The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Fit to Fight, 1984 and last NY Handicap Triple Champ
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing blog focused exclusively on handicapping and bet construction. I'd like to thank The Thorofan through their Handicapper's Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts, derivatives of handicapping methods I've learned over the years from the writings of Tom Ainsile (Richard Carter) and Brad Free primarily.
That handsome fella is Fit to Fight, the fourth and last winner of the New York Handicap Triple, a three race sequence that included the Metropolitan Handicap, the Brooklyn Handicap and the Suburban Handicap. Obviously it would be hard to win now that the super geniuses moved the Met Mile onto the same card as the Brooklyn Handicap.
Would it be so hard to create a NY Series with a race on Wood Memorial Day, the Suburban and then the Woodward? Racing in my opinion does little to excite the fans. I've had a hard time watching some of the major televised events over past six months because every telecast eventually leads to an American Pharoah exposition. Even a Triple Crown was squandered by the people that market this sport. This isn't the type of blog that gets into these sort of issues, but it doesn't mean The Turk isn't wildly frustrated by the lack of progress in making this sport less of a cultural backwater.
I always like to get a visual look at the track and the runners recent efforts. Here we have Shaman Ghost looking very strong at 1 1/2 miles over Turco Bravo and Samraat (yawn).
Stephen Foster with Eagle just missing for Place and Effinex in a forgettable trip.
Noble Bird in the Met Mile. I'm posting just to drool over Frosted again.
Sometimes the video/visual handicapping helps, other times it just provides a fun distraction from the task at hand: handicapping a classic distance handicap. I'm going with Eagle as a very tepid chalk.I could make a case for Shaman Ghost or Effinex but I'm going with Eagle on a driving finish from more than three lengths off the lead. Negatives: First BEL start, no starts at the distance. Positives include 13 of 15 in the money on fast dirt, a smokin' 436 Tomlin on off tracks and some consistent game efforts of late. I fully expect him to be in the money but his drive could come up short.
Throw out the Effinex effort at the Stephen Foster. Defending champion here, has tussled and won against some true Grade 1 horses, with 2 wins in 8 starts at BEL, 5 of 6 in the money at the distance, capable in the slop. Trainer Jenkens, uncoupled with his Shaman Ghost entry, has Mike Smith up here. Will he go on the lead or try to give him one big run is a wildcard for me.
Shaman Ghost ran a hell of a Brooklyn. Cutting back a full 1/4 mile, this Ontario bred represents a good price and a chance to make a nice win bet return. 5 of 6 in the money on fast dirt, a big wet track Tomlinson, 2 of 2 in the money at the distance, 2 of 2 in the money at BEL, 7 of 10 in the money lifetime and a :59 3/5ths bullet 6 days ago. Light the fuse!
Noble Bird I don't think is a win candidate. Very inconsistent, with alternating good and bad efforts. His putrid Met Mile came off a career best 110 Beyer Pimlico Special.
I'm not that high on Mubtaahij: He made $2.0 MM in earnings for finishing well back of California Chrome in Dubai World Cup.
First time lasix, a 20% win angle for Trainer McLaughlin. I'm not a big fan of the the first effort off the heavy travel to Dubai.
Seven year old Turco Bravo (Chi) is the wily old veteran of the group. 51 career starts, 4 straight 90+ Beyers, 7 of 8 in the money at the distance but slow. Possible he hits the exotics.
I'm tossing Samraat just because you can't cover everyone (unless you're a hack). Slow and his career Beyer was two years ago as Place to Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial. I'm not sure he's run a good race since early 2014. I'm tossing Tapin Mojo who enters off a $12,500 claimer. A sign o' the times.
I have no idea what I'm doing from a bet perspective yet but all things equal my bet will match my handicap.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing blog started in 2008 before the micro blog, the Twitter 140 character blast that made long winded air bags, errr, bloggers like me less relevant.
I'm not a fan of the short blast; I like to ramble, I like to share race videos, race charts and past performances with my readers in an attempt to talk about handicapping in a Tom Ainsile/Brad Free style that my methods are based on.
I've studied analytics and algorithms but at the end of the day, class, conditions and pace usually dominates my selections. My readers don't read The Turk for the human angle, fascinating stories or interviews, or the latest racing news. I cater to a degenerate crowd that would prefer I just posted by winner in the first sentence so they could read it and move on to the next blogger in an attempt to ignore the handicapping and jump right to the bet selection. What you do with this blog is your business, I do this for the love of racing and the puzzle solving euphoria that comes from assembling winning tickets.
The Turk has really focused his handicapping this year on 4 year old's running routes on dirt. It's my sweet spot, and quite frankly, those horses are my favorites. I love the older horses, not yet wanted in the breeding shed, gelded, with lots of past performance to guide me and a sporting quality I really am pulled towards. I completely ignored the Triple Crown folly this year, and only now in July do I even want to start looking at 3 YOs as I prep for Breeders' Cup weekend, my highlight weekend of racing every year. Today's Mother Goose will give me a good feel for the serious Eastern US filly group. My quick review of the past performances is wow: A Curlin, two Bernadini's, one by Rachel Alexandra running in Stonestreet Stables silks, and just a pretty classy high end group. The race fan in me is excited by a Rachel's Valentina, above. I still get goosbumps thinking about Rachel when she ran by me at the 1/16th pole on the way to winning the Woodward.
One of my things is I don't really read racing news stories, especially puffy piece stuff about the horse, the connections, etc. I don't like the bias of these articles seeping into my process. I'm OK if I sound weird, to me these horses are fresh runners, I've never read about them, never watched them run, never bet on them. As bizarre as it reads, my best ROI is on these sort of races.
The weather should be beautiful at post time and I would expect the dirt to be fast. As always, make sure you check the scratches and changes before plopping your money down at the windows. Let's get it on!
Let's get a feel for who are the players here.
The Acorn Stakes at BEL at 1 Mile. Off the Tracks a game place after a tough inside trip.
The Kentucky Oaks 1 1/8 Miles at CD. Rachel's Valentina gets smoked in the stretch by Lewis Bay as well as the winner of this and the Acorn, Cathryn Sophia
Such good racing, explosive stretch drives. My initial thoughts are:
I'm leaning towards Off the Tracks as my tepid chalk. A game place in the Acorn after a lousy trip. Jockey Johnny V jumps off of her and J. Ortiz is up for Trainer Pletcher. 4 of 4 in the money on fast dirt with a career high 96 Beyer, no wins at the distance or BEL. 3 weeks after Acorn she's back, I'm guessing Pletcher knows what he's doing. We'll find out.
Lewis Bay is back since last running on Kentucky Oaks day and Trainer Brown is 28% off the layoff. 4 of 4 in the money on fast dirt with a 91 career high Beyer, cutting back a 1/16th off last few races, and 2 of 2 in the money at BEL.
Rachel's Valentina wins the sexy award but sexy doesn't win races. I'm having a hard time getting the image of her fading badly down the stretch of the Oaks out of my mind. If you want to see a bit more competitive fire, look at her effort in the Ashland, a bizarre finish as well.
The quality is a bit sketchy after these three. Lightstream is on the outside for Trainer Brian Lynch, 2 of 2 on fast dirt with a race best Career best 103 Beyer and 3 of 3 lifetime. She's stretching out from a 7F comfort zone and is a G3 winner. She's in the deeper end of the pool today.
I'm not sure what I'm doing from a bet construction perspective. If I bet, and I'm not sure right now, I'll guard against over covering and I'll follow my base handicap fairly closely. I'm thinking 2-5 OVER 2-5-6-7-3 OVER 5-6-7-3. Something along those lines but even that feels a bit too safe. I'll think about it after looking at tote board and scratches and make a decision then.
Have fun with the racing and the handicapping.
My last note: There is a wonderful effort underway to bring help to 43 horses found to have been abandoned by their owner in Kentucky. Just an amazing effort and if you are interested in helping, please follow this link
Dear friends, thank you for reading The Turk and the Little Turk.
The Ogden Phipps. It's not an easy family for most of us to relate to. Old money, power, privilege. Pull back the curtain and you'll find arts patronage, philanthropy and horses, some wonderful, incredible horses. Personal Ensign. Buckpasser. Easy Goer.
We may not be able to relate to the incredible wealth, but the family ties, the love of horse racing, if you are reading this you can relate to those qualities.
Today brings an end to silly season, the Triple Crown race. I sat out this year and don't feel worse for it. My personal rant is the Belmont should be reduced by at least a quarter of a mile when a Triple Crown is not on the line. There is no reason to make these horses run that distance. I know, Turk, what about Marathons? It's a stupid distance and I'm not going to change my mind about that. Anyway, no one listens to The Turk, or fans for that matter. I applaud the work of The Thorofan and other fan first organizations, but this sport is seemingly unable to get out of their own way. I digress again.
I have focused this season on my first love, older horses being campaigned on dirt. I find the stories and the past performances of a five or six year old so much more interesting than a three year old colt who with a little bit of success, will disappear to the breeding shed. Anyhow, let's get after this 1 and 1/16 mile race on dirt for fillies and mares, 4 years old and up, the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps.
Let's take a look at Curalina/5 and Sheer Drama/7
The Grade 1 La Troien at CDon fast dirt at 1 1/16 miles.
The 1 mile Ruffian at BEL with Carrumba/1 and Cavorting/4
The G1 Madison at 7F at Kee with Stopchargingmaria/2 and Sheer Drama/7
1 1/16 mile Apple Blossom G1 at OP with Forever Unbridled/6
I'm thinking about singling Curalina who I think stands out even in a field of 7 with 5 horses you could make a legitimate win argument for. A driving win on Kentucky Oaks day, 5 wins in 8 starts on fast dirt and 8 of 8 in the money on fast dirt, and 9 of 9 lifetime in the money from the 4 YO daughter of Curlin. Johnny V up after jumping off of Forever Unbridled for this. Pletcher is 30% in 2nd races off a long layoff.
Stopchargingmaria and Cavorting are a blanket finish in my rankings. Stopchargingmaria has been on the shelf since early April, and Pletcher is 22% off a >60 day break. Very consistent. No wins at the distance, no wins at BEL, 12 of 15 in the money lifetime.
Cavorting ran a spectacular 1 mile Ruffian here in May. 75% win rate at BEL, 60% winner on fast dirt, 8 of 11 lifetime in the money. The 4 YO Bernadini has been improving on the stretch out but this is first attempt at the distance and is a 1/16 longer than previous efforts.
Forever Unbridled is also off a break since mid April, and Trainer Stewart is 14% off a 30-60 day break. Training sharply and seems to still be improving. Would be a huge statement but I'm more intrigued by Place than Win for this 4 YO Unbridled Song operating in diamond miner, Charles Fipke's, silks.
Florida bred 6 YO Mare Sheer Drama has 7 wins in 22 career starts and is 15 of 18 in the money on fast dirt, 5 of 6 in the money at the distance and winless at BEL. Was really coming late in Breeders' Cup Distaff and upset StopchargingMaria at 9-1 at 7F in April, followed up by a flat La Troien as the chalk in May. Which runner will show up for Trainer Fawkes.
I think this is a fantastic field and a challenging bet construction. I may single Curalina and look to build some exactas and Tri's covering down to Sheer Drama and leaving Carumba and Desert Valley on the outside looking in.
Take a moment to remember Mr Ogden Phipps, whose son, Dinny, passed away just recently as well. The end of a horse racing era.
Turk Out!
April 23, 2002
Ogden Phipps, Racer of Horses, Dies at 93
By JOSEPH DURSO
Ogden Phipps, the financier and sportsman who became the pillar of horse racing in New York in the middle years of the 20th century, died yesterday at a hospital in West Palm Beach, Fla. He was 93.
Mr. Phipps was the central figure in a family dynasty built on steel, investment banking and the breeding and racing of horses. He was the grandson of Henry Phipps, the partner of the steel magnate Andrew Carnegie; the son of Henry Carnegie Phipps and Gladys Livingston Mills Phipps (his mother owned the Wheatley Stable); and the father of Ogden Mills Phipps, known as Dinny, who succeeded him as chairman of the Jockey Club and master of the Phipps racing stable.
In the investment banking business, he rose to become a partner in Smith Barney, and from 1958 to 1978 he was chairman of the Bessemer Trust Company, the private bank that held the family fortune.
In the horse racing business, he became pre-eminent as the owner of numerous national champions, including Buckpasser, Personal Ensign, Easy Goer and Bold Ruler, the sire of Secretariat. As chairman of the Jockey Club for 10 years, he was the chief guardian of America's racing rules and bloodlines.
He was raised into a family of wealth and into the elegant life that ruled society early in the century. His grandfather used to lease an entire railway train to carry members of the family, their servants and pets to Palm Beach for the winter and back to Long Island in the spring. The family once owned 28 miles of Florida coastline between Miami and Palm Beach, as well as large tracts along Biscayne Boulevard and much of the city of Palm Beach itself. And several times the Phipps family was reported to have made large loans to the City of Miami during the Depression.
Yet on the toss of a coin, the family once lost the chance to become the owner of the greatest racehorse of his time. It was a sporting toss: Helen Tweedy was the owner of the mare Somethingroyal; Mrs. Phipps and her son, Ogden, owned the stallion Bold Ruler. They flipped a coin to see who would get the first foal of the mating. The first foal, who went to the Phippses, was a forgettable filly. The second, who went to Mrs. Tweedy, was a colt: Secretariat.
But the Phipps family was rarely short of horses that could run and win, nor of trainers who would make certain that they did, from Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons to Bill Winfrey to Shug McGaughey. And they reached peaks of performance, as they did in 1988, when they had 35 winners from 87 starts and earned $5.8 million in purses.
When the Eclipse Awards were voted that year, five of racing's highest honors went to members of the Phipps entourage: Easy Goer was named the nation's best 2-year-old colt; Personal Ensign, who finished her career undefeated, the outstanding filly or mare; McGaughey the top trainer; and Mr. Phipps both the outstanding owner and the outstanding breeder.
Most of the family's racing operations were directed from Barn 20 at Belmont Park, where the famous Phipps colors flew high: black with a cherry-red cap. But the family had been a powerful element in racing in North America and Europe for many years.
The family fortune resulted from the boyhood friendship in what is now Pittsburgh between Andrew Carnegie, the son of a Scottish immigrant weaver, and Henry Phipps, the son of a Scottish immigrant cobbler.
When the boys were in their 20's, Carnegie bought a piece of the Kloman steel forge and gave Henry Phipps half-interest for $800 and bookkeeping work. In time, the company became Carnegie Steel and then United States Steel, and when they sold the company to J. P. Morgan in 1901, Henry Phipps left with $50 million.
Henry Phipps devoted the rest of his life to philanthropy and managing the family fortune. According to his grandson, Ogden Mills Phipps, Henry Phipps created the first low-income public housing in New York City. The nonprofit Phipps Houses still owns and manages apartments in Manhattan, Queens and the Bronx, the grandson said.
The Bessemer Trust Company was founded in 1907 with the proceeds of the sale of United States Steel. For its first 68 years, Bessemer handled only the accounts of the descendants of Henry Phipps. In a 1995 study of Bessemer, The American Banker said that by 1975 the Phipps family assets in the company were worth $1 billion.
Ogden Phipps was born in New York on Nov. 26, 1908. He graduated from St. Paul's in New Hampshire and then Harvard in 1931. During World War II, he was a Navy officer, rising to the rank of commander.
He was raised in a sporting atmosphere half a century before off-track betting in New York transformed the nature of racing. His mother and father founded the Wheatley Stable and stud. His mother owned Bold Ruler, the stallion who became the dominant sire in the world for lines of racehorses distinguished for their speed.
Mr. Phipps excelled at golfing, boating and tennis and won the United States tennis championship seven times in the 1930's and 1940's and the British amateur title in 1949. He was inducted into the International Court Tennis Hall of Fame in 2001.
His first stakes victory as an owner came in 1936 when his homebred White Cockade won the Withers. The best thoroughbred he ever raced was probably Buckpasser, who won 25 of 31 starts and finished out of the money only once. In recent years, Mr. Phipps spent his winters living off Palm Beach on his yacht named Buckpasser.
In 1937 he married Lillian Bostwick, an equestrienne who also drove trotting horses. Her brother, Pete Bostwick, was an outstanding steeplechase jockey and polo player. Another brother, Dunbar, was her partner in owning trotters, and together they raced the legendary Noble Hanover.
Lillian Phipps died in 1987. Mr. Phipps is survived by two sons, Robert L. Phipps, of Ridgeland, S.C., and Ogden Mills Phipps, of Palm Beach; a daughter, Cynthia Phipps, of New York; seven grandchildren; three great-grandchildren; and a sister, Sonia Seherr-Thoss of Litchfield, Conn. Cynthia Phipps owns Saarland, a strong contender for the Kentucky Derby a week from Saturday.
Mr. Phipps's sentimental favorite was Personal Ensign, who won all 13 of her races. In 1988, after a seven-month layoff, she won five Grade I stakes in a row and outran the sprint champion Gulch in the Whitney. She defeated Winning Colors, the filly who had won the Kentucky Derby, in the Maskette Stakes at Belmont Park and again in an electrifying duel in the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Churchill Downs to complete her career with a perfect record.
Personal Ensign, apparently beaten in the homestretch by Winning Colors, suddenly spurted back into contention and won the duel by a short nose. It was, Mr. Phipps said later, ''a terrifying experience.''
In recounting Mr. Phipps's last years, Ogden Mills Phipps told The Associated Press yesterday: ''He loved the breeding side, the foals and the mares. He went every 10 days this winter to see his new crop of 2-year-olds. He got more excited by the breeding side the older he was.''
Thank you to the wonderful people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts today on the Grade 2 Ruffian, a 1 mile dirt race at Belmont Park for Fillies and Mares, 4 years old and up.
My first race track romance was with Ruffian. As a young boy, like many boys my age in an era before instant information, we waited every week for our copies of Sports Illustrated to arrive by mail. I never saw Ruffian run, but I read about her, was captivated by her, and ultimately horrified at her sudden and gruesome death. I'm still not, some 40 years later, able to think about Ruffian without getting emotional. Her death, like the death of George Washington and Tuscan Evening, resonated with me at a very deep level, the level in my soul that makes me a fan and lover of these animals and not someone who can purely think of them as a post position and a price. It's a beautiful and cruel sport all wrapped into one.
I'm not embarrassed to say I'm not really a very good blogger. The Turk is celebrating his 8th year of hack handicapping and poorly written sentences, and my traffic in 8 years is about the traffic the good blogs get over a Breeders' Cup weekend. No matter, I love talking about the horses and my ROI speaks for me when I can't string the words together properly. I wish I had the time, and talent to write like this piece I found about Ruffian. This blog entry at The Vault: Horse Racing Past and Present is real writer's articulate retrospective on one of the finest race horses ever. As promised, I'm getting emotional talking about Ruffian, and I'll shut up now and get back to the business at hand! Rest in Peace Ruffian and Trainer Frank Whiteley Jr.
I wish there was more business to be at hand. Today we have a 6 horse field and you could make a legitimate case for 5 horses to win this race. While it's a wonderful field, I just wish it was more than six horses. As a race track investor, the reward must be worth the risk, and I can find much easier marks on any card on any day of the week than this race. That said, I like to handicap and assemble bets, and while I may not ultimately play it, I follow the same consistent steps for every two part handicap/bet construction and I have found that it is that consistent approach to interpreting the past performances and the race charts that brings me success.
Let's get after it!
Right off the bat, keep your eyes on the weather. It's going to pour on Friday and maybe it will dry out by Saturday for a very fast track. If it goes sloppy, our field has 7 total wet starts, with 2 wins both by Carrumba, so that may change thinking slightly at post time. Our field has a top Beyer of 100 by Cavorting with a variance of (16) Beyer points down to our toss horse, Welcome Aboard. The Beyer didn't toss the 6 year old, her wretched 5 year old campaign did.
I think Carrumba is the logical choice: 3 wins in last four starts, in the money in all 7 lifetime starts, 2 wins at the distance, 2 wins in 2 tries on off track, 2 wins in 3 starts at BEL, a Grade 3 winner, the Phipps Stable (Barbara Phipps-Janney, owner of Ruffian) runner looks the part of pure class.
I like Spelling Again as a contrarian choice; owned by Buffalo Sabres Hockey Hall of Fame member and one of the true gentleman of our era. She'll be near the front and looking to fire off of speed. I'm not sure the pace scenario will set up for her, but I like this mare quite a bit.
Cavorting makes another excellent argument for the Win. Her last four starts she's been stretching out at the 7 furlong wire, and the 1 panel extra distance may just be what she wants. She runs against Grade 1 caliber horses consistently and she has a Grade 1 win. No wins yet at the distance for the 4 YO, 2 wins at BEL, and she had much success at Saratoga last year, something I generally dismiss. 5 wins in 10 starts.
Include Betty is also a graded stakes regular and Grade 2 winner. Trainer Proctor is 19% off a 61-180 day layoff, I think she needs another start after this.
There is nothing to dislike about Calamity Kate, you just can't cover them all and the Yes It's True 4 YO with Johnny V up fell off my list a bit. She seems to still not be able to rate very well and with a cut back in distance I think the thought is to steal the race from the front and hold on. I'm not sure, its very possible.
As you can see, this is a jam packed quality field. Be careful in a race like this over covering and over investing. Calamity Kate, Spelling Again and Welcome Aboard will have big prices come post time. If you need action, play Calamity Kate and Spelling Again to Win or Place, or toss them into an exacta box on top of Cavorting and Carrumba.
That good looking four year old is Blofeld, the son of my favorite thoroughbred of the past ten years, Quality Road. Why was Quality Road my favorite? Who can say why, he just was! I don't think he's the best horse in the race, but this gambler is looking for value and I like his chances at 4-1 or so.
The Turk comes out of his horse racing slumber each year around this time. The handicap division races leading up to this point were a mixed bag of ho hum and exciting. The Kentucky Derby prep races don't do much for me. I'll get hot and heavy into the racing cards after this weekend's Oaklawn Handicap, as well as the Arkansas Derby, my favorite and one of the most indicative Derby prep races.
My first impression at looking at the Oaklawn Handicap card was eh. It takes something special to get my horse racing fan's blood flowing, and it takes something subtle to get my horse racing handicappers mind intrigued. I'm not sure I see either in this collection of runners, perhaps a lack of real stars outside of California Chrome in the handicap division. When you think of possible stars, Effinex is a minor star by now, I think Blofeld could freak out some fast 1 mile races, but Upstart is very intriguing, with a nice start in 2016 with a win in the Razorback G3 here in mid March. "Absolutely smoked" in the Kentucky Derby is on many a resume of great and exciting Handicap Division stars. Here's hoping we find some stars.
Let's get after it!
I'll be honest, I think I'm a pretty good handicapper but I don't have much of an opinion on this race after studying the card. I don't pay much attention to Morning Line odds but I'm guessing my handicap follows the ML's pretty closely. Effinex would be considered chalk, but not indelible ink. If he goes into the gate at 2-1 or closer to even money would it surprise anyone? As a handicapper if you feel strongly about the chalk then don't let that scare you off, just single him in the win spot and look for value in Place and Show. Alternatively, cover him in a small group in Win and Place and cast a slightly wider net hoping that the longer tote board odds can come up and take it at the line.
My top four could have a blanket over them, maybe a 1.5-2.5 panel blanket, but they are very close. I am tepidly picking Blofeld to win his first race at the distance: Trainer Pletcher brings him in on a 31-60 day layoff, something Pletcher wins 24% of the time and off a win, something Pletcher wins 28% of the time. I think he'll stalk what should be plenty of front end speed and fire off of that.
The most likely winner is Effienx, rebounding after a fast start/slow finish in Santa Anita Handicap.
2 wins at the distance, 33% win rate on fast dirt after 18 starts, 33% win rate lifetime after 21 starts, the 5 YO will carry the heaviest weight at 121 pounds but don't get too emotional about that. Trainer Jerkens had him running two fast works at BEL leading up to this. He's the best in this field, more than capable. I'm covering W-P-and maybe S.
Upstart comes in off a win in the Razorback. 36% win rate on fast dirt on 11 tries, no wins at the distance. The Razorback was a really nice win and he may press into the top two on the toteboard by post time. In my handicap he's slowing as the closers are passing. Place or Show seems very reasonable.
I like Financial Modeling. I'll really like him in G3 and G2 races. He's had some time to rest and train off the Donn. He'll be pressing the pace and I think he'll be fading at the end. 2 of 4 at the distance, 3 wins in 7 fast dirt starts and 5 of 6 in the money in 2015. $220,000 of winnings in 9 starts gives you the feeling he's in the deep end of the pool here. Trainer Cox takes him into his barn from Trainer Brown and Cox is a 20% winner on 101 starts first time out. Cox is a real rising star with a dazzling 27% win rate in Graded Stakes and 30% of routes.
I like Oaklawn journeyman, the 8 YO Domain's Rap, to possibly bring value to a winning ticket. I think he's got a shot at Show or 4th. You know he'll run a low to mid 90's Beyer and he'll run the whole race. You never know when horses start to get eased who will slip in. I don't think much of Carve until he shows some better form. His name and his rep will be bet harder than it should be which should ease the tote board a bit.
If I was playing the race it would most likely just be a simple 10 cent trifecta: 1-8-6 OVER 1-8-6-4 OVER 1-6-4-7 OVER 6-4-7-2-5 for $7.70. I don't really like those bets from a value perspective so If forced to be aggressive I'd go: 8 OVER 1-6-4-7 OVER 1-6-4-7 a $1 bet for $12.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. Let me start by thanking the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today at the Handicappers Corner.
Shared Belief. 2015 Winner of the Santa Anita Handicap, The 4 YO Candy Ride son was as beautiful, as he was impressive as a runner. These horses, so powerful, can also be so fragile. I still mourn the death of Shared Belief this past December, and selfishly I wish he was alive to bring some life to a handicap division that lacks star power and 100+ Beyers.
Racing will never escape these deaths, it's a part of the sport. In a game where many people reduce these animals to a number and a price, this handicapper is proud to say I'm a horse racing fan first, and a degenerate gambler second, and The Turk and the Little Turk always remembers the fallen.
Today's version of the Big Cap may not have Shared Belief, but it does boast NY bred Effinex, with Mike Smith up, the winner of the last the three editions of this race. Not too shabby. Let's get it on!
I was never that high on Effinex, perhaps it was the breeding, but $2.0 million dollars in winnings later and the 5 YO son of Mineshaft appears to be peaking. Effinex had a very strong end of 2015, with a win in the G1 Clark, a strong Breeders' Cup Classic Place and a G2 Suburban win. Trainer Jerkens is 23% off the long layoff, and this was a long layoff since The Clark at Churchill the day after Thanksgiving, but he's training well. I think the race is his to loose and he's a candidate to single. Carrying top weight of 123.
Just behind Effinex I see a group of horses blanketed together, all with warts. Cyrus Alexander has been training well for Jerry Hollendorfer. Hollendorfer has worked nicely in a progression of 4f,5f,6f and 7f one week apart for the last month. The 4 YO is 9 of 12 lifetime in the money, 7 of 9 in the money on fast dirt, 7 of 9 in the money at Santa Anita, and trying the distance for the first time. His 98 Beyer lifetime best isn't good enough but something tells me this 4 YO is about to stage a second act to his career. I guess we'll see. This is a good time to take a look at the G2 San Antonio, where Cyrus Alexander had no rally and finished well up the track.
Hard Aces and Donworth are in the mix with Cyrus Alexander. Both horses have run well at Santa Anita, but I don't get the feeling that any of them can win. Donworth has never tried the distance, Hard Aces has one once at the distance, a big Gold Cup win by a nose over Hoppertunity. The wild card here is Imperative, who I have in the Show and Exotic spot but I'll be covering all the way up to win most likely. 3 of 29 lifetime wins, 1 of 16 lifetime wins on fast dirt, 0 of 6 at the distance and 0 of 11 at Santa Anita. That is an ugly stat line, yet the San Antonio was there for him and he owns the race's second best lifetime Beyer. The 6 YO Bernadini seems to be on the upswing. He's too low on my scale at B- and you have to respect this truly erratic feast or famine runner.
General a Rod isn't that interesting to me except the race is one of the few big Grade 1 races that Trainer Todd Pletcher has never one. I'm not a hater or a fan of Trainer Pletcher and I'm not surprised that this one has eluded him. It's a California thing. The horse is a name, names attract money, and that's good when you don't think much of the chances.
Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk, now in our 8th season of providing not much service to very few readers. I'd like to thank The Thorofan Handicapper's Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.
The Donn! The Grade 1 Older Horse Division race that for me is the kickoff to any new racing season.The Turk tries not to get too wrapped up in the Derby Trail as I like the older horses and they fit my handicapping style better. Why? Data. I look at the past performances of a race like The Donn and I see data, I see 10 plus races of history, stats, pace, information.
What did I see on the Past Performances for this race? Not much I liked, or better said, a very deep field that the degenerate gambler in me would normally pass on. You can find easy marks on any card at any field, so why bet a stacked field like this? Why does any track investor bet? For a return on investment. It comes down to do I like a horse or two at a price that the betting public laid off a bit? I don't need crazy long shots, that's for frat boys and movies, I need 4-6 to 1 odds and an exotic view on the race.
Do I have it here? I dunno. I'm doing this handicap and bet preparation on a Wednesday night before I know if there are scratches/changes or track conditions less that fast dirt. I intentionally handicap without the knowledge of morning lines because that's bias I don't need. Let me hit you with my thoughts and give you my opinion with the cavet that if I did bet this race it would be 10 mins to post after I watched the tote board a bit.
Let's go!
These two videos give you a pretty good feel for Gulfstream Park combatants Madefromlucky (who skipped the Hal's Hope), Mshawish (who skipped Harlan's Holiday for the Cigar Mile) Valid, and Mexikoma (who skipped the Hal's Hope for the Sunshine Millions Classic).
I think money will flow to Keen Ice and why not? Well, Trainer Roman's is 6% off a 61-180 day break, with 93 chances, and the horse, for is $1.8 Million in earnings, has 2 wins in 13 starts, 1 win in 9 starts in 2015 and only 4 of 9 in the money. Lightning may drop on me from the heavens, but I put no stock in what a horse does at Saratoga so quite frankly I don't care that he won the Traver's. Bet him, go ahead, I may be wrong but I'm laying off the win for Keen Ice. I'm not even covering him in the money right now.
It's a great time to get on my soap box about making decisions. I don't know if I'm right about Keen Ice, but I have to make an informed decision otherwise when I make my bet selection up I'll cover everyone because I've tossed no one. Have some conviction, take a stand.
My tepid chalk is Valid. The 6 YO is 10 of 12 at GP, 4 of 4 in the money at the distance, 9 wins in 28 tries on fast dirt. The jock colony shunned him with Saez jumping off for Pletcher's Itsaknockout, Might be too much for him, he did get caught at 1 mile in the Hal's Hope, but he's game and he'll be driving, Win, Place or Show.
I feel pretty similar with Mshawish. I have no reason to not expect him to be driving at the end, but this is a new distance for the 1 time winner on dirt.
Thinking of the pace, I can see Mott's Closing Bell closing hard in the last 1/16th. The numbers say no, but he's been training well and my only concern is speed. Guess we will find out.
Madefromlucky/Financial Modeling and even Closing Bell I'm tossing a blanket over. I think all will be moving forward except Financial Modeling who may drop sooner but will turn some fast panels early.
Itsaknockout is more than capable. I most likely have underestimated him and he should most likely be in my Place or Show spot.
It's rare for me to truly toss anyone from the exotic ticket but this is a solid field and I have no strong feelings in any one way.
For the sake of the readers I'll make a theoretical bet based on this base handicap.
I'm going to place a $1 Trifecta which will cost $29 on:
4-3 OVER 4-3-5-7-2 OVER 4-5-7-2-8. I brought Itsaknockout up but left Keen Ice on the outside. I have two of my Also Ran's in my Bet Selection, Keen Ice and Mexikoma, just a reflection of how I'm feeling about the pace.
I think this is a dog with fleas so I'm leaving my remaining $71 dollars in my pocket which is sometimes a gambler's best bet.