The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Showing posts with label Fort Washington. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fort Washington. Show all posts
Welcome friends To The Turk Blog. I focus on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. While I generally eschew social media. I noticed this morning quite a bit of distain for the exacta pools around the horse racing fandom. If you pay attention to my base handicap, ignore the bet construction, you'll find I pick winners and build a fair odds table that is much more accurate than a Morning Line and does a fair good job against the Tote Board. I use to bet Superfectas. I like to go horizontal and bet Pick X on cards when I'm not blogging as it takes a lot of typing time for that effort. My point is, use the base handicap and make whatever bet you'd like. I focus on Exactas. I get it, I've been burned too. I focus mostly on Stakes Races for the blog, big purse money too, races I expect a lot of handle on. That insulates me pretty good, but I get it. Whatever you do, have fun, otherwise why do it. I think the proliferation of sports gambling is what will kill this sport. It takes skill to handicap. The powers that be horde a lot of information. Betting the major sports is just easier. I'm almost 60, I hope to still be blogging and enjoying races until I'm dead, God willing, but will there be a sport for our grandkids to enjoy? Doubtful unless it reinvents the way it markets itself. That's the type of meaty question I let the real turf writers opine about, I'm just a degenerate gambler with a love of the horses that is 50 years old now.
Let's get after it!
6 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Turf Cup G2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf
3 August 2025; Ellis Park; KD Preview Turf Cup $300K; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf
9 August 2025; Colonial Downs; The Arlington Million G1; 1 1/4 Mile Firm Turf
9 August 2025; Saratoga; The Sword Dancer G1; 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf- El Rezeen from the back with Davis, Up; gets Irad Ortiz Jr. today.
19 July 2025; Monmouth Park; The United Nations G2; 1 3/8 miles firm turf. (In Spanish- Look for 1 horse Tawny Port and 4 Horse, Place, Grand Sonata and 5 horse, Vote No)
19 April 2025; Keeneland; The Elkhorn G2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf
Visualization of Timeform Early to Late; takeaway, lots of late movers as you'd expect.
Tomlinson Review for Turf and Distance; Takeaway, no surprises where the Class leaders rank.
And a look at the Exacta Finishes over Lifetime, Turf, Distance and Kentucky Downs;
What to make of all of this? I like the grizzled Vets in this race. Quite frankly I like my Base Handicap quite a bit, enough to box up a Superfecta if I was so inclined.
If I'm looking for value it's El Rezeen who I like more than most (foolish or not). To win? I'd be hard pressed top say that, but to spice up the Place spot.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. Remember, this is a no brag zone, but it's not bragging to say I've been fire over the grass with the exacta's, taking down favorites left and right. My no favorite Exacta Bet cost $18 but paid $88. These are the bets that drive ROI for the horseplayer.
Again, another race with a better than even money favorite fell to Show. 60% of the time the favorites lose. It's an angle I love to exploit. I do everything in my power to avoid bias in my handicapping and betting. The pretty girls on FanDuel TV can be compelling, the ex-Jock can be compelling, but its all bias. I find I'm more successful not knowing if the horse is named after someone who's sick or died, or a feel good news item about the connections. I'm human and I love a good human interest story (I cried a lot about the story behind Cody's Wish- but I still bet against him!) just not if it brings bias to me. Anyways, looking at a wide sample size we ask ChatGPT how often the favorite Wins-Places or Shows.
For turf racing only in the U.S., the numbers for post-time favorites shift slightly lower than Dirt because:
Turf races often have larger fields and more competitive entries than dirt races.
Pace dynamics can create more upsets, but the favorite still performs strongly.
📊 Typical U.S. turf racing averages (compiled from multi-year Equibase & DRF summaries):
Win: ~33–34%
Place (1st or 2nd): ~55–57%
Show (1st, 2nd, or 3rd): ~71–73%
That means favorites on turf finish in the top two a little more than half the time, slightly less than the overall racing average (≈58–60%).
9 August 2025; Cnl; The Arlington Million G1 on Firm Turf.
With all due respect, Mystik Dan didn't deserve $3.7-1 odds. He's done nothing on Turf and for a $4.5 MM lifetime winner, looks washed at Grade 1 level. An emotionless gambler needs to look for these angles, over bet name recognition horses. I think Integration is a good horse, a horse for the course, but he's not Secretariat! Those odds were too short at $0.6-1.
I said I didn't think Vesting (Ire) scratch meant anything to the pace, and it didn't. I liked Cairo but he was so wet in his shoulders I was not shocked how he flattened. Time Song and Runaway Storm are still running and I rightly tossed them. That left Fort Washington and Grand Sonata, both of whom I thought were overlooked and in great form.
Keep handicapping, keep looking for the patterns that repeat over and over and over. As your handicapping improves, your bet construction will improve.
A simple bet construction I offered up prerace paid $88 on an $18 bet. I had the superfecta in my handicap as well, but that's a drug I avoid these days!
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I handicap (mostly) older horses, (mostly) running over routes of grass and I build exactas (almost always) from the information. I believe in the following core principles: Last speed is better than early (mostly), Older Horses give you more data and more predictability (mostly), Class matters (almost always), bet against favorites (60% of the time they lose) (almost always), build a base handicap that isn't your bet but is the best horses with best chance to win (everytime), build and adjust odds so you can compare to fair odds table (always), have fun, don't take yourself too seriously, and stay humble (forever).
Now that I bared my soul to you, let me say I hate that they call these races Arlington anything. Arlington, to me, the most beautiful track, with an incredible turf course, that truly attracted top European talent, was destroyed by greed and the poor leadership within the track ownership community. Don't insult my intelligence with this BS. While I'm happy they actually have a purse of $1.0 MM still, remember in 1981 dollars when this race started, that $1.0 MM is now worth $3.54 MM. The race hasn't progressed and that's why, along with other reasons, it's a poor excuse of a G1. That's The Turk's two cents, I generally don't get into such weighty subjects, but there you go.
My son and I made many trips to Arlington over the last decade. Those are memories I will always cherish. I've told my backstory and my connection to the Arlington fire of 1985 before and you can find it in this link. This track closure hurt because it was done because of terrible state leadership and the pursuit of slot revenue, terrible track ownership and apathy. When you lose the good things in life they seldom come back.
Anyways, lets get back to the handicapping. I've been experimenting with AI lately. While very rudimentary, I upload the PDF of the Past Performance to ChatGPT and build charts of data I like to see and compile generally by hand (Tomlinsons, Beyers, Early and Late Timeform, Class by number of Stakes Wins). It speeds things up for me. Next I will figure out how to automate to make the process quicker and repeatable. I'd love to incorporate more API data into what I do but I won't pay the crazy prices for DataStream access the monopolies over this sport demand. If anyone has an idea and wants to collaborate, let me know.
8 June 2025; SAR; The Manhattan G1; 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf
19 July 2025; Mth; The United Nations G2; 1 3/8 Miles on firm Turf
17 May 2025; Pim; The Dinner Party G3; 1 1/8 miles on Good Turf.
17 June 2025; Ascot (GB); The Queen Anne Stakes G1; 1 Mile on "Good to Firm" turf.
What to do with all of this? I like Integration a lot here: 9 of 14 in Turf Exactas, 4 of 4 in Colonial Exactas. Training very sharply over turf at Saratoga including a bullet :46 4/5ths at 4f with 51 others that day. Feels right with a 5 YO son of Quality Road running well in Virginia. Mr. Evans smiles.
I'm going to bet that he finishes no better than Place. Fort Washington, Cairo and Grand Sonata OVER Fort Washington, Cairo,Grand Sonata and Integration, a $2 exacta for $18.
Sometimes the best bet is the one you don't make. Vesting, who I didn't think could possibly win, just scratched. a seven horse race now, and Vesting leaving doesn't change the pace consideration for me (poor early speed, mid late).
If anything I'm less inclined to bet $18. Try Fort Washington, Cairo and Grand Sonata OVER Integration, a $2 Bet for $6. Mid value/low risk.
