The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. On Saturday I handicapped what I thought were the two most interesting turf races of the day, the $3.5 MM Nashville Derby G3 and TheDel Mar Handicap G2.
I wasn't able to enjoy the races as much as I would have liked as I had a more pressing family matter. My son, affectionally known here as "The Little Turk" is little no more. A grown man at 26, a Doctor of Chiropractic medicine, and now engaged to the love of his life, Shajwan. We spent a lovely afternoon with the couple and her parents as Little Turk proposed, before going out to dinner to celebrate.
The Turk has had a good life. I've worked for good people at good jobs, I've been blessed and given anything a father and husband could need by this material world, but seeing my son get engaged and see him become an adult and a man was precious, and I appreciate the time God has given me, as none of us are guaranteed the next day.
Anyways, today's blog post is dedicated to Little Turk and Shajwan, may life be as good to them as it has been to me.
On a personal note, the Turk is starting to sense the end of his working career coming. As I turn 60 next year, I know I only have a few more years of work life ahead of me. This blog has been a labor of love since September 2008. I've rededicated myself to it and to making it the best possible. I've been using AI to help build charts and graphs, which perhaps doesn't save a lot of time, but I like the visualizations and I think others will too. Blogs are a tough sell this day and age, especially specialty blogs like mine. I hate that term "tout." I'm not "touting" anything, I'm describing a rather intricate and detailed way I build positive ROI by focusing on a small group of races weekly versus whole cards. I could never be in a handicapping tournament, its a very different skill set. I spend as much as 90 mins- 2 hours on a single race sometimes, and I don't do this for the money, so while I win regularly on my exacta betting, this is not a retirement tranche of income, again, a labor of love. I'd love for you to follow me on X, Instagram and two places on Facebook, Turf Bloggers (of which I'm the last-ish member, sometimes Ted) and The Turk Blog.
30 August 2025; The Nashville Derby G3; 1 5/16 miles on firm turf
The bet prerace was for a $2 Exacta 11/12/8 OVER 11/12/8/2/5/1 for $30.
12 Over 5 paid $99.04 on a $30 bet or $69.04 Net. Not too shabby. The Turk doesn't brag, but that is the type of success this blog consistently delivers, but again, it's not scalable, I spent 2+ hours blogging just this race. A lot of time goes into each race I handicap. When I'm at the track, I can't do this so I have a very different style of tote board handicapping I do there.
This blog use to be a Superfecta and Super High Five Blog years ago. While that ain't my bag anymore, I had the Super nailed here which paid $132.74 on ten cents, I always bet $1 Supers so you get the idea.
Handicap. There is no substitution to learning and gaining experience in this game. Wimbledon Hawkeye was a 12-1 morning line. IGNORE and don't even look at the Morning Line. I print my PP's without it (thank you DRF Formulator for allowing that option- unsolicited and non sponsored plug). Why did he go off ~ 2-1, because the betting public is smarter. This horse had 1 turf win in 10 starts BUT seven combined Place and Shows. He was clearly improving in his euro Timeform ratings. My placement of Burnham Square (13.5-1) and Hill Road (13.5-1), both 6-1 Morning Lines highlights again to take your own view, not the view of an overworked and hurried handicapper for DRF.
Superscripts include numeric lengths (e.g., 51 1/2, 22 1/2) and hd (head). No no (nose) superscripts appear in this chart by design.
Visualized Race Chart:
30 August 2025; 1 3/8 Miles on Firm Turf; The Del Mar Handicap G2
Gold Phoenix (Ire), four straight Del Mar Handicaps is just an incredible story. I didn't realize it was four because I just have his last ten races with me as I'm handicapping, but wow! That truly is special and really encapsulates why I love older horses and turf racing is general, as its so rare to get such longevity and brilliance with dirt runners. I miss Brass Hat and Commentator just to name a few, they just don't come around very often
I was betting against what I thought was going to be a three-peat for the 7 YO, but he won and I'm happy to lose that one. I think my handicap was pretty spot on and the Superfecta was in there to be had along with the exacta.
As a handicapper, it's about current form to me. Gold Phoenix (Ire) sort of defies that in many ways, but he's an except to the rule. I will be keeping my eyes out again for Stay Hot, Atitlan and Truly Quality, as all three acquitted themselves well.
Race Chart
Del Mar — Del Mar Handicap (G2) • Aug 30, 2025
Horse
PP
1/4
1/2
3/4
1
Str
Fin
Jockey
Odds
Gold Phoenix (IRE)
9
4nk
41 1/2
51/4
51
3nk
1no
Prat F
2.10
Stay Hot
2
51 1/2
51/2
41/2
41
41
2nk
Smith M E
6.60
Atitlan
3
71
71
6nk
61
61/2
3no
Berrios H I
4.30
Truly Quality
5
9
9
9
7nk
71
4no
Rispoli U
4.80
Mondego (GB)
4
6nk
61
71/4
81/2
81/2
5hd
Kimura K
34.30
Final Boss
6
11
11/4
11
11
11/2
6no
Hernandez J J
4.50
City Exile (GB)
8
21/4
21
21/2
2nk
21/2
7hd
Lopez P
25.90
Balnikhov (IRE)
1
81/2
8nk
8nk
9
9
8nk
Fresu A
14.50
Endlessly
7
31 1/2
31/2
31
31/2
5nk
9
Velazquez J R
15.70
Superscripts show lengths behind leader (fractions or whole+fraction), plus hd = head, no = nose, nk = neck.
Mr. George Strawbridge Jr: Augustin Stables/Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting. Today I'm primarily focused on the big prize money at Kentucky Downs, but with an eye towards the Breeders' Cup I'd be remiss in not looking closely at The Del Mar Handicap G2. You can find my blog for Kentucky Down's Nashville Derby here.
Do what you love. I love Turf racing and luckily I know I'm good at it. How do I know that? I keep stats. Do you keep stats of your own hits and misses? I didn't start keeping good records until I started this blog. When I was younger I was more instinctive. When I started keeping stats I realized I was good at Turf and Synthetic, terrible at dirt sprints and turf sprints, and much better with 4 YO and Up. My stats varied widely between tracks too. I learned what I was naturally biased towards and I doubled down on it.
I still love a good dirt race, and I'm not terrible at it. One thing I have done for a long time is to try to insulate myself from the biases of others. When I do handicap these big dirt events, I know very little about these horses except what I read on the Past Performances and what my eyes tell me on video. Try it, really. It doesn't mean I'm not a fan of the sport. Of course I get misty eyed thinking about Cody's Wish and the back story, but I'm better if I block that out. Anyways, Lets get after this!
Del Mar turf routes over 8 furlongs: the middle posts (roughly posts 3–6) win the most. Outside posts (7 and wider) drop off sharply, and they’re especially poor at 1 1/8 miles. Inside draws (1–3) can be very good on days when the temporary rail is set far out (e.g., 30 feet), but with no rail the distribution is more balanced across the middle. Practical takeaway: upgrade posts 3–6 for Del Mar turf routes over a mile, be cautious with 7+, and give extra credit to 1–3 when the rail is way out.
30 Aug 2025; DMR; DMR H G2; 1 3/8 on Turf
Tomlinson and Beyer Review
US Timeform Early and Late Pace
So what to make of all of this?
To me it's about the horses coming off of long layoffs: Atitlan (26 May 2025), True Quality (8 Feb 2025) and how they fare versus horses heating up with 2nds off like Balnikhov(Ire) (27 July 2025) and Gold Phoenix (Ire) (9 Aug 2025).
5/1/4/9 OVER 5/1/4/9/11/7 a $2 Exacta for $40. That's just a first idea, I'd like to get that below $24.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
Hello friends and Welcome to The Turk Blog, where we handicap turf races and develop exacta bet constructions. I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing me an opportunity to write for you today. I've changed jobs over the past year, and I had to put handicapping on the back burner for most of this year. Every few years my output on the blog diminishes, but my love of horse racing remains, and I suspect 2025 will be a record year for my blog in terms of output.
My new job involved recently a trip to Australia and Hong Kong. In both locations I met more race fans than I typically meet in the States. I also got to lay my eyes on the track at Hong Kong which has always fascinated me.
For years I've handicapped Churchill Down's day after Thanksgiving card, but turf runners with a future at Del Mar fits more with what I'm trying to accomplish anyways. After today, I'll shut it down for my writing until the day after Christmas timeframe and the start of the Santa Anita season. I love the ebb and flow of the horse racing calendar, I hope it can survive these times in Southern California.
Today's blog featured race, the Hollywood Derby G1 is a prestigious Grade I turf race for 3 YO thoroughbreds. Its long history, competitive field, and scenic venue make it a significant highlight of the fall racing season and often provides a launching pad for the 3 YOs not ready to jump to the breeding shed (aka- my favorite kind of 3 YOs).
Originally inaugurated in 1938 at the now-defunct Hollywood Park in Inglewood, California, the race was relocated to Del Mar Racetrack in 2014 following Hollywood Park's closure. Despite the change in venue, the Hollywood Derby has retained its historic importance and has continued to attract top-tier competitors from across the nation, although as I've ranted many times before, I think they should retire these races and rename them when the original tracks close. In my opinion, the1 1/8-mile (9 furlongs) distance on turf is ideal for showcasing the tactical speed and endurance of young thoroughbreds. Many of these horses in their 3 YO seasons have either raced lightly on Turf or the Conditioners are still trying to match the horse to the conditions book. That can create interesting improvements in a horses form and results.
Del Mar Racetrack, famous for its slogan “Where the Turf Meets the Surf,” provides a stunning backdrop for the Hollywood Derby. Past winners of the Hollywood Derby include iconic names such as Citation, the 1948 Triple Crown champion, and Snow Chief, who achieved fame in the 1980s. The list of victors is a testament to the race's competitive quality and its influence on the sport. In recent years, notable winners of the Hollywood Derby include Mo Forza (2019), who became a standout on the turf circuit, and Domestic Spending (2020), a Chad Brown-trained colt who went on to win multiple G1 races, solidifying his status as one of the best turf horses in North America.
Handicapping turf races is more nuanced than dirt horse racing, requiring a keen understanding of the distinct characteristics of turf tracks, the horses, and the specific conditions that influence performance and demands a strategy that differs significantly from dirt and while others disagree, I have success viewing and approaching it like synthetic surface races.
Understanding Turf Tracks
Turf surfaces tend to be softer than dirt tracks, offering less traction and more give. This impacts the way horses run, favoring those with a smooth, efficient stride over those with a choppier, more powerful action. Horses with turf-specific pedigrees often excel, as certain bloodlines are known for producing runners suited to the demands of grass racing.
Additionally, turf tracks are highly sensitive to weather conditions. Rain can soften the ground, turning it into yielding or soft turf, while extended dry spells can result in firm conditions. For today, we will just assume firm turf and Del Mar and Santa Anita, non rainy season, have been known for fast firm turf for decades. A quick look at the weather forecast validates this assumption.
Handicappers must pay close attention to the track condition reported on race day, as some horses excel on firm ground while others perform better on softer surfaces. I find this is best by looking at the track's recent race results as well as track conditions and changes section of the website. These tracks have varying degrees of useful websites. Del Mar's is one of the best websites.
I don't do this often, but a little Turf Racing 101 for you:
Pedigree: Evaluating a horse’s pedigree is crucial for turf handicapping. Horses bred from sires and dams with a proven record on turf are more likely to succeed. Look for horses with European bloodlines, as they are often bred specifically for turf racing, where it is more prevalent.
Running Style: Turf races often favor horses with a late-closing or stalking running style. This is because turf races typically unfold at a more measured pace than dirt races, with a strong emphasis on finishing speed. Horses with a powerful turn of foot in the final furlongs tend to have an edge, especially in route distances. I look at every horse early and late Timeform US Pace figs to get a feel for early and late speed and how tactical a horse has run at the distance. I link this to Pace Analysis: Understanding the pace scenario is critical in turf races. A slow early pace can favor horses near the lead, while a fast pace might set up perfectly for a closer. Handicappers should analyze the pace setup to predict which horses might benefit most.
Jockeys and Trainers:
Certain jockeys and trainers specialize in turf racing and have developed strategies suited to its intricacies. For example, top turf jockeys excel at timing their moves perfectly in the stretch. Researching a trainer’s turf win percentage and a jockey's familiarity with the surface can provide a valuable edge. For example, Fresu/Eurton 23% winners on 43 starts, Rispoli/McCarthy 25% winners on 53 starts standout to me for volume as well as quality, but don't discount Berrios/Shirreffs 25% on 12 starts or Dettori/Thomas 26% on 23 starts but all tracks, first at Del Mar. Its a tool.
Form and Experience: Horses that have previously performed well on turf, especially under similar conditions, are worth noting. Pay attention to recent races and the competition faced. Horses transitioning from dirt to turf for the first time may struggle unless their pedigree or training suggests aptitude for the surface. The concept of Class is important: Look at Career Earnings; Look at the quality of Races the horse has run in.
Turf racing often features larger fields, which can make picking a winner more challenging but also lead to higher payouts. The unpredictability of weather and the variability of turf conditions require constant vigilance. However, for handicappers who invest the time to analyze these factors, turf races offer exciting opportunities to profit. I love a niche part of a niche sport, what can I say!
I'll leave you with two pieces of advice that have served me very well on the handicapping and then bet construction side of the coin:
1. Ignore outside bias: Don't read about the race before you handicap and don't look at the morning lines. I print my Formulator PPs without the Morning Line and only look at it when I'm blogging to insert into my chart. All those bias, including the talking heads on the TV broadcasts, will influence your thinking.
2. Do pay attention to the Tote Board: What other bettors think matters way more than anything else. Identify over and under lays and bet accordingly for value. No one will respect your chalky exacta win because its a recipe to lose money over the long haul. Be brave, go deep in your handicap for that late turn of foot. Remember long shots much more likely to take Place than the Win.
Anyways, enough rambling, lets get after it!
The Hollywood (please) Derby G1: 1 1/8 miles on presumably hard turf for 3 YOs.
Just a few videos to review:
26 October 2024; Twilight Derby G2: 1 1/8 Miles firm Turf, Santa Anita.
1 September 2024; Del Mar Derby G2; 1 1/8 Miles firm Turf
4 August 2024; The La Jolla Handicap (5 horse field); 1 1/6 Miles Firm Turf; Del Mar
5 October 2024; The Jockey Club Derby Invitational G3; 1 3/8 Miles firm Turf; Aqueduct.
31 October 2024; The Let it Ride Stakes $100K; 1 Mile Firm Turf; Del Mar
I think my base handicap indicates pretty clearly the lack of a true consensus chalk and the depth of this field is impressive. I generally avoid 3 YO turf races is the lack of a true sample size of efforts at this age on this surface, but if you like unpredictable and the chance of big payouts, a 13 horse field where at least two of my tosses could win, is pretty good.
I'm looking at some sort of exacta;
Let's play it out. A box of all my potential Win-Place-Show-Exotic (8 of the 13 horses) is a $56 dollar bet. The likelihood of making a return is mid to low.
I think this is more like how I'll approach:
Stay Hot/Carson's Run/Formidable Man covered in both spots and the others in the Place position, a $1 Dollar Bet for $21.
I feel like I'm being too safe with this so if I want to be higher value/higher risk:
Stay Hot/Carson's Run/Atitlan in both spots with Formidable Man,Twirling Point and Cathal in Place, a $1 Bet for $15. This is my bet.
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