The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. The Turk has his methods, and they work for me. One of those methods I employ is to not allow outside bias into my handicapping. Years ago I had a subscription to Bloodhorse, a wonderful magazine, and I would read about the horses, the trainers and the connections, and biases would form. I'm a sucker for a good story, who isn't? I'm also a degenerate gambler and there is no place in gambling for biases because the horse is named in memory of someone. I'm not a robot, I love a good human interest story, just after I handicap and place my bets. Occasionally that works against me as I guess I was one of the few people who didn't realize Mindframe was going to be scratched. Generally I would see on my Past Performances "Also Entered" with a date and then I know its a chance, but this is a rare situation where two horses, trained by the same trainer, primarily owned by the same people, entered the same race planning to scratch one or the other. I don't think it's good for horse racing for best not to face best, but whatever.
The scratch changes nothing for me really and in fact makes my strategy easier. Only one beast, Fierceness, needs to finish no better than Place, preferably no better than Show, and the exacta ticket gets saucy.
7-2-3 OVER 7-2-3-5-9, a $2 exacta for $24 dollars. It's pricier than I like or may do, but the handle will justify it. Here's hoping Fierceness drops to Show.
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I generally handicap turf races and construct exacta bets. While I do like Turf Racing, especially older horses over a route of grass, I don't ignore the dirt, especially this current crop of older dirt runners that is deep and very talented. I still generally avoid 2-3 YOs on dirt because I just find I'm not that good at that, but a field like today's Whitney at Saratoga, who can't be excited?
I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan as always for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today. You can find my work at my new Facebook Page as well as a new Twitter/X handle, or just come to my blog. Thank you.
Let's just dive right in. I'm only highlighting two videos today, Mindframe's Stephen Foster Handicap win and Fierceness at The Alysheba. I could have kept going but something like the Met Mile, run in slop, just isn't that relevant.
28 June 2025; Stephen Foster Handicap G1 at CD: 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt
2 May 2025; The Alysheba Stakes G2 at CD: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt (Track Record for Fierceness)
I generally don't get that hung up on stats such as post time favorites who win, but as this shows below, two turn dirt races at Saratoga are kinder to chalk than the moniker of "graveyards of favorites" would have you believe. There is also difficult odds with deep closers .
I define deep closers as I'm handicapping by subtracting Timeform US Pace Late from Early. Anything greater than 50 points and I consider that a deep closer. For example today, Sierra Leone has Early of 62, a Late of 132, a +70 differential. You can see it in the running lines. Because of the placement of the gate right before the first turn, Sierra Leone will fall further back tactically and will need a pace collapse to rally against. My identified deep closers also includes Disarm and Post Time.
Outside posts, like most tracks, will have lower odds. Quality horses defy those odds. For no particular reason, I give you 2008's Kentucky Derby and Big Brown (rest in peace Eight Belles).
Some facts to nibble on regarding Saratoga (with sources linked below):
Among all two‑turn dirt races at Saratoga, the completion‐of‐the‐distance (post time favorites) win rate is around 42.8%. (1)
In those races, the majority of winners tend to be either early speed horses (pacesetters) or trackers/stalkers, while true deep closers have notably less success, especially on the main track—closing types rarely prevail unless the pace collapses. (2)
Wire‑to‑wire/front‑runner winners likely account for roughly 30–40% of wins at this distance, depending on pace.
Closers probably win in the low‑teens percentage, especially on main‑track routes.
Stalkers/pressers dominate many of the remaining races. (2) (3)
The starting gate for 9‑furlong dirt races at Saratoga is positioned just before the first turn, which gives inside posts (1–4) a meaningful advantage if the horse has early speed, as they can secure a favorable position before the turn. (4)
Historically, the inside four posts have shown a slight edge in win percentage in Saratoga two‑turn dirt races (i.e. at the 9 furlong distance). (5)
Races from posts 8 and wider have been statistically disadvantaged: in one analyzed sample, horses drawn from post positions 8 and outward combined to be 1‑for‑31 in victories, roughly ~3% win rate from those wide posts. (5)
That leaves middle posts (5–7) winning a substantial share of races, sometimes outperforming expectations or at least compensating for favoritism bias. (5)
If drawn post 1–3 in a 9‑furlong dirt route at Saratoga: your horse has historically enjoyed a ~50–55% chance of being the winner.
Drawing post 4–6 still offers a solid ~10–12% win rate, reflective of middle-post performance.
Posts 7 onward yield drastically lower success rates—typically <5% per post—mainly due to early turn dynamics and shorter run to the first bend. (6)
The weather should be dry. You'll find Track Condition and Scratches and Changes here.
Fair Odds: The Whitney Grade 1 at Saratoga.
A race like today's Whitney for me is about establishing who should win, how the public views them (via the flawed morning line, my fair odds chart and the tote board), and what sort of contrarian view I can take in my exacta bet construction. I say in today's race, but this is a process I follow for every race, with the only difference on a big handle day like today will be, I may go a bit deeper as the reward will be greater with the bigger handle.
While I want contrarian, and the odds still say somewhere between 60-67% of favorites lose, it's hard not to like either Fierceness of Mindframe here. Early speed, Late speed, tactical speed, Pletcher brings two beasts into the gate.
From a contrarian point of view, White Abarrio and Highland Falls are Grade 1 winners over this track and can easily be overlooked.
White Abarrio at 6 YO now won this race as a 4 YO. He's been training at Saratoga steady since late June after running in the slop of the Met Mile. A $1.7 MM 2025 winner can't just be ignorned. Highland Falls, true value at 8-1 or so, took the classic distance Gold Cup at Saratoga last September. Prat jumped off, but Cox brings the lightly races 5 YO son of Curlin in off a heavy favorite 1 mile win.
I'm going to take a $2 Flyer and put Highland Falls/White Abarrio OVER Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Mindframe, a $2 exacta for $12.
As always, have fun with it and don't be afraid to lose. As your handicapping improves, trust your own instincts over the bias of the media articles or track commentators, or bald, third person talking handicappers like The Turk. Look for value over betting favorites.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 18th year. I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.
While only a seven horse field, with one horse, Ashcroft, being a cut well below, the other six, wow: All six combine for $25.9 MM in career earnings, a Breeders' Cup Classic Winner, a Kentucky Derby Winner, a Blue Grass Winner and a Dubai World Cup. That's a pretty impressive field.
Let's take a deeper dive into the field and look at some video as well.
Oaklawn Handicap G2; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 19 April 2025
The Churchill Downs G1; 7f on slop; 3 May 2025
The "Hollywood" Gold Cup G2; 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt; 26 May 2025
New Orleans Classic G2; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 22 March 2025
Blame G3; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 31 May 2025
Clark Handicap G2; 1 1/8 on Fast Dirt; 29 November 2024
Dubai World Cup G1; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt (LH)
So what to do with this? I'll be honest, I'm not sure without seeing the toteboard odds. I'm leaning towards Sierra Leone OVER First Mission and Skippylongstocking. 4 OVER 1 and 3, a $2 Dollar bet for $4.
Nothing exciting, just my thoughts of what might have value.
