The Nomination Is In: The Buena Vista G2 at Santa Anita

Carressa- Benoit Photo

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, established in 2008 to share horse racing handicapping and bet construction primarily.  Other blogs do a much better job of talking about the industry, the people, the events, I keep my view narrow and I hope my rabid fan base enjoys that.


The turf pickings were slim today. Yes, I am primarily a 4 Year old and Up Turf Handicapper.  It's the sort of racing I like, I'm good at it, and I love the amount of data I can find on these animals more than anything else.  I like data.  My past performance of choice is typically DRF Formulators but I have used Timeform US, including using them independently and simultaneously on races.  I'm not endorsed and I pay for my own products, and I just find the Formulator a comfortable fit.  I will shift to Timeform for certain meets and certain races, but I'm a mechanic at heart, I use the right tool for the right job.



While the pickings were slim, I like the makeup of this race, The Buena Vista G2 at Santa Anita, 1 Mile over firm turf.  By the way you'll find a link to track conditions and scratches and changes here.  I've seen mixed thoughts on the weather but I wouldn't expect soaking showers.

Let's get after it!




What's the first thing you'll notice?  I've spotted in my humble opinion a large underlay in the form of Jolie Olyimpica (Brz).  Hopefully the betting public takes the horse to 8-5 like the track handicapper did because a real opportunity presents itself there.  Let's take a look at some relevant video first.


The Megahertz G3:  1 Mile; Santa Anita; Firm Turf F and M 4/Up; 20 Jan 2020




Las Cienegas Stakes G3; 5 1/2 F Santa Anita; Firm Turf  4 YO and Up F and M; 11 Jan 2020





I love exciting new runners, but that's the fan in me.  The gambler in me doesn't understand how a filly making her second start in the US, coming off a small field 5 1/2 furlong race, gets installed as an 8-5 favorite.  Maybe she goes out and wins with daylight between her and rivals but I want to see results before I go fanboy.  Jolie Olimpica (Brz) should be a fun story this year, but today, I want her to stumble a bit.

I like Carressa to win.  2nd off break for Trainer Shirreffs and a last out winner in the above Megahertz at this distance and conditions.  Tactical speed, must maintain press with the leaders because there is much more late speed than she can handle.  Second turf start after switching surfaces.  Light chalk for me.

Brill on paper wins the class battle.  The $1 million dollar Medaglia d' Oro daughter is regal but so far the results are not there.  In the Megahertz she was in a great spot in the lane and had no response.

If you go two races back to the $82,000 Lady of Shamrock, 1 Mile over Good Turf at Santa Anita you see a more engaged Brill.




Boom or Bust.  Left Hollendorfer barn last summer after a not so good Black Eyed Susan on Preakness Day.  Trainer Chatlos is winless in 6 stakes over last calendar year and Smith jumped mounts to Jolie Olimpica.  Boom or Bust. 

Lady Prancealot (Ire) is a safe option at a good price possibly. Big Late speed.  4 of 6 in the money at distance, 10 of 15 in the money over grass, 6 of 7 in the money at Santa Anita.  Winner in December of 3 YO Grade 1 American Oaks at classic distance over grass.  Trainer Ballas wins 22% of time off of a break this size. 

Mulchy (GB) is interesting to me.  1st time lasix, 1st time North America, 1st time with Trainer Callaghan after leaving John Godsen's barn. Hot jock Rispoli is up, a 22% winner in 94 starts this meet.  I can't imagine a spot in exotic but very interesting to pay attention to. 

Mucho Unusal and Super Patriot round out my exacta possibles.  Mucho Unusal has good tactical speed and some sucess at the distance and over grass.  Place finish in the American Oaks I referenced earlier.   Trainer Yakeen and Rosario, up, have won 63% of 8 starts at Santa Anita.  In the money 8 of 11 lifetime. Super Patriot is Trainer Baltas other runner here, with Rosario hopping off for Mucho Unusual and Fuentes now up.  Late speed  but maybe a bit slow for this group.  7 straight in the money finishes.  Love the claimers aiming high. 

What to make of it?  I'll be paying attention to the will pays from the probables on Twinspires to assemble exactas.  I like:

$1 Bet  2-7-8-4-9 OVER 2-1-7-8-3-4-9 for $30.    I may eliminate some combinations but you get the idea.

Have fun friends!

Turk Out

Post Race Analysis: The Fair Grounds G3 Handicap- How to Use Probables and Will Pay

Factor This: Photo Amanda Hodges Weir

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

The Turk put up another successful handicap and bet yesterday, but with the whopping $1.50 net earnings, I better keep my day job.

Recalling I handicapped The Fair Grounds, a 1 1/8 mile firm turf race for four year old and ups at of all places, Fair Grounds.

I said the following pre-race:

"... I like Michael Stidham's Synchrony or Norm Casse's Dontblametherocket to win.  I gave the edge to  Dontblametherocket mostly because he won the Col Bradley here a month ago, has 5 wins in 8 FG starts, 11 of 13 lifetime in the moiney over grass and 4 wins in last seven starts. This is the gelded son of Blame's 2nd off layoff, a 26% Casse angle.  They are very close, so Synchrony wins the Base Handicap but I have Dontblametherocket current form as the key driver.

 Synchrony is 5 of 5 in the money at FG with 4 wins, 14 of 18 lifetime in the money over grass, 6 of 7 in the money at the distance and has 6 wins in last 15 starts.  As I mentioned this is the 7 YO son of Tapit's first start since early October but training at FG since early January.

I'll be building an exact and I have to decide for sure but assuming I include my three "B" horses and possibly my B- group as Place.  I don't want to over bet so we'll see.

My B group isn't overpowering but all have good trainer/jockey combos and all are the type of 5-6 year old veterans who hang around Place-Show-Exotic race in and race out.  I'm not really sold on the order.  Factor This conditioned by Brian Cox has early speed and Cox/Bridgmohan have won 30% of 50 races over past year at FG.  Cox is outstanding on turf/routes and graded stakes.  Bill Mott's Classic Covey is a 60K ish OC runner primarily with a career best 100 Beyer in a G2 in March 2018. Off since mid October.  Midnight Tea Time has 12 Place/Show finishes in 17 turf starts.  Could be coming at the end.

Sailing Solo, $100,000 Smart Strike colt has only won $102,000 in his five years.  I see promise but no production.  7 of 7 in the money in 2019.  Early Speed will flash like Col Bradley where he led before finishing 5th, 5 back. Extra 1/16th today, same jock.  I dunno.  Ontario Canada Bred Tone Broke is slow but I always like to mention Fort Erie Prince of Wales runners.  The 4 YO transitions from mostly dirt and is a huge wildcard.  Bombs away candidate but don't bet the mortgage..."


I modified what I said just slightly and  bet a 6 horse 1 dollar bet for $30 in which I won $31.50, a 5% ROI, well below my desired 40% baseline.  My bet was 2-4-5-6-8-12 BOXED.    (4-2 won).

Should I have bet at all?  Let the Probables/Will Pay Table help you.  If you are like me, its really hard to track the "Will Pays" scrolling across the side of the screen, but Twinspires, my unsolicited and not sponsored choice of betting apps, makes this easy to see.

On the App/Website screen it looks like this:

I made it a bit easier to understand by picking out my bet from the chart.  You'll note the probable for 4-2 is exactly $31 on a $1 bet, and that is because I made these screen shots after the race started.  I bring this up because you will be looking at this before the race goes to post and the numbers on some of the late movers may change.



So this exercise is, should I have placed my bet?  Recalling the bet again

2-4-5-6-8-12 BOXED.

The bets in RED should NOT have been made.  If the bet was successful, I'd make less than the bet was worth, a semi persistent problem of mine.  The bets in YELLOW are marginal enough to not be bothered making.

I would say betting Synchrony/2 to win was a waste of capital. A Synchrony/Tone Broke/8 Exacta was possible and deserved a stand alone bet.  You could say the same about Dontblametherocket/5 and anyone but Tone Broke.

Factor This/4 with the 6 or the 8 would have been nice, with the 12 marginal but acceptable.

I think the take away is the bet wasn't worth the risk.  I felt pretty confident pre-race that Synchrony or Dontblametherocket would win and so did the betters sending them off $1.40 and $2.30 to $1 respectively.    I should have walked away, the favorites even in this field size were bet down too hard.  The scratch of early speed Sailing Solo didn't help.

My weakness is not as a handicapper but as a bettor.  I am a good gambler in general but in hindsight this was a bad bet and I got bailed out not losing anything when Factor This won.  What should I have done differently besides walk?  Break the bet up and not box it lazily is usually always the takeaway.   Always try to learn something.  Watch the trip of Dontblametherocket.  He was 3, 4 and then 5 wide.  Watch where he shows up next.








 About 10% through the 52 bet challenge and I have a 56% ROI and I'm up about $125 on the year.   I still expect to be break even or negative by the end of the year, small sample size and all, and making mistakes like today will not help.   I will focus much more and walk away when I see this pattern return.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Fair Grounds G3

Synchrony: Photo Michael Burns

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  To those new to this blog, I started handicapping in 1986 and I've been blogging in a really dreadful fashion since September 2008.  I focus on races run over routes of grass primarily by four year old and upwards.  I don't really care about The Kentucky Derby or the Triple Crown except as a fan, I prefer the horses, geldings and mares who are just doing their best in relative anonymity in the dark times of racing.  It's very sad to me how far horse racing has fallen in the cultural lexicon and not even two Triple Crown winners could change that.  At the end of the day, the track owners, horse owners and the breeding farms all act in self interest and the ones that suffer  are the dwindling fans, backside workers and ultimately, the horses not worth much post retirement.  I digress.

I took a few weeks away from the 52 bets in 52 weeks series I am conducting as I just wasn't thrilled with the races available and the track conditions.  I preach walking away if you don't like the race conditions and that's what I did.  I will recap the series results at the end of this blog post, the Turk is off to a pretty good start in 2020 after the last race, the Pegasus Turf.

Let's get after today's race, expected over firm turf at 1 1/8 miles, The Fair Grounds Grade 3.




I'm not sure who set the morning line, but I saw the race very similar to the handicapper.  I don't look at the Morning Lines until my handicap is set, nor do I find them very useful these days with the ever increasing takeout skewing the odds, but what it tells me is I didn't really identify any overlays.  Sometimes boring means less volatility, less volatility means more predictability, more predictability with a larger field isn't a terrible thing for banging out low risk/OK ROI returns.  Not sexy, but a cash bulge at the end of the day is always more sexy than not having dinner money.

I'm not going to spend too much time on video today.  Only two horses enter off of a Graded Stake last time out, five come in off Col. Bradley $123K Handicap at Fairgrounds on 20 January. From a class perspective, this is a pretty similar group with just a few exceptions.  Aw heck, lets look at video of those five.


FG; 18 Jan 2020; 1 1/16 Firm Turf.  Col Bradley Handicap $123,000



I like Michael Stidham's Synchrony or Norm Casse's Dontblametherocket to win.  I gave the edge to  Dontblametherocket mostly because he won the Col Bradley here a month ago, has 5 wins in 8 FG starts, 11 of 13 lifetime in the moiney over grass and 4 wins in last seven starts. This is the gelded son of Blame's 2nd off layoff, a 26% Casse angle.  They are very close, so Synchrony wins the Base Handicap but I have Dontblametherocket current form as the key driver.

 Synchrony is 5 of 5 in the money at FG with 4 wins, 14 of 18 lifetime in the money over grass, 6 of 7 in the money at the distance and has 6 wins in last 15 starts.  As I mentioned this is the 7 YO son of Tapit's first start since early October but training at FG since early January.

I'll be building an exact and I have to decide for sure but assuming I include my three "B" horses and possibly my B- group as Place.  I don't want to over bet so we'll see.

My B group isn't overpowering but all have good trainer/jockey combos and all are the type of 5-6 year old veterans who hang around Place-Show-Exotic race in and race out.  I'm not really sold on the order.  Factor This conditioned by Brian Cox has early speed and Cox/Bridgmohan have won 30% of 50 races over past year at FG.  Cox is outstanding on turf/routes and graded stakes.  Bill Mott's Classic Covey is a 60K ish OC runner primarily with a career best 100 Beyer in a G2 in March 2018. Off since mid October.  Midnight Tea Time has 12 Place/Show finishes in 17 turf starts.  Could be coming at the end.

Sailing Solo, $100,000 Smart Strike colt has only won $102,000 in his five years.  I see promise but no production.  7 of 7 in the money in 2019.  Early Speed will flash like Col Bradley where he led before finishing 5th, 5 back. Extra 1/16th today, same jock.  I dunno.  Ontario Canada Bred Tone Broke is slow nut I always like to mention Fort Erie Prince of Wales runners.  The 4 YO transitions from mostly dirt and is a huge wildcard.  Bombs away candidate but don't bet the mortgage.

I think I'll assemble something like this:

  2-5 OVER 2-5-4-12-6-11-8   a $2 bet for $24.  Seems a bit pricey so I reserve right to reconsider and will post final bet in next blog.

And finally, the 52 Bets in 52 Weeks Series has another win in the Pegasus World Cup Turf on January 25.  Recalling from my blog the bet:

"...So what to do with it?  While it's not sexy, a $1 six horse boxed exacta of 12-2-3-10-11-1 for $30 should make money provided the top two horses on the tote board don't finish 1-2. "  




They finished 1-12 with Zulu Alpha at $11.80 to one winning over Magic Wand at $3.70 to one.  I said I needed a $30 bet to be justified with some luck and we got it.  The $1 exacta paid $88.30.

The ROI for the year is 64% with $124 in Net winnings.  




Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!