Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I handicap (mostly) older horses, (mostly) running over routes of grass and I build exactas (almost always) from the information. I believe in the following core principles: Last speed is better than early (mostly), Older Horses give you more data and more predictability (mostly), Class matters (almost always), bet against favorites (60% of the time they lose) (almost always), build a base handicap that isn't your bet but is the best horses with best chance to win (everytime), build and adjust odds so you can compare to fair odds table (always), have fun, don't take yourself too seriously, and stay humble (forever).
Now that I bared my soul to you, let me say I hate that they call these races Arlington anything. Arlington, to me, the most beautiful track, with an incredible turf course, that truly attracted top European talent, was destroyed by greed and the poor leadership within the track ownership community. Don't insult my intelligence with this BS. While I'm happy they actually have a purse of $1.0 MM still, remember in 1981 dollars when this race started, that $1.0 MM is now worth $3.54 MM. The race hasn't progressed and that's why, along with other reasons, it's a poor excuse of a G1. That's The Turk's two cents, I generally don't get into such weighty subjects, but there you go.
My son and I made many trips to Arlington over the last decade. Those are memories I will always cherish. I've told my backstory and my connection to the Arlington fire of 1985 before and you can find it in this link. This track closure hurt because it was done because of terrible state leadership and the pursuit of slot revenue, terrible track ownership and apathy. When you lose the good things in life they seldom come back.
Anyways, lets get back to the handicapping. I've been experimenting with AI lately. While very rudimentary, I upload the PDF of the Past Performance to ChatGPT and build charts of data I like to see and compile generally by hand (Tomlinsons, Beyers, Early and Late Timeform, Class by number of Stakes Wins). It speeds things up for me. Next I will figure out how to automate to make the process quicker and repeatable. I'd love to incorporate more API data into what I do but I won't pay the crazy prices for DataStream access the monopolies over this sport demand. If anyone has an idea and wants to collaborate, let me know.
The weather should be dry and hot so assume Firm Turf. Colonial Downs is a fairly lame website, look for scratches and changes and track condition here.
8 June 2025; SAR; The Manhattan G1; 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf
19 July 2025; Mth; The United Nations G2; 1 3/8 Miles on firm Turf
17 May 2025; Pim; The Dinner Party G3; 1 1/8 miles on Good Turf.
17 June 2025; Ascot (GB); The Queen Anne Stakes G1; 1 Mile on "Good to Firm" turf.
What to do with all of this? I like Integration a lot here: 9 of 14 in Turf Exactas, 4 of 4 in Colonial Exactas. Training very sharply over turf at Saratoga including a bullet :46 4/5ths at 4f with 51 others that day. Feels right with a 5 YO son of Quality Road running well in Virginia. Mr. Evans smiles.
I'm going to bet that he finishes no better than Place. Fort Washington, Cairo and Grand Sonata OVER Fort Washington, Cairo, Grand Sonata and Integration, a $2 exacta for $18.
Sometimes the best bet is the one you don't make. Vesting, who I didn't think could possibly win, just scratched. a seven horse race now, and Vesting leaving doesn't change the pace consideration for me (poor early speed, mid late).
If anything I'm less inclined to bet $18. Try Fort Washington, Cairo and Grand Sonata OVER Integration, a $2 Bet for $6. Mid value/low risk.
I don't love this race, gamble wisely.
Turk Out!
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