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| Irfan Khan/Los Angeles Times |
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, coming to you from the blizzard that is Western New York. I'm 56 years old, and the Blizzard of '77 to me was the worst storm I ever personally lived through. The Blizzard of '22 I think will end up being worse. The storm is massive, the winds are scary and loud, and I'm just praying my power stays on and that my neighbors, friends and family are all safe. The facilities I care for at work are being whacked, and I'm praying for my staff that they are safe in these terrible conditions.
I work long hours, something I've discussed here before. My job is all consuming and has decimated any semblance of work-life balance. That said, I signed up for this and I know what I need to do to make it get better, and that's simply training my staff into a top flight group. I've done it before and I'll do it again, but it takes time and patience. It's not dissimilar to handicapping. The skills to decipher the past performances and find winners takes time and patience. Over time your mind will spot patterns. Over time, archetypes will form around the distance, the surface, the trainers, class, and a series of other inputs into your handicapping model. While my job is really interfering with the time I need to work on my other passion, car restoration, I'm making time to handicap more. It's stress relieving, it keeps my mind fresh and clear, and it's something I can do while I bide my time and await the opportunity to pound on sheet metal again. I have no illusions that many people read these. Before Twitter, horse racing blogs had quite a bit of popularity. In the age of Twitter, and micro-blogging on social media, the long form blog, especially one that doesn't do a great job of attracting new fans, is tough sledding. That said, I do this for myself, I do it for my own enjoyment, and if anyone is reading this and enjoys it, I'm glad.
Let's get after it!
A seven horse field on the turf course is always a good way to jump back into Santa Anita Racing for me on opening day, and the San Gabriel G2 is a Boxing Day tradition for me. A bit later on the card is the Grade 1 American Oaks, always a premier kick off for the fillies who will be competing in this meet as 4 year old and Up.
The weather looks beautiful. I'd expect the track to be firm, but you can find the conditions here on race day.
Trainer Phillip D'Amato brings two solid contenders to this race, Masteroffoxhounds/2 and Prince Abama (Ire)/6. This is sixth straight Graded Stake for Masteroffoxhounds. D'Amato is looking for the right distance, winning at 1 1/4 Miles two back by a neck and nailed late at 1 1/16 last out. 6 of 6 in the money at SA, 11 of 20 in the money over turf, and off the board in two starts at the distance. Early speed should allow good tactical placement by Mike Smith, up. My tepid chalk.
Dicey Mo Chara (GB)/3 is an interesting gelded 4 YO for Trainer Powell who places J. Hernandez (31% together at SA) up. Also a regular Graded Stakes contestant, cutting back from a marathon distance last time out. Last win at this distance/on this track back in February, only win in 8 starts this year. Strong effort two back finishing with a Place to Masteroffoxhounds in G2 John Henry Turf at Santa Anita. Going to stay closer to the pace this time out and make Masteroffoxhounds work harder than he did there.
1 Oct 2022; John Henry Turf Championship G2; 1 1/4 Mile Firm Turf at SA
Prince Abama (IRE)/6 gets the nod here but its close to me with Bob and Jackie/5 and Rip City/1. I have them in that order, as Prince Abama, while winless in 5 starts at Santa Anita, winless at the distance, is 8 of 10 in the money over turf. A last time out winner at marathon distance. D'Amato/Prat have won 34% of time at SA over 1 rolling year in 87 starts. Could easily win this and I'll like a lot if 3rd best on Tote Board.
Bob and Jackie is stepping up in class and coming off a +180 Day Layoff, something Trainer Papaprodromou wins 19% of time. It's also first time going for the trainer, something he wins 19% of time as well. 1 win in last 10. 10 of 17 Win/Place over turf. Won by a nose in the 2021 edition of this race.
Perhaps the best pre-race value is Zip City, ML 10-1. 4 Wins in 9 SA starts and 7 of 9 in the money. 11 of 17 in the money over turf with 6 wins.
I feel pretty good (famous last words) tossing Go On/4 from my exact although the 4 YO Nyquist son has had some success at SA at shorter distances. I feel pretty good tossing Flashiest/7: winless in 7 starts in 2022, winless in 7 tries at distance. One win in 7 tries at SA.
That leaves 5 for the exacta. I think the tote board the the betting public will see this race like I'm seeing it. I would expect this to be a difficult race to recover my capital and make my ROI. If I end up playing it, it will be a straight $2 bet, 6 over 3.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
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