Wire Players Kentucky Derby Derby Poll Volume 5 and Video Recap of Key Races

Revolutionary winning The Withers

Friends, we are getting to about that time: With 23 days and 20 hours to go until The Kentucky Derby, we know just about everything we need to know about the runners from their body of work racing, sans the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes combatants, and now it comes down to pedigree analysis, workout tabs and manic clocker reports, and idiot bald bloggers, specifically yours truly, ye' Ol Turk, to wax poetic about the runners and to try and make sense of twenty or less horses running farther than they have ever run before. I'm not sure it gets any better than this!

It's been a few years since I have enjoyed the Derby Trail as much as I have enjoyed this one.  We've lost a few good runners to injury: Violence looked so impressive winning the Futurity at Hollywood, and we lost Shanghai Bobby, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion, who in the new system was forced to run and his form exposed. I think overall we've seen parity, what some may call mediocrity, but not I.  Too often in our society we call things brilliant.  We are quick to label things as great.  We should be more frugal with the term or it becomes watered down.  Those stooges at ESPN that follow the ball sports label something as special or brilliant every day: its thier business to hype things, but at the same time they do that, they dilute the previous things they labeled the same. None of these runners are brilliant, special, or amazing yet.  As one Stephen Patrick Morrissey once said, "...you just haven't earned it yet, baby."

Win the Kentucky Derby, then I'll consider you elite.  Win the Preakness and you will win horse of the year.  Win the Triple Crown, I'll call you brilliant.  I'll label you magnificent.  You'll be the next horse on my wall of fame. 

All that said, Revolutionary has impressed me.  I like the way he has handled traffic and shown a killer instinct.  Oxbow and Goldencents have impressed me for thier guts. Verrazano and Orb have answered the bell when needed.  I like Normandy Invasion with the extra route of dirt in front of him.  As usual, I have no clue who will win the Kentucky Derby, but I am starting to see the race unfold, the pace, and I'm feelin' the Super High Five, my favorite bet just calling my name. 

The Turk is headed to The Preakness this year.  I'm bullish on the rest of the racing season and I'm looking forward to following these horses the rest of the year.

Let's get it on!  I present to you the latest WirePlayers.com Derby Dozen Poll.  Thanks to Steve and the gang, it's a real pleasure working with this group. 




Santa Anita Derby: Goldencents



Wood Memorial: Verrazano



Louisiana Derby: Revolutionary



UAE Derby: Lines of Battle



Florida Derby: Orb



Sunland Derby: Governor Charlie



Spiral Stakes: Black Onyx



Rebel Stakes: Will Take Charge

The Nomination Is In: The 100th Edition of the Louisiana Derby

What a finish!  The Risen Star Stakes horse racing fans, run at the Fair Grounds in late February was one of the more thrilling finishes this Kentucky Derby prep season.  I've Struck a Nerve, the huge long shot winner is off the Derby trail with an injury, but many of his combatants, like Code West in the shocking pink and Palace Malice in the kelley green and yellow dots, along with Golden Soul, Proud Strike, and Mylute are back in Saturday's one hundredth running of the Louisiana Derby. 

I'd like to thank The Thorofan for the opportunity to handicap what should be a wide open race.  As a race fan, this is what you look forward to: 14 runners in a prep race, trying to punch their ticket for the Kentucky Derby.  As far as I'm concerned, the Kentucky Derby Points Entry System is a rousing success.  Sure it may need some tweaks, but there isn't a darling from the 2 YO season that isn't feeling pressure to run and get points.  How can that not be a good thing!

As a handicapper, I'll often skip races like this, or more accurately, I may not build too complicated a wager around a group of horses where just about anything can happen.  I like to have a feeling that I understand the variables: pace, track condition, class, trainer motivation, and I can't say I have many of those here, or do I.  Motivation is pretty simple: trainers aren't entered here to prep for The Derby Trials, they are prepping for a spot among the Top 20 in the Derby Starting Gate.  Weather:Fair Grounds isn't a track I pay often, and one reason is this time of the year it can be a swamp and I don't like the variable, but it looks dry and it should be fast.  Pace: Titletown Five will strike the front, Code West will push the pace, but there should be a real tight grouping at the top of the stretch and the extra distance will favor the horses that don't mind dirt in the face and traffic, conditions they are indeed prepping for.  The more I type, the more I like this race.  Let's handicap it and then figure out how to wager it.  That sound you hear is Little Turk mocking me "....do you feel lucky, punk?" 

Let's get it on!

The weather has been dry and looks like Saturday will be dry, but keep your eye on track maintenance before you finalize your wagers. 

A good place to start is always some video of the most current races of some of the key horses here.

Risen Star Stakes 23 Feb 2013 FG 1 1/16 Fast 



El Camino Real Derby 16 February 2013 GGF 1 1/8 fake dirt (Nina's Dragon)



Withers 2 February 2013 Aqu 1 1/16 Inner Fast Dirt (Revolutionary)






Al Stall has two horses in this race, recently nominated for the Triple Crown, and I'm backing Departing for the win.  a sizzling :47 1/5 4f bullet at FG off a drawing away 1 mile effort at Sam Houston. This War Front son will like the distance and has a great post draw.  If B. Hernandez, up, a 19% winner at FG, can negotiate the traffic I like his chances. 

Code West is the real deal,  perhaps the class of the field, a Lemon Drop Kid son out of Charitabledonation, a VA bred (ohh, my beloved Quality Road, where art tho?), gamely fought in the Risen Star and I have no reason to doubt he won't have that same fight here. 

Revolutionary most likely beat nobody on the inner dirt in the Withers.  That's not the point.  I loved the way he navigated traffic and tight space.  I don't like that Castellano has run at FG this year but he's a darn good rider and there will be traffic again. He's the Morning Line favorite, I'm betting against win but I think he'll be top 4.

Palace Malice, son of mighty Curlin, has Prado up, his third pilot in his last three races.  A steady old hand like Prado may settle him down.  I think he's talented but he has to show it more, so this looks like a great spot to do that.  He ran gamely as well in the Risen Star, no reason he can't win this as well but I have him in the Exotic Mix with a Place or Show possible, top 6 expected. 

Titletown Five is going from 6 and 7 furlong sprints to routes, a move Lukas is only 4% at in 45 tries.  I think he'll be going backwards at the wire and I have him in the exotic mix as possibly holding on for fourth but most likely he'll be well back.  Bet accordingly.

In the "rip the heart out of the Turk" role is Mylute, Sunbean and Golden Soul.  Any of those could move up to Show or Exotic.  Mylute has the blinkers off and the local runner should be a nice price. Sunbean, Stall's other late nominee, has three FG wins all in restricted State races but wow he's been running well.  At Fair Grounds a horse like this can and does win.  I'll be watching the price, currently a 12-1 morning line, and I'll play him in a few wagers.  Golden Soul, with Calvin Borel up, seems like he is dangerous, but we'll find out. 

So what to do? 



I'm going to go with a 10 Cent Superfecta, rare for me, but a reflection of the fact that these prep races are a bit of a crap shoot for the Ol' Turk and my personal ROI on these events isn't where I'd like it to be.  I built a pretty good handicap, it's not too conservative, its not too risky, and I think my bet construction is plausible.  Too bad the horses don't ever seem to get the memo!

Whatever you do, have fun with it;  Do you homework, don't bet the family mortgage money, and if you have a gambling problem, try to get some help, this should be entertainment, not something that strains your relationships.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and The San Felipe

The Kentucky Derby Point Race should take on some interesting dynamics today, as several presumptive favorites take the dirt in what should be their penultimate prep races before the Kentucky Derby. Fifty points for winning and 20 points for Place makes this must see TV.


There are many ways to the Kentucky Derby: The Tampa Bay Derby is the path that Street Sense took to roses while at Santa Anita, Fusaichi Pegasus used the San Felipe as a springboard to achieve the same result. Winners of the San Felipe read like a Who's Who of The Turk's favorites over the past decade or so: Point Given, Medaglia d'Oro, Pioneerof the Nile, Sidney's Candy, Premier Pegasus and Creative Cause. That's some list!

Let's get it on!



There is plenty of interesting pace factors going on within The Tampa Bay Derby; I'm favoring a closer, Dynamic Sky to charge past Verrazano, who should be coming off the pace himself. Who is leading at the top of the stretch, I dunno. I'd like Falling Sky in that role, but I'm not sure after breaking from the nine slot.

Dynamic Sky doesn't seem like a Kentucky Derby winner in the least; Ontario bred, Mark Casse trained, he seems more like a really solid Woodbine runner than a dirt monster. I can't ignore the Sam Davis at the same distance at this track and I'm looking for more of the same, hopefully better.



Verrazano looks and seems the part; I just prefer to see them do it before I'm ready to anoint them, something Pletcher's runners seem to have happen to them.

Honorable Dillon has four races, four improving Beyers, good work, but needs to really show something as he stretches out 2.5 panels of distance. He seems comfortable stalking at shorter distance, not sure how Lanerie will play it for Trainer Kenneally.

Purple Egg is training exceptionally well, but like Honorable Dillon, is making the jump to route.

I'm looking for value in the Top Four, expecting the two classiest runners to take the top spots. That seems to be my theme here as well as the San Felipe.

The San Felipe's field isn't anywhere near as deep as the Tampa Bay Derby. Goldencents and Flashback should strike the top of the stretch together and take a hard run at each other. I am a huge Goldencents fan already, I think the horse is gutty, but Flashback seems the more talented I think he wins today.

I'm looking for Omega Star and Tiz a Minister to clean up what's left. The gelding son of Candy Ride, Omega Star seems to have some race potential and a step forward here would really keen my future interest. Tiz a Minister should have plenty of speed to target as he makes a deep close. Carving needs to show something today for Baffert's barn.

Have fun with today's races.

Turk Out!

Derby Dozen Poll Results and Current Derby Point Leaders

I love horse racing; I love the mental challenge of handicapping, I love the thrill of the wager. I love the highs, and the lows, while humbling, keep me grounded. I like to believe handicapping skills, acquired over many years of enduring the highs and lows, take the proposition of winning to slightly better than a thrown dart. There are days when I can't lose and then there are weeks where I can't win. Sometimes its best to stand back and listen to others give their views on the runners. Longtime readers of The Turk know I eschew outside bias, but this is different. I find it really instructive to listen to others when it comes to Derby Contenders and the group I find myself a member of, offers great insight with cutting commentary.

The Wire Players Derby Dozen have voted on this year's Derby Contenders for the second time and the list is interesting: Ive Struck a Nerve, while the point leader after the first weekend of the Championship Series, doesn't crack the top 12. While not a surprise off of his incredible long shot victory in the Risen Star, points are points and as each week goes by, it will be harder to back chic, lightly raced runners. For the record, The Turk has Super Ninety Nine on top right now.









The Gotham is up today. Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Fountain of Youth and The Kentucky Derby Point Race Update

The Kentucky Derby Prep Season is over and today begins the Kentucky Derby Championship Series.

My criticism of the current system is that the prep season rewards are too meager, with the leaders after 19 races accumulating only 24 points while today the winners of the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Risen Star Stakes will each receive 50 points and the Place Horse will receive 20. What it does do it motivate the winners of the big 2 YO races to start running sooner, in February, and maybe, just maybe, it adds one additional start before the Derby for some of these runners, and 2 additional starts for fringe horses in the field.

I like the concept, I just think it will need tweaking. I would like there to be real motivation for trainers to run the horses more often and one tweak I'd suggest is a veto on gate draw for the Derby: If you collect X number of points and you started Y number of races during the Prep and Championship Series, a Trainer should be able to Veto Gate Position 1 or 20, or some variation of this, to improve his odds further and reward him for running. Maybe I'm missing something, but how does Winning Colors make history in this arrangement, how does Eight Belles get her chance? Maybe this closes the door on fillies, as while a filly does draw interest, a dead filly does not. I'm also not down with the suits at CDI deciding which races are in the circle of trust and which ones are not. I'm OK with most of the races they selected, but there should be some slots that rotate every year. I dunno, I'm the Turk, a hack handicapper and not one of the deep thinkers of the sport in general. For real talented voices in horse racing, I strongly urge you to read some of the top writers at Turf or Hello Race Fans!






This weekend we have the first two Championship Series Races. Most horses have two starts left before the Kentucky Derby. In the 1st Leg of the Championship Series, there are 95 points for the taking in a start, with the Show Horse gathering 10 points. In the Second Leg of the Series which begins about 5 weeks from now with The Florida Derby, there are 170 points available in a start, with Place gathering 40 and Show getting 20. A Show finish in one of the Big Races (Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes) and as few as 4 points or a Place in the Prep Season races, and I think you are safely in the Top 20. Let's assume the top ten in the list keep hitting the board, from Shanghai Bobby to Super Ninety Nine, then valuable scraps will be left over for between 14 and 25 other horses to fight for.

I've handicapped The Fountain of Youth Stakes and will be watching the Risen Star today as well. As a fan who doesn't care much about 2 YO's, by following the Prep Race Season, I feel like I am more in tune with this year's key 3 YOs, so in this way the Race Series and Points Method has enhanced my interest.

Let's get after this!



I think Violence (pictured above) is good. I respect the field that he defeated in the Hollywood Park Cash Call Futurity G1 but I don't know that he is 9-5 good until I see it again. I'm going to bet against him and my base handicap supports this by favoring Cerro (Ire), a typical Team Valor International runner; improving Beyers, a cutback of a 1/16 off his last race win at GP. His pilot, Castellano, jumps off for Violence, and that gives journeyman Rocco a chance.

I have Violence in the Place spot but he's talented enough to Win, and a wildcard enough to finish out of the money. I dunno and that's why its called gambling. I'm playing the odds, perhaps against my gut, and I'll cover him in the Top 4 in all spots.

My next five are a jumble and I think very little separates them. Falling Sky and He's Had Enough seem to be the best of the bunch but they have to show it.

Today's a good race day and I'll be back tomorrow to update the standings and talk about implications.

Enjoy! Turk Out.

The Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll Volume 1 PLUS The Derby Point Standings and Prep Race Results

We are back. I'm not sure what the popular demand is, but Steve and the team at Wire Players have reassembled a collection of experts from the horse racing world to provide insight into the three year old crop as the chase for a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby heats up. Why they want the Turk's involvement, folly possibly, but I'm glad to be a part of the crew again.

People who read the Turk know how I ignore two year old racing almost completely. That's not driven by some moral objection to these youngsters running, its just not my bag. I like to see 10 races on a past performance, I like to see the handicap division runners with 20 starts, I like the data that the older horses provides as a handicapper. As a race fan, I like to fall in love with horses and follow them. That generally doesn't start until the Kentucky Derby for 3 year olds because I just don't get that misty eyed about young runners until they do it a few times.

I've warmed up to the changes implemented this year regarding the point system and the rules regarding entry into the Derby. If you haven't followed it closely, you can get caught up on how the system works here.

It's early: the system is geared heavily towards what would be the second, third and fourth starts of the year for most of these three year olds. The nomination group for Triple Crown Races 369 horses, down from 450 in 2007. It's never about quantity, American Racing needs a quality injection, and with youth we have hope.

Anyway, things are about to heat up. I say that as a massive storm barrels up the Eastern seaboard and coats Turk Central in a thick coating of snow. May will come, May will come.

Turk Out!

The Nomination is In: The Donn Handicap Grade 1 at Gulfstream Park

Welcome friends and readers of The Turk and Little Turk, and a special welcome to the readers of the Thorofan Handicappers Corner. I'd like to thank the Thorofan for the work that they do promoting the fans of horse racing and creating a community of horse racing fans throughout the United States.

I look forward to the Donn Handicap every year, the first big older horse division two turn racing. Good stuff for the horse racing fan inside me but a jagged reef for most handicappers. This early in the season you have a mixed bag of horses at different points in their cycle: Some are coming back from the farm, some raced continuously since the Fall, some are on their second runs off a long break. Trainers have targeted objectives for these horses and their objective may not be winning Grade 1 races in early February. All of these factors to me makes for incredible variability, good payouts, and a chance for frustration or glory. The Turk, a proponent of exotic betting, likes to keep it a bit simple when there are this many moving pieces, and quite honestly, not investing my hard earned capital on crapshoots is often the best course of action. It would be a pretty boring and unfulfilling handicap if I pulled the chicken switch, so we will put our best handicap forward and push up to the punters window with some cash.

Let's get it on!

2013 Donn Handicap Grade 1



There should be an interesting pace to this race, with a bunch of horses that might strike the front and try to stay there. With that much speed it may set up perfectly for a late breaker like the 8 year old, Pool Play: A $30,000 Silver Deputy has earned $1.2 Million through 20 of 34 lifetime money finishes. Another two who may break late and hit the wire or the ticket is Ultimate Eagle and Bourbon Courage. I'm leaning in a different direction, I'm going with the winner of the 2012 Florida Derby, Take Charge Indy.


2012 Florida Derby G1 Take Charge Indy wires the field




2012 Clark Handicap G1: A gutty Place for Take Charge Indy



Training sharply for Trainer Byrne, he's coming off a layoff that Byrne wins 20% of the time. Take Charge Indy is 3 of 3 in the money lifetime at the distance, 2 of 2 in the money at Gulfstream, and 6 of 9 lifetime in the money. His last race against a beast in Shackelford at the Clark was gutty. With Johnny V, up, he'll need to settle, relax and show something as a four year old he didn't show as a 3 Year old: Versatility.

The game winner of the Hal's Hope at Gulfstream is a logical win bet as well (I'd paste the video but some video troll at Gulfstream didn't allow for embedding)

2013 Hal's Hope G3 at Gulfstream

A 4 year old Kitten's Joy who has had good results at GP: 2 wins in 3 tries including a 103 BSF win in December.

Graydar is a very lightly raced Pletcher pupil, and he puts a steady hand in Edgar Prado up on him again as they look for their first stakes win.

So what do we do? I have a base handicap with the way I see the race unfolding. I think the speed may wear down and fade but I'm not betting the mortgage on this baby. I'll most likely box my top 4 for a Trifecta: That's a $48 dollar flier and horses that should all stay under 4 to 1. If you want to go safer, there will be a couple of horses under 8 to 1 like Bourbon Courage, Fast Falcon and Pool Play that could strike for Place. Build several bets with one horse keyed to Win and these two boxed to Place. For $18 dollars you can assemble an Exacta with Graydar, Csaba and Take Charge Indy to Win and drop Bourbon Courage, Ultimate Eagle and Pool Play in Place. I like it and I think I found my bet.

The key in playing the horses in my opinion is to do your homework, be prepared and not start handicapping after the last race goes final, have a plan and work your plan. I've been a horse player for most of my adult life, I watch the horses because I love these magnificent animals, but I handicap purely to relieve work stress and relax. Anyone can be break even if you take it seriously and do the work, and with practice you can scrape out a positive ROI. Bottom line though, have fun, it's a great sport.

I'm ignoring Flat Out at my own Peril.

Best of Luck, Turk Out!