The Nomination Is In: May 31, 2010; The Belmont Park Pick Three including the Met Mile

That fine looking horse in the Sarah K. Andrew photograph is Quality Road, the best Dirt horse training in the world right now. The Met Mile is one of those races that just screams "start of summer" and a nice collection of runners will make sure that Quality Road has to have an honest effort to win today. The Met Mile anchors a Pick Three that includes a tough MSW Turf affair and a 3 YO Filly Grade II on turf, The Sand Point, no walk in the park, but hey, that's why we do this. Visit Sarah's website, Rockers and Racehorses to witness an artist on top of her game and support and patronize her if you are so inclined. OK, let's get after it!

Belmont Park Race 9 - 10 - 11 Pick Three. First Post 5:16 Eastern.



Track conditions do not appear to be a problem at all, with fast dirt and firm turf. Keep your eye out for scratches and changes and look at the weather just in case.

in the first leg, the Grade II Sand Point, Trainer Terranova places blinkers on Negligee and tries to crank her back into graded stakes condition. The filly is looking for her first turf win. The Trainer/Jock combo of Terranova and J. Velazquez clip along at 27% at Belmont and Terranova himself is at 35% at the track.

Strike it Rich is a Clement runner coming in off an N1X 1 mile firm turf affair at GP in late April. The 3 YO daughter of Unbridled's Song will go off at a good price and I like her chances. It is gambling after all.

Hit it Rich, with Kent Desormeaux up, looks at sod for the first time, something Trainer McGaughey gets 14% of the time but understands 100% of all things equine. A classy Smart Strike daughter for owner Stuart Janney III. A nice late turn of foot in past two efforts will translate well.

Check the Label, with 27% winner R. Dominguez up for the first time, is on a turf roll and is 5 of 7 in the money on turf and holds the race best BSF of 92 on grass.

It's a nice collection of runners and I'm hedging with all four of my top runners in the Pick Three and I'll be looking at the top five for Super and Tri bets.

In the Met Mile I only see Quality Road losing if he's rank or doesn't go in the gate, a problem that is hopefully behind him. That said, there are some very good horses in this race at one turn and I think the big guy is better at two turns, or at least dominant in the two turn races. He'll be carrying the race heavy 124 pounds as well and going off less then even money.

As a bit of a stretch, I like Le Gran Cru just outside of Quality Road. The 5 YO Dynaformer horse comes in off a Grade III win at 1 Mile at Belmont and has been training strong for Trainer A. Jerkens. A big price and I'm hoping he can hit the top four.

If I'm looking for upset winners, I'm looking at Musket Man who has six fast dirt wins and 9 of 9 in the money on fast dirt. A :58 4/5ths 5f work signals the Yonaguska son is ready to roll.

Tizway, Convocation and Warrior's Reward will make this an honest pace and win and Kensei and You and I Forever aren't slouches either. I'm surprised how many wish to challenge Quality Road, but if he falters, some nice prices will hit the board. I'm not sure what type of inner race exotic I'll play, maybe none here because I think the pace will crack some runners and a blanket will form after Quality Road. Ahh, it's gambling, perhaps a Super just for fun!

The last leg of of the Pick Three is a Maiden Special Weight 36K at 6 furlongs on turf for Fillies and Mares foaled in NYS. Ugh! I'm going to back four horses and not worry about this one too much: Rennina/2, Lisa Jean/3, Eager Leader/5 and Triple Latte/7 seem to me to be the class here and Moonwalk Beauty/9 and Hennessy Light/12 are probables I'm going to not cover and hopefully not regret.

Happy Memorial Day to my friends, family, readers and fellow veterans. Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 22, 2010: The Pick Three at Arlington Park including the American Guineas & Arlington Classic

It does make me feel like summer when I start handicapping turf races from Arlington Park. I love the paddock and I love the way the turf plays, even if I'm not great playing it. As for the main track, eh, fake dirt doesn't thrill me and with Belmont and then Saratoga open at the same time, I'd rather play those dirt surfaces then the main track at Arlington, but I love the turf! This panoramic paddock picture is from Cindy Pierson and Terence Dulay.

As for the betting, I won the Pick Three on a $2 bet that cost $24 to construct and my second choice once all three races. I had some value built into my bet but the chalk or almost chalk won all three. As for my Superfectas, close but no cigar. Let's go!

Arlington Park Pick Three May 22, 2010: Race 8- Race 9- Race 10 (hyperlinked to race charts)



It was a tale of losing two superfectas by a head and a 1/2 length. Orchestrator nipping Chantilly Nayla cost me in the American Guineas. In the Arlington Classic, Mister Marti Gras 1/2 length finish over Our Champion cost me the superfecta there. I kept the bets reasonable and it was a bit of a wash today:



Life is Grand. Have Fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: May 22, 2010: The Arlington Park Pick Three including the American Guineas and Arlington Classic

The Turk loves the Arlington Turf Course. It doesn't mean he plays it well, but as a horse racing fan, I love the course and the track itself. I've had an affinity for Arlington since I was a young man in the US Navy. I was living close to Arlington in 1985 when a small fire turned into a big fire and devastated the place. Arlington wasn't on my radar of understanding at that point but since then it never left. I vacationed there last summer and enjoyed myself very much and I'll be in paddock smoking a cigar and picking ponies on Sunday June 13. With that said, it's time I jumped in and played some races. My handicap is based on a weather forecast that shows the rain stopping last night and the races staying on the grass. If Race 8 is off the turf, I'll drop the Pick Three and just bet Race 9 and 10. Let's get it on!


Arlington Park Pick Three Race 8 - Race 9 - Race 10 (Google Doc Spreadsheet inserted)



Race 8, a $35,000 claimer isn't that compelling but it does seem clear that four of the horses are superior on paper, and I'm backing Maneke, with 8 turf wins, 2 at Arlington, to win the race, and if he falters Live from Appollo, Trying Brian and Hapman should be there.

Race 9 and 10 I'm going to play per my base handicaps unless there are major defections or the races come off turf. I'll be looking at 10 cent Supers with six horse combinations and keeping the best below $24. Keep your eye on Track Conditions and Scratches.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 15, 2010; The Grade II Dixie and Grade I Preakness Stakes; Race 11/12 Daily Double

I love to remember Champions in their radiant glory and none to me are more glorious then Barbaro walking into Pimlico a day before his tragic final race. I try not to think about the big fella and what could have been but I found myself today with that horrible feeling from 2006 when I handicapped the Grade II Dixie as part of the Daily Double with The Preakness Stakes and came to the running lines for Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother. I've not handicapped any of Barbaro's brothers yet and I had to stop after reading his PP and just reflect back on how great the son of Dynaformer was. Let's not forget any of our runners, be it Barbaro or the cheapest claimer, and if you find The Turk enjoyable to read, please donate to a horse charity, one like Remember Me Rescue, with their easy to use widget on the right side of my blog. Thanks to Terence Dulay for the use of mighty Barbaro's picture. Let's get after it!

Pimlico Race 11 and Race 12: The Grade II Dixie and the Grade I Preakness Stakes



The Grade II Dixie goes to post at 5:12 Eastern, a full hour before the Preakness, so get your bets in.

The weather appears to be fine, the turf appears firm and there was only one scratch at the time of this writing, but get your information ready before finalizing your handicap.

Trainer Sheppard brings Just As Well in for his second off a long layoff, something the trainer does well with just 11% of the time. The 7YO does a Turf from Synthetic switch which Sheppard wins 22% of the time with. The trainer's graded stakes win rate of 27% and his 24% win rate with Leparoux, coupled with the Just As Well's 10 of 16 in the money on turf and 13 of 22 lifetime in the money makes him formidable. Don't like as a win bet with a suspected low price but will be part of my superfecta and trifectas.

5 YO gelding Picou comes in off the race of his career, a 103 BSF win at 1 1/8 on firm turf in early April. Trainer Brown puts E. Trujillo up, and the two combine for 44% wins on 16 starts and Brown clips away at 21% on turf and 33% in graded stakes. Expect a late turn of foot.

Rahystarda has been on my radar since beating Turk favorite Rahy's Attorney in the Grade III River City Handicap last year. 9 wins on 21 turf starts and 2 wins at the distance.

The group of Nicanor, Wesley and Grassy will round out my Show and 4th spots on the exotics.

In the main event, I like the middle of the starting gate to all show for themselves well. I'm tepidly backing Jackson Bend for his guts, Looking at Lucky for his pure natural potential and Super Saver for the respect the Derby winner deserves.

The second tier to me includes Dublin, Paddy O' Prado and Caracortado.

I like Jackson Bend on fast dirt where he is a perfect 9 for 9 in the money. A 4 furlong :46 3/5ths bullet earlier this week is a big fat wow. Hall of Fame Jock Mike Smith gets the mount for the second time.

2 YO champ Looking at Lucky has had some bad trips and gets Martin Garcia up today for Trainer Baffert. His best race of the year was on fast dirt and if Garcia can wait on him a bit he should be right there.

Super Saver ran an impressive 98 BSF and lost by a neck in Arkansas Derby. Nothing to dislike about the Kentucky Derby winner except the price. He'll be apart of all tickets.

I like the hard knockin' Dublin to find the exotic ticket. Making his 5th start of 2010 and his 8th dirt start.

Have fun with these. The Turk is about to get his "preak on" with a Camacho Room 101, his current stick of choice.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Days April 30 and May 1: The Kentucky Oaks - Turf Classic- Kentucky Derby Pick Three

Readers of the Turk have heard me prattle on before about base handicaps and bet constructions, and it's weekends like this one that continuously reaffirm to me the basic principles of handicapping are alive and well and relatively unchanged since I first read Tom Ainslie during one long trip at sea in the mid 1980's. Any multibet race starts with the first leg: Nothing is more of a downer then losing the opening race of the centerpiece of a many hour handicap, so with that in mind, I thank that lovely lady Blind Luck , pictured, for rescuing my winning Kentucky Oaks - Turf Classic - Kentucky Derby Pick Three bet from ruination. Thanks as well to The Saturday Post, also a member of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, for the best picture I found of this special filly. Let's get after it!

CD Race 11 April 30, 2010: The Kentucky Oaks Grade I- CD Race 10 1 May, 2010: The Turf Classic Grade I - CD Race 11 1 May 2010: The Kentucky Derby Grade I.



As far as the Pick Three Bet construction, I saw The Kentucky Oaks as a two horse race and my first gamble of the weekend was slicing my options down to just Blind Luck and Amen Hallelujah. That worked out but my inner race Superfecta bet fell apart. I had Evening Jewel and Tidal Pool pegged into the Show and 4th spot but completely missed on Beautician and that was all she wrote, but, I was alive. Looking back in the PP's, I still don't see Beautician finishing here, but Amen Hallelujah dropped like a stone the last few hops and opened the door. Another principal of my handicapping is avoiding pre race hype and after I built my bet and I started to do some reading I was surprised by how hyped Crisp and It's Tea Time were. I didn't see it and I discounted them.

The biggest wild card in this Pick Three for me was the Turf Classic. The weather forecasts on Friday were all over the board from Biblical to just bad. My pre race analysis took into account two different scenarios: On turf and taking off turf. I thought the bigger wildcard would be the scratches that came from that. For building a Pick Three win selection I took both my scenario handicaps and I realized I only had one horse in my top five on both turf and dirt, Court Vision. The rest of my possibles were a hybrid of both base handicaps with a premium on horses I thought would run regardless of the surface and also who may provide some big prices on what otherwise would be a chalky pick three. I inserted Court Vision and Battle of Hastings from my on turf scenario and General Quarters, Wise River and Al Khali from my off turf scenario. We are gambling right? We take chances right? We also get VERY LUCKY sometimes. I did not like General Quarters in this spot on the turf and was only in my Pick Three because of his dirt abilities, and even then, he was lousy on the slop in the Kentucky Derby last year. I love General Quarters but I don't bet my favorites, I try to bet who I think is going to actually win. I am enjoying being wrong this morning and still being right. We'll take it and I was still alive. And now the big event!

I didn't have any deep belief on which runner would win this race after Sidney's Candy drew 20 and Looking at Lucky drew 1. I don't think either colt is "special" enough to overcome bad draws, heavy traffic and lots of thrown mud after being conditioned to not have that with the fake dirt. I tossed the filly Devil May Care as well as nothing more then an owner wanting something that the horse couldn't do. I liked my base handicap quite a bit in terms of layers of horses as tosses, possible exotics and probable winners. The slop added a wild card and after spending a few days watching morning work (it seemed to be in favor to bash morning works this week as not important-I disagree). I backed gingerly Conveyance to win. I'm convinced he's a top flight sprinter and from post 12 I knew he would take the lead, but I was hopeful M. Garcia would rate him and put up mildly slow fractions and give him the speed at the top of the stretch. It was my thought but :22 3/5ths and :46 cooked both him and Sidney's Candy.

The Turk Clan was over the house and the place was buzzing by 5:45. With one last look at the tote board I took my base handicap top five and boxed them for the trifecta. I also threw $10 down on Conveyance, Nobles Promise and Stately Victor to win, all big prices with a chance. My base handicap was pretty darn good and I took down $2,237 with the long prices of Paddy O'Prado and Ice Box bumping up the score. I almost bet the superfecta which returned a whopping $202,569 but I would have never hit it with Make Music for Me unless I bet a ton, not my bag baby!

Congratulations to Todd Pletcher and Calvin Borel. I saw some great cell phone pictures on Facebook yesterday (thanks to Paula W) of Todd watching the race in a small office sitting in a dingy green office chair with his expensive suit and the boots that belied the fact that at his heart, he's a horseman who suffered for years the ridicule of people who said he couldn't win the big one. Pretty ludicrous considering how few actually make it every year. Here's hoping for a Triple Crown.

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Oaks-Turf Classic-Kentucky Derby Pick Three

So I had it all planned out. This Turk's been happily wearing his Mine That Bird hat since last Father's Day (Thanks Mrs. Turk)and after the Wood Memorial I went to horsehats.com and got myself a sporty Eskendereya hat. Hopefully I'll be proud to wear that hat later this summer.

I try to enjoy Oaks/Derby Day as a fan more then a horse player. These are big fields, the best of the best, and when you factor in new distances, heavy rains, the handicapping trends towards hope-capping instead of intelli-capping. All that said, I'm busting out a few bucks from the YouBet account and I'm going to have some fun with a multi day, multi race bet, The Oaks/Turf Classic/Kentucky Derby Pick Three and the Oaks/Derby Double.

Because of the multi day event, I've had to handicap tomorrows races with the expectation that the rains could be very heavy. I've handicapped the Kentucky Derby with the expectation that the track will be very sloppy and I've handicapped the Turf Classic on and off turf. The BIG wildcard will be scratches. We can't worry it. I'll be back tomorrow to handicap Pick Threes and Pick Fours and assemble some inner race betting and we'll assess then. Let's Let it Ride!

The Oaks/Turf Classic/Kentucky Derby Pick Three (spreadsheet attached)



I'll be betting as I laid out for the Oaks as well as the Pick Three. I'm also going to bet the Oaks/Derby Double and eliminate the wildcard of the Turf Classic.

Have fun with it, more soon. Turk Out!

The Kentucky Derby: A Guest Handicap by Cathy (the Canadian Turk) and The Wire Players Dirty Dozen Poll Final Edition

Life is amazing. I find the symmetry to life to be the most amazing thing. If you live long enough you'll find people enter your life, leave your life, and reenter again when you never expect it. Case in point is today's guest handicapping blogger at The Turk and the Little Turk, Cathy, the Canadian Turk.

I went to high school where I met my wife. My wife has had a friend from second grade on who I also went to high school with. We all traveled in different social circles: My wife was an upstanding citizen, I was an underachieving vodka drinker, and Cathy was a hippy chick, think Stevie Nicks. What Cathy also was at a very young age was a huge Horse Racing fan with a crush on Steve Cauthen and Affirmed. Cathy went on to become a fantastic journalist with a unique voice.

Last year, Cathy's family joined The Turk's clan for a great day at the races at Arlington Race Track. Since then I've been lobbying for her to share her fantastic insights and handicapping acumen to The Turk. We are honored today that she has accepted and without further blathering from me, I present to you Cathy.

TRYING FOR THE TRI: LUCK HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH IT

By the evening of April 3, I had the 2010 Kentucky Derby all figured out. As Eskendereya waltzed all over his Wood Memorial “competition,” I knew it was my year to get revenge for 2009. After last year’s Wood, I also had things all figured out. It was I Want Revenge, then Pioneerofthenile, then everybody else. This year, I was convinced all I needed to do was put a couple longshots under Eskendereya in a trifecta, and I’d be laughing all the way to the windows.

But, déjà vu, the Derby gods decided to again smack down my smugness a week before the race, leaving me scrambling. It’s not pretty to walk around carrying PP’s everywhere you go, tell your son he can’t do homework on his laptop because you need to read handicapping blogs while you watch TVG or tell your kids to fill you in later about school so you can hear Steve Byk’s radio show in the car.

It’s been a lot of last-minute work, but by George, I think I’ve got it. (Of course, I think that every year and am usually wrong, but that’s another story.) There’s money to be made, usually lots, by winning the trifecta, so that’s where I concentrated my efforts.

First things first. The Derby is the biggest field you’ll ever handicap, and I usually begin by throwing horses out. I always start with the ones that have no business in the race (Full disclosure: I did put Mine That Bird on this list last year, but so did most people). So, bye-bye Homeboykris, Backtalk, Dean’s Kitten and Make Music for Me.

Next, I threw out all the synthetic/turf specialists – except for Sidney’s Candy – due to their dismal Derby showings in the past. Because of the unusual amount of speed in the race, I made the decision to throw out all front-runners – again except for Sidney – because I truly believe they will burn each other out.

That left me with a much smaller group to seriously handicap and the more I study, the more I’m Looking at Lucky. He is my top pick and having Baffert in your corner is a bonus.

However, things can and often do go wrong in the Derby, so I need to cover my bases and my posterior. So, the strategy is to put my top three horses on the top and middle of the tri, then add a handful of longshots on the bottom. The 3-3-8 bet I devised on a $1 tri will cost $36, but if it comes in ….sorry, but I know not to get smug again.

Here’s who I picked and why:
THE TOP THREE (Will bet in 1-2-3 slots in my trifecta )

LOOKIN AT LUCKY: He has never run a bad race, ran well in his only dirt start and has been knocked around enough that he won’t freak out when things start getting bumpy in the Derby. His rail post doesn’t scare me – he became fairly familiar with the rail in the Santa Anita Derby and never gave up. These are the qualities you want to see in a Derby contender.

SIDNEY’S CANDY: I was ready to throw him out, but just can’t. He will either win or be completely out of the picture when they cross the wire. Not wanting to look like a fool on May 2 (I know how that feels and I don’t like it), I will add him, although I believe he will not be the same on dirt.

NOBLE’S PROMISE: Throw out his Arkansas Derby and you have a horse who’s never run out of the money and finished barely behind Lucky in his last two starts. If he improves, even slightly, he’ll be there at the end. And his odds should be sweet.

THE REST OF THE BEST (All in the 3 slot)

ICE BOX: Nick Zito, and the fact that the Derby gods love a good comeback story.

DUBLIN: D. Wayne Lukas, and the fact that the Derby gods love a good comeback story.

AWESOME ACT: Lots of excuses in the Wood, and a better wiseguy pick than Mission Impazible

SUPER SAVER: Calvin Borel, plus ran well on a wet track and should be able to rate

JACKSON BEND: Chased Eskendereya, but could get a slice here. Did I mention Zito?

Noticeable in their absence are Devil May Care, who I just don’t think is as good a filly as others who’ve done well in the Triple Crown, and Mission Impazible, who seems to be the big wiseguy horse, meaning his odds will be too low. I may also throw $5 across the board on Noble’s Promise if the odds are right. And, just to be safe, I’ll lay the PP sheets on the couch, see whose name the dog sits on first and put a few dollars on that runner.

Best of luck to the one and only Rachel Alexandra and Happy Derby Day 2010 everyone!

Thanks Cathy! The Turk will be adding his Oaks/Derby Double Handicap as well as the Pick Three on Derby Day as well tomorrow.

And for followers of The Wire Players Derby Dozen, the final poll has been released. This was a really fun and collaborative effort led by Steve at Wire Players and I want to thank him for inviting Ye'Ol Turk to participate.



Have fun with the Derby and Oaks. Don't take these one's too seriously, they are meant to be treasured and remembered. Turk Out!