The Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll Volume 2 and The Turk's Top 12

Only on the Internet does a hack like The Turk, an admittedly lousy young horse prognosticator, get to give his opinions on who the best three year olds in the county are.

Volume 2 of this year's Wire Player's Derby Dozen Poll is now out, and while I'm a part of this group, these people actually know what they are doing! Shockingly, seven of my selections have made the top 12 this week. I almost bust my gut at the lovely Jill Baffert's shout out at how we suck, but I do have Drill higher than my companions.

Friends, this is what horse racing is about, opinions, comments, and a shared love of these animals. If horses are only numbers on the Form in your mind, The Turk is the wrong blog for you. Things will be heating up this weekend with the Risen Star and the Fountain of Youth primarily. The calendar is about to turn over to March. I could write a few more ranting paragraphs about the old days when three year olds ran every three weeks but I won't bother, the landscape has shifted. There may be this weekend and one more race before Kentucky for the biggest stars and you'll have to form an opinion off a limited resume. Who wants the distance, let that dictate your thoughts, who's going to want that distance.



And The Turk's opinions only...



Have fun with this friends. Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Late Pick 4 at Fair Grounds including the Grade 2 Risen Star

Oh Mighty Risen Star, how we gather today in your honor and memory. Winner of the 1988 Preakness and Belmont Stakes, son of Secretariat and the namesake of today's key Kentucky Derby prep race.

The season is heating up quickly and this is one of the first all star weekends of the year, with the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream tomorrow, and Union Rags and Algorithms getting it going on the Derby Trail. As a horse racing fan this is the sort of stuff that stirs the slumbering soul.

The Turk hasn't been very sharp lately. I downshifted after the Breeders' Cup and while I've had some success in my non-blogged handicapping, I haven't been very good on the ones that mean the most to me, the one's I share with my readers and friends. I go through funks just like everyone else and its these funks I think about when I get on a run and I get comments from folks that I "never lose". Everyone loses friends, what I think I am good at is understanding when I'm in a funk I can't gamble my way out of it. For me, the best thing to do is to pull money back off the table and just handicap. When the handicapping is good, the betting will follow.

For now, I think I'm still in a funk and I am ratcheting up the number of races per week I'm analyzing and after doing this for many years I know very well, all funks will pass.

Let's get started with the Pick Four at Fair Grounds today!


Fair Grounds Races 9-12: First Post 4:55 Eastern Time



Track condition is not apparent yet. The track is currently listed as fast and the turf yielding. The weather today looks like a mixed bag. The biggest wild card for the pick four would be if races are pulled from the Turf. We'll deal with that as we go.

Race 9 is The Mineshaft Handicap, a Grade 3 event. Trainer Asmussen is having one heck of a meet at Fair Grounds and is atop the trainer standings. He saddles Thisskyhasnolimits who comes in off a career best 101 Beyer at this distance. 5 of 9 in the money at the distance and 8 of 16 in the money on fast dirt, the 5 YO son of Sky Mesa with Sellers up looks to go hot early and throttle the competition.

Coming with a late run with be Fast Alex: the 5 YO Jim Tafel bred son of Afleet Alex is attempting to give Greg Geier a much needed graded stakes victory.

Gladding ships in for Trainer John Sadler. Training very sharply at San Anita but on the bench since the Ack Ack where he couldn't hit the board after setting the hot pace. No wins at this distance, I'm expecting a fading finish and I'm not covering the win.

Alma d' Oro has Castellano up for Trainer Pletcher who's only started 2 races at Fair Grounds this meet. Set a dirt best 98 Beyer in a Show loss to Thiskyhasnolimits last time out. Pletcher 28% off the layoff he had after the Clark.

Pants on Fire has been on the shelf even longer, since the Haskell. Winner of the Louisiana Derby, training well but may need an effort to improve conditioning. Trainer Breen 10% winner off 180 day plus layoffs. Hot jock Napravnik is up.

Race 10 is a 5.5 panel turf sprint. I'm going to approach it as being on yielding turf. I most likely will bail out of a Pick 4 if either Race 10 or 12 is moved to the main track, so I'll be watching closely before I have to commit.

Zeb is a 5 YO gelding who is 3 for 3 on FG Turf and training sharply. Trainer Foley does well off the 61-180 day layoff, winning 22% of the time, and he wins 20% of the time he saddles with Napravnik. Class jump and longish layoff but I'm hunting for P4 value.

Cactus Son is a bit sharper and won on off-turf 25 January at this distance. Trainer Burgess wins 40% of of his turf sprints on 20 tries. Sellers up.

Country Day, Chamberlain Bridge and Lonesome Street all merit consideration. Chamberlain Bridge, hard to believe he's 8 now, still has wheels and looked very good on Fair Grounds yielding turf in December. he's got top weight today but ignore him at your peril.

Lonesome Street is cutting back in distance and is a wild card as to how Castellano positions him. I should cover but I won't.

Country Day is the one I'll most likely regret not covering, but you cant cover everyone. Let me repeat, you can't cover everyone, especially a horse that might end up at 2-1 and comes in off long layoff. Winless at FG, only 1 turf win in 8 starts for the 6 YO son of Speightstown. Strong, game effort Placing against Regally Ready in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. I like him if it shifts to the main track, along with Joe Hollywood and Southern Style.

In the Risen Star some highly talked about yet still unproven Triple Crown nominated runners head to the starting gate. Trainer Larry Jones has coupled entry Mark Valeski and Mr. Bowling for owner/breeder/former Governor Brereton Jones. Mr. Bowling was a head winner of the LeCompte. I'm backing Mark Valeski who comes in off a OC win and some nice work, with Napravnik, up.

El Padrino ran a smoking 100 Beyer in an OC at GP for Trainer Pletcher and he will surely get a good test today.

In a hunt for P4 value I may take a flyer on Afford, son of Street Sense, winner of an N1X here in early February. Z Dagger goes for Asmussen off the LeCompte head loss as the chalk to Mr. Bowling.

I'll be watching the early races and watching the tote board leading up to Race 9 before I make a decision on the pick four. As it sits now I've built a 3 X 3 X 3 X 3 =$81 1 dollar bet and that's too rich for how I feel as a handicapper right now. There's nothing wrong with taking a step back when you are struggling or when the conditions aren't optimal (off track, chance of surface switch etc) and just playing the races vertically instead of horizontally. Super High 5 is offered on race 12, I'd rather throw the dice at that then some stupid scratch lottery ticket.

Whatever you do personally, do it after careful thought.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park

The Turk would like to thank the fine folks at The Thorfan and the Handicappers Corner for the privilege of throwing darts against the wall, errr, handicapping this weekend's Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park.

The Turk loves the handicap division because the richness of information over several seasons that unfolds on the past performances stirs the mathematical intrigue in me. Horse racing for me is a two for one value; I get jazzed by the handicapping and the gambling, especially when I win, but I'm also able to put aside the money side of things and just be a super fan. Like everyone, I dream of the next Triple Crown winner, and I honor the eleven previous winners, but it's the older runners on the dirt and the turf that really do it for me. Last year was a bit lean on returning heroes and it's time that the cupboard gets restocked with superstars older than 3 years old.

There are some great minds on this internet-thingy handicapping: The Handicappers Corner, The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers are great places to go and bounce your own thoughts off of people who are right pretty often. I believe strongly in building handicaps without outside influence, so I really hope you have already built your handicap and you are just using this to gage your own thinking.

I was musing the other night that my own racing year mirrors the handicapping division: I shutdown after the Clark Handicap, I go to the farm (OK Chipolte's and the corner bar) and just chill until early January, I show back up in Florida and start running again, getting my stride up before taking another break in May, only to pick it up around Saratoga/Haskell time and making the strong run back to the Breeders' Cup. Turk buddy, what the heck are you talking about? I'm sayin' that I'm rusty in the handicapping and I've been resting my red pen since the Clark, just like some of these runners have been resting since that same race. If I graphed my ROI, which I do, I'm at my absolute best at the end of the season when the horses are a pretty known quantity and my handicapped skill is at its proverbial "3rd race after a layoff" best. I ain't there yet but let's take a swing at this race anyway.

Gulfstream Park Race 10: The Donn Handicap



One problem with being an internet hack handicapper is exposing your thoughts before you have enough information. Without blogging I'd have my base handicap for the Donn done on Friday night but my bet strategy would be formed once the track conditions and scratches and changes
firmed up. I also like to stare at the tote board for as long as possible to make sure my superfecta investment makes sense. Perhaps the worst feeling I know is "investing" $50 to make $30. The weather at Gulfstream this weekend looks like it has the possibility to continue to be inclement, and I've built my base handicap with a slant towards slop.

So where am I coming from? Flat Out has four progressively decreasing Beyer races in a row. He looked like a horse that needed a break after the Clark Handicap, but many Breeders' Cup combatants put in dull efforts in thier first races back. Trainer Dickey got a turf effort in for God only knows what reason except possibly to increase sire value, or he just couldn't find a better spot in the conditions book. I dunno, seems like an Allowance race over dirt and 1 1/16 would have been better but the point is he got work in and this is his second effort off a 45-180 day layoff. Surely Turk that's a winning angle? 0% for Dickey but only his 5th try. Jock Solis is just a 6% winner at Gulfstream. On the positive side, I liked his slop effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and he is a bit sharper race wise than some of his cohorts, at some point I have to believe he reverses course and returns to form. This weekend would be a good time!

Dick Dutrow, not my favorite trainer but a solid horseman nonetheless, brings in Trickmeister, 5 wins in 5 starts lifetime at age 5 after beating up on shoulda, coulda, woulda types like Our Dark Knight. Ramon Dominguez and Trainer Dutrow combine for 32% wins and the son of Proud Citizen has been sharpening up over the Gulfstream Park track since New Years Eve. I want to be careful he's not too high on the toteboard but I will cover him in all four spots in my Superfecta.

The presumptive bettor's chalk will be Shackleford. I love the horse but there are red flags; winless since The Preakness, before that an N1X. A loser to Coil at the Haskell by a neck and trounced at the Travers, a loser to Wilburn at the Indiana Derby, only to choke to Caleb's Posse in the Dirt Mile. I am tickled pink to see him back and excited for Dale Romans and his barn, but I am concerned. He's a tepid B for me, Top Four on expectations and class.

Ruler on Ice, the Belmont winning gelded four year old son of Roman Ruler, is back for popular trainer, Kelley Breen who places Rosie Napravnik up. Also resting since The Clark, some very impressive bullets at 4 and 5 furlongs and a very solid resume on slop may make me reconsider and move him further up the handicap.

Soaring Empire and Redeemed will round out my top six Superfecta candidates. Soaring Empire is more of a one turn specialist and he enters off a disappointing 6th in the Hal's Hope after winning in 2011. I like the 5 YO an awful lot and I am very interested in seeing how he goes over the slop. He does own the best Tomlinson (453) over the muck. Redeemed is Dick Dutrow's other runner who is taking a jump up in class but is worth a look. The one that could make me look stooooopid is Hymn Book, but then again, a son of Arch, ridden by Johnny V for Shug McGaughey is just screaming to not be ignored. You can't cover everyone and you'll go broke tryin; build your handicap and bets with an eye towards the bottom line.

I'm going to assemble a Superfecta that approximates my base handicap. If I don't like what I see on the tote board or if more than just Al Khali scratches (I'm going to guess he does)I may retrench to a Trifecta just to keep my action reasonable and in line with where I feel my handicappers touch is right now, which is, well, "1st effort off a 60-180 day layoff".

Also, sorry for the gratuitous $6,000 dollar pile of winnings on my desk. I'm stroking my bad motherf**ker handicapper mojo back up, just like a trainer takes a horse out for a nice blow before a big race. It's my "It's Britney, Bitch" moment.

Great talking to you friends. Enjoy the races, Turk Out!

The Wire Players Kentucky Derby Dozen Poll- Volume 1 2012

Getting out the vote. It's that time again, the Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll is back for a third year. A collection of fine journalists and bloggers, and one idiot bald bigmouth will bring to you the top Kentucky Derby Contenders from now until the first Saturday in May.

In between I'll bring you as much video as I can find on the contenders, as well as reviews of the major prep races, and we'll try to solve this annual brain twister together. My goals remain the same: The Oaks-Derby Double and the Derby Superfecta and Super High Five. Let's get after it!



In all seriousness, its a real honor for the Ol' Turk to be involved with such an insightful and snarky collection of fellas and one pretty lady who knows her stuff.

The Derby Dozen Poll Panel

Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz

and of course, the man, Steve from Wire Players

Be well friends, Turk out!

Leftovers: A Slice of Cold Turk-ey

The business end of the Turkey, where all my best handicaps come from.

The Turk has a real problem: I love the Derby Trail, but I really hate betting these prep races because I'm just not that good at it. Instead of losing hard fought positive ROI on these equine rookies I'm going to blog-recap the best of the previous weekends races and let my trip handicapping eye influence my opinion for awhile.

Speaking of cramping my style, I've been so fixated on my actual gambling I forget to blog much in January. I just can't help myself, no matter how disciplined I think I am on occasion I flip the script on life and let it all go. I was a machine the last two weekends on the 4 YOs and Up and Turf races, and was quite content to ignore the youngsters. The calendar is about to change to February and the first 2012 Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll is about to be released so I better get my act in gear.

If you like great insight and snarky comments, check out the Derby Dozen folks every few weeks from now until the First Saturday in May.

I don't give much of a hoot about 2 YO racing, so the Holy Bull, The Count Fleet and the Sham were my first impressions so far.

Holy Bull



The Count Fleet



The Sham Stakes



I liked what I saw from all three winners but the trail's just starting...

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 21, 2012; The Grade 3 LeCompte at Fair Grounds

Insanity: "Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
Albert Einstein.

Here we go again, another year, another Derby trail. I have this wonderful comfort zone, my happy place, where my ROI is pretty phat and I feel like I actually know what I'm doing, but I just can't leave well enough alone. With the annual return of the Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll it's time I figure out these three year olds. We had a rollicking' good time last year and I hope you enjoy our Top 12 polls and the free spirited fun that goes into them. Joe Hirsch would not be amused. What Dear Ol' Mr. Hirsch would respect is the Derby Dozen folks were pretty high on Animal Kingdom last year, well most of them except this idiot bald fella who loved Archarcharch. Pictured above is Mighty Hard Spun, the 2007 winner of the LeComte. Picture by Jane and we thank her for our use.

It's most likely a wet day in the Big Easy tomorrow so keep your eyes on the changing track conditions and the tote board of course. As this is a CDI track, you'll just have to deal with the very lame track website.

Before I go to far I will admit the Turk has been in a real horse racing funk since the Breeders' Cup, which quite honestly, was not the most exciting two days of racing I've been to. Quite possibly the annual lamest excuse of an awards show was conducted last week, the Eclipse Awards, and I'm just appalled at the quality and depth of what is considered worthy champions. I really believe that a horse should have to achieve some sort of "super majority" of votes to win an award, and I don't think there is anything wrong with not having an annual winner if there isn't a deserving nominee, it shouldn't be the lesser of three evils. I was happy for winner Claire Novak, the enterprising young turf writer who is such a champion of good within our sport. Claire won for her journalism chops, her merits, not because of anything else, and Little Turk and I congratulate her. Long story short, I'm starting to feel it again. You can't fake it, and us humans, well were human, good weeks and bad. I thank my friend Steve at Wire Players who unwittingly rekindled my fire by getting the band back together again.

Let's get it on!

Thomas Amoss is a Fair Grounds Hall of Fame member and he has some pretty impressive horse in the outside spot, Shared Property, a gelded son of Scat Daddy. He's got the biggest Tomlinson for the distance (396) and is a Grade 3 winner over the fake stuff already. Amoss wins 33% of the time, in 396 starts, over dirt.

Larry Jones, the Turk's personal favorite dirt horse trainer, brings in Mr. Bowling, a modestly bred son of Istan for breeder/owner Brereton C. Jones, the former Governor of Kentucky and a righteous man who thought it was a good idea to post these in schools. 2 wins on fast dirt, a win at the distance and some very impressive work over the FG track, including a fine :58 and 4/5ths on the 9th of January and a 1:00 and 2/5ths at 5 furlongs and 1:12 4/5ths at 6 furlongs, all in past month. Robbie Albarado up.

You have to respect 22% FG winner Rosie Napravnik when teamed with 29% FG winner Al Stall Jr. The combo works at a 36% win clip at FG on 25 tries. They together bring in Stormy Atlantic's son, Seven Lively Sins. Stall wins off the 61-180 day layoff 38% of the time. Not sure if he's a finisher and looking the other way right now.

One of Zayat's coupled entries is Z Dager, coming in off a sloppy effort at FG at this distance, taking the wire at 14.7 to 1. Assmussen trains the son of Mizzen Mast. The other half of the couple is Dan and Sheila, trained by Pletcher with Johnny V up. Second effort in career, breaking maiden in December at 1 mile at Gulfstream.

Exfactor, an Exchange Rate colt (very handsome by the way), has been very consistent in 4 starts, winning three over the dirt with a a Place in his MSW first try. Won at 6f at FG last time out by a nose and a Grade 3 winner.

An Artie Shiller son, Hammers Terror, looks pretty solid working up at FG for this effort. Trainer Stidham clips along at 25% wins over dirt but only 3% winner in this angle, the 2nd effort off a 45-180 day layoff. That's gotta just be a quirk in the stats? Hard to say, but the numbers are the numbers. :59 3/5ths at 5f and :48 flat at 4f, both at FG, as well as one win at this distance on fast dirt at FG. Tomlinson on wet dirt lowest in the field.

Capetown Devil, a 3 YO gelded son of Cape Town, is also a winner at this distance over this fast dirt at FG on 30 December. 3 for 3 lifetime. Trainer David Carol 0% winner, 4 starts in graded stakes.

So what am I thinking?



I'll string some superfectas and trifectas off of my base handicap; If it gets as sloppy as it appears it may, I'll expect some scratches and we'll just slide the coupled entry of Dan and Sheila and Z Dager up as needed into the top four.

I had a good time tonight handicapping this FG card and blogging about this race. Race 9, The Louisiana Handicap is really my sweet spot, handicap division over a route of dirt, and Mr. Jim Tafel has Fast Alex cranked up already and Pletcher has Alma d' Oro. This will be a fun race, goes to post at 3:55 CT, 4:55 ET.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 San Pasqual at Santa Anita

The Turk and the Little Turk are back in 2012 and we are proud to lead off the Handicappers Corner this year for the good people of The Thorofan.

The Turk loves the handicap division. It's pretty simple really too, I love numbers. I see elegance and beauty when I study a Past Performance. To people who know me the best, and who allow me to bore them the most, they know that I went years working a night shift where I handicapped whole cards, never once watching the physical race, just working the red gel pen only to repeat the process night in and out. It was my crossword puzzle, my Sudoku. It was the Internet that brought me back to racing after a lull in my interest, the Internet and horse racing on satellite television. This time of year, the older horses are either on the farm or they are just coming back to training and quality of the fields can be a bit so-so. This Grade 2 San Pasqual might not pass for an OC $40K N1X at another time in the year, but here we have it. I led off by saying I loved the handicap division because I like to deal with long racing histories and lots of running lines, but this group caught my eye in a bad way: 135 career starts, 4 fast dirt wins. Can you say ugh!

I do love Past Performances but I also love Race Charts. I have all eight days races in the current meet at Santa Anita printed and I'm starting my review of them this weekend. I'll break down the winning post positions, the basic race forms and pacing, and how the tote board rankings compared to the final outcome. I'm not so much interested in races like the San Pasqual as I am about gleaning knowledge about how the races might unfold in February and March and April, and I keep my own statistic. I prefer to gather my own stats because when you just look at the numbers you can sometimes miss the economy of word descriptions of how the race unfolded and the "story behind the story". It's too early to really hang too much on what I'm seeing but chalks are winning 38% of the time in my early review of the first six days of racing. I'm not interested in chalk today, let's see if we can beat em'.

Race 8 SA: The Grade 2 San Pasqual; 1 1/16 miles on Dirt



I'll assemble a reasonably priced $1 Superfecta built around my base handicap. I'll pay attention to the tote board as well as the scratches/changes and I'll either slip back to a Trifecta or pass altogether if there is a key (non-Toss Out) scratch.

I look forward to another great year meeting like minded horse racing fans. The Thorofan's Handicappers Corner has assembled a deep and eclectic collection of writers and handicappers, the best of the best in the blogosphere, providing keen analysis and insight from now until Breeders' Cup. Don't be bashful if you are new to the game, there isn't a blogger or writer who doesn't love to meet his readers, and you are in the right place, The Thorofan is all about the racing fan community.

Have fun, Turk Out!