Post Race Analysis of the Colonial (err Arlington) Million.

Fort Washington Over Grand Sonata and Integration

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog.  Remember, this is a no brag zone, but it's not bragging to say I've been fire over the grass with the exacta's, taking down favorites left and right.  My no favorite Exacta Bet cost $18 but paid $88.  These are the bets that drive ROI for the horseplayer.

Again, another race with a better than even money favorite fell to Show.  60%  of the time the favorites lose.  It's an angle I love to exploit.  I do everything in my power to avoid bias in my handicapping and betting.  The pretty girls on FanDuel TV can be compelling, the ex-Jock can be compelling, but its all bias.  I find I'm more successful not knowing if the horse is named after someone who's sick or died, or a feel good  news item about the connections.  I'm human and I love a good human interest story (I cried a lot about the story behind Cody's Wish- but I still bet against him!) just not if it brings bias to me.  Anyways, looking at a wide sample size we ask ChatGPT  how often the favorite Wins-Places or Shows.

For turf racing only in the U.S., the numbers for post-time favorites shift slightly lower than Dirt because:

• Turf races often have larger fields and more competitive entries than dirt races.

• Pace dynamics can create more upsets, but the favorite still performs strongly.

📊 Typical U.S. turf racing averages (compiled from multi-year Equibase & DRF summaries):

• Win: ~33–34%

• Place (1st or 2nd): ~55–57%

• Show (1st, 2nd, or 3rd): ~71–73%

That means favorites on turf finish in the top two a little more than half the time, slightly less than the overall racing average (≈58–60%).

9 August 2025; Cnl; The Arlington Million G1 on Firm Turf.

With all due respect, Mystik Dan didn't deserve $3.7-1 odds.  He's done nothing on Turf and for a $4.5 MM lifetime winner, looks washed at Grade 1 level.  An emotionless gambler needs to look for these angles, over bet name recognition horses.  I think Integration is a good horse, a horse for the course, but he's not Secretariat!  Those odds were too short at $0.6-1.  

I said I didn't think Vesting (Ire) scratch meant anything to the pace, and it didn't.  I liked Cairo but he was so wet in his shoulders I was not shocked how he flattened.  Time Song and Runaway Storm are still running and I rightly tossed them.  That left Fort Washington and Grand Sonata, both of whom I thought were overlooked and in great form.   

  Keep handicapping, keep looking for the patterns that repeat over and over and over.  As your handicapping improves, your bet construction will improve. 

A simple bet construction I offered up prerace paid $88 on an $18 bet.  I had the superfecta in my handicap as well, but that's a drug I avoid these days! 

Turk Out!