The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome friends to the Post handicap review of the Turk and the Little Turk. The Turk gave out for the Arlington Handicap one name as live and long, none other than 12-1 Ghost Hunter and $2 win bettors were rewarded with $26. The 7 YO Ghostzapper has run very well on the AP fake dirt and won last time out over Deleware Park grass.
I was surprised that Kasaqui tracked and fired too late. I was not surprised that Oak Brook ran so well coming off the Black Tie Affair win. A ridiculous 20-1 Morning line that carried over to the Tote Board.
I had very limited betting today. I passed on the Suburban. As you'll see, with a scratch the field dropped to five and I was pretty sure Shaman Ghost would win. I wasn't/still isn't a Keen Ice backer, but he made one hard run and it was plenty today.
The Modesty and the Arlington Handicap was a mixed bag for me. Just focused on the slotting, the color shows I had the horses slotted appropriately in order of finish. I did pretty good on the Modesty with a Trifecta, Exacta and a $10 Win Bet on Dona Bruja (Arg).
In the Arlington Handicap as I said previously, I was eyeing Ghost Hunter as the long shot and had a $10 win bet on him. I gave back about half those winnings on some poorly constructed cards centered on Kasaqui and Manitoulin.
Finally at Belmont, I was turned off by a six horse Suburban and really turned off when Sunny Ridge scratched and left five.
Hindsight 20-20 I made a major betting error. If I would have simply boxed my trifecta selections from my base handicap, a $2 bet costing $12, would have returned $96. I left money on the table, but I was just turned off.
Finally, a few races from Belmont Park to pay attention to.
Race 10: The Belmont Derby Invitational. 3 YO 1 1/4 Miles Grass.
Today is my second favorite day of the year at arguably my favorite turf track in the United States, Arlington. What used to be called Million Preview Day is now called Road to the Million, and my primary focus is on two 1 3/16 routes over grass. By the way, Little Turk and I will be traveling to Arlington for the Million, our second straight year, and would love to meet any readers, you know yourselves, while we are there.
In the Modesty, Dona Bruja is a five year old Argentinian beast. 9 of 9 in the money over turf and a solid first start in the US in the G3 Mint Julep in early June.
Time and Motion is a Grade 1 winner as a three year old who hasn't quite found her groove as a four year old, with two starts and one Show finish. Trainer James Toner started a freshening over Belmont turf for past six weeks. 8 of 12 in the money over turf, the Tapit daughter looks to get going in advance of Million day. Hard not to like the gutty and game Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup effort from last October.
Darling Duchess cuts back from 1 1/2 miles today where she won last time out in late May. 2 wins in six starts at this distance. Speed is an issue.
Prado's Sweet Ride tracked along evenly in the AP Matt Spellman at 1 1/16 miles over yielding turf a month ago. As the chalk he finished in Show. The 5 YO goes for Trainer Chris Block, winless in past 12 stake races.
Storming Elle and One Liz round out my potential exotics. I tossed La Piba and Bonita Cat. Darling Duchess will be on the lead and should bring the speed. I would expect only Dona Bruja and Time and Motion to make serious late runs. The bet can be as simple as 1 and 3 Over the 1 and 3 Over some combination of horses, or maybe even the 1 Over 3 Over Field. I'll stew on it and you do too!
The Arlington Handicap is a very nice field of fairly even quality with a few class standouts. I could go into a major rant about why Arlington can't have more racing days like this, with more fields like this, but I'll sound like a broken record. Industry insider Ray Paulick has done a better job than I could possibly explaining the situation.
From a Paulick Report in May, "...The racing industry has been trying to get some type of legislative relief since 1991, when riverboat casinos were first approved. It's been stymied repeatedly, and the damage done to the breeding and racing industry is immense. Revenue to the tracks and purses for horse owners has cratered. Horsemen are getting out of the business or moving their stables and breeding stock to neighboring states, all of which offer more substantial purses. Illinois racing has become a shell of its former self.
Slots might have been the answer 10 or 20 years ago, when the competition came from 10 casinos scattered throughout Illinois, and several others were poised just across the Indiana state line adjacent to Chicago's South Side. One of those gambling parlors, the Rivers Casino in Des Plaines, is only 11 miles from Arlington Park in Chicago's northwest suburbs. Illinois casinos offer a full range of table games – blackjack, roulette, craps et al – to go with slot machines.
More recently, Illinois legislators moved to add electronic games to virtually every tavern and bar in the state. The 2009 law – approved by jailed former Gov. Rod Blagojevich – took several years to clear legal hurdles, but it is now in full effect, with tens of thousands of devices at bars, truck stops and fraternal organizations.
Slot machines are no longer unique (May 29, 2017)."
There is still hope regarding bill SB7, but Illinois is such a messed up state, I'm not sure if I'm prepared to have any faith or hope that Arlington can be saved, I love that track and its a horrible shame what has become of the Illinois racing scene.
Anyway, Illinois racing is not dead yet, at least for another day. Turk favorite, Kasaqui (Arg) looks to be in fine form winning the Wise Dan G2 at CD on June 17.
He has a tendency to take Place (10 in 26 starts) but I'm really impressed by this 7 YO. Perhaps a contrarian view, I like Manitoulin here. Comes in off career best 97 Beyer in a 1 1/8 Turf carrying 122 (He'll be 10 pounds lighter than Kasaqui at 114 today). Second time out as a gelding (poor fella). Sir Dudley Digges is a very classy Ramsey owned Gio Ponti Ontario bred trained by Michael Maker with Leparoux up. These two combine for 23% wins in past year on 196 mounts. Winner in N3x $80K OC last time out and will be closer to the pace than Kasaqui at the top of the stretch. In the one spot is Taghleeb, another Maker conditioned horse, a 6 YO Hard Spun bred by Shadwell. Oak Brook is an up down 5 YO gelded Giant's causeway son that has been claimed repeatedly and is currently in Brian Williamson's barn (8% graded stakes, 10% turf wins, 10% routes). 9 Win-Place results in 19 lifetime races. Took the Black Tie Affair at Arlington at 16-1 last month on yielding turf. Will be on the pace. Ghost Hunter is live and long. 6 Win-Place finishes in 9 turf starts. Trainer Jamie Ness stepping up big time in Class and Competition. Has had sucess over the fake dirt, winning G3 Hashin a 1 Mile here at AP in May. Won last start, 1 1/8 over firm turf at Delaware Park in mid June. Applicator I have rated lower than I expect he will be on the tote board at post time. I look at running lines: Weakened Late a 1 1/4 in G1 Manhattan, No Factor, No Factor, tired, Walked Off, Weakened, faltered. I may be too harsh here. Watch the Manhattan video. I don't see the horse that earned those running lines.
Applicator did not belong in the class for breeder/trainer Mikhail Yanakov but really ran well until being eased at 1/16 pole. Class drop, distance drop. I'll be watching him on the tote board. I'm not sure yet what I'll be doing in the Arlington Handicap. Whatever you do, do your own handicapping and bet responsibly. Turk out!
References
Paulick, Ray. May 29, 2017. "View from the 1/8th pole: Time is Running Out on Illinois Racing." Retrieved from https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/view-eighth-pole-time-running-illinois-racing/
If you told me Follow Me Crev, the five year old son of Quality Road, was racing in a six horse field, I would say of course, it's the state of racing at Santa Anita.
What's really disappointing is that this isn't Santa Anita, it's Belmont, and he goes against Shaman Ghost and maybe two more legitimate threats in the Grade 2 Suburban.
Let's take a closer look at some of these runners:
Pimlico Special G3 1 3/16 Miles Fast Dirt. Watershed and Shaman Ghost
Charlestown Classic G2 1 1/8 Sloppy Dirt. Matt King Coal and Sunny Ridge.
Santa Anita HandicapG1 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt. Shaman Ghost and Follow Me Crev.
Santa Anita Gold Cup G1 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt. Follow Me Crev (watch last 1/8 mile)
I'm really not sure what I want to do with this race. I don't think it's a stretch to say Shaman Ghost is the best of the bunch. 10 of 12 in the money on fast dirt. A field top Beyer of 112. Consistent, solid efforts, typically comes late, with a physical charge in final 16th. Game. Driving. Flat Out.
Shaman Ghost will be heavily bet. My only interest in this race is to either beat him or single him on top of exacta with value below. Value is relative for most of these runners, so unless I make the case for Sunny Ridge or Watershed in Place, what am I doing?
Can Follow Me Crev, Keen Ice or Matt King Coal win? Of course they can.
Keen Ice is first back after trip to Dubai. It's an angle I don't love. Training sharply for six weeks now for Trainer Pletcher. Winless in last 10 races, 2 wins in 21 starts, 1 win in seven starts at classic distance. Ugh. I'm not a fan of this horse at all.
Matt King Coalcomes in off win and career high 102 Beyer on a fast Penn National dirt route in early June. 4 of 4 in the money in 2017 for the 4 year old son of Cool Coal Man, a Florida Bred trained by Linda Rice with Ortiz, up. Lone Speed and a front running style. He could steal the race.
Follow Me Crev leaves California for the first time for Trainer Vlad Cerin. He'll be coming very late with Shaman Ghost. Loses the class battle to Shaman Ghost but with right trip its possible.
I'm thinking Shaman Ghost late but I'm going to try Matt King Coal and/or Follow Me Crev over Shaman Ghost in an exacta. That sounds conservative and blah.
I may box Matt King Coal, Follow Me Krev, Sunny Ridge and Keen Ice in an exacta and freeze out Shaman Ghost for a high reward/low risk betting possibility.
If I play it, and that's still a big if, it will be purely hunting for value, which means Shaman Ghost having an off day. Sounds like a bad bet.
Boom goes the dynamite. The Turk doesn't brag, there is no bravado in my tweets or posts. The Turk doesn't profit in anyway from the blog. I do this because I'm a long time handicapper who works a high pressure job and this is my golf, my Suduko, my Farmville, my "...whatever get's you through the night."
I had no expectations for today's race. I handicapped it, I bet it and wow: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta. Check Check Check. I almost didn't bet it with two scratches, but I was all dressed up and ready to go and I did it.
The Turk is off for a well earned cigar. Thanks for reading!
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. Happy 4th of July to my American readers.
The Turk is a proud American veteran, the son and grandson of soldiers, and my message today to all my fellow Americans is to remember that we live in the greatest County the World has ever known, the most generous Nation the World has ever known, and the most loyal Nation our allies have ever known.
It's trendy to say "...I wish we were more like [fill in the blank but mostly I hear from fan boys of our Northern Neighbors]" but the Turk ain't buying any of that and I strongly urge all the America haters to keep on hating but at least remember that being allowed to hate is a freedom you enjoy only because it was protected by the blood of patriots. Instead of hating, why don't you consider returning to the middle, where compromise and fairness resides.
I must admit, I almost never play PARX. I was interested more as a horse fan as the New York bred Fourstar Crook (above) leaves the Empire State for the first time and tries to keep a seven race win streak alive.
Trainer Chad Brown (23% Turf, 24% Routes, 20% Graded Stakes, 26% Won Last Start) has Joe Bravo up on Fourstar Crook. The 5 YO Mare will be heavily bet but I like the chalk. Steady speed improvement over past yeara and she's stretching out another 1/16 today to a distance she has 4 wins in 5 starts at.
Thinking contrarian, I like Light Up Our World (Ire) to have odds somewhere between 5-1 and 8-1 at Post Time. Trainer Arnuad Delacour is a 40% winner with first time Lasix, 24% Turf, 26% Routes and 23% Graded Stakes. Flying under the radar?
Cambodia is a 5 YO War Front mare who comes in off G3 Galorett win on Preakness Day.
She had a great trip and I don't think she'll have such an easy early go in this race. More impressive was the bad trip and late turn of foot by Elysea's World (Ire). 7 of 10 in the money over turf, the race's biggest Tomlinson on grass (443) and the highest Beyer (99). Brown's got three in this race.
In the Eatontown Park G3 on June 3, Light in Paris (Ire) had a good trip, made a nice late move, but eased up and was taken very late. Tin Type Gal wasn't much of a factor and is tossed here today.
My Impression is an interesting 4 YO, trained by McGaughey (19% Turf, 20% Routes, 13% Graded Stakes but 26% off a 2nd off 45-180 day break). Sharp work over Belmont grass at 4f on 26 June. Cutting back in distance. 4 Wins in 7 starts at the distance. Lots to like at what should be a good price.
I've tossed four, with Gone Away the only one I think of note. Trainer Michael Matz (5% graded stakes, 14% turf and routes) had the 4 year old run :36 2/5ths at 3f on 1 July and she is in off a win at Laurel where she powered away in a N2X 25K OC. Stepping up.
I'm not sure what I'm going to do with it. I'm thinking I'll hunt for exacta with a few combinations and try to eek a few bucks out of it. I may single 10 OVER 6-1-2-3-8-9, a $2 bet for $12 and then play around with 8-6 OVER 8-6-10-2-3, a $2 Bet for $20.
Whatever you do, handicap your own race and bet responsibly.
The Turk don't brag or self promote. I've been handicapping for well over 25 years and I can pick winners. The first step before you even try to assemble the exotic bets that I do is learn to place horses in expected ranges of finish. In a nine horse field, can you get the horses into a Top, Middle and Bottom three to start? Can you identify solid singles?
The Turk looked at post time 10/1 Bigger Picture (4-1 ML) and saw real value. Joe Bravo up, big plus. Trainer Maker 20% on 887 turf races, big plus. Solid training and a cut back in distance. A value pick, and contrarian topost time 7/5 Beach Patrol who I like, but hey, this isn't Curlin or even the Lemon Drop Kid. Value pick. No pink sheets. No fees. Handicapping and Bet analysis for people who never asked for it!
The Turk cashed tickets on the exacta and trifecta. Good way to start the second half of the race season.
I picked Beach Patrol for my highlighted equine today, but I'm betting against him. His last win was a gutty effort six races back at Arlington and he's the only Grade 1 winner here, but I'm expecting he'll be heavily bet so I'm thinking contrarian and will fit him into Place and Show.
Chad Brown's barn is 23% over the turf, 24% routes and 20% graded stakes, all race highs. Beach Patrol is 10 of 13 in the money over turf. I'm shading out of the Win Spot to my own peril.
I'm considering any of three for Win. Bigger Picture, trained by Michael Maker, with Bravo Up, has two wins at the distance. The gelded six year old should be in the top 5.
Messi (Ger) has been training sharply for Graham Motion and the seven year old will have a nice price. Better suited in Show-Exotic spot.
Can'thebelieving (Ire) it's Motion's other entry. The six year old gelding put a good effort up over Monmouth turf in June and is also training sharp. Better suited in Place-Exotic.
Itsinthepost (Fr) is 4 of 5 in the money in 2017 and he should put up a solid effort regardless of turf condition. I like him to Win through Exotic, top 4.
Oscar Nominated is a four year old Kitten's Joy colt running for Michael Maker. He's a bit slower than the rest of the field but is my only remaining candidate for the top 4.
That's six horses being considered for top four slots. I'm not going to overthink this one too much.
Beach Patrol should set the pace. I'm looking for Itsinthepost to rally for the Win as most likely scenario. My base handicap is a rare deviation for me and I didn't base handicap and instead built a possible exotic bet structure. I may keep it simple and put 3-5-7 OVER 2-1, a $2 bet for $12.
My trifecta may be 2 OVER 1-3-5-7 OVER 1-3-5-7-8, a $2 bet for $32. Whatever I do today, I'm not over covering and I'm prepared to lose for a reasonable chance at least double the return if I win.
What ever you do, handicap yourself and bet responsibly.
