The Nomination is In (Part 2): Race Day February 28, 2009

Santa Anita, The GREAT RACE PLACE, race 9; The Sham, Grade 3: 1 1/8 Miles on Pro Ride, for 3 YOs. Ahhh, the mighty Sham, pride of California, with Pincay up, having the unfortunate luck of being born in the same year as Secretariat. He ends the race pictured here 31 lengths behind Big Red. Never forgotten here in Arcadia, nor should he be. Valiant in victory and proud in defeat.


With Baffert's Ventana scratching, The Turk sees a relatively weak field to push The Pamplemousse, a horse whose hype is building at least as quickly as his talent seems to be as well.

It's a Grade Three race, and I think there are some quality Grade 3 horses in this mix, but in my humble handicappers opinion, only The Pamplemousse is G1 quality.

I'm going to build my ticket with the heavy chalk at the top and I'm going to build several trifectas and exactas that hunt for value, all straight. I think the interesting wildcard is Trainer Pletcher's decision to run here instead of the Fountain of Youth at GP with Take the Points. J/T stats for Pletcher and Gomez at SA are 24%, offsetting the trainers so-so 17% synthetic rate. I don't know where to place this horse, so I'm taking the approach that he's a dirt runner who will vie for the lead and then get swallowed up in a Calvary charge in the stretch. I'm looking for Mr. Hot Stuff, Hi Flyin Indy and Mark S the Cooler to be in the mix.

The money will be spread around this field away from The Pamplemousse and exactas and trifectas will pay big. To paraphrase Danny Ocean, when you have a chance to beat the house, bet big. I may swing for the fences more then usual with this race. God forbid The Pamplemouse loses, the payouts will be big!

The Nominations Are In (Part 1): Race Day February 28, 2009

The Turk is looking at three Triple Crown prep races today, at three different tracks. First up is The Stymie Handicap at Aqueduct, run at 1 1/8 miles on the Inner Track Dirt for 3 YOs

As readers of the Turk know, I'm not advocating a betting strategy with my posts. Instead I am ordering the field based on how I view the most logical outcome. From my ordering of the field I will then look for value on the tote board and create my simple betting stategies which I place small amounts of money on. My arcane sense of excitement is winning regularly while betting little.

My biggest flaw as a handicapper is overlooking the obvious. I overlook track bias often as well as current form. Knowing this, I try to tweek my handicapping each week to compensate.

In the Stymie, it would be easy for me to overlook the current form of Barrier Reef , possibly ignore the lack of current form with Researcher, or overreach on a foreign invader like Real Merchant.

All that said, I am after all looking for value and I'm not interested in placing down two bucks on the chalk to show. I think there are a few horses, Manteca and Judith's Wild Rush in particular that could win at >8-1.

"Order the field and watch the tote" Mrs. Turk tells me I mumble that in my sleep. By the way, that is Stymie (pictured above) when he was at stud. He was the foal daddy of last week's feature, Rare Treat.

In the second race of my day, I'm looking at is at Gulfstream Park, Race 9, The Fountain of Youth Stakes, reimagined at 1 Mile on very fast dirt, for 3 YOs'.



This is a race that personifies what I was rambling about: There are numerous winners in this field, so if you do feel complelled to bet, find value. I am going to slightly discount Notonthesamepage, who has been drilling well but unraced since January 3rd.
I generally discount the outside posts at GP somewhat, but i'm looking for Capt. Candyman Can or Taqarub (pictured) from the 7 and 8 hole to play a promienent role in the race. 8 of the 401 Triple Crown nominees are here, this will be a barn burner, and with that hard dirt, I would expect a big BSF to come out of this as well.

And the last race for this afternoon, is Race 11 at Turfway Park, the John Battaglia Memorial, 1 1/16 mile on fake dirt for 3 YOs.. For the uninformed, John Battalia is the former general manager of the old Latonia Race Course, which is now known as Turfway Park.



A current betting angle is finding races with horses that I believe have a greater then 75% chance to win or place and filling the boxed ticket in around them. I think that is very possible here, a series of boxed trifectas or supers.


I'll be back in a few hours to look at The Sham at the Great Race Place

Post Race Analysis for Raceday February 21, 2009

Aqueduct Race 3: The Rare Treat 65K, 1 1/8 on inner dirt, for F&M 3 YO and up.


It was hard not to like the chalk, Weathered, and she didn't disappoint, leading from first call on. She won by 7 1/4 lengths and earned a big 45 cents on the dollar.

After Successful Sarah raced the day before, I slid Bourbon Maid up, and while having a good race, was no match for Aristo. Point Me To It finished as predicted fourth.

The Turk each week talks about what his bag is; Grading and ordering the field of finish from Past Performance and Trip Handicapping. Bet strategy is always secondary.

I mentioned Aristo in my prerace writeup as the only speed beside Weathered. Looking at the handicap in hindsight, I really missed on Aristo: She was coming off a win, had worked sharply, and was a 50% winner on the inner track. The six year old Mare had better current form then I credited her with.

While I didn't have a bet down, I would have lost because Aristo would not have been in my top four, as Rap Tale was rated by me still ahead of Aristo.

Aristo was the 5th favorite betting choice in a six horse field. If you had Aristo finishing for Place, good job!

Race 7 at Turf Paradise, The Turf Paradise Derby 100k, 1 1/16 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



Ye' old Turk had a pretty good read on this race as well, but this wasn't geniuses 'capping, just a field with a stratification gradient between classy Grade III and II potential and Allowance and Claimers.

The chalk, Mayor Marv, seemed completely unbeatable by this field to me, and he was. I credit Baffert for finding a dirt race for his Derby contender while at the same time collecting perhaps the easiest $100,000 this horse will ever earn. Hidden Bounty, who I expected to challenge for Show, was clearly the second best horse in this race. In my pre race line-up, I graded both Hidden Bounty and Pauper's Prince as A- horses, and when I grade even it's a toss up that leads me to a boxing bet situation. While I didn't bet on this race, I would have lost as I completely discounted Just Jebicah, who finished third.

Pre-race I said I thought Pauper's Prince, while a Triple Crown nominee, was vulnerable. All the horses here except Mayor Marv were stretching significantly in distance, and that creates chaos at the top of the stretch usually. At the 3/4 call, Pauper's Prince was in third, and in the stretch, the field reordered as expected.

I had three of the four for a boxed superfecta, but really it would have been more guessing the handicapping, so the conservative bettor in me passed.

Next week presents a much more exciting collection of Derby Prep's to preview. The Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park and The Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita will be very good races.

The Turk has already made his plans to attend Santa Anita on Santa Anita Derby day April 4th. I'd love to meet as many folks as I can that day, so drop me a line.

The Nomination Is In: February 21, 2009- The Turf Paradise Derby

The Turk likes to think at his advancing age he can still learn new tricks. Today's new trick is analyzing a race at Turf Paradise, a track I have avoided even thinking about for years, for no good reason other then it was in Arizona (no Arizona death threats please). I'm paying attention to the track now, and I have a trip to the area soon, so I'm going to go one step further and visit Turf Paradise (which the name is my idea of life after death- Note to terrorists: Offer me Turf Paradise and 5 virgins and you have a deal~ Just kidding, no death threats from JDC members).

There are two of the 401 Triple Crown nominees in this race, and if either get beat by this field, they should immediatly withdraw from the chase.



I like Mayor Marv. I'd like him better if he was in Florida or Oaklawn right now prepping, but at least he's on dirt. This son of Distorted Humor looks to easily be the class of this race. He's got speed and his work is very crisp. Baffert knows a bit about Derby preparation, far more then the Turk, so I think this horse if impressive today, will be in a big prep as a bit of an unknown quantity in 4 weeks or so.

Pauper's Prize, the other Triple Crown nominee is really stretching in distance today. I think he'll be there at the end, and Trainer Cerin must think so as well.

Another horse going much longer today is Hidden Bounty. A star at this track when the competition isn't so stiff, 5 wins in 8 starts at Turf Paradise and never out of the money. I don't think he can beat Mayor Marv, but Pauper's Prize is vunerable.

Every horse here will struggle with the distance except for Mayor Marv. A mad scramble for Place and Show may happen. That does present betting chaos, but such is life, stay on the sidelines when you don't think you have a reasonable shot.

For me, I'll watch the tote and the scratches and I'll place Mayor Marv on top and look for a value exacta as well as a few cheap straight superfecta chances.

The Nomination Is In: February 21, 2009- The Rare Treat 65K at Aqueduct

The Turk is an optimist. He always sees his bourbon glass half full (with ice cubes solid) and his cigar humidor is always a perfect 70% relative humidity (with a fine Cuban via Canada waiting for him).

Saturday's race number 3 at Aqueduct, The Rare Treat 65K, 1 1/8 miles on the inner dirt track for fillies and mares 3 YO and up, tests my optimism. Of the 7 entrants, a total of 32 starts between them on the inner track, with only 5 wins in the bunch. Aristo in the 2 post earned three of them. By the way, that handsome colt is Stymie, sire of Rare Treat, Dam of What A Treat.



I can't see how Weathered won't be the chalk. She earned three 90 plus Beyers in 2008, far outstripping the field. She's been training well since her last race in early January. The knock on her is she's been fading in races at 1 mile. Today's stretch to 1 1/8 should test her, but the works seem to be building her towards this.

John Terranova is really sporting some big trainer stats. He brings Successful Sarah, who was successful before Terranova took her over, into the three post. Not sure what form she's in but the horse is a winner on fast dirt tracks.

The Turk isn't a name bettor, but he likes Bourbon Maid for the name but also as a runner. 6 starts and 6 finishes in the money on fast dirt. Only 1 win in 10 starts lifetime. Violette's trainer stats are really ugh.

I don't have a betting strategy yet, but it seems to me my top two horses will finish in the money, so I may stick with what has been working for me and insert several other horses into the show spot on a tri ticket and see what happens. I'll be watching the tote to see where the value is on the middle part of my grading, but I think I have the top and bottom down pretty good.

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Update: The Turk doesn't like to handicap with the Morning Lines, just the weather report for the track. The other thing I sometimes miss is scratches. I saw in the PP that Sucessful Sarah was entered on the 20th but ignorned it until a few minutes ago. Yup, she raced.

The only thing it changes is my betting strategy. I will tentativly slide Bourbon Maid into place and Rap Tale into show and I'll watch the tote before making my final bet. Regardless of what I do, I'm sticking with Weathered to win and keying others to her.

Post Race Analysis for Raceday February 16, 2009

Oaklawn Park Race 9: Southwest Stakes Grade III; 1 mile on dirt for 3 YOs.

The Turk likes to wax poetic about learning and evolving as a horseplayer. Last night I wrote about being too conservative when I had a nice bet on the Dearly Precious at the Big A. It was a five horse race and I knew, as many others did, that my top three graded horses would finish in the top three, yet I was too conservative to place a creative bet and pocket an OK tri payout.

I'm still good with passing on the Dearly Precious bet. I'm a handicapper, but not a big bettor. My game is small bets, mid sized rewards, and I also believe strongly in the best bet is often the one you don't make. With all that said, with the size of the field today, and the number of quality horses that were going off at long odds, the light clicked on that I had a betting situation and I wondered how I would approach it.

Resetting the situation, I felt Old Fashioned was the best horse in this race, but I thought Silver City had a good chance based on current form. I graded them both A plus horses, and to me there was a good rift between these two and my next highest graded horse, Poltergeist.

This morning, while I handicapped the Southwest I thought there was a pretty good chance of a pretty good sized tri payout, especially if one of the longer odd horses rounded out the ticket. As a handicapper, even one as conservative as me, when you feel pretty good, you have to let it ride.

With my belief that the top two horses would finish 1-2 or 2-1, I decided to place a series of tri bets and hope for the best. It worked and paid $111 dollars.



Obviously my gamble isn't worth it if the third choice of the bettors finishes third. I took a chance, which isn't like me, but again, I felt pretty good. My blog isn't about betting theory or even betting strategy. I fancy myself a horse race analyzer who occasionally bets. Here's hoping I can keep my current very hot streak alive, but any horseplayer worth his red flair pen knows I'll run cold soon.

I'll order a few bourbons tomorrow on the airplane to celebrate.

The Nomination is in: February 16th, 2009

The Turk is very interested in the Southwest today at Oaklawn. 10 of the 401 Triple Crown nominees are present, which means someone has a chance to announce themselves as a real contender, but many more will be exposed as good horses who shouldn't be spoken of in the same breath as Triple Crown.



It seems to me that Silver City and Old Fashioned are the two best horses in this race. I believe, as many others do, that Old Fashioned is a special horse; Good at 2 YO but not rushed, allowed to be a horse for a long break after Thanksgiving, working steady and fast, and the absolute best Trainer working in North America right now, Larry Jones. Jones saddled 477 runners in 2008. It was too many for a trainer who believes in the traditional ways of doing things, the right way of doing things. For all those reasons, Old Fashioned is going to be fully prepared for the Derby, but maybe he's not at his absolute best today. The competition to garner the earnings in this era of fewer prep races must be intense. I think Old Fashioned could win this race even at 90% effort.

I think Silver City is a fine horse. The Unbridled's Song son may be a classic distance runner, but he'll have to prove himself at longer distances. William Calhoun, who saddled 866 runners in 2008, winning 26% of the time, including a gaudy 28% on dirt, 27% of last start winners and 26% off >31 day layoff, has been working Silver City in a mixture of 1 mile breezes and 4 and 5f bullets.

After the big two, there are some interesting horses running today that could take a real leap up in profile, including one I don't have the guts to pick too high, but I go hmmmmmm when I look at his run lines, Kick On. I don't like his post position, but he's working really well and fast. At 1 mile, with the speed he's been flashing, you never know, especially if the fractions get numbing. He's flashed early speed in his races but faded, so well see.

On an unrelated note, the Turk is now a Thorofan. After reading the news that Turk jock favorite Richard Migliore joined the fledgling group, I wanted to be a part of a grass roots organization like this that is about the fans and growing the sport. Thorofan should consider the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance as a strategic partner, providing a fan voice to the fan group.

For more information: www.thorofan.com