Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 24, 2009: The Connaught Cup Grade III on Turf at WO

The Turk looked at the Connaught Cup at Woodbine as a chance to win some rather easy money. Perhaps that sounds arrogant? It should. Horse betting, unless you just like to give your money away, is about winning more money. If you're not good at it, you should give it up. If you want to get better, then keep working at it. Study your missteps, learn when to not bet, learn when to hedge your bets or when to let it ride straight. You won't win every bet. You might not win every six bets, but unless you like chalk and high risk, low reward bets, when you do strike gold, you'll hit it good.

I love handicapping. I'm not much of a bettor but I love to handicap. As I like to ramble on about, I'm cool with betting no more then $10 bucks or so on just a few races a week, and if I do well, I come out ahead. Am I retiring on that? Nope, but I'm also not laying out a big bank roll either, which Mrs. Turk would have a kitten over.

Which brings me back to the Connaught Cup. I would have liked at least two more starters to fatten the odds a bit, but I believed strongly after handicapping this race that Society's Chairman, Rahy's Attorney and Sterwins would be the top three. It wasn't rocket science, the bettors thought the same thing, voting the three into the top three spots on the tote board. I did hedge myself, a boxed $2 trifector bet that cost $12 dollars, as well as two straight Tri bets that hedged in two different third place finishers.

The payoff on a $2 Tri bet was $89.70. If I was more of a bettor I would have slammed down a $10 spot, but then that box costs $120, and while no matter how much money I bet I believe I will win, I'm just not into that kind of exposure week to week. I'll keep my day job and cash cigar, bourbon and past performance money.

Oh, and before I get nasty comments, I'm not an arrogant person, I'm an arrogant and introverted (non boasting, non animated, non vocally annoying) handicapper. It's part of my process; I have to believe that every bet I'm going to place has a likely chance of winning. I know the reality very well, which keeps me grounded and not destitute, but a little swagger to the game keeps me sharp.

Congratulations to Sterwins and his connections for setting a new course record of 1:38.99. The fractions were blazing and Rahy's Attorney wilted at the end.

Race 7 WO: The Connaught Cup Grade III; 1 1/16 mile on Ontario Turf for 4 YOs and Up.


I added video to the previous post on my post race analysis of The Arlington Classic.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 24, 2009; The Connaught Cup Grade III on Turf at Woodbine

Woodbine is the Turk's go to place in a jiffy for graded stakes action. Family obligations this holiday weekend prevent me from taking a trip north today, but that won't stop me from looking at this turf course race that features a Turk favorite, Rahy's Attorney, making his return to racing for the first time since last November.

Race 7 (post time 4:02 ET) WO: The Connaught Cup Grade III; 1 1/16 miles on Ontario Turf for 4 YOs and Up.



An interesting field to gage current form with. We have three horses coming off of >180 Day layoffs and three horses on a second trip after a layoff. What I think is the wild card is that some of the long layoff horses are top shelf thoroughbreds and should be good enough and experienced enough to go out and be workman like.

My early bet strategy will be several straight Triactor bets and I'll use my top 5 to build those tickets. I think the top of the finished order will be pretty chalky, so I'll limit myself to 10 bucks, no win or exactors, and we'll hope for a bit of chalk filled in with logical tote board party crashers. I'm giving the top slot to Society's Chairman but Rahy's Attorney is the best horse in this race and could/should win. The Tri tickets will be built around these two.



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Have fun. Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 23, 2009: The Arlington Classic $150K Turf

Race 11 AP: The Arlington Classic; 1 1/16 on Firm Turf for 3 YOs



A quick look at the Tote Board Ranking shows I built my handicap around the bettors fourth choice, a sweet spot in terms of value. Unfortunately the weather didn't cooperate and the turf remained firm and the horse did not cooperate, as Orthodox stumbled from the gate, got a bit rank, and was done.

Overall, not a bad handicap, as I predicted the chalk Golden Mexico (IRE) would not win and I had 4 of the top 5 horses which is usually enough for me to matrix bet and win, but No Inflation got in my way.

I was Superfecta hunting and had 4 boxed 10 cent Super's for $2.40 each. I knew with this field it would be a tough bet, but that's what makes it fun when you do win.

Turk Out!

Chicago Area Racing: Barn to Wire DOT com

For those out there looking for good Chicago area race track information, racing articles, and links including blogs, check out Chicago Barn to Wire. I'm not sure how long it's been around, but this Turk's been seeing Internet traffic coming in through there and after poking around, I liked it quite a bit.

It's a simple and easy to navigate site which works for me very well. And speaking of newly renovated and easy to navigate sites, check out the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance homepage.

That fantastic picture of the Chicago skyline is by Phil Velasquez copyright Chicago Tribune.

Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: May 23, 2009; The Arlington Classic (Turf) $150,000

The Turk loves Turf races at Arlington Park. To me it feels like summer. This year I vowed to spend more time paying attention to the turf course leading up the the premier event at Arlington, The Arlington Millions. As many of you, that fine looking colt above, Spirit One, shocked me senseless last year. I plan on looking closely each week at Arlington and we'll see if we can't get better picking these turf races. For my first handicap of 2009 at Arlington I chose The Arlington Classic $150,000 stakes today.

Race 11 (6:59 ET Post) Arlington Park; The Arlington Classic; 1 1/16 miles on Turf for 3 YOs.



The track handicapper installed Giant Oak and Golden Mexico (IRE) as the ML favorites. I don't think he did a bad job, but we aren't looking for safe chalk are we? I'm going to go straight Tri and 10 cent superfecta hunting today. It will be challenging because I think the overall field is very good and I had no throwouts. I'm looking at Orthodox and Southern Anthem as two horses that could upset the apple cart. El Crespo may be back on the surface he really enjoys. The forcast is calling for sporatic rain and there will be several other turf races before this, so course condition may play a factor.

Build your handicap, set a betting limit, and go hunt for value. Good stuff indeed.

The Turk is looking at Hollywood Park later today as well, the Grade II Milady Handicap featuring a titanic battle of Zenyatta and Life is Sweet. The money these two draw will be heavy and some good horse in that field will go off at 15-1. That should make any handicapper drool.

Have fun, Turk out!

Memorial Day Weekend Races of Interest

If you're like me, these Triple Crown races get me wound up as the end all/be all and sometimes I go into a lull between them. Chicken Soup for this horseplayers soul is a nice selection of Memorial Day weekend races. While I'm a horse fan first, I'm also a handicapper. Holiday weekends when the casual race fan who won Show bet money on Rachel Alexandra the weekend before gets brave and starts plunking down real cash on beatable chalk creates a great betting situation. Cherry pick from this list, enjoy the racing, but go after a score as well.

The neat picture above can be purchased from ALLPOSTERS.com and was originally published in Life Magazine, 1958.

Turk Out!



May 23

• Arlington Park: American 1000 Guineas, $200,000, 3yo f, 8f T
  
• Arlington Park: Arlington Classic, $150,000, 3yo, 8.5f T
  
• Arlington Park: Arlington Matron S. (G3), $150,000, 3&up f&m, 9f
  
• Arlington Park: Hanshin Cup S. (G3), $100,000, 3&up, 8f
  
• Belmont Park: Sheepshead Bay H. (G2), $150,000, 3&up f&m,, 11f T
  
• Churchill Downs: Louisville H. (G3), $100,000, 3&up, 12f T
  
• Hollywood Park: Milady H. (G2), $150,000, 3&up f&m, 8.5f
  
• Philadelphia Park: My Juliet S., $250,000, 3&up f&m, 6f
  
• Woodbine: Lady Angela S., $125,000, 3yo f, 7f

 

May 24

• Belmont Park: Vagrancy H. (G2), $150,000, 3&up f&m, 6.5f
  
• Hollywood Park: Lazaro S. Barrera Memorial S. (G3), $100,000, 3yo, 7f
  
• Woodbine: Connaught Cup S. (G3), $150,000, 4&up, 8.5f T

 

May 25

• Belmont Park: Shadwell Metropolitan H. (G1), $600,000, 3&up, 8f
  
• Calder Race Course: Memorial Day H. (G3), $100,000, 3&up, 8.5f
  
• Churchill Downs: Winning Colors S. (G3), $100,000, 3&up f&m, 6f
  
• Golden Gate Fields: Berkeley H. (G3), $150,000, 4&up, 8.5f
  
• Hollywood Park: Shoemaker Breeders' Cup Mile S. (G1), $250,000, 3&up, 8f T
  
• Lone Star Park: Lone Star Park H. (G3), $400,000, 3&up, 8.5f
  
• Lone Star Park: Dallas Turf Cup H. (G3), $200,000, 3&up, 9f T
  
• Lone Star Park: Ouija Board Distaff H. (G3), $200,000, 3&up f&m, 8f T
  
• Lone Star Park: Cinemine S., $100,000, 3yo f, 7f
  
• Lone Star Park: USA Stakes, $100,000, 3yo, 8.5f T
  
• Lone Star Park: Valid Expectations S., $100,000, 3&up f&m, 6f

 

 

Lost in the....Vodka

Lost in the largeness of the Preakness luster was the stunning victory by the filly Vodka in Tokyo. Vodka romped to a seven length victory in The Victoria Mile Grade I. The defending Japanese Horse of the Year won with Yutaka Take up amongst a field of 18. Vodka powered her way to the mile win 1:32.40.

Like many others, I bet and lost twice with Vodka at Nad Al Sheba, but I'm going to have to give her a mulligan for her efforts in the desert. Her next trip is the Grade 1 Yasuda Kinen Mile against colts in Tokyo on June 7.