The Nomination Is In: The Gamely Grade 1 at Santa Anita

 

Rashmi- Benoit Photo

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 19th season of Horse Racing Handicapping, where we have (almost) exclusively handicapped Turf Racing for (mostly) Four year old's and Up over (generally) Routes of Grass up to the Classic Distance.  How is that for a niche blog POV writing about a niche sport in decline?  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today.

19 Seasons of Blogging.  I'm not sure if that is an accomplishment or a sad indictment on my life's choices.  I thought Horse Racing was in decline culturally in 2007, and in hindsight the loss of racetracks and the drop in handle should have made it obvious what was coming.  

The statistics are sobering.  There are years when I wonder why I do what I do, but the fact is, I love the animals.  The people, some I like, most I don't, but these equine athletes are who I am loyal to and who I love.   They were bred to run, and while I mourn the race track deaths, without racing, these animals wouldn't be bred at all.  

Where are we now? Total handle on US Thoroughbred racing in 2025 was $11 billion — a sobering number when you put it next to when I started in 2007. 

Here's the big picture:

• 2003 peak: $15.2 billion
• 2007: $14.7 billion
• 2025: $11.0 billion

When factoring in inflation, betting handle has fallen about 57% over the last 22 years. 2025 marked the sixth time in the last seven years that handle has fallen. 

The number of US races fell below 30,000 for the first time since the mid-1950s.

There are many reasons for this, with Computer Assisted Wagering near the top of my list as a player, plus shortsighted and foolish human leadership.  

The one bright spot: bettors wagered more per race than any year in history besides the Covid year of 2020 — so the people still playing are betting more, there are just far fewer of them.

To me, the bigger issue is the loss of racetracks.  While we still have most of the major tracks, they are supported by smaller tracks all over the country, and those are disappearing.  No fewer than 49 racetracks have closed since 2000, and at least a dozen of those closures have come since Covid in 2020 alone. I never thought in my lifetime we'd see Aqueduct, Arlington Park, Hialeah, Hollywood Park and Golden Gate Fields all gone, and that's just to name a few.  

Arlington Park in Illinois after 94 years, Golden Gate Fields in California after 83 years, and Freehold Raceway in New Jersey after 171 years. On the West Coast, Hollywood Park closed in 2013 after 75 years and Bay Meadows closed in 2008 after 74 years.

Since 2000, 41 racetracks permanently closed, with 26 of those within the last 10 years. In contrast, only 2 new racetracks with casinos opened. 

The blunt bottom line: the industry has lost roughly one track every five months for 25 years straight, with almost nothing opening to replace them. Kentucky is essentially the last island of health in the sport, propped up by casino and Historical Horse Racing money, while the rest of the country contracts. 

Combined with the handle data — $15.2 billion in 2003 down to $11 billion in 2025 — it paints a picture of an industry that has lost nearly half its infrastructure and about 30% of its wagering base in a single generation.

When I was growing up in the late 1970's and early 1980's, Formula One, Horse Racing and Heavy Weight Boxing were my favorite sports.  I read the sports page of the newspaper and I was a Sports Illustrated subscription holder and I watched ABC Wide World of Sports.  All three of those sports were headed for the dustbin of irrelevancy, but Formula One figured it out and it's booming, while Boxing is a shell of itself and horse racing infighting and lack of real leadership is killing the sport before our eyes.  

F1 Values (USD)

But I digress, you came to maybe read about 3 year old and up Fillies and Mares in the Grade 1 Comely and I'm writing the obituary of horse racing.  It may die, but not today! Lets get after it. 

Early to Late TIMEFORM PACE

The chart above is a Left to Right visualization of the early speed to the closing speed. Thought Process is the most consistent Early Speed, Rashmi with a small sample size is fastest flat runner while Take a Breath and Hang the Moon are Deep closers.  

The chart above counts the number of 20-26 and 2025 races only.  The Standard Deviation is a way of implied consistent efforts.  In a small sample size Rashmi has three Beyer Speed Figures of very similar outcomes, raced respectively at 1 Mile on Firm Turf at Santa Anita.  She own 2 of the 4 90+ Beyer Speed Figs recorded since 2025 by this group.  

It's getting harder as the years go on to find video on all the races.  Apologies, Fan Duel mostly uploads Top of the Stretch to the Wire video, but that said, I found the last race for every runner in the field which is unusual.  

25 April 2026: Santa Anita: The Royal Heroine G3; 1 Mile  Firm Turf; Take a Breath (Win), May Day Ready (Place 1/2 back)

12 April 2026: Keeneland: Allowance N1X $97K; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf; Vronti (GB) (Win by 1/2 length)

28 March 2026; Gulfstream Park: Sand Springs Lane $150K; 1 1/16 Firm Turf ; Hang the Moon (Place-neck)

28 March 2026; Santa Anita: The Wilshire G3; 1 Mile on Firm Turf; Rashmi (Win by 2 3/4)

15 March 2026 Santa Anita:  Santa Ana Stakes G3; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf.  Take A Breath(W), Public Assembly (1st to 4th last furlong)

28 February 2026: Santa Anita: The Buena Vista G2; 1 Mile  Firm Turf; Thought Process (Win by 2)

Is that enough information for you?  It's too much for one race, but I like to practice like I play.   I handicap a lot of races that I don't play, I handicap the same way, with consistent data analysis, and when I do play, my ROI on Turf, at Distance, with older runners, is consistently good.  Could I make a living doing this?  No.  Can I have fun when I do occasionally bet money, absolutely!

I'll come back and update the chart at my blog when they publish the Morning Lines.  I don't use Morning Lines for handicapping but I like them for reference against my fair odds.  

I suspect Thought Process will be the betting public pick.  I'm not sure he shouldn't be, but I'm looking at value and I'll be leaving him out of the exacta at my own peril, at best adding him to Place.  Rashmi, the next great Augustin Stable winner for owner and Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member George Strawbridge Jr, is my pick.  

It's early, lots of Turf racing to go in 2026, and for me, now is about figuring out who's a contender and who's a pretender. The time for wagering comes when I've seen a few races from each of these horses to know what we have on our hands.

Have fun friends, Turk Out.

Post Race Review with Video: The Del Mar Oaks G1

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on turf runners and exacta betting.  

Know Thy Self!  I should know to avoid 3 YOs.  My ROI tells me to avoid them, but I do like getting a feel for the next crop of up and comers.  Why do I avoid 3 YO's?  So much uncertainty and so little actual performance that can be quantified.  

Velocity.  I noted the last race at Dmr, a 1 1/16 that she rallied off of to finish late.  I also noted the 75 Beyer, the fact it was her fourth start, her only graded stakes start, a G3, she faltered at 6.5f, I noted the distance Tomlinson was 3rd best, and her post position of 3 wins quite a bit of turf races at this distance since 2022 (2nd most behind Post 4).  I thought she had a legitimate chance to finish top 3, but win a Grade 1.  Didn't see that coming BUT the breadcrumbs were there for those with better eyes.  Hard to dislike the 35-1 odds on a high class, last time winner at Dmr.  

Things we got right?  Didn't believe Thought Process deserved being bet down that low and also didn't believe a front runner could run on an extra 660 feet against this field.  Got that right.

Believed in Lush Lips (GB).  Again shows the frivolity of looking at Morning Lines, as the betting public got all the dogs right and bet Lush Lips down hard.  9th start for the shipper who had at least a track record of graded stakes competitiveness, losing twice to the same day Saratoga Alabama G1  winner, Nitrogen. Dirt and Turf Graded Stakes winner Nitrogen is impressive BTW.  I have to think savvy gamblers looked at that Alabama result 3 hours earlier and rethought Lush Lips (GB).

My gamble was on Firenze Flavor.  Too far back and maybe needs more distance.  Too big a stretch for me.  

It's ok not to win.  Learn something from every race and every handicap.  Patterns repeat, look for them.  I've been doing this a very long time and I'm still learning. 

Also, what a great ride Jock R. Gonzalez for Trainer M. McCarthy.  he saved ground the whole way and when the rail opened, he threaded a needle and took it.  

16 August 2025; Del Mar Oaks G1;  1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf.

The Nomination Is In: The Del Mar Oaks G1

Hand ride for Thought Process G2 San Clemente

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I usually specialize in handicapping older horses running over a route of grass, with which I turn into exacta bets.  Simple premise.  Today I'm handicapping the Del Mar Oaks, and while only 3 YOs, I don like to get some looks at the next up and comers.  My issue with the younger horses is they lack data.  The more information as a handicapper you have, the better.  With younger horses I modify my key angles slightly and I focus on class, wins at the distance, wins at the track, trainer intentions.  27 wins combined for the 11 starters.  3 Graded Stakes Wins.  Best late speed is Edge of Mali (IRE) at 107 followed by Firenze Flavor at 102.  Best early speed is Thought Process at 116 and the next closest is Slick (Ire) at 97.  Slick (Ire) and Lush Lips have the best Turf Tomlinson's in mid 380's while Striver is best Distance Tomlinson at 409.  

Let's take a look at Thought Process and her dominant win in the one mile San Clemente.  Don't underestimate the power of the extra 660 feet today, but no one was catching her on this day. 

19 July 2025:  Dmr; The San Clemente G2;  1 Mile over Firm Turf

Casalu gave good chase running well past his Turf and Distance Tomlinson's.  Tomlison's have thier place, especially in these younger horses. 

Tomlinson Numbers were created by pedigree experts Leon Rasmussen and Leon Tomlinson in the 1970s and 1980s. They were designed to give horseplayers a quick numerical measure of how a horse’s breeding suggests it will perform under certain racing conditions such as turf, dirt, distance, or wet tracks.

The numbers are calculated from pedigree data. They look at how successful a horse’s ancestors—particularly the sire and dam—have been under a given condition. This produces a three-digit figure, where higher numbers mean the pedigree shows more strength for that surface or distance. For example, a turf Tomlinson of 380 or higher suggests strong turf ability in the pedigree, while a 250 would suggest little turf influence.

The Daily Racing Form began including Tomlinson Numbers in Past Performances in 1991. They quickly became popular with bettors because they help answer unknown questions, such as whether a horse trying turf for the first time might be bred for it, or whether a sprinter stretching out in distance may have the stamina in its bloodlines. They are especially useful for first-time starters, surface switches, and stretch-outs.

There are limits to Tomlinson Numbers. They do not measure actual ability, fitness, or class—only what the pedigree suggests. A horse with a high Tomlinson may still run poorly, and a horse with a low one may still succeed if its individual talent or training outweighs its bloodlines.

Remember what we are trying to do here, two separate tasks:

• Handicap (place in order) who should win.  
• Exacta Bet:  Who can beat my top win candidate who might finish in second.

That's how I look at the races.  I'm not a fan boy (although I do love the horses and I have my favorites) but I am a degenerate (not really) gambler who is trying to beat the track with highly slanted odds in the house's direction.  You don't do that betting chalk.  You also don't do that when you don't think anyone can beat the chalk.  I don't see Thought Process as unbeatable, it's her 8th start, she's won 5 , 3 of 4 at Del Mar, 5 of 6 on Turf, bullet work at 5f.  That's impressive, but we want to beat her.  The Tomlinson's coupled with other information from race charts and past performances, plus video, informs me of who might.

Let's get after it!

The turf will be Firm with low chance of rain.  You'll find scratches and changes here.

Dmr; The Del Mar Oaks G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf

 

Thought Process, shouldn't be pressed to hard early, and she should bein the lead without too much effort.  Can she hold on? 660 feet.  1 extra furlong. I'm looking at the group of Firenze Flavor, Casalu, Lush Lips (GB) and Will Then to challenge early and late.  I like the two, Firenze Flavor and Casalu to win with Thought Process, Lush Lips or Will Then to Place.  8/9 OVER 8/9/10/5/7 a $2 Bet for $16.  

I said it, I think they will catch Thought Process.  Am I convinced, not really, but that's my angle.  If you believe in the horse, then switch gears and add some of the longer odd deep closers to the place position, single Thought Process OVER Firenze Flavor and Will Then, a $2 Exacta for $4.  Not a bad play.  

Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!