Breeders' Cup Turf: Handicapping Post Mortem

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I write about mostly older horses running routes over grass, and from that I assemble exacta bets.  I've been a handicapper since the mid 1980's and a horse racing blogger since 2008.  

I didn't think Ethical Diamond had a chance.  

Nothing here screams it:  a Maiden at start of 5 YO campaign.  His jockey jumped to 2X Turf Winner Rebel's Romance.  

Nothing here screams winner:  Most of his $521K in earnings from 2025 after a brutal 2024 (someone believed in him!). The race chart implies pressing and not deep closer.  Only 1/5 of his earnings from this distance.  

Breeders' Cup Turf G1: 1 1/2 Miles for 3 YO and Up

14 September 2025;  Curragh; Irish Leger G1; 

Amiloc (GB) Place finish for 3 YO gelding.  6 of 6 Lifetime Exacta

27 September 2025; Aqueduct; Turf Classic G1;

El Cordobes (Ire) (Show 3 3/4 back), Rebel Red (GB) (5th 7 3/4 back), Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Win 3 1/2 in front ), Redistricting (GB) (Place 3 1/2 back)

23 August 2025; York (GB); Ebor Handicap Stakes  Class 2; 

Ethical Diamond (Ire) (Win by 2 1/2)

27 September 2025; Santa Anita; John Henry Turf Championship G1; 

Gold Phoenix (Ire) (Win by 1 1/4 in front) 

7 September 2025; Baden-Baden (Ger); Grosser Preis von Baden G1;

Goliath (Ger) (Win by 1 1/4 lengths)

4 October 2025; Aqueduct; Jockey Club Derby Invitational G2;

Hill Road (Show 2 1/2 lengths back)

5 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe G1; 

Minnie Hauk (Ire) (Place by a head)

4 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix Dollar G2; 

Rashabar (Ire) (4th- 4 lengths back- (French Only Video-Green, Blue Sleeves, Green Dots on White #9 horse)

4 October 2025; Woodbine; Canadian International G1; 

Silawi (Ire) (Win by a nose), Tawny Port (Place by a nose)

30 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Nashville Derby G3

Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) (Win by a head), Hill Road (Show 3 3/4 lengths back)

The Breeders Cup Turf   G1:  1 1/2 Miles on the Del Mar Turf Course, for 3 YOs and Up

What I said Prerace:

I was going to call this an interesting field, and then I thought about it, and if you removed Minnie Hauk (Ire) and Rebel's Romance (Ire) from the field, then it would be a very interesting American Grade 1 turf race.  Including them makes this a top heavy race with a fairly mediocre bottom of the field, especially at the outside posts.  The filly, Minnie Hauk (Ire), as morning line favorite at 8-5 I didn't think was appropriate.  Yes she carries 7 less pounds than Rebel's Romance but it's her 8th start, the furthest she's traveled before coming to Del Mar was Ireland to France,  a flight too short to pass out complimentary beverages. At 3 YO, if this filly wins it will be shocking and historic.  Yes she can, I don't think it will happen.  But it's not exactly like Rebel's Romance winning will provide value. The two of them combined for 51.5% of the adjusted Morning Line and 53.6% of Turk's Fair Odds.  I think we will have to get creative with the Betting Structure to realize value.

1.  Have Rebel's Romance (Ire) or Minnie Hauk (Ire) first with a few logical late runners in Place.

2. Swing for the Fence:  Put a bunch of Horses (my non-RED) in Win Spot and put both Minnie Hauk and Rebel's Romance in Place Spot.  

 I priced out both at $24 Dollar Options:

$2 Exacta:  1-8 OVER 2-10-4-3-9-6 for $24

OR

$2 Exacta 2-10-4-3-9-6 OVER 1-8

I'm not wasting money on the most logical, a 1-8 Boxed finish.  

Exacta History for 2024-2025

Tomlinson Analysis for Turf and Distance:

The Race Replay

 

Ethical Diamond's run in the visualization below is just as impressive as what my eyes saw.  Paying $282 on a $2 exacta with 2-1 Rebel's Romance, it showed the strategy I had of putting the favorites in Place and a bunch of long shots in Win Spot was sound, I just picked the wrong long shot.  Honestly, I didn't see this coming and sometimes you can complete the post mortem and come away with no other lesson except you can't win them all!

Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!

The Breeders' Cup Win and You're In Kentucky Down's Turf Cup 2025 G2; Handicap and Video Analysis

Utah Beach making his move

Welcome friends To The Turk Blog. I focus on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. While I generally eschew social media. I noticed this morning quite a bit of distain for the exacta pools around the horse racing fandom. If you pay attention to my base handicap, ignore the bet construction, you'll find I pick winners and build a fair odds table that is much more accurate than a Morning Line and does a fair good job against the Tote Board. I use to bet Superfectas. I like to go horizontal and bet Pick X on cards when I'm not blogging as it takes a lot of typing time for that effort. My point is, use the base handicap and make whatever bet you'd like. I focus on Exactas. I get it, I've been burned too. I focus mostly on Stakes Races for the blog, big purse money too, races I expect a lot of handle on. That insulates me pretty good, but I get it. Whatever you do, have fun, otherwise why do it. I think the proliferation of sports gambling is what will kill this sport. It takes skill to handicap. The powers that be horde a lot of information. Betting the major sports is just easier. I'm almost 60, I hope to still be blogging and enjoying races until I'm dead, God willing, but will there be a sport for our grandkids to enjoy? Doubtful unless it reinvents the way it markets itself. That's the type of meaty question I let the real turf writers opine about, I'm just a degenerate gambler with a love of the horses that is 50 years old now.

 Let's get after it! 

6 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Turf Cup G2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf 

 3 August 2025; Ellis Park; KD Preview Turf Cup $300K; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf  

 9 August 2025; Colonial Downs; The Arlington Million G1; 1 1/4 Mile Firm Turf  

 9 August 2025; Saratoga; The Sword Dancer G1; 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf- El Rezeen from the back with Davis, Up; gets Irad Ortiz Jr. today.  

 19 July 2025; Monmouth Park; The United Nations G2; 1 3/8 miles firm turf. (In Spanish- Look for 1 horse Tawny Port and 4 Horse, Place, Grand Sonata and 5 horse, Vote No)  

 19 April 2025; Keeneland; The Elkhorn G2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf

Visualization of Timeform Early to Late;  takeaway, lots of late movers as you'd expect.

Tomlinson Review for Turf and Distance; Takeaway, no surprises where the Class leaders rank.   

 And a look at the Exacta Finishes over Lifetime, Turf, Distance and Kentucky Downs;

 What to make of all of this?  I like the grizzled Vets in this race.  Quite frankly I like my Base Handicap quite a bit, enough to box up a Superfecta if I was so inclined.  

If I'm looking for value it's El Rezeen who I like more than most (foolish or not). To win?  I'd be hard pressed top say that, but to spice up the Place spot.  

$2 Exacta 11-6-7-2-9 BOX for $40

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The United Nations G2 at Monmouth Park

2024 United Nations at the wire: Get Smokin. 

                                                                                                                               Welcome friends to The Turk blog, where I handicap turf racing and build exacta bets.  I've been handicapping for 39 years and I've been a fan of the ponies since Seattle Slew when I was 11 years old.

If you are new to my blog, welcome.  I've never made much of an effort to distribute this blog widely, but I have created a new Facebook Page and a X/Twitter Account, so if you found me there, I am grateful.  

Today is one of the marquee days in horse racing, Haskell Day at Monmouth Park.  The United Nations G2 just before the Haskell is today's turf racing mystery to solve.

Let's get after it!

Just a reference point

20 July 2024 Mth;  The United Nations G2: 1 3/8 Miles Firm Turf

19 April 2025 Kee; The Elkhorn G2: 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf

 

14 June 2025 Mth; The Monmouth Stakes $150K; 1 1/8 miles on good Turf

 

14 June 2025 DEL; The Cape Henlopen Stakes $200K; 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf

 

 The United Nations G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Turf

Interesting field with no heavy chalk but clearly a line between Graded Stakes class and Allowance/Minor stakes. The potential for a freaky finish and a higher payout is what attracts me to these sort of fields and races, although I find it some of the hardest handicapping I do.  

Redistricting (GB) and Limited Liability seem like the cream of the crop. 

Redistricting (GB) is a 5 YO, lightly raced making 10th career start, 5 of 9 in the exacta.  Last win was here at Monmouth in the Monmouth Stakes, winning as the heavy chalk.  Stepping up bigly in class, but a close Place in the G2 Seabiscuit Handicap in November 2024 gives me promise.  Prat/Chad Brown are 26% together over past year in 291 starts.  

Limited Liability comes in off a layoff since b19 April at KEE Elkhorn G2, a beaten head.  0 of 3 at this distance, 8 of 20 exacta finishes over turf.  On a run of six straight in the money finishes.  

Rebel Red (GB) and Grand Sonata are in my next layer of quality. 

Rebel Red  (GB) is a 5 YO son of Frankel (GB) with huge closing speed, the best late Timeform US Pace of the field.  Winner last time out in $170K stake at Churchill Downs, setting a career best 100 Beyer at 1 3/8ths, today's distance. A race best Tomlinson at the distance and the 3rd best Tomlinson over grass.  

Grand Sonata was a beaten nose at this race in 2024 to Get Smokin, the 10 horse.  Also a solid closer.  Walked off after Belmont Gold Cup in June, the 6 YO wanted nothing to do with the dirt slop when race moved off grass.  G2 Kentucky Downs Turf Cup winner in 2024 and a beaten head at Gulfstream Park in a G2 in March.  

Major Dude, Tawny Port and Get Smokin are where I cut off the contenders for the Exacta.  

Trainer Todd Pletcher's Major Dude is a 5YO making 20th Turf Start.  9 of 19 in the exacta over grass, first time at this distance and first time at Monmouth.  Last time out was at 1 Mile.  Hasn't gone past 9f in 5 races, the Pegasus Turf G1 where he was in a position to close but didn't.  

Tawny Port also wanted nothing to do with the slop in the Belmont Gold Cup and eased to be 81 lengths back (I'd called that eased).  Two Show finishes in two tries at Monmouth, but both gutty efforts.  Miguel Clement saddles him, the Turk still isn't ready to memorialize his favorite trainer, Christophe Clement, but rest in peace.  No wins in four tries at this distance.  1 win in 12 turf starts.  

8 YO Get Smokin must be respected  for his game win here last year.  

Starting Over and Vote No could have been considered, but I don't see it, although the 4 YO Vote No has 3 wins in 6 turf stars , closes well and is a last race winner.  

I think I'd be foolish to not cover Redistricting and Limited Liability in the top two spots.  Rebel Red and Grand Sonata,  Vote No and Tawny Port are my contenders.  

Rebel Red OVER Redistricting, Limited Liability, Grand Sonata, and Tawny Port, a $2 Exacta for $8.  

A dart throw really.  I think Rebel Red will be no better than 3rd on the Tote Board and I'm looking for value.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

7 OVER 3-4-2

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Downs Turf Cup G2

Kentucky Downs from above

 Welcome to The Turk Blog, started in 2008 and now with over 725 postings.  The Turk Blog specializes in turf racing and exacta bet construction.  I appreciate The Thorofan, and their Handicappers Corner, for allowing me an opportunity to share my writing with you today.  

As a fan of turf racing, and with the death of Arlington International, Kentucky Downs became my favorite track and boutique meet of the year.  I wish I could say I was good at either handicapping the races there, or building better constructions, but that is part of the charm at Kentucky Downs, the races are hard to predict, its difficult to know which horses will take to the quirky track, and the sample sizes of horses running on the track itself are very small.  

What is it about Kentucky Downs? It is a unique racetrack located in Franklin, Kentucky, near the Tennessee border. Known for its European-style turf course, the track stands out in the American horse racing landscape due to its undulating, irregularly shaped layout, which differs from the traditional oval tracks seen across the United States. Founded in 1990, Kentucky Downs is built on the historic site of the old Dueling Grounds, adding a layer of history to its modern-day horse racing activities.

The track hosts some of the richest turf races in North America, despite offering a short annual meet. Its premier event and the focus of today, The Kentucky Turf Cup G2, attracts top-quality horses and trainers.  Kentucky Downs has gained a reputation for offering large purses like this race $2.0 MM, largely due to its successful historical horse racing (HHR) machines, which operate year-round. These gaming machines have boosted the track's revenue, allowing it to increase race day payouts and enhance its appeal to the racing community.

Kentucky Downs emphasis on both historic tradition and modern gaming has helped the venue carve out a special niche in the racing industry.

So what were the The Dueling Grounds of Kentucky? Located near the Kentucky-Tennessee border, the dueling grounds hold a unique place in American history. Known as the "Spanish Main," this area served as a notorious site for duels in the 19th century. Due to the strict laws against dueling, this location, just outside state jurisdiction, became a favored spot for those seeking to resolve personal disputes through "honorable combat."

The Dueling Grounds gained infamy for high-profile duels, particularly during the early 1800s, including the fatal duel in 1826 between U.S. Congressman John Randolph and Henry Clay, a prominent American statesman and future presidential candidate. Though the duel ended without bloodshed, it underscored the site’s role in shaping political and personal conflicts of the time. Duels,  dangerous and deadly, were also a socially accepted method for defending one’s honor in certain circles. By the mid-19th century, dueling fell out of favor, and the Dueling Grounds eventually faded into history.

In 2014, National Geographic found evidence of spent casings and lead bullet fragments, confirming the exact location of the duels. To this day, Kentucky is the only state requiring office holders to swear to uphold that they have never dueled or challenged anyone to a duel.  

Enough Turk, get on with it! 

The weather should be dry and the track firm.  The track website is pretty barebones but you can find scratches and changes and track surface info here.  

$2.0 MM Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Grade 2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf

Just a few relevant videos, but at 1 1/2 miles, don't put too much into these.  

 4 August 2024 EIP; Turf Cup Preview $299K; 1 1/4 Miles firm turf.  Highway Robber/1; King Curlin/6; Anglophile/9

11 August 2024 CNL; Arlington Million G1; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf.  Integration/2; Sugoi/5

20 July 2024 MTH; United Nations G2; 1 3/8 Miles on Firm Turf.  Get Smokin/4; Tawny Port/7; Grand Sonata/10

So what should you do with all this?  First, check for scratches and changes.  There were none when I wrote this on Thursday evening.  Next, hold your bets and watch that tote board leading up to post time.  Finally, have fun.  It's Kentucky Downs, anything can happen.  If I choose to bet I will look at an exacta with Integration/2 above Get Smokin/4, Tawny Point/7, Anglophile/9, Sugoi/5 and Highway Robber/1, a $10 Bet and alternatively, I'd drop Integration and $2 box 4-7-9-5-1 for $40.  Both are pricey and big gambles but the handle will be big and its worth stretching.  

Have fun,  Turk Out!