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| Cleopatra's Strike (Benoit Photo) |
I generally take a handicappers holiday from Breeders' Cup until sometime in mid March each year, as I'm not much of a 'Road to the Kentucky Derby' fella anyway. I like the turf runners and I like the 4 year old and up group. All that said and I took what was essentially a handicappers holiday that lasted the better part of a year. This sport, to anyone who plays it, wears you down. From the appalling number of racetrack fatalities to the greed and actions of a few who prioritize their own profits over the livelihood of the sport in general (I'm looking at you CDI), it wears me down. I love the horses, I love the backside and the trainers and connections to feed this sport its life, and ultimately, I love to analyze the races and occasionally wager on my skill at doing this. As long as there is horse racing, and as long as I'm breathing, there will be a Turk handicapping and blogging, and yes, that's a threat.
Let's kick off 2020 with a group of four year old and older runners over a route of grass, The San Gabriel at Santa Anita.
Early season you end up with a mix of horses in very different places in their condition. That creates uncertainty as to what the trainers intentions are in this race, as you have to ask is this a 2nd effort off a freshening and the season is ready to go or is the trainer shaking some dust off and is content with using the race as a glorified workout. It might be a Grade 2 race but you also have to really question, are these grade 2 quality turf runners or a hodgepodge of available legs to fill out an early January card. There is a reason I'm normally slumbering at this time of the year, too much uncertainty in the horses and trainer's intent.
There is only one real video I'm interested in watching prior to analyzing, the 1 1/2 mile Hollywood Turf Cup G2 at Del Mar in early December. The race had a solid field, much better than here and contained the 2-3-4 horse from today's field.
1 Dec 2019 Del Mar; 1 1/2 Mile Firm Turf Hollywood Turf Cup G2
Ok I lied, one more video....Majestic Eagle willingly yet just out of the money.
30 November 2019 Del Mar; 1 1/16 Good Turf Seabiscuit Handicap G2
I can't say I'm enamored with the field or the betting potential of this race. I like to complete the handicap, the base handicap, and then consider what would make this a bet worth making. What is a "bet worth making?" If you are in this game you have learned magic over time, a trick called "how to turn a big pile of money into a smaller pile of money." That's clearly a magic trick you want to avoid. What is your "Opportunity Cost?" Financial types describe opportunity cost as the loss of potential gains from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen. Without an MBA, this simply means if I invest in Race 8 at SA and I lose my investment, what did I lose by not investing in Race 8 at Gulfstream or Fair Grounds? Most people are not betting (investing) the way most of the betting advice books are written: Bet same amounts or percentage of your betting capital consistently across all the races over time. Most bettors in my opinion are on again/off again. Speaking for myself, I bet just a handful of races per week and I look at the opportunities that present themselves and try to find the opportunity that represents the best chance to make the most money. When I say this race isn't worth betting I mean I have no real overlays of significance and I expect the betting public to see the race exactly as I do. You can see in the Column labeled ML or Morning Line, I pretty much have them ranked per Morning Line. (I handicap and set my base handicap BEFORE I look at Morning Lines. I find that the ML adds a bias to my thinking that I don't want to have. That's a discussion for another day.) Where will the value come from? It will come from a) not over betting and b) a bit of a price in the mix.
As always watch the turf conditions and the scratches and changes, and by all means don't rush in a bet, study the tote board and see where the public is pegging a horse. Funny things happen at the race track and lines can move and suddenly an overlay presents itself.
From a base handicap perspective I like Cleopatra's Strike. The 7 YO gelded son of Smart Strike is Canadian bred and trained by Phillip D'Amato. Cutting back in distance,, 2nd off a layoff. A solid G2 win at SA at 1 1/4 in late September. 2 of 2 in the money at SA, 10 of 18 in the money lifetime on Turf and 3 of 4 in the money as a 6 YO.
I like Desert Stone (Ire) a bit more than Majestic Eagle but it's a tiny bit. Desert Stone is racing in 8th straight graded stakes with one place and two shows. 5 of 8 in the money at SA, 6 of 15 in the money over turf with a low Tomlinson of 273. 1 win in 4 starts at the distance. The trainer Baltas with 29% off +180 day layoff (off since late May 2019). Late turn of foot good and stretching out from normal mile distance. I suspect he may drop to 5-1 from 3-1 ML. Majestic Eagle also off 45-180 day layoff, something Trainer Drysdale wins only 6% of the time. 5 Places in 10 SA starts. 8 of 17 Win-Places over turf lifetime. 33% winner in 6 starts at distance. Drysdale/Bejarano 40% winners at SA in a small sample size.
Overdue and Chosen Vessel represent possibly the best value you will find on the board. Overdue is 4 YO gelding with Mike Smith up for trainer D'Amato. Cutting back from 1 1/2 miles his last win was at this distance at this track in early October. 6-1 ML, could slip to 7 or 8 to 1. Class test. Chosen Vessel has similar class issue. First start at the distance. Trainer Dollase winless last calendar year in graded stakes, trying only 3 times. Flat running style.
I'm discounting Acker completly. North County Guy I could easily lump in with Overdue and Chosen Vessel BUT you can't cover everybody.
My initial thoughts is to place a $10 win bet on Overdue as well as bet Overdue above Cleopatra's Strike, Desert Stone and Majestic Eagle, a $2 Exacta for $6. $16 total investment.
We'll see how I feel after watching the tote board tomorrow. This only works if I'm getting better value than 6-1 on Overdue.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
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