Anatomy of a Bet: The Sand Spring Stakes at Gulfstream Park

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk blog, in our 11th year of handicapping and bet construction here on the interwebs and in our 33rd year of being a degenerate horse player.

I had no particular rooting interest in yesterday's Sand Spring Stakes, the tenth race on the Gulfstream Park card on Florida Derby Day.  I picked a race to blog about with one one criteria other than my main criteria of being a turf race and that was field size, which the race had nine entered and eight went to post.

My early season, and to me I'm only in full blown handicapper mode between May-October, is just about getting my handicapping techniques engaged and working again after a handicappers holiday that I take every winter to refresh my mind and love of the game.  I've blogged three times in 2019 and given you three winners cold and some good exactas to boot.  Am I bragging?  Not at all, just pointing out that I honed in on the things that I do best, namely handicapping turf races, one mile and up, over firm turf primarily, and that I'm really confident in my abilities to size up the field (handicapping) and generate positive ROI consistently (bet construction).  It's not bragging, I'm actually humble, humbled by years of highs and lows.  Yesterday's exacta and trifecta win on the Sand Springs Stakes was because I ignored the mantra of Han Solo.  I noticed my second choice, Proctor's Ledge bet down to 1-1 odds, a mare with one win at the distance should not be bet down to 50-50 odds without at least challenging the possibility, which is what I did to my benefit.

Handicap Pre Race




And my pre-race thinking was:

$2 Trifecta  with 9-5 OVER 9-5 OVER 6-8-4-2  is worth $16 while a lean mean $2 Tri with 9 OVER 5 OVER 6-8-4-2 is $8.

You'll notice I put Fire Key #2 over Vendita #1 in my bet construction, which was just an educated hunch. 

I was leaning pre-race to single Proctor's Ledge if the post time odds mirrored the morning line odds, 4-1.  When they didn't, without a shred of emotion went with my original thought and put Valedictorian on top for an easy $9.50 exacta on a $2 bet.

I plunked down $6 to win $23.90 Trifecta betting 5-9 OVER 6-8-4  

Smartest guy in the room?  Far from it.  Consistent handicapping and not over thinking the bet construction, relying on the work I've done and using the tote board eyes to make sure I don't overlook value.  

Have fun with it friends!  Turk Out.