Derby Dozen Poll Results and Current Derby Point Leaders

I love horse racing; I love the mental challenge of handicapping, I love the thrill of the wager. I love the highs, and the lows, while humbling, keep me grounded. I like to believe handicapping skills, acquired over many years of enduring the highs and lows, take the proposition of winning to slightly better than a thrown dart. There are days when I can't lose and then there are weeks where I can't win. Sometimes its best to stand back and listen to others give their views on the runners. Longtime readers of The Turk know I eschew outside bias, but this is different. I find it really instructive to listen to others when it comes to Derby Contenders and the group I find myself a member of, offers great insight with cutting commentary.

The Wire Players Derby Dozen have voted on this year's Derby Contenders for the second time and the list is interesting: Ive Struck a Nerve, while the point leader after the first weekend of the Championship Series, doesn't crack the top 12. While not a surprise off of his incredible long shot victory in the Risen Star, points are points and as each week goes by, it will be harder to back chic, lightly raced runners. For the record, The Turk has Super Ninety Nine on top right now.









The Gotham is up today. Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Fountain of Youth and The Kentucky Derby Point Race Update

The Kentucky Derby Prep Season is over and today begins the Kentucky Derby Championship Series.

My criticism of the current system is that the prep season rewards are too meager, with the leaders after 19 races accumulating only 24 points while today the winners of the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Risen Star Stakes will each receive 50 points and the Place Horse will receive 20. What it does do it motivate the winners of the big 2 YO races to start running sooner, in February, and maybe, just maybe, it adds one additional start before the Derby for some of these runners, and 2 additional starts for fringe horses in the field.

I like the concept, I just think it will need tweaking. I would like there to be real motivation for trainers to run the horses more often and one tweak I'd suggest is a veto on gate draw for the Derby: If you collect X number of points and you started Y number of races during the Prep and Championship Series, a Trainer should be able to Veto Gate Position 1 or 20, or some variation of this, to improve his odds further and reward him for running. Maybe I'm missing something, but how does Winning Colors make history in this arrangement, how does Eight Belles get her chance? Maybe this closes the door on fillies, as while a filly does draw interest, a dead filly does not. I'm also not down with the suits at CDI deciding which races are in the circle of trust and which ones are not. I'm OK with most of the races they selected, but there should be some slots that rotate every year. I dunno, I'm the Turk, a hack handicapper and not one of the deep thinkers of the sport in general. For real talented voices in horse racing, I strongly urge you to read some of the top writers at Turf or Hello Race Fans!






This weekend we have the first two Championship Series Races. Most horses have two starts left before the Kentucky Derby. In the 1st Leg of the Championship Series, there are 95 points for the taking in a start, with the Show Horse gathering 10 points. In the Second Leg of the Series which begins about 5 weeks from now with The Florida Derby, there are 170 points available in a start, with Place gathering 40 and Show getting 20. A Show finish in one of the Big Races (Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes) and as few as 4 points or a Place in the Prep Season races, and I think you are safely in the Top 20. Let's assume the top ten in the list keep hitting the board, from Shanghai Bobby to Super Ninety Nine, then valuable scraps will be left over for between 14 and 25 other horses to fight for.

I've handicapped The Fountain of Youth Stakes and will be watching the Risen Star today as well. As a fan who doesn't care much about 2 YO's, by following the Prep Race Season, I feel like I am more in tune with this year's key 3 YOs, so in this way the Race Series and Points Method has enhanced my interest.

Let's get after this!



I think Violence (pictured above) is good. I respect the field that he defeated in the Hollywood Park Cash Call Futurity G1 but I don't know that he is 9-5 good until I see it again. I'm going to bet against him and my base handicap supports this by favoring Cerro (Ire), a typical Team Valor International runner; improving Beyers, a cutback of a 1/16 off his last race win at GP. His pilot, Castellano, jumps off for Violence, and that gives journeyman Rocco a chance.

I have Violence in the Place spot but he's talented enough to Win, and a wildcard enough to finish out of the money. I dunno and that's why its called gambling. I'm playing the odds, perhaps against my gut, and I'll cover him in the Top 4 in all spots.

My next five are a jumble and I think very little separates them. Falling Sky and He's Had Enough seem to be the best of the bunch but they have to show it.

Today's a good race day and I'll be back tomorrow to update the standings and talk about implications.

Enjoy! Turk Out.

The Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll Volume 1 PLUS The Derby Point Standings and Prep Race Results

We are back. I'm not sure what the popular demand is, but Steve and the team at Wire Players have reassembled a collection of experts from the horse racing world to provide insight into the three year old crop as the chase for a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby heats up. Why they want the Turk's involvement, folly possibly, but I'm glad to be a part of the crew again.

People who read the Turk know how I ignore two year old racing almost completely. That's not driven by some moral objection to these youngsters running, its just not my bag. I like to see 10 races on a past performance, I like to see the handicap division runners with 20 starts, I like the data that the older horses provides as a handicapper. As a race fan, I like to fall in love with horses and follow them. That generally doesn't start until the Kentucky Derby for 3 year olds because I just don't get that misty eyed about young runners until they do it a few times.

I've warmed up to the changes implemented this year regarding the point system and the rules regarding entry into the Derby. If you haven't followed it closely, you can get caught up on how the system works here.

It's early: the system is geared heavily towards what would be the second, third and fourth starts of the year for most of these three year olds. The nomination group for Triple Crown Races 369 horses, down from 450 in 2007. It's never about quantity, American Racing needs a quality injection, and with youth we have hope.

Anyway, things are about to heat up. I say that as a massive storm barrels up the Eastern seaboard and coats Turk Central in a thick coating of snow. May will come, May will come.

Turk Out!

The Nomination is In: The Donn Handicap Grade 1 at Gulfstream Park

Welcome friends and readers of The Turk and Little Turk, and a special welcome to the readers of the Thorofan Handicappers Corner. I'd like to thank the Thorofan for the work that they do promoting the fans of horse racing and creating a community of horse racing fans throughout the United States.

I look forward to the Donn Handicap every year, the first big older horse division two turn racing. Good stuff for the horse racing fan inside me but a jagged reef for most handicappers. This early in the season you have a mixed bag of horses at different points in their cycle: Some are coming back from the farm, some raced continuously since the Fall, some are on their second runs off a long break. Trainers have targeted objectives for these horses and their objective may not be winning Grade 1 races in early February. All of these factors to me makes for incredible variability, good payouts, and a chance for frustration or glory. The Turk, a proponent of exotic betting, likes to keep it a bit simple when there are this many moving pieces, and quite honestly, not investing my hard earned capital on crapshoots is often the best course of action. It would be a pretty boring and unfulfilling handicap if I pulled the chicken switch, so we will put our best handicap forward and push up to the punters window with some cash.

Let's get it on!

2013 Donn Handicap Grade 1



There should be an interesting pace to this race, with a bunch of horses that might strike the front and try to stay there. With that much speed it may set up perfectly for a late breaker like the 8 year old, Pool Play: A $30,000 Silver Deputy has earned $1.2 Million through 20 of 34 lifetime money finishes. Another two who may break late and hit the wire or the ticket is Ultimate Eagle and Bourbon Courage. I'm leaning in a different direction, I'm going with the winner of the 2012 Florida Derby, Take Charge Indy.


2012 Florida Derby G1 Take Charge Indy wires the field




2012 Clark Handicap G1: A gutty Place for Take Charge Indy



Training sharply for Trainer Byrne, he's coming off a layoff that Byrne wins 20% of the time. Take Charge Indy is 3 of 3 in the money lifetime at the distance, 2 of 2 in the money at Gulfstream, and 6 of 9 lifetime in the money. His last race against a beast in Shackelford at the Clark was gutty. With Johnny V, up, he'll need to settle, relax and show something as a four year old he didn't show as a 3 Year old: Versatility.

The game winner of the Hal's Hope at Gulfstream is a logical win bet as well (I'd paste the video but some video troll at Gulfstream didn't allow for embedding)

2013 Hal's Hope G3 at Gulfstream

A 4 year old Kitten's Joy who has had good results at GP: 2 wins in 3 tries including a 103 BSF win in December.

Graydar is a very lightly raced Pletcher pupil, and he puts a steady hand in Edgar Prado up on him again as they look for their first stakes win.

So what do we do? I have a base handicap with the way I see the race unfolding. I think the speed may wear down and fade but I'm not betting the mortgage on this baby. I'll most likely box my top 4 for a Trifecta: That's a $48 dollar flier and horses that should all stay under 4 to 1. If you want to go safer, there will be a couple of horses under 8 to 1 like Bourbon Courage, Fast Falcon and Pool Play that could strike for Place. Build several bets with one horse keyed to Win and these two boxed to Place. For $18 dollars you can assemble an Exacta with Graydar, Csaba and Take Charge Indy to Win and drop Bourbon Courage, Ultimate Eagle and Pool Play in Place. I like it and I think I found my bet.

The key in playing the horses in my opinion is to do your homework, be prepared and not start handicapping after the last race goes final, have a plan and work your plan. I've been a horse player for most of my adult life, I watch the horses because I love these magnificent animals, but I handicap purely to relieve work stress and relax. Anyone can be break even if you take it seriously and do the work, and with practice you can scrape out a positive ROI. Bottom line though, have fun, it's a great sport.

I'm ignoring Flat Out at my own Peril.

Best of Luck, Turk Out!

Kentucky Derby Point Race Standings

Like it or not, the 20 spots in the starting gate for the 139th Kentucky Derby will not be based on graded stakes earnings as it has since 1986, but instead points earned in 36 races designated by a completely unbiased (cough) Churchill Downs Incorporated.

I'm on record as liking the concept; I like the idea of a roadmap towards the starting gate. I'm content with watching it happen this year and I think that some really interesting tweaks can be added to the system over the next several years if the men in grey flannel suits can get a bit outside the box. Right off the bat, one of my beefs has been a 2 YO wins a $1.0 Million dollar pot in one of racino races or the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the super genius trainers start to conjure up how little they can start their charge before the first Saturday in May. The next tweaks should reward the runners who take part in the most prep races with a weighted ball advantage at the starting gate draw.

Anyhow, before tomorrow's Smarty Jones we are 12 races into the chase, with 7 left in the Prep Season before we reach the more lucrative Championship Series.

It's realistic that a horse will win the Prep Season with as few as 34 points. The first leg of the Championship Series awards 50 points for a win and 20 for Place, which makes the value of the Prep Season fairly poor. The second leg of the Championship Series is worth 100 Points for the win and only 40 points for Place, so you could argue that current prep leaders Shanghai Bobby and Goldencents need only win one more race and they are cemented. I think some tweaks to the number of points per race may be justified as well.

We'll keep making suggestions and then summarize them after the Kentucky Derby is run.






My beloved Buffalo Sabres just kicked the snot out of the Flyers. All is right in the world again. Have fun race fans, Turk Out!

By the way, I have skipped all coverage of the Eclipse Awards on purpose: I think these sort of popularity contests are a joke and I'd rather see the awards based on points just like this. How Frankel can't be Horse of the Year, I'm still waiting for a sane answer on that. Joke, not to be taken seriously.

The Nomination Is In: The Lecomte at Fairgrounds: 10 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Race

I wasn't sure I was going to talk about Lance Armstrong today, but I think it's important to tell my story. In 1986 I became enamored with International Cycling and The Tour de France. I loved the drama of Greg LeMond, as well as the American 7/11 Cycling Team, taking on these dashing, eccentric and seemingly unbeatable Europeans, like the badger, Bernard Hinault, Thierry Marie, Laurent Fignon, and a youthful Pedro Delgado. It was an American coming of age story with Andy Hampsten, Davis Phinney and of course the eventual winner, LeMond. If blogging were around in 1986, I'd be blogging about the classic races, the Tour and the World Championships. Then, drugs ruined it for me. It wasn't overnight, but I didn't need to be a drug tester to realize the feats I was witnessing were chemically fabricated. The ability to attack constantly on the mountains, stage after stage, the ability to recover so quickly, the ability of middling riders to suddenly become superstars was disgusting to the sportsman in me and in response, I quit the sport cold, sometime after 2001, when Armstrong attacked my hero, Greg LeMond viciously, even forcing his bike sponsor Trek to shutdown their affiliation with LeMond. I am repulsed by what Armstrong did, not only to the sport, but to the people who dared challenge him. I thought less of him when he left the mother of his children, starting women hopping, and I never believed he cared much at all about the cancer patients he made so much money claiming to care about. It took his 13 year old son defending him to finally stir some sense of manhood in him and admit his lies and deceit.

I don't want this to happen to horse racing. I quit betting the local track in the 1990's when I heard rumors of rampant drug use and screwy results. I have faith that horse racing has drug use and cheats under control, but I don't really know for sure. If my faith gets shaken I may shift blogging back to cycling, where clean athletes seem to have retaken the sport again. Go away Lance Armstrong and please don't bother with your attempts at public reconciliation, I don't care.

The Kentucky Derby Prep Season continues today with the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fairgrounds. Let's get after it!



Charles Fipke, like fine diamonds, finds gems like Golden Soul. Comes in off a strong route race here in late December. I expect similar results today.

Elusive Quality son Avie's Quality, trained by Josie Carroll, with Rosie Napravnik up, will provide a serious challenge. The race's sole 90+ BSF rated and the money earnings leader, a first trip across dirt for this Woodbine snowbird.

Trainer Lukas brings in Oxbow, an Awesome Again son from Tizamazin, with J. Court, up. Well traveled so far, looking for him to assert himself at some point on dirt at two turns.

These prep races aren't my betting cup of tea in January, more like handicappers homework. No bets for me, but if I were I'd assemble a trifecta with my top 4 boxed.

Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 3 Sham Stakes (10 Point Derby Prep) at Santa Anita

Happy New Year from the Turk and his little buddy, the aptly named Little Turk.

New Year's always brings to me renewed purpose. As it relates to horse racing, I wipe away what I thought was a ho-hum race season and hope for better this year. This is always a time of discovery for me as well: I pay almost no attention to 2 YO racing and I like being introduced to the 400 or so horses that will be eventually nominated for the Triple Crown Races. The Turk however doesn't live under a rock and I know a few of the names, like the Delta Jackpot winner Goldencents running today in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes, but I really know nothing about this group of horses at all. Honestly, I think it helps me, as I don't really care what these horses did late summer and fall of 2012, I care about how they grew and where they are now in 2013. I used to get all caught up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and some of the other 2 YO races, and while stirring, that form doesn't always translate into the next season. It's a sort of visual bias I can live without.

I'm torn on how to feel about the new point system instituted to determine the 20 slots available in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby, which is 119 days away. On one hand I think it makes more sense to add weight and perspective to the road that Triple Crown nominees take, but then again, humans created it, and humans have flaws like picking certain races that are owned by certain racing conglomerates. So a six horse Grade 3 Sham field today gets 10 points, while a Grade 2 race with 8 horses at Aqueduct gets nothing. I don't know why they could not have had more races with points associated. This is considered the "Prep" season with races accounting for 10 points for wins. Races jump to 50 and 100 points in the next legs and while I think 150 would safely get you into the gate, I think the weighting of these prep races will pick up significant value for the fifteen through twenty horse and injustice will be felt at some point. I won't condemn the system yet and it's not like the graded stakes earnings system didn't need a few tweaks, I'm just thinking that instead of tweaking they sledge hammered it.

Anyhow, let's get after the Sham Stakes and see what we have going on. Speaking of Sham, forever linked to Secretariat, he's pictured above to the right of Big Red.



I'm betting against Goldencents for no particular reason. I like his 6f work at Santa Anita an awful lot and he did run a strong Champagne as well as the Delta Jackpot. At some point I think his class gets the better of him, but when, I dunno.

I'm putting Baffert's two entries one and two, with Den's Legacy over Manando. Den's Legacy closed well in the Futurity in December and has a smokin' :46 2/5ths bullet just before the new year. Gomez is up, a 24% at Great Race Place . Manando, with Garcia up, went :46 and 1/5th a week earlier and comes in off a dominant MSW 45K race at Hollywood. Baffert and Garcia clip along at 26% together at Santa Anita.

I like Dirty Swagg too, the sort of horse like Love Theway You Are that Trainer Cho does well with.

I must be getting old as an Any Given Saturday colt, Dry Summer enters the gate. No idea what to expect out of him on a first race back since Breeders' Cup Saturday, a layoff Trainer Mullins wins 24% of the time. He's switching surface as well back to dirt, something he didn't do well on at Santa Anita in late September.

Welcome back race fans. The Turk feels rejuvenated, time to make a stack of bills.

Have fun, Turk Out!