Post Race Review with Video: The Del Mar Oaks G1

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on turf runners and exacta betting.  

Know Thy Self!  I should know to avoid 3 YOs.  My ROI tells me to avoid them, but I do like getting a feel for the next crop of up and comers.  Why do I avoid 3 YO's?  So much uncertainty and so little actual performance that can be quantified.  

Velocity.  I noted the last race at Dmr, a 1 1/16 that she rallied off of to finish late.  I also noted the 75 Beyer, the fact it was her fourth start, her only graded stakes start, a G3, she faltered at 6.5f, I noted the distance Tomlinson was 3rd best, and her post position of 3 wins quite a bit of turf races at this distance since 2022 (2nd most behind Post 4).  I thought she had a legitimate chance to finish top 3, but win a Grade 1.  Didn't see that coming BUT the breadcrumbs were there for those with better eyes.  Hard to dislike the 35-1 odds on a high class, last time winner at Dmr.  

Things we got right?  Didn't believe Thought Process deserved being bet down that low and also didn't believe a front runner could run on an extra 660 feet against this field.  Got that right.

Believed in Lush Lips (GB).  Again shows the frivolity of looking at Morning Lines, as the betting public got all the dogs right and bet Lush Lips down hard.  9th start for the shipper who had at least a track record of graded stakes competitiveness, losing twice to the same day Saratoga Alabama G1  winner, Nitrogen. Dirt and Turf Graded Stakes winner Nitrogen is impressive BTW.  I have to think savvy gamblers looked at that Alabama result 3 hours earlier and rethought Lush Lips (GB).

My gamble was on Firenze Flavor.  Too far back and maybe needs more distance.  Too big a stretch for me.  

It's ok not to win.  Learn something from every race and every handicap.  Patterns repeat, look for them.  I've been doing this a very long time and I'm still learning. 

Also, what a great ride Jock R. Gonzalez for Trainer M. McCarthy.  he saved ground the whole way and when the rail opened, he threaded a needle and took it.  

16 August 2025; Del Mar Oaks G1;  1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf.