The Nomination Is In: The Belmont Stakes G1

American Pharoah: Photo by Mike Sekulic

Hello Friends and Welcome to the Final Triple Crown Edition of 2015.

While I believe in general we use words, adjectives, too liberally when describing the brilliance of horses, winning the first two legs of the Crown earns you respect, winning all three puts you in the Hall of Fame, remembered forever.

As we are an older fan base, for better or worse, most of us, including me,  have fond memories of Seattle Slew and Affirmed's Triple Crown years.  They were larger than life, and it seemed like the Country stopped for a few minutes to watch the race, and then celebrated the achievement like you would today a great Superbowl.  It was an era before the idea of a Hollywood Race Track being torn down could even be imagined and when Hialeah was treasured as the Saratoga of the South.  Today's race will be held in a facility that is not maintained properly and maybe 25% fewer people will be in attendance than would like too because its just not safe to have 130,000 in the building anymore.

I could lament these things about the sport, but the Old Turk isn't a "lamenter" nor do I pretend to have the answers to what ails our sport.  I'll leave that for real journalists and I'll continue to be the hack handicapper that I am.

Let's get it on!

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	American Pharoah/5	A+++
Place	Frosted/6	A---
Show	Materiality/8	B+
Exotic	Mubtaahij/1	B
Also Ran's	Madefromlucky/3	B-
	Tale of Verve/2	C
	Keen Ice/7	C
	Frammento/4	C-
	Belmont Park Race 11: Post Time 6:50 ET	The Belmont Stakes G1
	1 1/2 Miles on Dirt	For 3 YOs and Up

The field isn't that impressive and a bit small for this handicapper's liking.  On paper and on Big Sandy, American Pharoah has more class and appears poised to achieve true greatness.  As a horse racing fan, that's wonderful and everything, but I'm trying to make ROI here on my betting capital. What do I need?  With American Pharoah going into the gate at 3-5 or even worse, I'd like to see him valiantly fight, rally, and be passed by two longer prices at the wire.  

	Win	Place	Show
Win	American Pharoah/5	American Pharoah/5	American Pharoah/5
Place	Frosted/6	Frosted/6	Frosted/6
Show	Materiality/8	Materiality/8	Materiality/8
Exotic	Mubtaahij/1	Mubtaahij/1	Mubtaahij/1
Also Ran's	Madefromlucky/3	Madefromlucky/3	Madefromlucky/3
	Tale of Verve/2	Tale of Verve/2	Tale of Verve/2
	Keen Ice/7	Keen Ice/7	Keen Ice/7
	Frammento/4	Frammento/4	Frammento/4
$2 Boxed Trifecta: 5-1-6-8-1-3= $120 $0.50 Version=$30
	Win	Place	Show
Win	American Pharoah/5	American Pharoah/5	American Pharoah/5
Place	Frosted/6	Frosted/6	Frosted/6
Show	Materiality/8	Materiality/8	Materiality/8
Exotic	Mubtaahij/1	Mubtaahij/1	Mubtaahij/1
Also Ran's	Madefromlucky/3	Madefromlucky/3	Madefromlucky/3
	Tale of Verve/2	Tale of Verve/2	Tale of Verve/2
	Keen Ice/7	Keen Ice/7	Keen Ice/7
	Frammento/4	Frammento/4	Frammento/4
$2 Exacta Box: 5-6-8-1-3=$40
$2 Exacta Box: 6-8-1-3 OVER 5-6-8-1-3-2-7=$48
$2 Exacta Box 6-8-1-3 OVER 1-2-3-6-7-8= $40

I'm pegging American Pharoah winning at 40% and 70% in Win or Place.  

One approach could be to just single American Pharoah and then take the rest of the non-tossed field and fill in Exacta/Tri and Super bets.  A 5 with 1-3-6-8 Over 1-3-6-8 would cost $24.  I really don't see the point.

I think it may be worth a $40 flyer on my NON American Pharoah exacta bet:  6-8-1-3 OVER 6-8-1-3-7-8 for $40 Bucks or you could toss American Pharoah into the Place Spot and spend $48.

Tossing American Pharoah again out of the top two, you could go 6-8-1-3 and then in Place add in Keen Ice and Tale of Verve, leaving only Belmont kill joy, Nick Zito's Frammento, uncovered.  

Have some fun with it and Good Luck to American Pharoah and all of his connections.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Nassau on Turf at Woodbine

Clement: Photo by Nancy Rokos

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk.  It's nice to break away from the Triple Crown trail to handicap races where my real passion is, turf running.  A route of turf over a beautiful course really stirs the Turk's horse racing imagination.  With all due respect to mega trainers like Pletcher, et al, I most admire  the turf training maestros like a Johnathan Sheppard, John Gosden or Christophe Clement, pictured left.  The term Conditioner seems to have been created for him.

Woodbine's turf course is one of my favorites in North America, just behind Arlington.  Woodbine is far ahead of Arlington in generating stakes races and purses.  While I'm playing Arlington today, for a beautiful early season Saturday, the card should be much better than it is.  How a Saturday card, in what is a short race season at Arlington, cannot contain a single stakes race or have a purse over $25,000, is very concerning to me about the future of that track.

Anyway, that's a subject for someone who knows what they are talking about, a serious journalist or blogger, and not this idiot handicapper.

Let's get it on!

Woodbine Race 8: The Nassau Grade 8, 1 Mile on Turf

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	Stellar Path (Fr)/4	A+
Place	Deceptive Vision/9	A
Show	Resistivity/11	A--
Exotic	Overheard/3	B++
Also Ran's	Winning Rhythm/12	B
	Sky Treasure/7	B-
	Strut the Course/1	C++
	Skylander Girl/2	C
	Surtsey/5	C
	Llanarmon/6	C
	Copper Kitten/8	C
	Silent Star/10	C
	Woodbine Race 8: Post Time 4:45 ET	The Nassau G2
	1 Mile on Turf	For F&M, 3 YOs and Up

I'm focused on faster handicapping.  I'm developing a better technique for when I am at the track and making a spot play, looking at Past Performances for the first time seconds after one race ends and with only enough time to quickly review and get to the windows.  I've become to accustomed to sitting at the table in dead silence, with my charts and graphs, and taking tons of time to assemble complex exotic bets.  At the track, I toss all that in the garbage for a few spot plays here and there.

I'm typically not a fan of betting any race I haven't put alot of preparation into, but what the heck, I'm letting my hair down (metaphysically speaking that is!)

Stellar Path and Deceptive Vision were the top horses coming out of my cursory review.  Stellar Path is a versatile 4 YO, 10 of 14 in the money, 7 of 10 in the money at the distance, and coming in off a less than firm turf win.  Deceptive Vision comes in off a win at KEE on the dirt, a switch Pierce wins 50% of the time, albeit on 4 tries.  Husbands up.

A group of four horses made it into my exotic pool.  I say exotic loosely, as I'm looking at Exacta primarily, maybe Tri, maybe not. Resistivity, a Mark Casse trainee, has been training sharply and looks ready to step up in class.  Expect a great price.  Overheard, 10 of 11 in the money on turf and 3 of 3 at WO, has been training up since an early April fourth at KEE.  Winning Rhythm I think would like more distance, has only 1 win in 6 at this distance, none at WO, and is 0 of 3 in 2015.  Sid Attard first time with trainer stats 9% on 22 tries.  Sky Treasure I expect will be on ticket anywhere but first.  Casse's mare spent the Winter at SA.

Simple Exacta: $2 Bet  4, 9 OVER 4,9 3,7,11,12 for $20

Simple Triactor ($0.20 bet available) $2 Bet 4, 9 OVER 4,9,3,7,11,12 OVER 4,9,3,7,11,12 is $80.

I doubt I care that much so we will try to thin that down to something liker this:  $2 Bet 4,9 over 4,9 11,3,12 over 9,11,3,12,7 for $58.

Have fun friends!

Turk Out

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 3 Pimlico Special on Black Eyed Susan Day

Page McKenney in Purple with Silver Diamonds

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk on Black Eyed Susan Day. I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for giving me the opportunity to handicap for you today's Pimlico Special, a Grade 3, 1 3/16 mile affair on the dirt for 3 Year Olds and Up.  To the left is Page McKenney, a local trained by Mary Eppler, a closer whose in the deep end of the pool class wise and will have to be at his very best to hit the ticket today.  We are gambling after all, so let's take a look at this field and see what we are working with.

Let's get it (our preak) on!  By the way, thanks to Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club, for use of the photo.

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	Commissioner/10	A-
Place	Page McKenney/5	B-
Show	Transparent/2	A-
Exotic	Top Billing/8	B-
Also Ran's	Cat Burglar/9	B
	Vyjack/7	C++
	Encryption/3	C-
	Kid Cruz/6	D
	Tapiture/1	Scratched
	Albano/4	Scratched
	Pimlico Race 14: Post Time 6:21 ET	Pimlico Special G3
	1 3/16 Miles on Dirt	For 3 YOs and Up

It's hard not to like the Evil Empire's   Todd Pletcher's Commissioner.  His last four races back to the Belmont Stakes last year, he has sat right on the pace, within 2 lengths of the lead at first call, and you should expect that today.  Purely on class, the son of A.P. Indy seems to be the package, but don't get carried away by any hype.  He laid an egg in the Donn Handicap, was barely Show in an Optional Claimer one race and one month before that, and then he went unraced after the Belmont.  I think you'd be foolish to not cover him in the top spot, but let's hope that he cracks and one of the closers gets him, as there is money to be made in this race if that happens.

The closer bench got a bit shorter with the scratch of Tapiture, offset by the scratch of pace setter Albano. Still, closers like Page McKenney and Top Billing still provide a horse player some hope as both will go off >10-1 I reckon.

Page McKenney is my top upset pick.  Remember, most longer odds finish in Place, not Win, but let's suspend analytics for a moment and get caught up in how cool it would be for a local to win here.  The sport always needs a feel good story and the horse lover in my is a sucker for that stuff.  The cold horse player in me still likes what I see: deep closes in last three races, 23 of 34 in the money lifetime, 12 of 15 life time in the money on fast dirt and the local edge.

Returning to probabilities, Transparent and Cat Burglar loom as threats from a 4-1 to 6-1 range of value.   The Florida bred Transparent is a big fat tease in my book.  4 of 16 wins to starts, 4 of 13 wins to starts on fast dirt, some hideous Grade 1 starts, but some pretty sharp current form for McLaughlin's Godolphin 5 YO Bernadini son.  If he's not on the pace, he's most likely not winning, unless this dog learns new tricks late in his career.

Top Billing, son of Curlin, has an unaccomplished 6 race career so far.  His last race was a deep close and he trained sharply at 4f in :48 flat last time out over BEL.  Don't ignore.

Cat Burglar is criminally low in my handicap but you have to take positions and live with it.  Baffert is shipping in the 5 YO Unbridled son with 9 career starts, 8 of 9 in the money, 8 of 9 in the money on fast dirt, and a lack luster first effort of 2015, although Baffert is 24% on 29 tries in the 2nd effort off a long layoff.  He's put some nice bullets up lately, the most impressive :47 2/5ths in 4F at CD.

Vyjack is an on the pace runner who has cracked more than he's gamely rallied.  He won the G1 Kelso last year in September and not much since.  Handicapping is about current form, pace, class and little else and I don't see it here.

So what to make of this?

I could go easy and play some exacta's:  a 2-5-8-9-10 $2 Box is $40 bucks.  Great if someone other than Commissioner wins, not so great otherwise.

I may play a few Tri's:  Something like this: 5-10 OVER 2-5-8-9-10 OVER 2-5-8-9-10 a $2 bet for $48 or 5-8-10 OVER 2-5-8-9-10 OVER 2-5-8-9-10 a $2 bet for $72.

Have some fun with it friends, I think that this race, as long as it stays at 8 horses, should provide some value.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Derby

Reed Palmer/CD

The Turk is not dead, nor did he give up on the horses.  The Turk is working long hours and going to school at the same time, so while handicapping continues, blogging time is at a premium.  Alas, as the semester comes to a close, and The Turk inches 4 credit hours closer to a Masters Level Education, I return to blogging with today's Kentucky Derby and my annual quest at the holy grail of my betting universe, the Super High Five.  The only horse I really developed an emotional attachment to over the Winter was El Kabeir.  I can't explain it, who can explain their race track romances, but the grey/roan Florida bred son of Scat Daddy, just did it for the inner fan in me.  The inner handicapper, the cold, investment banker side of me is not at all saddened that I won't have the burden of emotional attachment clouding my handicapping.   With three scratches already, El Kabeir, International Star and Stanford, Frammento joins the field at very long odds and most likely the first toss of my handicap.   

Enough rambling, let's get it on! 

Race 11 Churchill Downs

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	Dortmund/8	A++
Place	Carpe Diem/2	A+
Show	American Pharoh/18	A+
Exotic	Materiality/3	B+
Also Ran's	Mubtaahij (Ire)/6	B+
	Firing Line/10	B
	Frosted/15	B
	Upstart/19	B-
	Far Right/20	B-
	Danzig Moon/5	B--
	Itsaknockout/13	B--
	Keen Ice/14	C+
	Mr Z/17	C+
	Bolo/9	C+
	War Story/16	C-
	Ocho Ocho Ocho/1	C-
	Tencendur/4	C-
	Frammento/21	D
	Churchill Downs Race 11: Post Time 6:34 ET	The Kentucky Derby G1
	1 1/4 Miles on Dirt	For 3 YOs and Up

The Super Hi-5 can be a very expensive bet.  A $1 seven horse box would cost $2,520.  I would call it a lottery ticket more than anything.  I've won the Super Hi-5 three times in 20 years, but all with singled huge favorites on top and the 10 cent variety of bet that allowed the investment to be much smaller.  I'm at a point in my handicapping life where I get incredible satisfaction for my handicaps and bets that minimize covers. It that vein of thought I propose the following off of my base handicap:

	Win	Place	Show	Exotic 1	Exotic 2
8	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund
2	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem
18	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh
3	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality
6	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij
10	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line
19	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart
15	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted
20	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right

A one dollar bet on this base bet would cost $768.  That's not happening!  I'll play with it but I'll most likely go with something like this:

	Win	Place	Show	Exotic 1	Exotic 2
8	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund
2	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem
18	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh
3	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality
6	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij
10	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line
19	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart
15	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted
20	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right

This one dollar bet is a more reasonable $205.  

This bet is NOT for everyone.  It's something I do knowing that the odds of hitting are very low. That's not my business model friends, but it's the Derby and I like the challenge.

For fun, I'll play some of my favorites with long shots in an exacta.

Enjoy the day, thanks for reading.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Handicap Grade 1

Welcome Friends to this edition of The Turk and the Little Turk, today featuring the Santa Anita Handicap, or more fondly and widely known as "The Big 'Cap."  Today's handicap is written for The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner, and we thank the fine folks there for allowing us to share our thoughts on today's race.

As a handicapper, you dont get to pick the horses that are running.  Like in cards, you read the hand you are dealt, and when you've analyzed your options, you either fold or keep going. I usually reach the fold point right after building a base handicap, my reordering  of the horses in a fashion similar to how the morning line odds are produced, except instead of odds I use color and I try to build the layers of horses that will come across the finish line, slotting them into a range of possible finishes.  From there I construct a bet.  I try not to have a preconceived notion about the bet until the handicap.  You cant cover everyone.  That's one of the axioms I try to stick with.  I build exotic handicaps, sometimes singling the top horse, and then I cover Place Show and one or two Exotic Slots.  I make a determination on the expense of the bet and what it could possibly return, and then I make an investment decision.

That's the Turk's methodology.  I'd like to tell you some cool cat story of me and my fedora and cigar, looking at copy of the Form, and quickly spitting out winners, but that ain't me, at least anymore.  I spend hours each weekend focused on one 3 or 4 race sequence, sometimes blogging my thoughts on one or all races, sometimes just engrossed in building the Pick 3 or 4.  My kitchen table is my hip spot and coffee instead of bourbon fuels my analytical approach that I spare my readers of.

Bottom line:  What works for me, won't work for you, and there are a lot of different ways to pick the horses.  Its my opinion that methodical players with a system do best in this game.  The system doesn't have to have a bunch of funky acronyms and sound like NASA developed it, but it should be a time honed system.  Anyhow, I'll stop rambling about Process and get on with it.

This is an interesting field.  If you pulled Shared Belief it might not be considered a good Grade 3.  After building the base handicap I came away with one of two bet construction ideas:  Single Shared Belief and try to find value in an exacta or Tri, OR find an alternative to Shared Belief and hit a nice take.  The later is more fun and edgy and I wouldn't want to bore my readers with a 3-5 chalk. Let's get after it!


Shared Belief is a beast, no doubt about that.  The gelded son of Candy Ride has won two straight at SA since the mess that was the Breeders' Cup Classic.  9 of 10 lifetime,  4 of 5 on fast dirt, 1 win at the classic distance on this track, a Trainer/Jock combo that has won 31% of starts at SA in 29 starts. You know what you are getting.  That said, the classic distance should be within his grasp, but not his bred preference.  A 24:73 final 1/4 in the Pacific Classic and a final 25:26 in the BC Classic are OK, the final 1/8 in 11:83 in the San Antonio was pretty nice.



I'm going to skip over the obvious upset candidate in Moreno and focus on Dick Mandella's runner, Catch a Flight (Arg); a lightly raced 5 YO son of Giant Causeway.  7 wins in 12 career starts, jumping up in class from a N1X win in mid February at 1 1/8 at SA.  In contrast his final 1/8th was 12:85 and he won by a game neck.  Mandella and Stevens are 30% together in 33 races at the Great Race Place.  I'm covering him in the Win spot as long as he's at least 10-1 or higher near Post Time.

If I don't cover Catch a Flight in WIN, I'm covering him in PLACE/SHOW with Imperative and Moreno.    Imperative, a $1.3 MM lifetime earner with 3 wins to his resume in 22 starts, 1 of 9 on fast dirt, 0 for 4 at the distance, 0 of 7 at Santa Anita, and 1 win in last 12 starts.  That's pretty sad and yet I have him pretty high in the base handicap in this field.  Trainer Papaprodromou is 17% in the 2nd off a 45 day layoff.  While not a successful winner, he's run over 10 straight G1 or G2 races and he's 6 of 11 in the money.

Moreno, a $1.8 MM earner with 3 wins in 23 career starts, 2 of 18 on fast dirt, 0 of 7 at SA, 0 of 6 at the distance, 3 wins in last 20 starts.  Getting the idea?  Off since the Breeders' Cup Classic.  He is speed and he will be at the front.  Does he carry it all the way?  His record doesn't say he will:  he went 26:18 in final 1/4 in Jockey Club Gold Cup, 13:40 in last 1/8 of Woodward, 25:38 in last 1/4 of Suburban.  Get the idea?

In the next layer back, I have Bronzo (CHI), Hard Aces and Sr. Quisqueyano in the Show/Exotic slot.  The 6 YO Bronzo has 11 career wins in 22 starts, ran a 12:17 final 1/8 in the San Antonio and a 24:65 final 1/4 in the Breeders' Cup Mile.  He;s a good candidate to flip flop in my handicap with Catch a Flight and whichever has the worst odds at Post Time most likely will get covered in Place.

Hard Aces, a 5 YO Hard Spun (how is that even possible?) is 3 of 12 on fast dirt, 5 of 19 lifetime, no runs at the distance and this is first trip to SA.

Sr. Quisqueyano has 8 wins in 29 career starts, no wins at distance, and no starts at SA.  Get the idea? Comes in off 20-1 game win in Sunshine Millions Classic.  Huge class jump for this claimer.

So what do we do with this?

I started by making the best base handicap I could and I'll have faith in it.  With that, I'm tossing Cool Samurai, Diamond Bachelor, Dynamic Sky, Patrioticandproud, You Know I Know and Crimson Giant.  There are some horses that are just as good as the ones I am including, so don't think I have any special sauce:  make your decisions and stick to them.

I'm think I'm going Exacta only and I'm going to want to keep my investment reasonable as I had a hard time feeling optimistic about the field's chances.

$2:  5-12-11 OVER 5-12-10-6-11-13-3=$36

I'll slip in or out of the top spot at post time based on tote board odds and I'll keep my options open.

I think you could reasonably drop the 3 horse that drops the bet to $30.  Depending on who wins the bet should at least cover the investment if Shared Belief and Moreno finish 1-2 and it could pay very nicely if value hits the board.

Have fun friends!  Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park

Lea winning the Commonwealth G3- Reed Palmer Photography

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to start by thanking the good folks at The Thorofan for allowing this hack internet handicapper to write for the Handicapper's Corner this weekend for the Donn Handicap, a Grade 1, $500,000 purse race that for me, and most handicappers, is the first truly special race of the new race season for colts, fillies, horses and mares  4 years old and up.

In a ten horse field you might be able to make a case for six of the horses here to win the race, some of them at very good odds of 6-1 or greater.  I'm thinking the top spot will be pretty chalky, but that doesn't mean the exotic bets can't have some value.  Let's build a handicap and then figure out a bet structure.

This is always a challenging time of the year as a handicapper as its sometimes hard to gauge which of the runners coming off of breaks or making their second race off a break will be ready.  I lean heavy on the work tab and recent race form to guide me.

Let's watch a couple of recent races at Gulfstream Park, the G3 Hal's Hope and the Sunshine Millions Classic (and lets use that term Classic in this case loosely) to get a feel for some of the key runners, as well as the Clark Handicap, the last good Grade 1 race for the handicap division held the day after Thanksgiving at Churchill Downs.

Hal's Hope G3 GP 1 Mile





Sunshine Millions Classic $250K GP 1 1/8



Clark Handicap G1 CD 1 1/8



Glean from these what you like.  I like to evaluate form, trip, compete level in the stretch, and strength of field.



I like Lea quite a bit and the home bred came off the injured reserve looking very sharp with one burst run to take the Hal's Hope in early January. Trainer Mott's is 34% on the second start off a long break and 30% won last start.  7 wins in 13 starts, 3 for 3 at GP and 3 for 3 on fast dirt.  I think I may single.

I'm leaning towards East Hall for Place which would bring real value to bet.  Trainer Kaplan's runner wasn't exactly driving for Place in Sunshine Millions Classic and barely held off Catholic Cowboy and lost to an inferior horse. The four year old seems to be improving although he is winless in three starts at the distance, 13 of 20 in the money and $772,000 in winnings for the 4 YO gelding. Feast or famine, he could easily finish outside top four.

A more likely horse is one of three Trainer Pletcher entries, Constitution, last year's Florida Derby winner.  Pletcher has been bringing him back easily since his return to running after injury in the Florida Derby took him off the Triple Crown trail.  I'd like to see him do a bit more but I do like the bullet at 5f on January 26th but I still need to see something before I swoon.

Commissioner is a colt who looks the part yet doesn't have great results and hasn't won in 13 months, a 75K Optional Claimer at this distance on this track.  Johnny V is up for Pletcher, a combo that wins 30% of the time at GP.  Not sold yet on him either.

Protonico, Pletcher's third entry, seems like the sleeper to me and may be worth a win bet flyer.  Training regularly since the Clark H., he has flashed lots of potential.

Sloane Avenue is a wildcard colt and the 4 YO Candy Ride (Arg) from Apt (AP Indy) has the bloodlines to be something, even though that something is hard to figure out.  Two low level Kempton wins at one mile in RH direction and he does have a LH win as well.  Would be a shocker for big value.

I'm tossing Elnaawi and Prayers for Relief at my own peril but you can't cover everyone. I'm not accusing anyone of anything, but I would like to see the journeyman Prayers for Relief retired soon. It's been a looooooooonnnnnggggg time since he won and at 36 starts and nearly $2.0 MM of earnings I think he deserves a pension.  I'm not taking Catholic Cowboy or Blue Note very seriously.

So what to do with all this?

I'm leaning towards a simple Trifecta with Lea singled on top and quite a bit of coverage just below:

 $2 Trifecta:  4 OVER 1-2-3 OVER 1-2-3 5-7-9-10 =$36 bet

$2 Super Hi 5:  4 OVER 1-2-3 OVER 1-2-3 OVER 2-3-7-8 OVER 2-3-5-7-8-10= $120 bet

I'm not sure what I'm going to do yet but with the base handicap done, I can use the toteboard as well as observations from the paddock and post parade to finalize my bet.

Have fun with this friends!

Turk Out.