Post Race Analysis for Raceday May 16, 2009: The Preakness Stakes Grade I at Pimlico

Race 12 Pimlico: The Preakness Stakes Grade I; 1 3/16 Miles on MD Dirt for 3 YOs.



As the horses were loading into the gate, the SAT TV signal at Papa Turk's house disappeared. The 1930's descended upon us. Luckily, an upsurge in horse racing popularity put the race back on the local AM sports radio station for the first time in years, and I had the radio on and the station tuned in just as the gate broke open. Any disappointment I had quickly went away, as listening to the race call on the feed from the Horse Racing Radio Network was very exciting. Not once until the final furlong was the name Mine That Bird spoken on the radio waves, and Musket Man breaking free and chasing was something that was easy to visualize. I enjoyed listening to the Preakness on the radio very much and it created quite a memorable moment for all the Turk clan gathered together. It was a moment right out of Transistor Times as our friend at Equispace would say.

I think I had a pretty good handicap. I was disappointed to see Friesen Fire not show up again, but I was not surprised by the belly flop of Pioneerof the Nile. I thought Calvin Borel did the only thing he could with Rachel Alexandra, which was take her fast out the gate and try to be near the rail and near the front by the first turn. It was an athletic but tiring move and two more hops to the wire and I think Mine That Bird is shocking the race world again. Mike Smith had to do it the hard way, and that little gelding proved beyond any doubt that he has speed and guts. I'm already getting excited about The Travers, we could see a real showdown of horses coming off the mend and horses from this Triple Crown run.

I worked my handicap. It was a methodical bet I built off of what I laid out as the likely order of finish. I hedged Friesen Fire dropping and that paid off. I placed a premium on current form, and that allowed me to not seriously consider Big Drama. The Belmont is three weeks away and that is already setting up to be an exciting showdown. You have to wonder how many will enter, as 1 1/2 miles is a taxing race and any horseman takes pause about the toll his horse will pay just for competing in that race. For more up to the minute analysis and discussion of the Belmont Stakes, read the excellent blogs at the official website as well as take a look at the revamped and very professional looking Throughbred Bloggers Alliance homepage. Don't forget to take advantage of the TBA coupon for cheap PPs at the Daily Race Form. You'll find the coupon code at our home page in the banner on the left.



And while I'm providing you the video of the race, I must thank the Horse Racing Radio Network carried locally on WGR-550 AM Buffalo for saving my sanity yesterday by not denying me real time access to the event.

The Nomination Is In: The Preakness Stakes Grade I at Pimlico Racetrack

The Turk enjoys his work. For two weeks now I've been studying the past performances and video on today's contenders. It's a ritual I perform on almost all graded stakes races. The Turk likes to get a bit preachy about consistancy as a handicapper and I'm not wavering from that position. I saw lots of pictures after the Derby of people with the eight horse on win tickets. Great, enjoy your money, I wish I had one, but I didn't. Over the long haul, handicapping horses based on what the past performances reveal, what the morning work reveals, and what your eyes tell you when looking at past trips will bring you results. You have to have thick skin as a handicapper who publishes his picks as you don't get the luxury of recanting after the last hoof crosses the line. These Triple Crown races are hard races to predict, as the quality of the horses is top shelf and for the most part only intangibles seperate the best from the rest. If they weren't so darn complelling I'd only watch, but I'm OK with screwing up the winning results for days like today!

I do like my work. I can't tell you right now where the 3 YO Class of 2009 ranks compared to previous years. If I had to say now, I'd say mediocre. It's not a critism of the horses, more a reaction to so many good horses who fell off the Derby trail and the parity that was left behind. But then again, Mine That Bird pumped real interest into the proceedings and Rachel Alexandra has a chance today to blow the roof off of public interest. These are good things for horse racing, and horse racing can use some new fans.

Race 12 Pimlico: The Preakness Stakes Grade I; 1 3/16 miles on Maryland dirt for 3 YOs.



I'm working up my bet strategy right now, but I have a pool of horses, 8 out of the 13 starters, that I think could be in the top four. I'll narrow it down a bit and then start to fashion some logical exacta and trifecta bets. I like Musket Man and placed him in my top spot, but the reality is I might have put four different horses in the Win spot over the past two days. I'm going to listen to the handicapping rules I've learned the old fashioned way and work my handicap.

The Little Turk is feelin' General Quarters and Mrs. Turk digs Rachel Alexandra. This handicapper doesn't mind spending long hours only to lose to people who pick a number or name, I'm just glad to get to spend time around the animals I love.

Turk out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday May 9, 2009: The Peter Pan Stakes and Mervyn Leroy Handicap

Race 9 BEL: The Peter Pan Stakes Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on NYS Dirt for 3 YOs



I did some quick math before the race and didn't think the exatca bet was worth chasing, so no money was wagered. One of the things I do well as a horseplayer is knowing when a bet just isn't worth wagering. The result of this race were pretty much what the betting public thought it would be; The chalk took Win money and the second most wagered horse Placed. The exacta paid $17.00, but I would have spent at least $10 to work in some longer odd combinations, so my non-bet was a good bet.

Charitable Man ran a very professional race as the video shows. Of all the starters, Charitable Man showed the most promise for a start in the Belmont Stakes.



Race 8 HOL: The Mervyn Leroy Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on fake dirt for 3 YO and up.



You can be right and wrong in the same handicap. I felt strongly that Rail Trip would fall short. I did not like the way he faded in the Santana Mile and I was expecting a similar trip. It happened. I expected Dakota Phone to stay near Rail Trip but not have the gumption to pass him. It happened. I expected Aggie Engineer and Ball Four to set a blistering pace and then Ball Four showing age to drop to the back and Aggie Engineer to hold off any challengers. It happened, sorta.

I was curious what Trainer Biancone was thinking with Ball Four. Regardless of what you think of his past transgressions, the man prepared Ball Four well and nailed a nice Grade II win in the process. Aggie Engineer? He's only four, he'll have time to try again.

I placed $4 only in bets, following my handicap exactly. I had a 6-4-1 Tri and a 6-4 Exacta. They were low priced, reasoned and wrong. Handicapping can be like that.

The Nomination is In: May 9, 2009; The Mervyn Leroy Handicap Grade II at Hollywood Park

I'm not a big fan of six horse fields. The problem is sometimes horses that I really like race in small fields. Now I could just watch and not bet. That was my preconception before getting out the PPs for this race. I suspected that Dakota Phone would give Rail Trip another hard run and could win, especially with the extra distance and the 4 YOs propensity to close hard, but I thought Rail Trip, the heavy duty chalk, would win. Zzzzzzzzzz. Then I got interested. Aggie Engineer, a horse off my radar, a 4 YO with six career starts, no graded stakes, and the owner of a 6f bullet on May 1st and a 100 BSF at 1 Mile in early April caught my eye. To the sharp eyed or those with a magnifying lens, those two horses dueling at the wire are Rail Trip and a nose back Dakota Phone.

Race 8 HOL: The Mervyn Leroy Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 mile on fake dirt for 3 YO and Up.



I'm still not sold on the merits of betting this race. I'll be watching the tote closely and the key for me will be the odds that Aggie Engineer attracts and how much money chases Ball Four and Dakota Phone as well. Ball Four laid a clunker in early January and has been freshened since then. The 8 YO has the experience to come off the bench and be sharp, but I question his legs. I am curious what Trainer Biancone might coax from this proud animal, I hope its all good. The fine looking Jockey/Horse combo is A. Solis up on 2008 Mervyn Leroy Handicap winner Surf Cat.Oh yeah, A. Solis is up on Aggie Engineer.

The Nomination Is In: May 9, 2009: The Peter Pan Grade II at Belmont

The fine looking colt to the left is none other than the enigma of 2008, the Big Brown killer lying in wait at Belmont, 2008 Peter Pan Champion Casino Drive. As reported first at fellow Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance site Striding Thoroughbreds in Japan, Casino Drive recently suffered a severe bowed tendon. We wish Casino Drive a speedy recovery. Photo copyrighted to Vanessa Ng. For more insightful news, commentary and photography from the Japanese racing scene visit Striding Thoroughbreds or Keiba Kate's Racing in the Land of the Rising Sun.

Race 9 BEL: The Peter Pan Grade II; 1 1/8 on NYS Dirt for 3 YOs.



This is an interesting race, and one as a bettor I would walk away from. It's a seven horse field and if it gets any smaller I will surely look somewhere else in NY to give my money, like Albany State Government. I see very little difference in quality from top to bottom, and the morning lines reflect that with the lowest horse, Stately Character at 15-1 (Note: I don't like to look at Morning Lines before I handicap, but I was curious after I handicapped what others thought of this field).

I like Imperial Council to be in the Top Three. Charitable Man and Hello Broadway could turn this into a snoozer and the three likely suspects could fill out the ticket. That's not going to pay much so I'm looking contrarian and I'm going to fashion some tickets with Charitable Man or Hello Broadway faltering and then inserting one of the longer odd horses into the three spot. I like Scorewithcater especially if >8-1.

The Turk will be back later this afternoon to look at the Mervin Leroy at Hollywood which goes off at 7:30 ET. Rail Trip goes for his 6th straight win.

The Preakness is one week away. As a horse fan, these weeks around the Triple Crown are the most exciting of the year. As a handicapper, I'm a bit daunted by the task of 'capping the field that is shaping up for next week, especially with Borel and the Filly just sending everyone into a tizzy.

And the Belmont Stakes , the test of Champions, isn't that far off as well. I suggest anyone trying to keep up with news and opinions on the race read the blogs at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance as well as the blogs at the Belmont Stakes website. Teresa Genaro, Lisa Grimm, Andy Serling and Jenny Kellner lend their intelligence, knowledge and experiences with the Belmont to get this Turk excited about going already.

Turk out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 2, 2009: The 135th Kentucky Derby Grade I

The ol' Turk is a horse fan first and a bettor second. The bettor in me is disappointed because of the work I put into preparing for this race, months and months of work, and I could stare at the PPs for the next 10 years and I'd never figure Mine That Bird for anything other then middle to back of the pack. I have handicapped Mine That Bird twice before yesterday: The Breeder's Cup Juvenile and the Sunland Derby, where I wanted to see Kelly Leak run. I was intrigued at the Breeder's Cup only because the horse spent so much time at Woodbine, the nearest major track to the Turk, and that Dick Mandella was his trainer, albeit for a cup of coffee. I still don't see it, but that's why they run on dirt and not paper.

Mine That Bird won by 6 3/4 lengths, a greater margin of victory then mighty Barbaro. For more then 2 furlongs out Mine That Bird drove to the finish. He didn't win in a DQ, he didn't win by a nose, he won in decimating fashion. Was there a rail bias? Sure, but so what. Did pace make the race? Who cares, Mine That Bird made the race.

Yesterday, I placed Calvin Borel's picture on my blog. I choose Calvin because his ride on Street Sense was one of the most exciting trips I have ever seen. How he not only duplicated, but in many ways exceeded that effort, is amazing to me. It was hard not to love the emotion that spilled out of King Carl and Calvin two years ago, but again, a cowboy trainer, a jock who seemingly wasn't getting premier mounts, and owners that are everyday folks ruled the day.

The final two furlongs ran off at :25.17 and the final 3 furlongs clipped away at :40.57. The pace at the front once Join the Dance burned out tightened, as I think the big riders had sized up the competition and were prepared for a last few hops to the wire duel, which it was for Place. Mine That Bird had other ideas and thrilled the racing world in the process.

Race 11 CD: The Kentucky Derby Grade I: 1 1/4 miles of sloppy Ky dirt for 3 YOs.



In color I tried to show that my handicap had three zones; green, yellow and red. Mine That Bird blew up every ticket that I had fashioned, which will bring my inflated ROI back down to reality, which I knew had to happen eventually. All in all, my handicap wasn't bad, but this isn't horseshoes, it's horse racing. No crying over the PP. As I told someone today, I'd rather lose a bet and be thrilled by a horse that people can be excited by.



It's hard to believe the Preakness is 13 days away. The madness that must be descending on Team Mine That Bird must be overwhelming. Who goes from here, who joins this group, what type of betting situation sets up around a horse that before yesterday had a hard time getting a 80 BSF is what makes this game exciting. The race world gets a WHOLE lot more buzz by Mine That Bird winning then just about any other horse except General Quarters winning yesterday. Good Stuff. I am very happy for Trainer Woolley. He's obviously a proud man who does things his way. The Turk has an affinity for trainers like him, a man who channels Frank Whitely Jr. without even trying. I'm very happy as well for the owners who had a May foal and had so much early sucess with him as a two year old, and didn't quit on the horse. I'm unhappy that we don't have a national works clocking standard and horses like Mine That Bird are allowed to sit in NM, most likely working much faster then the midling numbers on the PP show. The team knew what they had. I thought the Peppers Pride story was isolated, but New Mexico has arrived.

The Little Turk made his first communion yesterday. He stuck with Musket Man all day long as was rewarded with a $12 Show bet.

The Nomination Is In: May 2, 2009: The 135th Kentucky Derby Grade I

There comes a time when you are in school that you just can't study anymore for a big test. I use to be impressed by the kids who didn't cram the night before; they worked hard all semester, knew the information, and got a good night of relaxing sleep.

After handicapping every major prep race on these 3 YOs since last October, I'm at a point where I'm past the need to study and I just have to finish the test, and a tough test it is. If this was the Backwater Derby, as a handicapper, I'd walk away. You have a 20 horse field running a distance not a single one of them has ever tried to run. It's the Kentucky Derby though, the biggest stage of the year for the sport I love, and while my bettors mind is telling me to walk away, hey it's the Derby. Let's have some fun, pick some horses, and see how we do. To fans of passion and good guys finishing first, that horse and jock pictured of course is the winner of the 133rd Kentucky Derby, Street Sense, with Mr. Calvin Bo-Rail up.

Race 11 Churchill Downs: The Kentucky Derby Grade I: 1 1/4 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



This one is a race you must watch the weather and the tote board on. There are only two wet dirt winners in this race, Friesen Fire and Desert Party. I'm giving the edge to the LA Derby winner, Friesen Fire. As much as I like Friesen Fire, the betting angle has to be about fashioning tickets out of your handicap and hoping for the best. I Want Revenge and Pioneerof The Nile will get some tickets with me on top, and then I have a 4 horse group (15, 12,7 and 19) that I will use to make up exactas and even a few stright Trifectas, and 10 cent Supers. I'm going keep doing the same things that have made me sucessful over the past few months; Work my handicap, establish my bet limit before I bet, fashion my tickets sans emotion, and pray.

Speaking of praying, Little Turk makes his First Communion today. The Turk is sacrificing his Derby Day rituals for the love of my favorite little handicapper. Little Turk likes two horses, I Want Revenge and Musket Man. . Mrs. Turk took longer then her usual 20 seconds to pick a horse, and she has chosen Hold Me Back.