The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
The Turk searched for shareable video for this race to post here but could not find any. I'm a big fan of trip handicapping, and there were some unusual trips to be observed here; Mayor Marv putting up suicide fractions of :22 and :45 1/5 before imploding. Santamonicacanyon matching hop for hop with Mayor Marv, taking the lead at 3/4's and then promptly immolating. As I expected pre-race, Kelly Leak would have to close to win, and close he did. To those of you my age, Kelly Leak was that handsome kid on the left, who led the Bad News Bears from zeroes to heroes without making an ass out of you and me. The Kelly Leak who won this beauty is the fine bay Runaway Groom colt just below.
The bizarre trip that Espinoza took with Mayor Marv decimated my trifecta bets. I fashioned a few exacta bets, and luckily one took.
Race 12 Sunland Park: The Sunland Derby 800k; 1 1/8 miles on red New Mexico dirt for 3 YOs.
This was a mostly enjoyable weekend of racing, and this coming week will be as well. The Ol' Turk will be at the Santa Anita Derby and if anyone would like to meet up and talk ponies, or even better yet, have a bourbon and a cigar, you'll find a kindred spirit. Drop me a line.
Hair of the dog my friends. You'd think I'd be horse raced out after the past few days, but the best remedy for the hangover is a small dose of what hung you over. No, I'm not talking about bourbon, but an interesting little dirt race worth more the Florida Derby, in a big league horse racing backwater(Pepper's Pride, my apologies), New Mexico. The race has attracted an interesting crop of lesser known 3YOs, and a few with graded stakes earnings that would make Dunkirk jealous.
Race 12 Sunland Park: The Sunland Derby 800K; 1 1/8 miles on Dirt for 3YOs.
I've been watching Kelly Leak for the past few weeks. Coming off a turf race, and before that a 6f sprint, the Grade II winner is versatile and should be fast enough. By no stretch a gimmie, as the second best colt in this race, Mayor Marv will most likely go to the lead, and it will be up to Kelly Leak to be in a position to take the race back in the last furlong.
Mine That Bird is 4 of 7 lifetime and has over $325,000 in earnings. The Grade III winner ran in the Breeder's Cup before shuffling trainers. Advice gets blinkers for the first time, something that Trainer Pletcher eeks wins out 26% of the time doing. Advice has regressed or not progressed after running with some really talented horses as a two year old. Valid Stripes owns the biggest BSF at 100 and 2 of the top three BSF in the race.
I think money will split even between Mayor Marv and Kelley's Leak. I most likely will tie both of them to some value in a trifecta or a series of straight trifectas.
The Turk didn't have any expectations with the Dubai races except to enjoy the races themselves as well as gain experience handicapping foreign horses with scant information on the PPs. The Florida Derby on the other hand, I had high expectations to not only handicap well, but to possibly find a betting situation that would result in a big payout. Well one out of two ain't bad.
Race 10 GulfStream Park: The Florida Derby Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.
With two scratches, the field got a bit too small, and the money a bit too big on what the betting public sensed were the only three horses worthy of betting. They were right, but as a bettor, you're not happy when everyone else has the same opinion as you. The Trifecta paid $6.00. I did some quick math a few minutes before post and thought the Trifecta would be no more the $10.00, and with a minimum payout expectation threshold of $30.00 that I shoot for, I passed. I had two bets ready to go, and one of them was the straight trifecta, but again, a bettor like me who likes to eeck out good returns on small risk just didn't see the point.
But I'm ahead of myself. The race itself was semi-dramatic for about a furlong. Quality Road hit the stretch and the only one ready to meet him was Dunkirk. The two fine colts, the best two colts in this race, traded the for several hops before Quality Road dug in gamely and won by a length and a quarter. A solid handicapper that I know suggested to me prerace that Theregoesjojo's trainer had the horse leave something in the tank during the running of the Fountain of Youth. While I do think the horse came out of that race fresh, I also think the reality is Theregoesjojo is a quality Grade III winner, an threat for Grade II wins, and not a true Grade I horse. I'll get hate mail, but that's the way I see it. The 401 Triple Crown nominees are down to about 10 real Grade I studs and a group of 30 or so Grade II's and then some serious parity competing for Allowance Races and Grade III's. No crime in being what you are, Class comes not from what was paid for the animal, but what level the horse can consistantly be competitive at.
A solid, solid win that propels Quality Road to the top of my Derby favorites and I only hope that Trainer Jerkens finds a way to keep him sharp, but I don't think I need to worry about the horse knowledge in that man's DNA.
I feel like I want the hours of my life back handicapping Dubai. I was pretty unsucessful with the races I blogged, and I did OK with some other races on the card, but blogger ethics prevent me from bragging about races I don't previously announce my intentions with. I've got the video, including a great Japanese race call of the Dubai Duty Free. The video on both race shows a rather non compelling result, not to take anything away from either winner. I was very impressed by Well Armed. I've always liked him, but perhaps never enough to pick him over his contempories like the late Go Between.
Nad Al Sheba: The Dubai Duty Free Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on Turf for 4 YO and Up.
Nad Al Sheba: The Dubai World Cup Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on dirt for 4 YO and Up.
The stakes are high at today's Florida Derby. There is $750,000 of graded stakes money up for grab, and the last opportunity for some of these colts to earn a way into the Kentucky Derby. Five of the nine starters are Triple Crown nominated, but the one that gets my chalk is currently un-nominated, Quality Road. I guess I'm a bit surprised by the size of the field, and the lack of true Grade I competitors, but we can't handicap who should be here, only who walks into that paddock dreaming of hay, carrots and the cheers.
Race 10 Gulfsteam Park: The Florida Derby Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.
I am doing my best to ignore the hype machine that surrounds Dunkirk. Perhaps the 3.7 million dollar Unbridled's Song colt deserves the accolades, but being old fashioned I like to see a horse beat quality graded stakes competition before I'm willing to scrawl chalk all over its hip. Will that mean I won't be part of clamoring masses who have already coronated this horse "super"? Perhaps, but then again, I'm generally out of step with society anyhow, why start now to conform.
With that rant issued, I am left no where else to turn but Quality Road. It's not like I'm the pretty girl settling for the bald introverted guy (a remark which the Turk resembles), Quality Road earned a 113 BSF in his win in the Fountain of Youth. He's had a running duel with Theregoesjojo, and I think he's better, and he likes to be pushed, and all that means I think he'll be the best today. Is this a stone cold Turkish lock? Far from it, but this is horse racing, and the dirt (or that paraffin like stuff that maybe is safer maybe isn't) is the crucible that determines winners from pretenders. To the sharp eyed amongst you, that is Barbaro, resplendant Barbaro winning the Florida Derby in 2006. Now that was a horse!
The Turk finds himself a bit blurry eyed after spending too long last night handicapping races I most likely won't even bet. Why won't I bet them? Huge fields, plenty of parity, and unsure weather conditions. Why will I bet? Huge fields, plenty of parity, and attractive odds on some horses that have the potential to win this race in a year where no clearly superior horse is present. I was amused by the Getty image I found this morning while looking for a picture to paint a flavor of the event. While I guess I shouldn't judge behavior, you would think this young lady would show a bit of respect to the values of the country she is a visitor of? Then again, most people in modern society seem to have no real understanding of decorum anyway, but I digress.
Race 7: Nad Al Sheba; The Dubai World Cup Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on dirt for 4 YO and up, 3 YO and up for Southern Hemisphere bred.
This is a tough race to predict with the rains that are expected and the size and quality of the field. I think when life presents uncertainty to should go with what you know. Godolphin and Saeed runner My Indy will have Dettori up, and while maybe not the best horse, he will be placed in a position to succeed at the stretch, and that's all you can really ask. Casino Drive is such an intriguing horse, full of promise, full of potential. This would be as big a win as any of Better then Honour's babies have had. Too soon to have a strategy, I'll going to watch the weather, and the tote, and spread around some win bets with value, and string a few exactas together as well, keying on my A group tagged with A's and B's. Albertus Maximus and Asiatic Boy will attract alot of money. A fun race to watch, a fun day to watch, but a crap shoot more then a handicap. I'll be back later with the Florida Derby. Good Stuff!
I love the races in Dubai. It's such a dichotomy; sand and manicured dirt, waterless but lush green turf, modern architecture set against Bedouin culture.
I love the big fields chasing the big purses. It is more of a World Championship then the Breeder's Cup, at least for 4 YO and up (as god forbid an American 3 YO leaves the Derby Trail.) I digress.
After 30 something pages of PP popped out of printer for Dubai World Cup night, I decided to only blog the races I thought were the most compelling. Let's get it going.
Nad Al Sheba Race 5: The Dubai Duty Free Grade I; about 1 1/8 miles on LH Turf for 4 YO and Up or 3 YO and Up for Southern Hemisphere breds.
I like the filly Vodka. I think she comes back strong in her second race after a break. I think that Balius (IRE) has a very good chance to win this as well. Both will go off at least > 7-1. My really big live and long horse is 8 YO Niconero (AUS) coming in after a long trip and 3 weeks rest.
The Turk advocates no betting strategy. With the size and parity in this field, exotic bets are out for me, so I will look to string together a few win bets and a few straight exactas based around my ratings.
I'd like to talk more, but more 'capping to do!
For the sharp eyed amongst you, that fine looking horse is none other then 2008 Dubai Duty Free winner Jay Peg.
The Turk took his time before writing this post. I'd like to tell you it is because these races, the Lane's End Stakes in particular, were such important races with such great implications to the Derby Trail that I had to make sure I analyzed it completely.
Well, that would be a lie. I feel like a broken record, as after most Derby preps I'm asking the same question: Is this parity and the signs of a very deep 3 YO class OR mediocrity where people would prefer to place hopes with Dunkirk then on the colts that have actually been competing in graded stake races?
I won't try to answer that question. The past performances, and not written hype, should be the basis of Derby contender lists. I'll take raw video on YOUTUBE any day to help me analyze the 401 Triple Crown nominees instead of talking heads on SAT TV. The Turk's red flair pen is working overtime, but as any honest handicapper will attest, some results just fly in the face of logic, and that's why they race on dirt (or that stuff that masquerades as dirt and contributes to soft tissue injuries) and not paper.
Race 10 at Turfway Park: The Lane's End Stakes Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on synthetic for 3 YOs.
I could have handicapped this race ten times and I wouldn't have picked Hold Me Back. Post Race on ESPN, they prattled about him posting bullets (true, but with small numbers of horses and not eye popping times) and Mott's stats with horses off of long layoffs (20% out of 95 races which is good except compared to Trainer Kiran Mclaughlin's gaudy 25% after 257 races). About the only thing the Turk saw that made sense was the second grouping of Proceed Bee/Parade Clown and Jack Spratt being bunched up in the second tier. West Side Bernie and Bittel Road join many other Triple Crown nominees who haven't stepped up when the moment was theirs to seize. Dynamite Bob was one of the only horses that got the memo and finished where he should have.
Race 7 at Santa Anita Park: The San Luis Handicap Grade II; 1 1/2 miles on Turf for 4 YO and up.
I was worried prerace that if a few horses scratched, that this smallish field would equal a ho-hum race to handicap and watch. I wasn't wrong. I did feel good about Spring House and I hope he is OK after being vanned off (I sometimes hesitate to find out...but I will). I wasn't surprised by Frankel's trainee, the only 4YO and the horse seemingly with the freshest legs going into the race.
Luckily in horse racing, if you have a dud weekend, there is always another opportunity soon. We'll be back next weekend with some more compelling races.
