The Nomination Is In: The Del Mar Oaks G1

Hand ride for Thought Process G2 San Clemente

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I usually specialize in handicapping older horses running over a route of grass, with which I turn into exacta bets.  Simple premise.  Today I'm handicapping the Del Mar Oaks, and while only 3 YOs, I don like to get some looks at the next up and comers.  My issue with the younger horses is they lack data.  The more information as a handicapper you have, the better.  With younger horses I modify my key angles slightly and I focus on class, wins at the distance, wins at the track, trainer intentions.  27 wins combined for the 11 starters.  3 Graded Stakes Wins.  Best late speed is Edge of Mali (IRE) at 107 followed by Firenze Flavor at 102.  Best early speed is Thought Process at 116 and the next closest is Slick (Ire) at 97.  Slick (Ire) and Lush Lips have the best Turf Tomlinson's in mid 380's while Striver is best Distance Tomlinson at 409.  

Let's take a look at Thought Process and her dominant win in the one mile San Clemente.  Don't underestimate the power of the extra 660 feet today, but no one was catching her on this day. 

19 July 2025:  Dmr; The San Clemente G2;  1 Mile over Firm Turf

Casalu gave good chase running well past his Turf and Distance Tomlinson's.  Tomlison's have thier place, especially in these younger horses. 

Tomlinson Numbers were created by pedigree experts Leon Rasmussen and Leon Tomlinson in the 1970s and 1980s. They were designed to give horseplayers a quick numerical measure of how a horse’s breeding suggests it will perform under certain racing conditions such as turf, dirt, distance, or wet tracks.

The numbers are calculated from pedigree data. They look at how successful a horse’s ancestors—particularly the sire and dam—have been under a given condition. This produces a three-digit figure, where higher numbers mean the pedigree shows more strength for that surface or distance. For example, a turf Tomlinson of 380 or higher suggests strong turf ability in the pedigree, while a 250 would suggest little turf influence.

The Daily Racing Form began including Tomlinson Numbers in Past Performances in 1991. They quickly became popular with bettors because they help answer unknown questions, such as whether a horse trying turf for the first time might be bred for it, or whether a sprinter stretching out in distance may have the stamina in its bloodlines. They are especially useful for first-time starters, surface switches, and stretch-outs.

There are limits to Tomlinson Numbers. They do not measure actual ability, fitness, or class—only what the pedigree suggests. A horse with a high Tomlinson may still run poorly, and a horse with a low one may still succeed if its individual talent or training outweighs its bloodlines.

Remember what we are trying to do here, two separate tasks:

• Handicap (place in order) who should win.  
• Exacta Bet:  Who can beat my top win candidate who might finish in second.

That's how I look at the races.  I'm not a fan boy (although I do love the horses and I have my favorites) but I am a degenerate (not really) gambler who is trying to beat the track with highly slanted odds in the house's direction.  You don't do that betting chalk.  You also don't do that when you don't think anyone can beat the chalk.  I don't see Thought Process as unbeatable, it's her 8th start, she's won 5 , 3 of 4 at Del Mar, 5 of 6 on Turf, bullet work at 5f.  That's impressive, but we want to beat her.  The Tomlinson's coupled with other information from race charts and past performances, plus video, informs me of who might.

Let's get after it!

The turf will be Firm with low chance of rain.  You'll find scratches and changes here.

Dmr; The Del Mar Oaks G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf

 

Thought Process, shouldn't be pressed to hard early, and she should bein the lead without too much effort.  Can she hold on? 660 feet.  1 extra furlong. I'm looking at the group of Firenze Flavor, Casalu, Lush Lips (GB) and Will Then to challenge early and late.  I like the two, Firenze Flavor and Casalu to win with Thought Process, Lush Lips or Will Then to Place.  8/9 OVER 8/9/10/5/7 a $2 Bet for $16.  

I said it, I think they will catch Thought Process.  Am I convinced, not really, but that's my angle.  If you believe in the horse, then switch gears and add some of the longer odd deep closers to the place position, single Thought Process OVER Firenze Flavor and Will Then, a $2 Exacta for $4.  Not a bad play.  

Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!