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| Andina Del Sur (Chestnut Mare) : Elsa Lorieul Photo Credit |
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.
Like many things in life, horse racing is as divided into cliques and social groupings. I belong to what people a Tout.
tout1
/tout/
verb
- 1.attempt to sell (something), typically by pestering people in an aggressive or bold manner."Jim was touting his wares"
- 2.NORTH AMERICANoffer racing tips for a share of any resulting winnings.
noun
- 1.a person soliciting custom or business, typically in an aggressive or bold manner.
- 2.NORTH AMERICANa person who offers racing tips for a share of any resulting winnings.
While I'm not a big fan of being called a "tout" it closely fits the definition per the Oxford Dictionary. The key difference? I'm not offering advice for part of the winnings. I'm not a Pink, Yellow Sheet, etc etc. I offer my handicaps and bet constructions on random races for pure pleasure and enjoyment. Call me a tout if you like, but I'd prefer horse racing fan and hack handicapper!
Lets get after this race today, a 1 1/16 Mile turf event at Gulfstream for 4 YO and up Fillies and Mares.
The weather at Gulfstream for Friday and Saturday seems pretty dry. I'd expect firm turf. On Friday Morning the turf was listed as Firm. You'll find Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions here.
Lets start as always with a little applicable video handicapping.
29 Nov 2019; AQA. 1 1/16 Miles good Turf. Forever Together $150K
Get a look at Andina Del Sur and Sweet Bye and Bye
14 December 2019; GP 1 Mile firm Turf. My Charmer $100K
Very solid race from deep traffic for Munchkin Money for Show.
19 December 2019; GP 1 Mile good Turf. OC25k.
Solid run by Malkia for owner/trainer Laura Cazares
I think the wild card is Magic Star. On a class basis, she wins before the race begins. 4 YO daughter of Scat Daddy. Trained by Chad Brown with I Ortiz Jr. Up, a 29% win combo at GP. Last raced 26 October,. Brown wins 23% off 61-180 day layoffs. Only third start of her career but if she can figure it out this year, wow what upside. She'll need to show real maturity with this group.
Can't say I had very different feelings than the morning line, as you can see I most tracked similar thoughts with possible exception of being less bullish on Sweet Bye and Bye and Maroubra (Fr).
I'm expecting a workmanlike Andina Del Sur to be workmanlike Nothing fancy for the 5 YO Giant's Causeway, 11 of 17 in the money on Turf, 5 of 8 in the money lifetime at the distance, zero wins in five GP starts, ouch, but she's has 4 of 5 in the money at GP.
I like Munchkin Money and her resilience. 7 YO trained by Clement isn't the fastest or the classiest, but a nice late turn of foot. 2 wins in 3 GP starts, the NY bred should be in the money.
Sweet Bye and Bye is productive: 5 of 6 in the money 2019, 11 of 13 in the money lifetime, but tossing two off the turf dirt affairs,. this mare finishes 11 of 11 in the money. 7 of 7 in the money over turf. 5-2 Morning Line, I'm not sure I am that impressed but she's good. Her and Adina Del Sur will be battling in third straight race. Trainer Klesaris is winless in two Graded Stakes in past rolling year.
I most likely will look at a few Exacta's; a 5-7-3-4 $2 exacta is worth $24, too rich really for a budget gambler looking for value. Something possibly like 4-5 OVER 2-3-4-5-7 $2 exacta for $16 might be my taste, or Adina Del Sur and Sweet Bye and Bye boxed and over Magic Star and Munchkin Money.
This is the 2nd of my 52 Bets for 2020 Series. Last week's race and blog entry was The San Gabriel at Santa Anita.
The base handicap was pretty darn good. The interesting thing was how little Desert Stone was respected on the tote board, going off 7-1, 5th best in the field of 7.
I swung for the fences a bit by placing Overdue on top of a win bet and exacta. That was a $16 overall losing bet. Betting my Base Handicap would have been a much better exercise as that returned $44.20 on a $2/$16 bet.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
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