REST IN PEACE EDDIE LOGAN

98 year old Eddie Logan was an American character if there ever was one. Santa Anita's mainstay has left us, and his passing, as was Joe Hirsch's, makes the Turk feel like horse racing has a long way to go to get back to where it once belonged.

Rest in Peace Eddie.

The Nomination is In: January 31, 2009

The Santa Monica Handicap, G1 at the Great Race Place, Santa Anita in beautiful Arcadia, CA. 7 Furlongs on what is called "Pro Ride", fake dirt that maybe is better for the horses, maybe isn't, depending on if you are a Euro who likes to win "dirt" races in the United States or not. For Fillies and Mares 4 YO and up.

The Turk apologizes for posting three times for three seperate races. Generally he likes to combine them into one post, but today's been a rather odd flowing day for him, and quite honestly I didn't expect to have the time to handicap all three graded stakes that had my attention.

Today is January 31st. Monday is Groundhog Day. I am a rather hearty Northern Climate guy, but this has been one brutal winter. I'm in the green energy business, so I love global warming because it is making my company lots and lots of money, but you couldn't convince me that the orb is heating up. The two images I present of winter show the joy and sadness of living in the north.

That's the Little Turk, doing what he does best, love life.

And that is Kay, The Turk Clan foundation Weimaraner. She does not like to do her business in the snow. I digress.



It's really a coin toss between Indian Blessing and Ventura. I went with Indian Blessing today because I'm thinking she has better current form. As a live long shot, I like Baroness Thatcher. I like the work, I like the first time blinkers, and it seems to me that she could be there with the best Beyer of her career today.

I'm staying on the sidelines for this one. I don't really see a betting opportunity I like right now, but as always watch the board and look for value against your scorecard.

The Nomination is in: January 31, 2009

The Donn Handicap, Grade 1 at Gulfstream Park; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YOs and up.



Another interesting race at Gulfstream. I'm looking out my window at the winter wonderland that is my yard and I'm really wishing I would have made plans to go to the Donn. It will definitely be on my next year's resolutions list.

Albertus Maximus just looms large. Wearing Shadwell Royal Blue and being saddled by McLaughlin for the first time today, he'd be a no brainer if this was fake dirt, but it's not, its honest to goodness real Florida Terra firma and the 5 YO is an unimpressive 0-3 on the real thing. All that said, and this is class personified. A real heavyweight and he should win this, no matter the surface, but....I like Anak Nakal to win this race. Besides having a name I'll never even try to pronounce, I like the current form and the placing of this horse to sneak in at >8-1 and make some noise. I'm swinging for the fences that most people won't place in their top four in this race, but I think he has a legitimate shot.


Arson Squad and Einstein are two other serious contenders for the big money. I think Einstein will gather alot of money on him and he should go off as the chalk. An impressive win in the Clark just after Thanksgiving, and just solid steady work that is indicative of a well deserved vacation but also good health for the 7 YO. Safe bet, little risk, little reward.

Arson Squad is a heavy hype horse. Just 2 wins in last 11 starts. Prado/Duttrow combo clicks at 27% of the time and Duttrow is 26% on dirt and 25% coming off a >60 day layoff. Last two races were speed burners, but I betting he doesn't come back at the same form in his first race back.

I think Bullsbay and A.P. Arrow can make an exotic ticket pay big. I think both are capable of place or show, but I wouldn't predict the wire for either. Bullsbay is just a steady eddie and A.P. Arrow is all over the board. We'll see.

The Nomination is In: January 31, 2009

The Holy Bull, G3 at Gulfstream. 1 1/8 miles on Dirt for 3 YOs.



Interesting race to handicap. I see four real quality horses who should be solid graded stakes contenders, some mediocrity, and some quirky post positioning as well. It's hard not to like the expected chalk, Grade 3 winner West Side Bernie. He's been brought along slowly, but his work is sizzling and his speed is building each race out. Money will flow to him, and while a win bet isn't worth it, as a player in boxed exotics seems without question.

In the 9 and 11 post sandwiching West Side Bernie is Nowhere to Hide and Beethoven. Nowhere to Hide is similar to West Side Bernie, as he's at a new distance, but does he sizzle in works. Trainer Zito is 32% winner off last win starts. Garcia is up.

Beethoven, a Grade 2 winner, will have Borel up and will need a good trip from the far outside.

I can picture Danger to Society being there in the last few hops to the wire. Idol Maker needs to show me something and I'm not even sure I'm not ranking him too high as it is.

Little Turk's karate dojo (AKA Turk's Saturday handicapping safe harbor)was madness today for whatever reason. I have no real bet strategy right now except that I like the separation between what I see as the quality stakes contenders and the good allowance winners. With that type of separation I'm thinking exotic right now. As always, watch the board and judge your scorecard against value (unless you like to win Show money- Bless Mama Turk's heart).

How Good is Good Ba Ba?

Anecdotal observation is the best runners at one mile make the best sires. This American born gelding that races in Hong Kong won't get the chance to be bred to Better then Honour or her daughter, Rags to Riches, but wow what a foal they'd make.

Good Ba Ba won the Stewards Cup 1 Mile yesterday, cementing his position as the best in the world. Too bad the connections won't bring him to Dubai or the Breeder's Cup.

I'm posting his last two races. This first race was lost in last month's holiday hub-bub, the Cathay Hong Kong Mile on December 14th, 2008 (track record). Kip Deville was running strong in this race until he got lost in a turn.



and then yesterday, in Hong Kong, The Steward's Cup 1600 meters



Good Ba Ba's pedigree can be found at: http://www.pedigreequery.com/good+ba+ba

Post Race Analysis for Race Day January 24, 2009

The Turk didn't get much time with the Sunshine Millions yesterday, as occasionally Turk marital obligations must be reckoned with. Dinner, wine and board games with some neighbors took precedent. That prevented the California races from being analyzed very deeply, but I had plenty of time to mull over the two Florida races I handicapped with very mixed results.

Race 8: Gulfstream, The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf, 1 1/8 miles for 4 YOs and up.



No real surprises with Wild Promises. It was expected and predicted, so what do we do when we have such an overwhelming favorite who we believe will win? Well we can either sit on the sidelines or, in the Turk's case, try and find some longer odds to sneak in there for an exacta or tri.

I tied my boat to Zee Zee and Peach Flambe, the number 2 and 4 bettors favorites. Zee Zee menaced at the top of the stretch but she faded. Peach Flambe was a non factor. I discounted Elusive Lady's chances, but she ran a very good race with Alan Garcia up.

So what can we learn? Diving back into the PP, Elusive Lady's Trainer Kimmel has won 25% of the time in the second race back after a 180 day layoff. Not much to hang your hat on. I see a G3 winner who didn't win all last year. If I had to draw any conclusions, I always go back to current form is all that matters, and Elusive Lady and Julie Tuttle (with her own non descript PP)both raced in the past three weeks while the others were just getting their legs under them. I considered it while handicapping, but let it go. Everything is crystal clear the next day.

Race 10: Gulfstream, The Sunshine Millions Classic, 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YOs and up.



I thought Delightful Kiss would run well, but it was asking alot to win from the 12 spot. What I really am kicking myself on is It's a Bird. Going back to my red flair pen PP notes I had scribbled "Closer. Extra Distance from the 1 Mile Hal Hopeful will help. I noted a nice 38% trainer win rate on dirt and that the horse had won 3 of last 12". A :47 and 4/5ths 4f bullet five days earlier was not missed. I had a B on this horse and again, it's always more obvious afterwards. The whole point of disecting post race is to learn. It's a Bird ran well exactly three weeks earlier and ran two nice works afterward, indicative of health and good current form. Current form, current form, current form.

I was happy for Dry Martini, and I'm glad to see the gelding back in Tagg's barn. Macho Again had a bad trip and wasn't where he needed to be for the stretch. Atoned might be a good example of a long layoff horse that just wasn't ready to go mentally the first time the gate opened. Current form, and or lack of, is just as much mental as it is phyiscal.



I'm going to go through the exercise of working backward from the race charts back to the PP for Santa Anita's Race 8 and 9. I wasn't surprised to see Leah's Secret or Georgie Boy win, but I'm going to do a bit of school work and see if I can make sense of the order of finish from the chart back to the PP. I'll be posting those this week.

The Nominations Are In (Part 1: Florida): January 24, 2009

The Turk is a slow handicapping machine. I'm in sensory overload on days like today with the Sunshine Millions taking place in Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park. So many races, so many favorite horses running, what to do, where to start?

I'm going to start in Florida because it's in my time zone, and I'm going to handicap Race 8, the Filly and Mare Turf at 1 1/8 miles and Race 10, The Classic, at 1 1/8 on dirt (how novel).

Race 8: The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf, 1 1/8 miles, for F&M 4 YO and up, bred in CA or FLA.



I don't have a bet strategy yet, nor do I often share those anyway, as that's not what the Turk is about. I grade em', I put together likely orders of finish, and I make 5 minute to post betting decisions that look to maximize the ROI on my 2 bucks. I'm not a whale, more like a pretty good guppy. I digress.

I think Wild Promises is the class of this race. Without looking at the Morning Line, which Turk shuns, I think that this girl will go off at odds only a bridge jumper would love (or Mama Turk, but again I digress). One of my favorite angles when I do bet is to wait for races with such a money magnet like this and either a. hop the train and hit a low risk, ok reward multi horse bet or b. look for someone to beat the chalk at a big price. Both angles are fun for me, but I like the latter better because most of the time you'll swing for the fences and lose, but every now and then....

I'll be honest I don't see a way to beat Wild Promises yet. I think Zee Zee could. I never hold the poor animals to blame for thier trainers, and while I dislike Mr. Dutrow as a fan, as a dispassionate gambler I'm impressed by the tainer stats. The horse hasn't been a winner, but she's fresh and has worked steady and regular. I like the Albarado/Dutrow combo to perhaps win at >3.5 to 1.

Just a hunch, but Peach Flambe I think will run well and could go off >10-1.

And race 10, The Sunshine Millions Classic, 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YO and up bred in CA or FLA.



I could sing a slightly different tale of handicapper woe to you, but the Turk doesn't sing too well anyhow. I think this race has 5 legitimate horses who could take win or place and 8 of 12 who could argue for show money.

I don't think Delightful Kiss is starting in a good spot, and while I think the gelding is the best horse, I'm going to gamble against him winning. Instead, I'm looking for Atoned or Macho Again as likely winners, although Atoned seems more content to be second best in life. Tagg could have Dry Martini primed for a big race, but I like Hey Byrn as a legitimate longer odds horse and from left field I like Medzendeekron, owner of a 4f :45 and 2/5 and a 7f in 1:24 3/5's to maybe pull a shocker at >12-1. The trainer's turf to dirt is 23% but this horse is very unproven on dirt. I think it's worth a 2 buck flyer.