpredictability in the trips these horses might face, would be worth a $2 win bet at odds provided the public doesn't over bet them. This is a form of Tote Board Handicapping I encourage in these large fields without dominant top contenders, just pick some prices off the board that your Fair Odds Line tell you have value.
What am I going to do with this?
My indecisive $1 Exacta is 3-5-8-9-12 OVER 3-4-5-8-9-11-12 for $30 could still produce a 20% return, the low end of my investment strategy threshold. I need to be a bit more adventurous and not be so worried about losing and instead give myself an opportunity for a solid +50% ROI.
With one removal the bet drops to $20. I'm going to pull De Jour down. Why the ML and Turk Line chalk? He is starting in post 12 and his late speed hasn't been great. I'm going to assume he gets gobbled up. I like the value my $20 Bet represents even if its likely to lose.
I don't know what the track conditions will be like as it most likely will start raining as the day goes on. I wouldn't change anything with my choice either way.
