Post Race Analysis for Raceday February 16, 2009

Oaklawn Park Race 9: Southwest Stakes Grade III; 1 mile on dirt for 3 YOs.

The Turk likes to wax poetic about learning and evolving as a horseplayer. Last night I wrote about being too conservative when I had a nice bet on the Dearly Precious at the Big A. It was a five horse race and I knew, as many others did, that my top three graded horses would finish in the top three, yet I was too conservative to place a creative bet and pocket an OK tri payout.

I'm still good with passing on the Dearly Precious bet. I'm a handicapper, but not a big bettor. My game is small bets, mid sized rewards, and I also believe strongly in the best bet is often the one you don't make. With all that said, with the size of the field today, and the number of quality horses that were going off at long odds, the light clicked on that I had a betting situation and I wondered how I would approach it.

Resetting the situation, I felt Old Fashioned was the best horse in this race, but I thought Silver City had a good chance based on current form. I graded them both A plus horses, and to me there was a good rift between these two and my next highest graded horse, Poltergeist.

This morning, while I handicapped the Southwest I thought there was a pretty good chance of a pretty good sized tri payout, especially if one of the longer odd horses rounded out the ticket. As a handicapper, even one as conservative as me, when you feel pretty good, you have to let it ride.

With my belief that the top two horses would finish 1-2 or 2-1, I decided to place a series of tri bets and hope for the best. It worked and paid $111 dollars.



Obviously my gamble isn't worth it if the third choice of the bettors finishes third. I took a chance, which isn't like me, but again, I felt pretty good. My blog isn't about betting theory or even betting strategy. I fancy myself a horse race analyzer who occasionally bets. Here's hoping I can keep my current very hot streak alive, but any horseplayer worth his red flair pen knows I'll run cold soon.

I'll order a few bourbons tomorrow on the airplane to celebrate.