The Turk Blog: 17th Blog Birthday and 750 Posts

This is a special post for The Turk: The 17th Anniversary of the Blog's Start, and today, the 750th post on the blog. The Turk isn't anything if he isn't determined, and I was determined to create a blog that few would read and enjoy. Yes, I said that. It's a handicappers blog in the fading sunset of horse racing. When this blog started I was visiting tracks like Suffolk Downs, Hollywood, and Arlington. All gone. I use to meet other handicappers from time to time, but now, even at the track, the people who like to decode the mysteries of the Past Performance are a dwindling breed.

When this blog started I joined an Alliance of other bloggers, almost all much better writers than I, but more fascinating, almost every one of them had a different point of view, different approaches to covering this great past time.  These were long form, nuanced and insightful pieces of writing, some of them  far exceeding the journalistic standards of a standard DRF article.  

With Twitter, it all came down, and suddenly.  Gone were the days of long form prose, in was 140 characters.  Snippets, shallow, but a mirror of the attention span of most of America by this time.  For me, I just kept writing.  My blog is a nerd's blog where I handicap and try to assemble bets.  I don't break news stories, I have no compelling connections to the sport, and worst of all, I'm a lousy networker.  Any positive friendly connections I did have went out the window when I broke my own golden rule on Facebook and talked politics during the 2016 election cycle.  Most of my horse racing connections leaned left, I leaned right, and suddenly I was cut off from aggregators, left to wither in the vacuum.  My own fault. 

 I've learned, I don't talk politics on my blog, and I don't talk politics on my social media feeds either.  Readership is up the more I post and the more effort I put into it.  Why do I still write?  Because I enjoy it, it's that simple.  I think I have something to offer in terms of my handicapping, and my bet construction ain't too shabby either.  I focus on Turf Racing, not the most popular form of racing in the United States, but it's what I enjoy.  I could get a few more views if I cared about the Road to the Roses and the Triple Crown hunt, but I just don't care enough to do that.  My favorite horses aren't the regally bred ones that win several races as a three year old and go off to stud.  Mine are  4 years and older, sometimes gelded, dirt racing failures or just more bred for turf, who knock around from track to track and come back the following year to do it all over again.  That's what I love, journeymen turf runners who can still surprise with that late turn of foot.  

Anyways, as Turk starts to contemplate retirement I've reinvested myself in this blog.  I'm making use of AI tools to help me build tables and charts.  I'm posting more frequently.  I've created specific socials just for the blog and I'm doing all the little things to grow the blog organically.  I use to dream about getting aggregated to one of the big horse racing websites, but that's not the dream anymore. Now the dream is to nail the handicap, nail the bet, and if someone reads it, great, otherwise wash rinse and repeat. I was I was determined, and stubborn.  This blog is still in it's infancy, I have at least 17 years more in me, God willing.  

I'd be remiss to not thank a few people:  My dear Aunt Rose who gave me my love of horse racing.  She was such a unique and colorful character, I miss her dearly.  Gene Kershner, who answered a lot of questions for me when I was considering starting this blog and who helped me get into the Bloggers Alliance.  Finally, The Happy Handicapper, Bob Summers, who inspired me with his writing for the Buffalo News for so many years.  

I was 42 years old when I started this Blog.  I've been handicapping since 1986, 39 years.  When I started, my son, The Little Turk, was my sidekick.  He went to so many Grade 1 races before the age of ten it was silly.  He's a chiropractor now, engaged to be married.  He still likes getting to the track with his pops from time to time, but the blog is all me now.  

Anyways, have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Breeders' Cup Win and You're In Kentucky Down's Turf Cup 2025 G2; Handicap and Video Analysis

Utah Beach making his move

Welcome friends To The Turk Blog. I focus on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. While I generally eschew social media. I noticed this morning quite a bit of distain for the exacta pools around the horse racing fandom. If you pay attention to my base handicap, ignore the bet construction, you'll find I pick winners and build a fair odds table that is much more accurate than a Morning Line and does a fair good job against the Tote Board. I use to bet Superfectas. I like to go horizontal and bet Pick X on cards when I'm not blogging as it takes a lot of typing time for that effort. My point is, use the base handicap and make whatever bet you'd like. I focus on Exactas. I get it, I've been burned too. I focus mostly on Stakes Races for the blog, big purse money too, races I expect a lot of handle on. That insulates me pretty good, but I get it. Whatever you do, have fun, otherwise why do it. I think the proliferation of sports gambling is what will kill this sport. It takes skill to handicap. The powers that be horde a lot of information. Betting the major sports is just easier. I'm almost 60, I hope to still be blogging and enjoying races until I'm dead, God willing, but will there be a sport for our grandkids to enjoy? Doubtful unless it reinvents the way it markets itself. That's the type of meaty question I let the real turf writers opine about, I'm just a degenerate gambler with a love of the horses that is 50 years old now.

 Let's get after it! 

6 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Turf Cup G2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf 

 3 August 2025; Ellis Park; KD Preview Turf Cup $300K; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf  

 9 August 2025; Colonial Downs; The Arlington Million G1; 1 1/4 Mile Firm Turf  

 9 August 2025; Saratoga; The Sword Dancer G1; 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf- El Rezeen from the back with Davis, Up; gets Irad Ortiz Jr. today.  

 19 July 2025; Monmouth Park; The United Nations G2; 1 3/8 miles firm turf. (In Spanish- Look for 1 horse Tawny Port and 4 Horse, Place, Grand Sonata and 5 horse, Vote No)  

 19 April 2025; Keeneland; The Elkhorn G2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf

Visualization of Timeform Early to Late;  takeaway, lots of late movers as you'd expect.

Tomlinson Review for Turf and Distance; Takeaway, no surprises where the Class leaders rank.   

 And a look at the Exacta Finishes over Lifetime, Turf, Distance and Kentucky Downs;

 What to make of all of this?  I like the grizzled Vets in this race.  Quite frankly I like my Base Handicap quite a bit, enough to box up a Superfecta if I was so inclined.  

If I'm looking for value it's El Rezeen who I like more than most (foolish or not). To win?  I'd be hard pressed top say that, but to spice up the Place spot.  

$2 Exacta 11-6-7-2-9 BOX for $40

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The $500,000 One Dreamer at Kentucky Downs: Handicap and Exacta Bet Construction

Temp Rail at Kentucky Downs ~ 25 feet 8/31/25

Welcome Friends To The Turk Blog, where we write about Turf horse racing and build exacta handicaps.  Kentucky Downs is over seemingly just as it starts.  A fantastic meet that I wish was a bit longer, but perhaps that would take some of the alure away also.  Our eyes will move towards Keenland and Santa Anita Turf in the next few weeks as Kentucky Downs wrap up, and we have this weekend, the first weekend in October, and then Breeders' Cup as the next three big weekends, and really, the end of Turf racing until SA Winter and Gulfstream Winter kick off.  The cycle of racing is part of what I enjoy, understanding that cycle has been disturbed greatly by the loss of Arlington, Hollywood, and the temporary loss of Belmont.  We can only handicap what they race.

Thursday racing does get me excited, especially with these big purses.  Today's handicap is the One Dreamer $500k, for Fillies and Mares 3 YO and Up that haven't won a stakes in 2025.  

One thing I wish we had was better track website for Kentucky Downs.  I really hate having to use Equibase but that's what we have.  There has been minimal rain and weather looks good. I expect Firm Turf.  You can find scratches and changes and turf condition here.  Note the temp rail was at 25 feet a few days ago.  Pay attention to this as the turf track gets worn quite hard here as all races are on it.  

Here’s why the turf rail setting matters—and how to use it when you handicap.

What “rail at X ft” means

• Tracks move a temporary inside rail out from the “true” (0 ft) position to protect worn turf. You’ll see settings like 0 ft (true), 9 ft, 18 ft, 30 ft, etc.

• Moving the rail out narrows the course and changes trip dynamics. Starters are repositioned so the official distance is still correct, but the race shape and trips are not the same as at 0 ft.

Geometry and trip dynamics (the big effects)

• Narrower lanes mean a premium on saving ground. With the rail far out, there’s less room to loop the field; wide moves cost more and hit traffic sooner.

• Inside posts and forward trips tend to do better as the rail goes out. Speed and pace-pressers can control and save ground; deep closers are more likely to get stacked or forced wide.

• Outside posts in routes are riskier with the rail out: shorter run to the first turn plus less width increases the chance of getting hung out.

• Surface freshness flips. Rails out often use more outside lanes (sometimes fresher); when the rail comes back in (true), the inner lane that was protected can be firmer and faster. Track-by-track quirks apply—log them.

Timing, starts, and figures

• Run-up and turn geometry change with different rail settings, so raw times aren’t apples-to-apples. Lean on figures (Beyer, TimeformUS) and sectional context rather than final time comparisons across rail positions.

A handy ground-loss rule of thumb

• Each “path” is about 3 ft. Around two turns, being 1 path wide adds roughly 19 ft (about 2 lengths); 2 paths is roughly 4 lengths. On rails-out days—when more horses are forced wide—this penalty shows up more often.

Practical betting takeaways

• Upgrade horses who were forced wide or trapped on a big rails-out day; they often improve next time, especially if the rail comes back in.

• Downgrade effortless inside/speed wins with the rail far out; they may not get the same trip when width and flow change.

• Track-specific notes pay. Saratoga, Kentucky Downs, Gulfstream, Del Mar, and others have distinct patterns by rail setting and distance. Keep a simple log: Track / Distance / Rail / Style that did best / Any post bias.

That's a lot of effort and I can't say I do that for every race.  I do think about which horses I like the most and try to figure out how they will be affected by the increased distance or the cornering.  This is advanced class and quite frankly you can ignore rail position and get away with it much of the time.  

Let's get after this!

4 September 2025; Kentucky Downs; Dreamer $500K; 1 Mile 70 yards

Those 70 yards don't matter that much; it's 1/3 of a furlong. Most of the horses here should have no issue with the distance, but you really should think of it more as a sprint than a route. While I generally would discount the early speed to not carry, in this case, it's not unreasonable that a talented and classy horse like No Mo Candy can use her early speed, take control of the race, and ride it wire to wire. Paying attention to see if Irad Ortiz goes, I'm not that close to what he's doing after the fall this weekend. 

 Pace Visualization:

Tomlinson Analysis:

 

Exacta History:

I'm not going to overthink the bet too much.  While I haven't agreed too much with the Morning lines at KD this past week, I see the race pretty similar to the track handicapper (for better or worse!)  To me, if I don't cash it will be because I get the bet construction wrong, not the handicap.

I don't see a lot of value ion this race, so full disclosure I may not bet it. When I feel that way I resist the urge to over bet, so I won't.

My first thought is $2 Exacta 7 OVER 5-4-1-8 for $8.  I might look at tote board as we approach post time but I don't see any of my top three going long on the odds enough for me to stretch.  I do like Vive Veuve possibly more than No Mo Candy, so I may bet 5 OVER 7-4-1-8 instead, a game time decision.  

UPDATE:  No Mo Candy and Butternut Babe scratched.  Not in love with the bet possibilities in this race but if compelled, 5 OVER 4-1-8 a $2 Exacta for $6.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out

The Nomination Is In: The Del Mar Handicap G2

Mr. George Strawbridge Jr: Augustin Stables/Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting. Today I'm primarily focused on the big prize money at Kentucky Downs, but with an eye towards the Breeders' Cup I'd be remiss in not looking closely at The Del Mar Handicap G2. You can find my blog for Kentucky Down's Nashville Derby here.  

Do what you love.  I love Turf racing and luckily I know I'm good at it.  How do I know that?  I keep stats.  Do you keep stats of your own hits and misses?  I didn't start keeping good records until I started this blog.  When I was younger I was more instinctive.  When I started keeping stats I realized I was good at Turf and Synthetic, terrible at dirt sprints and turf sprints, and much better with 4 YO and Up.  My stats varied widely between tracks too.  I learned what I was naturally biased towards and I doubled down on it.  

I still love a good dirt race, and I'm not terrible at it.  One thing I have done for a long time is to try to insulate myself from the biases of others.  When I do handicap these big dirt events, I know very little about these horses except what I read on the Past Performances and what my eyes tell me on video. Try it, really.  It doesn't mean I'm not a fan of the sport.  Of course I get misty eyed thinking about Cody's Wish and the back story, but I'm better if I block that out.  Anyways, Lets get after this!

Del Mar turf routes over 8 furlongs: the middle posts (roughly posts 3–6) win the most. Outside posts (7 and wider) drop off sharply, and they’re especially poor at 1 1/8 miles. Inside draws (1–3) can be very good on days when the temporary rail is set far out (e.g., 30 feet), but with no rail the distribution is more balanced across the middle. Practical takeaway: upgrade posts 3–6 for Del Mar turf routes over a mile, be cautious with 7+, and give extra credit to 1–3 when the rail is way out. 

30 Aug 2025; DMR; DMR H G2; 1 3/8 on Turf

  Tomlinson and Beyer Review

US Timeform Early and Late Pace

So what to make of all of this? To me it's about the horses coming off of long layoffs: Atitlan (26 May 2025), True Quality (8 Feb 2025) and how they fare versus horses heating up with 2nds off like Balnikhov(Ire) (27 July 2025) and Gold Phoenix (Ire) (9 Aug 2025).  

 5/1/4/9 OVER 5/1/4/9/11/7 a $2 Exacta for $40. That's just a first idea, I'd like to get that below $24. Have fun friends, Turk Out!