Keeneland in springtime. The beauty of the trees, the birds returning, the fake dirt warming up. Today's Grade I Vinery Madision, upgraded from G2 last year, looks to be a real interesting race. It's hard to see where the pace will come from, but it's contested by last year's champ, Ventura, who will be tested by at least three legitimate challengers, Bsharpsonata, Informed Decision and Bear Now. The other three contestants belong in graded stakes races, but I don't think they will figure in anything but exotics. Then again, without pace a big bunch of horses could be hopping along together in the final 1/16 Race 8 KEE: The Vinery Madison Grade I; 7F on fake dirt for F&M 4 YO and Up.
When you have an overwhelming chalk, you can use that to your advantage when fashioning exotic tickets. I see this race as a 3 sets of horses: Ventura, the middle group, and then the ramaining three horses that are all pretty similar, with Dubai Majesty getting a slight advantage from me for current form. I'll be watching the tote board, as well as the scratches, and we'll see if we can create a few straight bets that provide some value.
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