The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. Remember, this is a no brag zone, but it's not bragging to say I've been fire over the grass with the exacta's, taking down favorites left and right. My no favorite Exacta Bet cost $18 but paid $88. These are the bets that drive ROI for the horseplayer.
Again, another race with a better than even money favorite fell to Show. 60% of the time the favorites lose. It's an angle I love to exploit. I do everything in my power to avoid bias in my handicapping and betting. The pretty girls on FanDuel TV can be compelling, the ex-Jock can be compelling, but its all bias. I find I'm more successful not knowing if the horse is named after someone who's sick or died, or a feel good news item about the connections. I'm human and I love a good human interest story (I cried a lot about the story behind Cody's Wish- but I still bet against him!) just not if it brings bias to me. Anyways, looking at a wide sample size we ask ChatGPT how often the favorite Wins-Places or Shows.
For turf racing only in the U.S., the numbers for post-time favorites shift slightly lower than Dirt because:
Turf races often have larger fields and more competitive entries than dirt races.
Pace dynamics can create more upsets, but the favorite still performs strongly.
📊 Typical U.S. turf racing averages (compiled from multi-year Equibase & DRF summaries):
Win: ~33–34%
Place (1st or 2nd): ~55–57%
Show (1st, 2nd, or 3rd): ~71–73%
That means favorites on turf finish in the top two a little more than half the time, slightly less than the overall racing average (≈58–60%).
9 August 2025; Cnl; The Arlington Million G1 on Firm Turf.
With all due respect, Mystik Dan didn't deserve $3.7-1 odds. He's done nothing on Turf and for a $4.5 MM lifetime winner, looks washed at Grade 1 level. An emotionless gambler needs to look for these angles, over bet name recognition horses. I think Integration is a good horse, a horse for the course, but he's not Secretariat! Those odds were too short at $0.6-1.
I said I didn't think Vesting (Ire) scratch meant anything to the pace, and it didn't. I liked Cairo but he was so wet in his shoulders I was not shocked how he flattened. Time Song and Runaway Storm are still running and I rightly tossed them. That left Fort Washington and Grand Sonata, both of whom I thought were overlooked and in great form.
Keep handicapping, keep looking for the patterns that repeat over and over and over. As your handicapping improves, your bet construction will improve.
A simple bet construction I offered up prerace paid $88 on an $18 bet. I had the superfecta in my handicap as well, but that's a drug I avoid these days!
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I handicap (mostly) older horses, (mostly) running over routes of grass and I build exactas (almost always) from the information. I believe in the following core principles: Last speed is better than early (mostly), Older Horses give you more data and more predictability (mostly), Class matters (almost always), bet against favorites (60% of the time they lose) (almost always), build a base handicap that isn't your bet but is the best horses with best chance to win (everytime), build and adjust odds so you can compare to fair odds table (always), have fun, don't take yourself too seriously, and stay humble (forever).
Now that I bared my soul to you, let me say I hate that they call these races Arlington anything. Arlington, to me, the most beautiful track, with an incredible turf course, that truly attracted top European talent, was destroyed by greed and the poor leadership within the track ownership community. Don't insult my intelligence with this BS. While I'm happy they actually have a purse of $1.0 MM still, remember in 1981 dollars when this race started, that $1.0 MM is now worth $3.54 MM. The race hasn't progressed and that's why, along with other reasons, it's a poor excuse of a G1. That's The Turk's two cents, I generally don't get into such weighty subjects, but there you go.
My son and I made many trips to Arlington over the last decade. Those are memories I will always cherish. I've told my backstory and my connection to the Arlington fire of 1985 before and you can find it in this link. This track closure hurt because it was done because of terrible state leadership and the pursuit of slot revenue, terrible track ownership and apathy. When you lose the good things in life they seldom come back.
Anyways, lets get back to the handicapping. I've been experimenting with AI lately. While very rudimentary, I upload the PDF of the Past Performance to ChatGPT and build charts of data I like to see and compile generally by hand (Tomlinsons, Beyers, Early and Late Timeform, Class by number of Stakes Wins). It speeds things up for me. Next I will figure out how to automate to make the process quicker and repeatable. I'd love to incorporate more API data into what I do but I won't pay the crazy prices for DataStream access the monopolies over this sport demand. If anyone has an idea and wants to collaborate, let me know.
8 June 2025; SAR; The Manhattan G1; 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf
19 July 2025; Mth; The United Nations G2; 1 3/8 Miles on firm Turf
17 May 2025; Pim; The Dinner Party G3; 1 1/8 miles on Good Turf.
17 June 2025; Ascot (GB); The Queen Anne Stakes G1; 1 Mile on "Good to Firm" turf.
What to do with all of this? I like Integration a lot here: 9 of 14 in Turf Exactas, 4 of 4 in Colonial Exactas. Training very sharply over turf at Saratoga including a bullet :46 4/5ths at 4f with 51 others that day. Feels right with a 5 YO son of Quality Road running well in Virginia. Mr. Evans smiles.
I'm going to bet that he finishes no better than Place. Fort Washington, Cairo and Grand Sonata OVER Fort Washington, Cairo,Grand Sonata and Integration, a $2 exacta for $18.
Sometimes the best bet is the one you don't make. Vesting, who I didn't think could possibly win, just scratched. a seven horse race now, and Vesting leaving doesn't change the pace consideration for me (poor early speed, mid late).
If anything I'm less inclined to bet $18. Try Fort Washington, Cairo and Grand Sonata OVER Integration, a $2 Bet for $6. Mid value/low risk.
Welcome to The Turk Blog, started in 2008 and now with over 725 postings. The Turk Blog specializes in turf racing and exacta bet construction. I appreciate The Thorofan, and their Handicappers Corner, for allowing me an opportunity to share my writing with you today.
As a fan of turf racing, and with the death of Arlington International, Kentucky Downs became my favorite track and boutique meet of the year. I wish I could say I was good at either handicapping the races there, or building better constructions, but that is part of the charm at Kentucky Downs, the races are hard to predict, its difficult to know which horses will take to the quirky track, and the sample sizes of horses running on the track itself are very small.
What is it about Kentucky Downs? It is a unique racetrack located in Franklin, Kentucky, near the Tennessee border. Known for its European-style turf course, the track stands out in the American horse racing landscape due to its undulating, irregularly shaped layout, which differs from the traditional oval tracks seen across the United States. Founded in 1990, Kentucky Downs is built on the historic site of the old Dueling Grounds, adding a layer of history to its modern-day horse racing activities.
The track hosts some of the richest turf races in North America, despite offering a short annual meet. Its premier event and the focus of today, The Kentucky Turf Cup G2, attracts top-quality horses and trainers. Kentucky Downs has gained a reputation for offering large purses like this race $2.0 MM, largely due to its successful historical horse racing (HHR) machines, which operate year-round. These gaming machines have boosted the track's revenue, allowing it to increase race day payouts and enhance its appeal to the racing community.
Kentucky Downs emphasis on both historic tradition and modern gaming has helped the venue carve out a special niche in the racing industry.
So what were the The Dueling Grounds of Kentucky? Located near the Kentucky-Tennessee border, the dueling grounds hold a unique place in American history. Known as the "Spanish Main," this area served as a notorious site for duels in the 19th century. Due to the strict laws against dueling, this location, just outside state jurisdiction, became a favored spot for those seeking to resolve personal disputes through "honorable combat."
The Dueling Grounds gained infamy for high-profile duels, particularly during the early 1800s, including the fatal duel in 1826 between U.S. Congressman John Randolph and Henry Clay, a prominent American statesman and future presidential candidate. Though the duel ended without bloodshed, it underscored the site’s role in shaping political and personal conflicts of the time. Duels, dangerous and deadly, were also a socially accepted method for defending one’s honor in certain circles. By the mid-19th century, dueling fell out of favor, and the Dueling Grounds eventually faded into history.
In 2014, National Geographic found evidence of spent casings and lead bullet fragments, confirming the exact location of the duels. To this day, Kentucky is the only state requiring office holders to swear to uphold that they have never dueled or challenged anyone to a duel.
Enough Turk, get on with it!
The weather should be dry and the track firm. The track website is pretty barebones but you can find scratches and changes and track surface info here.
$2.0 MM Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Grade 2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf
Just a few relevant videos, but at 1 1/2 miles, don't put too much into these.
4 August 2024 EIP; Turf Cup Preview $299K; 1 1/4 Miles firm turf. Highway Robber/1; King Curlin/6; Anglophile/9
11 August 2024 CNL; Arlington Million G1; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf. Integration/2; Sugoi/5
20 July 2024 MTH; United Nations G2; 1 3/8 Miles on Firm Turf. Get Smokin/4; Tawny Port/7; Grand Sonata/10
So what should you do with all this? First, check for scratches and changes. There were none when I wrote this on Thursday evening. Next, hold your bets and watch that tote board leading up to post time. Finally, have fun. It's Kentucky Downs, anything can happen. If I choose to bet I will look at an exacta with Integration/2 above Get Smokin/4, Tawny Point/7, Anglophile/9, Sugoi/5 and Highway Robber/1, a $10 Bet and alternatively, I'd drop Integration and $2 box 4-7-9-5-1 for $40. Both are pricey and big gambles but the handle will be big and its worth stretching.
