The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Nassau on Turf at Woodbine

Clement: Photo by Nancy Rokos

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk.  It's nice to break away from the Triple Crown trail to handicap races where my real passion is, turf running.  A route of turf over a beautiful course really stirs the Turk's horse racing imagination.  With all due respect to mega trainers like Pletcher, et al, I most admire  the turf training maestros like a Johnathan Sheppard, John Gosden or Christophe Clement, pictured left.  The term Conditioner seems to have been created for him.

Woodbine's turf course is one of my favorites in North America, just behind Arlington.  Woodbine is far ahead of Arlington in generating stakes races and purses.  While I'm playing Arlington today, for a beautiful early season Saturday, the card should be much better than it is.  How a Saturday card, in what is a short race season at Arlington, cannot contain a single stakes race or have a purse over $25,000, is very concerning to me about the future of that track.

Anyway, that's a subject for someone who knows what they are talking about, a serious journalist or blogger, and not this idiot handicapper.

Let's get it on!

Woodbine Race 8: The Nassau Grade 8, 1 Mile on Turf

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	Stellar Path (Fr)/4	A+
Place	Deceptive Vision/9	A
Show	Resistivity/11	A--
Exotic	Overheard/3	B++
Also Ran's	Winning Rhythm/12	B
	Sky Treasure/7	B-
	Strut the Course/1	C++
	Skylander Girl/2	C
	Surtsey/5	C
	Llanarmon/6	C
	Copper Kitten/8	C
	Silent Star/10	C
	Woodbine Race 8: Post Time 4:45 ET	The Nassau G2
	1 Mile on Turf	For F&M, 3 YOs and Up

I'm focused on faster handicapping.  I'm developing a better technique for when I am at the track and making a spot play, looking at Past Performances for the first time seconds after one race ends and with only enough time to quickly review and get to the windows.  I've become to accustomed to sitting at the table in dead silence, with my charts and graphs, and taking tons of time to assemble complex exotic bets.  At the track, I toss all that in the garbage for a few spot plays here and there.

I'm typically not a fan of betting any race I haven't put alot of preparation into, but what the heck, I'm letting my hair down (metaphysically speaking that is!)

Stellar Path and Deceptive Vision were the top horses coming out of my cursory review.  Stellar Path is a versatile 4 YO, 10 of 14 in the money, 7 of 10 in the money at the distance, and coming in off a less than firm turf win.  Deceptive Vision comes in off a win at KEE on the dirt, a switch Pierce wins 50% of the time, albeit on 4 tries.  Husbands up.

A group of four horses made it into my exotic pool.  I say exotic loosely, as I'm looking at Exacta primarily, maybe Tri, maybe not. Resistivity, a Mark Casse trainee, has been training sharply and looks ready to step up in class.  Expect a great price.  Overheard, 10 of 11 in the money on turf and 3 of 3 at WO, has been training up since an early April fourth at KEE.  Winning Rhythm I think would like more distance, has only 1 win in 6 at this distance, none at WO, and is 0 of 3 in 2015.  Sid Attard first time with trainer stats 9% on 22 tries.  Sky Treasure I expect will be on ticket anywhere but first.  Casse's mare spent the Winter at SA.

Simple Exacta: $2 Bet  4, 9 OVER 4,9 3,7,11,12 for $20

Simple Triactor ($0.20 bet available) $2 Bet 4, 9 OVER 4,9,3,7,11,12 OVER 4,9,3,7,11,12 is $80.

I doubt I care that much so we will try to thin that down to something liker this:  $2 Bet 4,9 over 4,9 11,3,12 over 9,11,3,12,7 for $58.

Have fun friends!

Turk Out

The Nomination Is In: Breeders' Cup Saturday Breeders' Cup Turf Grade I

The Turk's beatable chalk in today's Breeders' Cup Turf is pictured to the left, the Juddmonte Farm runner Spanish Moon.

Race 8 at Santa Anita Post Time 5:57 ET; The Breeders' Cup Turf Grade I; 1 1/2 Miles on off Baldwin Avenue grass for 3 YOs and Up.



Last year's Champ Conduit (Ire) is here again. the 4 YO has only 1 win in 2009, the one start that a horse not named See the Stars or Cima de Triomphe started in. I think he's too good to not be in the top 4 but I'm backing Spanish Moon to win.

Spanish Moon, the son of El Prado, has 2 wins in 2009. He'll run on lasix today. Comes here off a Grade II and Grade I win the last two times out and lost by a nose in a Grade I in Dubai. Fallon gets the mount in Juddmonte Green, Pink and White silks.

Presious Passion is a 6YO with 41 career starts, 38 on Turf. 2009 was a good year for the gelding from Royal Anthem (Theatrical) winning a Grade II at 1 3/8, a Grade I at 1 3/8s and Grade I at 1 1/4. Prefers harder turf and should find the footing to his liking. Trainer Hartmann has abysmal stats, a 7% win rate, 3% won last start, 9% Turf starts. Up and Down, where will he be today?

Dar Re Mi(GB), a John Gosden trainee, has two Grade I wins in 2009 and a third lost through DQ. Dettori up on the Watership Down homebred, the filly will have lasix on raceday to "level the playing field". Solid, not spectacular but very solid.

Might sit this one out or just look for a value win or exacta. We'll see, Have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: April 11, 2009: The Blue Grass Stakes GI

As a handicapper, I'm OK. I'm not big bettor and my livelihood isn't tied to cashing IRS tickets. If I was a shrewd whale bettor, I imagine I'd walk in the other direction of today's final two prep races before the Kentucky Derby. Why? Unpredictability supreme. The P word, parity. In the first race I'm looking at, The Blue Grass Stakes, we are presented with lots of moving parts: A synthetic surface, some long layoff's, some falling stars, some rising stars, and just a bunch of parity. One thing of importance to remember is we aren't handicapping the Kentucky Derby, but the Blue Grass Stakes. The horses don't know this is a prep race. Some of them will go on to be successful dirt runners, competitive in graded stakes races. That dirt affinity won't help them here. Some of them will go on to get crushed at Churchill Downs in a few weeks, yet will have fine careers on fake dirt or turf. You have to handicap what's in front of you and you have to shut out the hype machine. For the sharp eyed amongst you, that's none other then culturally relevant 2006 Blue Grass Stakes Champ Sinister Minister with G. Gomez, up. Gomez is up today with another long shot, Massone.

Race 9 KEE: The Blue Grass Stakes Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on fake dirt of some variation that I can't keep straight, for 3 YOs.



Bet strategy in a race like this to me will be about tying my hopes to one horse, and then fashioning multiple straight bets, exacta or trifecta, around him. With the size of the field, and the parity, horses filling out the exotic tickets will add lots of value. That's what I'm looking for if I bet a crap shoot like this. I've chosen Hold Me Back, most likely the chalk, to build around. The Turk likes to break the field into A, B and C horses, reserving D for non factors. "A" will generally contain the chalk and could-be chalks, and "B" group contains a contrarian bunch that could easily find the exotic tickets, and my "C" group I reserve for live but long horses, most likely no better then Show. I feel like 9 of the 11 here could have a blanket thrown over them and lumped into one group. Slight and subtle clues in my mind point the way to who has the best probability of success. I have Mafaaz (GB) pretty high, and he could flop and the Ol' Turk could look silly, but this isn't a beauty contest, I'm trying to cash good tickets for minimal investment and you ain't going to do that without consistency and occasionally trusting your instincts. Trainer Gosden is a cocky bloke that the Turk loves. While I have mixed feelings about how a race in Kempton earns anyone a place in the Kentucky Derby, the horse is a scrapper.

This will be a tote board watcher and an exercise in bettor restraint. I should pass, but I won't, I'll place some reasonable bets and hope for the best. If I win, I won't gloat, not that I ever do, because these are educated and reasoned guesses, nothing more.

Little Turk is feeling General Quarters today. Mrs. Turk has a soft spot for Cliffy's Future. Both spent 20 seconds on their selection and I'd give them even money with me to be right. Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday March 18, 2009: Kempton KY Derby Challenge

The Turk was perhaps a bit too flippant in discussing the Kempton Derby "Win and You're In" Challenge Stakes. While I think the execution of how to open up one spot in the Derby for a Euro 3 YO is flawed, the idea has grown on me.

I found this to be an exciting race, especially the last furlong. Trainer John Godsen, a Turk favorite, seems sincere in bringing Mafaaz to the States soon and training up for the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. I would love to see Spring of Fame come as well. Godsen is really something. I love the fact he cut his teeth in Santa Anita, has been doing his thing in Europe for so many years, and doesn't seem hesitant in the least to come to the America and go right to it. I love his arrogance, and our sport needs confident arrogance.

It's not an original thought of mine, I read this at a UK racers blog and I apologize for not remembering where I read it, but it is ironic that Mafaaz's owner Hamdan Al Maktoum has found his way into the Kentucky Derby, while his brother spends, well, princely sums and can't buy his way in.

The pace was a plodding 1:55:13







And yes to the sharp eyed amongst you, that beautiful foal is none other then the product of equine royalty Rags to Riches and Giant's Causeway. I'm betting this filly will be something very special!