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| Fierceness opening in The Alysheba |
I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan as always for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today. You can find my work at my new Facebook Page as well as a new Twitter/X handle, or just come to my blog. Thank you.
Let's just dive right in. I'm only highlighting two videos today, Mindframe's Stephen Foster Handicap win and Fierceness at The Alysheba. I could have kept going but something like the Met Mile, run in slop, just isn't that relevant.
28 June 2025; Stephen Foster Handicap G1 at CD: 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt
2 May 2025; The Alysheba Stakes G2 at CD: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt (Track Record for Fierceness)
I generally don't get that hung up on stats such as post time favorites who win, but as this shows below, two turn dirt races at Saratoga are kinder to chalk than the moniker of "graveyards of favorites" would have you believe. There is also difficult odds with deep closers .
I define deep closers as I'm handicapping by subtracting Timeform US Pace Late from Early. Anything greater than 50 points and I consider that a deep closer. For example today, Sierra Leone has Early of 62, a Late of 132, a +70 differential. You can see it in the running lines. Because of the placement of the gate right before the first turn, Sierra Leone will fall further back tactically and will need a pace collapse to rally against. My identified deep closers also includes Disarm and Post Time.
Outside posts, like most tracks, will have lower odds. Quality horses defy those odds. For no particular reason, I give you 2008's Kentucky Derby and Big Brown (rest in peace Eight Belles).
Some facts to nibble on regarding Saratoga (with sources linked below):
- Among all two‑turn dirt races at Saratoga, the completion‐of‐the‐distance (post time favorites) win rate is around 42.8%. (1)
- In those races, the majority of winners tend to be either early speed horses (pacesetters) or trackers/stalkers, while true deep closers have notably less success, especially on the main track—closing types rarely prevail unless the pace collapses. (2)
- Wire‑to‑wire/front‑runner winners likely account for roughly 30–40% of wins at this distance, depending on pace.
- Closers probably win in the low‑teens percentage, especially on main‑track routes.
- Stalkers/pressers dominate many of the remaining races. (2) (3)
- The starting gate for 9‑furlong dirt races at Saratoga is positioned just before the first turn, which gives inside posts (1–4) a meaningful advantage if the horse has early speed, as they can secure a favorable position before the turn. (4)
- Historically, the inside four posts have shown a slight edge in win percentage in Saratoga two‑turn dirt races (i.e. at the 9 furlong distance). (5)
- Races from posts 8 and wider have been statistically disadvantaged: in one analyzed sample, horses drawn from post positions 8 and outward combined to be 1‑for‑31 in victories, roughly ~3% win rate from those wide posts. (5)
- That leaves middle posts (5–7) winning a substantial share of races, sometimes outperforming expectations or at least compensating for favoritism bias. (5)
- If drawn post 1–3 in a 9‑furlong dirt route at Saratoga: your horse has historically enjoyed a ~50–55% chance of being the winner.
- Drawing post 4–6 still offers a solid ~10–12% win rate, reflective of middle-post performance.
- Posts 7 onward yield drastically lower success rates—typically <5% per post—mainly due to early turn dynamics and shorter run to the first bend. (6)
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