The Nomination Is In: July 1, 2009: The Dominion Day Handicap Grade III at Woodbine

The Cindy Pierson Dulay photo to the left is Ice Bear with the lovely Chantal Sutherland up. Ice Bear is The Turk's chalk in Wednesday's Dominion Day Handicap at Woodbine. To the uninformed, July 1st is a holiday in Canada, as they celebrate their independence from England (and announce their dependence on Tim Horton's coffee).

The installed morning line favorite is Vacation. The 4 YO Dynaformer colt is a good runner, coming off a Grade III win at 1 Mile at Arlington in late May and has been training very sharply at Belmont since. I don't think this colt will go to the starting post as the favorite, but we'll see.

Race 8 WO Post Time 4:29 ET: The Dominion Day Handicap Grade III; 1 1/4 on Fake Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



I'm leaning towards regular Woodbine runners in this race. Ice Bear is 6 of 11 in the money at Woodbine and is a Grade III winner. Trainer Benson's and Ms. Sutherland have combined to win 64% of their 11 races together.

I like Marchfield to Place. He's placed behind Ice Bear twice before and beat him once. He has a PP filled with deep closing and he's 9 of 10 races in the money at Woodbine and regular rider Husbands up.

For now I'm inserting Approval Rating in the Show position. Trainer Jordan wins 43% of his races on fake dirt and when combined with Jock Mcaleney they win 45% of the time, based on a staggering 93 races together and the 5 YO son of Lemon Drop Kid is 6 of 6 in the money at Woodbine.

Where does Vacation fit in? Short answer is I dunno yet. I'm not a fan of boxing unnecessarily, but Vacation could finish anywhere on the board. I don't like his 3 wins in 19 starts or the fact it's his first WO start, but I like J. Velazquez up, I like the string of 90+ BSF he is posting and I think he hasn't run his best race yet.

Equitable is making his second start off a long layoff. I like the A.P. Indy colt who put up a 5f in :59 2/5ths a week ago. He's most likely my 5th and last horse I'll insert into any of my Tri's. Super's are being taken for this race as well.

I don't generally handicap this far in advance so I will update as we get closer.

There is some great writing going on at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance. Check out the new homepage and you'll find some of the best voices from the new and old media talking up the horse game from every different angle. The Foolish Pleasure should be a must read for all fans of the game.

Have fun. Turk out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 27, 2009; The King Edward Grade II at WO

A good race for the race fan in me. Pre-Race, I lamented the difference between being a race fan and a bettor. It's as big a gulf as the difference between handicapper and bettor, perhaps with more passion.

I'm a fan of Rahy's Attorney. He thrilled me with his Woodbine Mile win last year. I backed him in the Connaught Cup and he came up a bit short. Even yesterday I wasn't sure his current form was better then his challengers, so I backed Sterwins. The calculating bettor in me went against him and I fought the race fan in me who wanted to back him. Duality and dichotomy have no real place in this game.

Before I get all misty eyed and weepy, remember The Turk isn't a an advocate of betting to feel good. I handicap many races I never bet. I love the mental challenge, but when I bet, I bet to win. Win means different things to different people. To the Turk it means betting small dollars (generally less then $15/race) and turning it into either the same amount or a slightly bigger amount. Positive cash flow. While being happy for Rahy's Attorney return with panache (a new course record at 1:44.73), I was positive cash as well.

Race 7 WO: The King Edward Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on Canadian Turf for 3 YO and Up.



Because of the small field and the amount of heavily bet favorites who I knew would be in the top three, I declined any boxed bets. Instead I fashioned Tri bets based on my base handicap with Sterwins/Rahy's Attorney and I had one ticket with Society's Chairman and one with Baletti. Those went bust.

Round two I flipped Rahy's/Sterwins and placed Society's Chairman and Balletti on separate tickets for Show. That was the winner, and my $8 wagered returned $39.90.

I'm not really sure why the betting public liked Baletti so much. He ran a nice Allowance race recently with a 101 BSF, but betting him down that low against Grade II warriors like Sterwins and Rahy's Attorney wasn't reasonable.

The Bison City $250,000 is today at WO at 3:27 ET. It's 1 1/16 on fake dirt for Canadian foaled 3 YO fillies. We'll be back for that I reckon.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: June 27, 2009: The King Edward Handicap Grade II at WO

Deja Vu. Flash forward from May 24th and the top combatants are back at it again from the Connaught Cup Grade III at WO, run at 1 1/16 on Turf. Today's Grade II King Edward, run at 1 1/8 on Turf I reckon will have the same results. Before I go to far, in case you didn't see the news yet either, Terrain did pass away last night after he was injured in the Iowa Derby. He was my chalk in last night's affair and I never like to see that happen.

That fine looking colt pictured is Sterwins, winner of the before mentioned Connaught Cup.

Race 7 WO Post Time 4:01 ET: The King Edward Grade II; 1 1/8 on Turf for 3 YO and Up.



I'm semi-tempted to flip Sterwins and Rahy's Attorney but I can't make a strong enough argument that Turk favorite Rahy's Attorney is in better current form. It is his second race back after a long layoff, and I do believe he is a better horse. It's tough to be a horse fan AND a serious bettor, as conflicts do arise. It's a three horse race in my mind, but Baletiiis interesting and could upset the exotic cart.

Again, my sympathy to Terrain, trainer Stall and her owners.

Rest in Peace Terrain

Injured and euthanized after the Iowa Derby, Rest in Peace Terrain.

Post Race Analysis for June 26, 2009: The Iowa Derby

As the Turk likes to tell his readers, sometimes you just have to let certain races go. The Iowa Derby is one of those races. I'll add video when I can find it, but it appears from the chart that the speed went to the front. As I said pre race, Soul Warrior and Red Lead were the pace. The problem was the horses I predicted to come off the pace just never did. Terrain was vanned off and I hope to find some news on him soon. We will take the no news is good news approach. Just an ugly looking race chart. Shake the prairie dust from your sandals, as there are other race tracks to handicap today. the Turk will be back later to handicap The Grade II King Edward from Woodbine and possibly return to Prairie Meadows for the Cornhusker Handicap, an 11:17 ET affair. The Acorn and the Vanity don't really interest me as a handicapper, but I will be watching as a race fan.

Until Later, Turk Out!

Race 9 PM: The Iowa Derby: 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt for 3 YOs

The Nomination Is In: June 26, 2009: The Iowa Derby $250,000

That fine looking animal is none other then Tiz Now, winner of the 2008 Iowa Derby. I've never handicapped Prairie Meadows so this is fun and games for me, but I'm betting my base handicap and a bunch of 10 cent supers and we'll see if we can't start the weekend off on a good note. The picture was taken by Coady Photography.

There is a 30% chance of rain tonight at Prairie Meadows. If you're concerned about the surface go to Weather DOT Com for the local update and avoid the Prairie Meadows pathetic casino-track website which offers almost no useful information.

Race 9 Prairie Meadows Post Time 11:17 ET: The Iowa Derby $250,000; 1 1/16 miles on prairie soil for 3 YOs.


This is an interesting field. I would peg the median BSF of the horses in this race around 85 and there is quite a bit of parity up and down the starting gate. Name recognition will lead many bettors to Uno Mas, but I'm not sure what to make of the Asmussen trainee. I'm putting him just outside of the top four, but he's a wild card as he has the class to be much better then his 0 for 6 in 2009 record.

I've liked Proceed Bee several times over the past few months. I also like Terrain. Terrain is clearly the best horse in this race and with a drop in competition, should be able to win this race. Both will come off the pace, most likely set by Red Lead and Soul Warrior.

Watch the tote and as always look for value. I don't have a strong opinion on my handicap but if forced to choose I'd say it has a mid level chance of being accurate. To me that's not good enough to wager any significant dollars. I will bet several 10 cent supers, and then no more the 10 dollars on straight tri and exacta bets. Have fun.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for June 21, 2009: The Queens Plate at WO

Friends, family and readers of the Turk know that when he hits a good handicap he likes to celebrate with a cigar, and currently his smoke of choice is an Opus X. The Turk, as always, would like to thank the lovely Dita for joining him in the celebration, and thanks to Mrs. Turk for not slapping him senseless! I digress.

Sunday's Queen Plate at Woodbine was a good moment in my handicapping. I had spent about 1 hour on the morning of the race pouring over the PPs looking for hints of current form. I intentionally tried to avoid reading any pre race hype, a Turk ritual, as it will cloud my thinking and I'll often start shading up horses with better pre-race buzz then the data will support.

Whatever buzz Milwaukee Appeal had, she deserved and her Past Performance backed up the hype. With a better trip I think she may have won this race. The horse I backed and liked was Mr. Foricos Two U, whose odds shortened steadily as the day went on.

The Turk hammered home a boxed Superfecta for his efforts. I credit the win to sticking to my principles of handicapping based on the PPs, trip analysis, J/T stats, current form combination of race and works, as well as class. I made a handicap and I worked my handicap. It's what I call a workmanlike bet. Thanks to the Appleton Turk for funding a portion of the bets placed this weekend. She's finally progressed from scratch ticket mama to Sport of Kings maven. I digress, again.

Race 9 WO: The Queens Plate Stakes: 1 1/4 miles on fake dirt for 3 YOs foaled in Canada.



The Daily Race Form Race Chart is here.



I placed a series of Superfecta straight bets with Milwaukee Appeal on top of all, and they all went bust. I had several straight Trifectas that I missed on. My boxed Super paid $344.20 and I bet $40 dollars total.

Good Stuff. Enjoy the race video, it was a great race as expected.

Turk Out!