The Nomination Is In: The Jenny Wiley Grade 1 at KEE

Keeneland: Coady Photography

 Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, celebrating with zero fanfare both the recent milestone of making our 700 Blog Post and for 16 years of providing pretty darn good handicapping and bet construction to people who never asked for it.  I am the Turk, an almost 40 year handicapper who focuses on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction.  My handicapping style focuses on the analysis of DRF Formulator Past Performances (I pay for them, not an endorsement I just like them the best) and I compare Class, Early and Late Speed, Turf record, Track success, Distance record, Recency, Jock/Trainer Stats and recent works. I also try to understand the Trainer's motivation for placing their horse in that particular race.  I try to stay with dry/fast tracks and I try to make sure if I'm betting that the field is large and that I can identify some angle to approach the bet construction that avoids putting the top two horses on the tote board at post time into my ticket.  

            All that said, and today's race was a bummer for me. Three scratches taking the field to 6, and just not much of a betting angle I'm seeing. Lets jump right into it!

The Jenny Wiley G1: 1 1/16 Miles on Turf for 4 YO and UP F&M.  

7-5 ML (41.7% Win Odds) for In Italian (GB).  Huge early speed, and with the three scratches, as well as her inside positioning, I am anticipating a wire to wire win.  

If you are compelled to bet, single In Italian (GB) and look for value for the Place position.  I'm going to look for Speak of the Devil (FR): Best late speed in the field and decent tactical speed, the 6 YO Mare is well traveled, trained by Brown with Prat, up.  Jumping in class and adding distance.  White Frost is another to look for.  Mott trained, training well, late speed, 5 of 5 on turf and success at the distance.  Neither of these two are the in the Class of In Italian (GB) or a few others, but they only have to get to second and the value will be there.  

With the Moonlight (Ire) and Queen Goddess are very serious contenders.  They are better than my Place Selections by a lot as well, but this is bet construction not handicapping.  

You could go contrarian and assemble With the Moonlight (IRE) over In Italian (GB), White Frost and Speak of the Devil (FR), a $2 Bet for $6.  I like the value and the risk-reward elements.

I apologize, sometimes you are just wasting time handicapping and you just need to assemble a value bet.  Time is money at the track. 

 Have fun friends, Turk out!