The Nomination Is In: The American Oaks G1 at Santa Anita

 

Skims

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, which remarkably is about to begin our 15th providing horse racing handicaps. The blog's focus is turf racing, generally 4 YO and up. For 14 years the title of my blog was The Turk: Horses, Handicapping and Hijinks, but we've dropped the Hijinks and added Hockey. Why hockey? It's my 1A sports love, along with horse racing. My point of view will be to write about my favorite team, The Buffalo Sabres, as they continue to build the organization from the lows they reached (longest playoff drought in league history). Anyways, lets get back to horse racing, opening day Santa Anita, and the marquee race of the day, The American Oaks G1.

As I said earlier, I like older horses, primarily because I like more information to work with for handicapping.  That said, these top flight 3 YO Fillies have plenty of experience on their past performances to work with.   I like to follow the 4 YOs through their season, watching the progression that the trainers take through the conditions book. Journeymen are Journeymen, but the special runners get treated special.  You never really know what the ceiling of a horse is until it reaches Grade 1 company.  Some fold and wither under the pressure, and some relish it.  I like the bigger fields that turf racing usually affords me, as the opportunity to find the underlay is omnipresent. Let's get after it!

15 Oct 2022 Aqueduct:  Sands Point Stakes G2: 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf

 

 Hard not to like Skims there, last time out.  3 Wins in 9 Turf Starts, 5 of 7 in the money in 2022.  Strong late turn of foot.  Checks the Class box.  Same race you also saw Pizza Bianca.  Not sure what to make of this 2021 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner.  Most of her efforts at 1 Mile.  I'm not sure her own connections have decoded her yet.  Talented enough, but a real wild card and with the stretch out, I'm not expecting much.

13 November 22 Aqueduct:  The Winter Memories $135K; 1 1/16 on Yielding Turf

The Chad Brown runner Salimah (Ire) looked like she really took to the yielding turf of Big A.  She does have two firm turf wins in her very limited racing sample size.  Prat up, and Brown/Prat are 30% winners overall with 200 races over a one rolling year.  

24 Nov 22 Del Mar:  The Red Carpet G3; 1 3/8 Mile Firm Turf.  

Bellstreet Bridie (GB) comes in fresh off an extra furlong  effort at Del Mar, drawing off easily.  9 of 10 in the money over grass, 5 of 6 in the money at this distance, and 9 of 10 in the money in 2022, with most of her efforts except the Red Carpet in UK.  Lots to like but small sample size in US.

I have a trio of runners rounding out my potentials.  Mise En Scene (GB) has very good early tactical speed.  Last out in the Breeders' Cup F&M Turf,  this is only second North American effort. Winless since August 2021.  Will draw betting capital, just not sure how wisely yet.  The three are rounded out by two honest runners, Rhea Moon (Ire) and Sparkle Blue.  Similar speed, similar Class jump, 3 turf wins each, slight advantage to D'Amato's Rhea Moon for 4 for 4 in the money Santa Anita.   

So what to do with this?  Bet it first of all, you want chaos and lots of betting interests to make the return worthwhile.  $2 Bet 7 OVER-9-5-8-1-2-6 for $12.  That's just my first thought, I'll be interested to see how the public views before placing bet.  I may even sign up for 9 Over 7-5-1-6 for $8. 

Have fun friends, Turk Out!