Breeders' Cup Turf: Handicapping Post Mortem

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I write about mostly older horses running routes over grass, and from that I assemble exacta bets.  I've been a handicapper since the mid 1980's and a horse racing blogger since 2008.  

I didn't think Ethical Diamond had a chance.  

Nothing here screams it:  a Maiden at start of 5 YO campaign.  His jockey jumped to 2X Turf Winner Rebel's Romance.  

Nothing here screams winner:  Most of his $521K in earnings from 2025 after a brutal 2024 (someone believed in him!). The race chart implies pressing and not deep closer.  Only 1/5 of his earnings from this distance.  

Breeders' Cup Turf G1: 1 1/2 Miles for 3 YO and Up

14 September 2025;  Curragh; Irish Leger G1; 

Amiloc (GB) Place finish for 3 YO gelding.  6 of 6 Lifetime Exacta

27 September 2025; Aqueduct; Turf Classic G1;

El Cordobes (Ire) (Show 3 3/4 back), Rebel Red (GB) (5th 7 3/4 back), Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Win 3 1/2 in front ), Redistricting (GB) (Place 3 1/2 back)

23 August 2025; York (GB); Ebor Handicap Stakes  Class 2; 

Ethical Diamond (Ire) (Win by 2 1/2)

27 September 2025; Santa Anita; John Henry Turf Championship G1; 

Gold Phoenix (Ire) (Win by 1 1/4 in front) 

7 September 2025; Baden-Baden (Ger); Grosser Preis von Baden G1;

Goliath (Ger) (Win by 1 1/4 lengths)

4 October 2025; Aqueduct; Jockey Club Derby Invitational G2;

Hill Road (Show 2 1/2 lengths back)

5 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe G1; 

Minnie Hauk (Ire) (Place by a head)

4 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix Dollar G2; 

Rashabar (Ire) (4th- 4 lengths back- (French Only Video-Green, Blue Sleeves, Green Dots on White #9 horse)

4 October 2025; Woodbine; Canadian International G1; 

Silawi (Ire) (Win by a nose), Tawny Port (Place by a nose)

30 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Nashville Derby G3

Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) (Win by a head), Hill Road (Show 3 3/4 lengths back)

The Breeders Cup Turf   G1:  1 1/2 Miles on the Del Mar Turf Course, for 3 YOs and Up

What I said Prerace:

I was going to call this an interesting field, and then I thought about it, and if you removed Minnie Hauk (Ire) and Rebel's Romance (Ire) from the field, then it would be a very interesting American Grade 1 turf race.  Including them makes this a top heavy race with a fairly mediocre bottom of the field, especially at the outside posts.  The filly, Minnie Hauk (Ire), as morning line favorite at 8-5 I didn't think was appropriate.  Yes she carries 7 less pounds than Rebel's Romance but it's her 8th start, the furthest she's traveled before coming to Del Mar was Ireland to France,  a flight too short to pass out complimentary beverages. At 3 YO, if this filly wins it will be shocking and historic.  Yes she can, I don't think it will happen.  But it's not exactly like Rebel's Romance winning will provide value. The two of them combined for 51.5% of the adjusted Morning Line and 53.6% of Turk's Fair Odds.  I think we will have to get creative with the Betting Structure to realize value.

1.  Have Rebel's Romance (Ire) or Minnie Hauk (Ire) first with a few logical late runners in Place.

2. Swing for the Fence:  Put a bunch of Horses (my non-RED) in Win Spot and put both Minnie Hauk and Rebel's Romance in Place Spot.  

 I priced out both at $24 Dollar Options:

$2 Exacta:  1-8 OVER 2-10-4-3-9-6 for $24

OR

$2 Exacta 2-10-4-3-9-6 OVER 1-8

I'm not wasting money on the most logical, a 1-8 Boxed finish.  

Exacta History for 2024-2025

Tomlinson Analysis for Turf and Distance:

The Race Replay

 

Ethical Diamond's run in the visualization below is just as impressive as what my eyes saw.  Paying $282 on a $2 exacta with 2-1 Rebel's Romance, it showed the strategy I had of putting the favorites in Place and a bunch of long shots in Win Spot was sound, I just picked the wrong long shot.  Honestly, I didn't see this coming and sometimes you can complete the post mortem and come away with no other lesson except you can't win them all!

Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: Breeder's Cup Turf 2025

 

Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction.

It seems like ages ago, but this blog first handicapped a Breeders' Cup in Santa Anita in 2008.  The blog itself was conceived while watching the 2007 Breeders' Cup in rainy Monmouth Park, rest in peace George Washington.  It was a different time in the world, as Twitter was just taking hold and people actually read, and gasp, commented on, long form blogs.  Blogs are seeing a  resurgence with sites like Substack, but it was a heady time in horse racing when bloggers were aplenty, covering the sport from every point of view possible.  

I never kidded myself, I'm not a turf writer, just a guy who has been handicapping for the better part of 40 years, a horse racing fan since the mid 1970's and a decent analytical brain (shout out US Navy Nuclear Power Program and 30 years in business culminating in becoming a CEO-shout out to perseverance, shout out to luck, shout out to poor work-life balance.) I digress

As I handicapper, I work all year for this upcoming weekend.  My choice of handicaps isn't random, I'm progressing either through a single meet, or progressing through a stakes calendar for this weekend.  All the Graded Stakes handicapped invests me into these horses, and sets me up to be my sharpest as a player when the handle is big and money is to be made.  Earlier this week I posted a blog entry with all the video on these runners,  I wont repeat that, but you can find it here.  

Let's get After it:

The Breeders Cup Turf   G1:  1 1/2 Miles on the Del Mar Turf Course, for 3 YOs and Up

I was going to call this an interesting field, and then I thought about it, and if you removed Minnie Hauk (Ire) and Rebel's Romance (Ire) from the field, then it would be a very interesting American Grade 1 turf race.  Including them makes this a top heavy race with a fairly mediocre bottom of the field, especially at the outside posts.  The filly, Minnie Hauk (Ire), as morning line favorite at 8-5 I didn't think was appropriate.  Yes she carries 7 less pounds than Rebel's Romance but it's her 8th start, the furthest she's traveled before coming to Del Mar was Ireland to France,  a flight too short to pass out complimentary beverages. At 3 YO, if this filly wins it will be shocking and historic.  Yes she can, I don't think it will happen.  But it's not exactly like Rebel's Romance winning will provide value. The two of them combined for 51.5% of the adjusted Morning Line and 53.6% of Turk's Fair Odds.  I think we will have to get creative with the Betting Structure to realize value.

1.  Have Rebel's Romance (Ire) or Minnie Hauk (Ire) first with a few logical late runners in Place.

2. Swing for the Fence:  Put a bunch of Horses (my non-RED) in Win Spot and put both Minnie Hauk and Rebel's Romance in Place Spot.  

 I priced out both at $24 Dollar Options:

$2 Exacta:  1-8 OVER 2-10-4-3-9-6 for $24

OR

$2 Exacta 2-10-4-3-9-6 OVER 1-8

I'm not wasting money on the most logical, a 1-8 Boxed finish.  

Exacta History for 2024-2025

Tomlinson Analysis for Turf and Distance:

Have Fun Friends, Turk Out! 

Breeders Cup Handicapping Homework: The Breeders' Cup Turf Video Review and Observations

Happy Breeders Cup Week! As a Turf Handicapper, my Super Bowl(s) are all on Saturday:

• Race 8 Post Time 5:41 ET:  Breeders' Cup Turf G1 at 1 1/2 miles
• Race 10 Post Time 7:05 ET: Breeders' Cup Mile G1
• Race 12: Post Time 8:25 ET:  Breeders' Cup F&M Turf G1 at 1 3/8 miles

When you focus on such a niche like Turf Racing, and specifically high end Grade 1 and 2 Turf racing, you get a familiarity with the athletes that really makes handicapping much easier.  The wild card of course is the foreign runners that I've watched little of, as well as current form of the runners who I loved in the summer but are they still the same horse months later?  That's why we do this, the mental challenge of handicapping is something that I thoroughly enjoy.  I've been getting inundated with ads in my social media feeds for AI assisted handicapping.  I understand wanting to get an edge, but this is so lame.  If you need to resort to AI picking winners you might as well just go to the VFW, get loaded up on Old Milwaukee, and do pull tabs all night.  Horse Race Handicapping is for intelligent people to excel, and while the bar keeps getting lowered, we don't have to lower our personal standards.  Say no to AI assisted handicapping.  OK, rant over.   

Lets Get after It.

Breeders' Cup Turf G1: 1 1/2 Miles for 3 YO and Up

When I am starting my homework I try not to get lost in the data at first and just take in as much last race video as possible:

14 September 2025;  Curragh; Irish Leger G1; 

Amiloc (GB) Place finish for 3 YO gelding.  6 of 6 Lifetime Exacta

27 September 2025; Aqueduct; Turf Classic G1;

El Cordobes (Ire) (Show 3 3/4 back), Rebel Red (GB) (5th 7 3/4 back), Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Win 3 1/2 in front ), Redistricting (GB) (Place 3 1/2 back)

23 August 2025; York (GB); Ebor Handicap Stakes  Class 2; 

Ethical Diamond (Ire) (Win by 2 1/2)

27 September 2025; Santa Anita; John Henry Turf Championship G1; 

Gold Phoenix (Ire) (Win by 1 1/4 in front) 

7 September 2025; Baden-Baden (Ger); Grosser Preis von Baden G1;

Goliath (Ger) (Win by 1 1/4 lengths)

4 October 2025; Aqueduct; Jockey Club Derby Invitational G2;

Hill Road (Show 2 1/2 lengths back)

5 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe G1; 

Minnie Hauk (Ire) (Place by a head)

4 October 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix Dollar G2; 

Rashabar (Ire) (4th- 4 lengths back- (French Only Video-Green, Blue Sleeves, Green Dots on White #9 horse)

4 October 2025; Woodbine; Canadian International G1; 

Silawi (Ire) (Win by a nose), Tawny Port (Place by a nose)

30 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Nashville Derby G3

Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) (Win by a head), Hill Road (Show 3 3/4 lengths back)

That is most recent video on all of the possible field.  There is plenty to digest there.  We'll be back tomorrow to dive in further.  

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Review with Video: The John Henry G2 at Santa Anita and Joe Hirsch G1 at Aqueduct

Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where I specialize in turf race handicapping and exacta bet constructions.  Yesterday we handicapped the John Henry Turf Championship G2 at Santa Anita, and I discussed, but did not handicap, The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1 at Aqueduct (no, I won't pretend that it's Belmont).  

Breeders' Cup is 33 days from now, 5 weeks from last Friday.  After next weekend, and with very few exceptions after that, all the preps for Breeders' Cup will be done and I will turn my attention to handicapping, beginning with as much video as I can lay my hands on for the last 2-3 races for each horse I'm focused on.  I'm not really a Triple Crown fella, I like data, and these turf race contestants at the Breeders' Cup come with loads of data and video.  Heaven for a handicapping nerd such as I.  

The John Henry was no great surprise.  My base handicap had Gold Phoenix as an A+ and odds on favorite while I had Stay Hot as Place horse, an A rating and second best odds.  They both went off at $1.50- 1 odds with Stay Hot considered the incremental chalk.  My bet construction was singled on Mondego ($6.20-1) finally figuring it out and using his incredible turn of foot tactically to win a race.  It didn't happen and may never happen.  

27 September 2025;  John Henry Turf Championship G2; DMR; 1 1/4 Miles on firm turf.  

 

 Race Chart:

Horse Name	PP	1/4	1/2	3/4	1M	STR	FIN
Gold Phoenix (IRE)	7	7	7	7	61	31	11 ¼
Stay Hot	6	5hd	62	6½	7	7	2nk
Spycatcher	3	22	21 ½	21 ½	21	1½	31
Mondego (GB)	5	61 ½	5½	52	5½	4hd	41 ¾
Balladeer	2	12 ½	14	14 ½	12	2hd	51 ¼
Dicey Mo Chara (GB)	4	42	3½	31 ½	4½	6½	6¾
Rastaman Vibe	1	31	42	41 ½	3hd	5hd	7

 

 Race Chart Visualization: 

Joe Hirsch also went as expected.  Rebel's Romance  (Ire) is a beast, going off at $0.64-1  with Redistricting getting longest odds you can expect him to get, $5.31 -1.   

 

27 September 2025;  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1; 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf. 

 

:

Have fun friends, Turk out.

The Nomination Is In: The John Henry Turf Championship G2 at Santa Anita

Mondego (GB) gobbling up lengths at the wire

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in exactly the kind of race I'm handicapping today, the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship at Santa Anita, competed by mostly hard knocking veterans of the scene.  This is the Turk's favorite time of the year as a horse player, getting ready for final prep races for Breeders' Cup over the next two weekends and then, what turns into a video review of the year in horse racing, my prep for Breeders' Cup, which will be extensive this year, as I'm finally able to have a bit of work-life balance again and feel calm enough to dedicate the time I use to for that homework assignment.  

I looked at the marathon distance Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1 run at Belmont at Big A (Temu Belmont), and while the purse was bigger, the class of horse was greater (magnificent Redistricting, $14M Rebel's Romance and Far Bridge), I'm going to just enjoy that one from a fans perspective as the field is a bit small.  

Let's get right into it!

 2 Wins.

23 Starts.

The number of winners at the distance and the combined starts at the distance.  The field is a mixed bag with the real class and proven graded stakes competitors Stay Hot and Gold Phoenix (Ire).  

30 August 2025; The Del Mar Handicap G2; 1 3/8 Miles on firm turf.  Gold Phoenix won his fourth straight and The Turk blogged it here.  

The two prime win candidates will be challenged by some unheralded horses that are trying to break into contender territory from mediocre.  

Rastaman Vibe:  cutting back 1f off his very game OC$50K win at Del Mar 20 days ago. Trainer Knapp claimed him on that day and entered the 4 YO here.  13 SA Turf Starts, no exacta finishes. Woof.  

Mondego (GB):  Why do we watch video?  Watch the Del Mar Handicap above and watch Mondego (GB) at the top of the stretch go wide outside and watch his closing kicks: powerful, long strides.  Less traffic, slightly less early speed pressure, you can't watch him and not think he's very dangerous, especially Conditioner McCarthy and Kimura, Up, get him into the right place.  

Exacta History: Life, Turf, Distance, Track

Tomlinson Analysis

Exacta Comparison/Class

Timeform Early and Late US Pace

What do we do with all of this? Santa Anita Race 6: The John Henry Turf Championshi>p G2; 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf I'm not sure I'm an investor in this one, but if I do, I'm looking for pure value: $2 Exacta, 5 OVER 1-6-7 for $6 Bucks. Have fun friends, Turk Out!