The Nomination Is In: Breeder's Cup Turf 2025

 

Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction.

It seems like ages ago, but this blog first handicapped a Breeders' Cup in Santa Anita in 2008.  The blog itself was conceived while watching the 2007 Breeders' Cup in rainy Monmouth Park, rest in peace George Washington.  It was a different time in the world, as Twitter was just taking hold and people actually read, and gasp, commented on, long form blogs.  Blogs are seeing a  resurgence with sites like Substack, but it was a heady time in horse racing when bloggers were aplenty, covering the sport from every point of view possible.  

I never kidded myself, I'm not a turf writer, just a guy who has been handicapping for the better part of 40 years, a horse racing fan since the mid 1970's and a decent analytical brain (shout out US Navy Nuclear Power Program and 30 years in business culminating in becoming a CEO-shout out to perseverance, shout out to luck, shout out to poor work-life balance.) I digress

As I handicapper, I work all year for this upcoming weekend.  My choice of handicaps isn't random, I'm progressing either through a single meet, or progressing through a stakes calendar for this weekend.  All the Graded Stakes handicapped invests me into these horses, and sets me up to be my sharpest as a player when the handle is big and money is to be made.  Earlier this week I posted a blog entry with all the video on these runners,  I wont repeat that, but you can find it here.  

Let's get After it:

The Breeders Cup Turf   G1:  1 1/2 Miles on the Del Mar Turf Course, for 3 YOs and Up

I was going to call this an interesting field, and then I thought about it, and if you removed Minnie Hauk (Ire) and Rebel's Romance (Ire) from the field, then it would be a very interesting American Grade 1 turf race.  Including them makes this a top heavy race with a fairly mediocre bottom of the field, especially at the outside posts.  The filly, Minnie Hauk (Ire), as morning line favorite at 8-5 I didn't think was appropriate.  Yes she carries 7 less pounds than Rebel's Romance but it's her 8th start, the furthest she's traveled before coming to Del Mar was Ireland to France,  a flight too short to pass out complimentary beverages. At 3 YO, if this filly wins it will be shocking and historic.  Yes she can, I don't think it will happen.  But it's not exactly like Rebel's Romance winning will provide value. The two of them combined for 51.5% of the adjusted Morning Line and 53.6% of Turk's Fair Odds.  I think we will have to get creative with the Betting Structure to realize value.

1.  Have Rebel's Romance (Ire) or Minnie Hauk (Ire) first with a few logical late runners in Place.

2. Swing for the Fence:  Put a bunch of Horses (my non-RED) in Win Spot and put both Minnie Hauk and Rebel's Romance in Place Spot.  

 I priced out both at $24 Dollar Options:

$2 Exacta:  1-8 OVER 2-10-4-3-9-6 for $24

OR

$2 Exacta 2-10-4-3-9-6 OVER 1-8

I'm not wasting money on the most logical, a 1-8 Boxed finish.  

Exacta History for 2024-2025

Tomlinson Analysis for Turf and Distance:

Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!